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伊丽莎白·沃伦在2020年关键州超过乔·拜登:新民意测验

2019-11-08 08:57   美国新闻网   - 

根据最近的报道,参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦在关键的战场州密歇根州、宾夕法尼亚州和威斯康星州已经超过了对手乔·拜登投票凯泽基金会和库克政治报告,一份包含选举分析的每日时事通讯。

在3000多名登记选民中,沃伦似乎是专家称之为“民主蓝墙”的四个州的首选,这是中西部上城区一个历史上蓝色的地区,唐纳德·特朗普在2016年大选中大部分时间都是红色的。

据5月38日的报道,沃伦的民调平均水平在最近几周已经稳定下来,在截至11月6日的全国平均水平上落后于前美国副总统。但是凯撒和CPR最近的报告显示沃伦在拥有犹豫不决的选民的高度渴望的州的当选能力。

根据最近的调查,沃伦在这些数字之前在密歇根州、宾夕法尼亚州和威斯康星州落后于拜登爱默生民意测验,富兰克林马歇尔学院和马奎特大学法学院分别是。据报道,她已经在明尼苏达州击败了特朗普投票由明星论坛报上个月。

 

 

Warren Besting Biden in Battleground States

 

民主党总统候选人参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦11月2日在爱荷华州杜布克的亨普斯特德高中竞选时对来宾讲话。沃伦在一些传统的蓝色州领导前副总统乔·拜登,这些州在2016年支持唐纳德·特朗普。

根据今天的民意调查,2016年,密歇根州近30年来首次出现赤字,但五分之一的受访者表示击败特朗普是他们在2020年投票的首要动机。十分之四的初选选民选择沃伦作为他们在民主党候选人中的第一选择——比拜登多6%——而大约43%的人将她视为他们的第一或第二选择。

摇摆州宾夕法尼亚的主要选民在上次选举中勉强选出特朗普,他们更喜欢拜登(27%)而不是沃伦(18%)作为他们的第一选择,但沃伦在选民的第一或第二选择(37%)中名列前茅。民调显示,约22%的人希望明年11月击败特朗普,大多数人不赞成总统处理大多数国家事务。

沃伦击败拜登成为威斯康星州选民的首选30年。他们在经济上大体上意见分歧,但大多不赞成特朗普在贸易、移民、医疗保健和外交政策方面的记录。将近五分之一的选民表示击败特朗普是他们的头等大事。

明尼苏达州的初选选民在民主党提名人中支持沃伦(25%)多于拜登(15%),但总的来说只有18%的选民说他们的首要任务是击败特朗普。据报道,民主党人在2016年以46.4%的选票支持希拉里·克林顿在明尼苏达州获胜数据编译者纽约时报。

这四个州都有很多摇摆不定的选民。接受调查的密歇根选民中有高达43%的人说他们是摇摆不定的选民。其中,三分之一的人打算投票给民主党候选人,而21%的人表示他们“肯定”会投票给特朗普。其他被调查的州也有类似的细分,明尼苏达州摇摆选民对总统的支持率为24%。

与上次选举相似,医疗保健和经济似乎是这些州选民的头等大事。总的来说,特朗普在经济表现上得分不错,但更大比例的选民“不赞成”他处理医疗保健的方式,而不是“赞成”。在医疗保健问题上,许多人表示,降低尽可能多的美国人的处方成本应该是明年国会的首要任务。

 

ELIZABETH WARREN SURPASSES JOE BIDEN IN KEY 2020 STATES: NEW POLL

Senator Elizabeth Warren has surpassed rival Joe Biden in key battleground states Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to recent polling by the Kaiser Foundation and the Cook Political Report (CPR), a daily newsletter with election analysis.

Among more than 3,000 registered voters, Warren seems to be the top choice in four states that experts call the "Democratic Blue Wall," a historically blue area of the Upper Midwest that largely went red for Donald Trump in the general election of 2016.

Warren's poll averages have plateaued in recent weeks, trailing the former U.S. vice president in national averages as of November 6, according to reporting by FiveThirtyEight. But the recent report by Kaiser and CPR demonstrates Warren's electability in highly coveted states ripe with undecided voters.

Warren trailed Biden in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin prior to these numbers, according to recent surveys by Emerson Polling, Franklin & Marshall College and Marquette University Law School, respectively. She already topped him against Trump in Minnesota, according to polling by the Star Tribune last month.

 

 

Warren Besting Biden in Battleground States

 

Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Elizabeth Warren speaks to guests during a campaign stop at Hempstead High School on November 2, in Dubuque, Iowa. Warren leads former Vice President Joe Biden in some traditionally blue states that went for Donald Trump in 2016.

In 2016, Michigan turned red for the first time in nearly three decades, but one in five surveyed say defeating Trump is their top motivation to vote in 2020, according to today's poll. Four in 10 primary voters pick Warren as their first choice among Democratic candidates—that's about 6 percent more than Biden—while about 43 percent see her as their first or second choice.

Primary voters in Pennsylvania, a swing state that narrowly elected Trump last election, prefer Biden (27 percent) to Warren (18 percent) as their first choice, but Warren came out on top for voters' first or second choice (37 percent). About 22 percent want to defeat Trump come next November, and a majority disapprove of the president's handling of most national issues, according to the poll.

Warren bests Biden as Wisconsin voters' first choice after the state went red in 2016 for the first time in more than 30 years. They're largely split on the economy, but mostly disapprove of Trump's record on trade, immigration, health care and foreign policy. Nearly one in five voters say defeating Trump is their top priority.

Minnesota primary voters largely support Warren (25 percent) over Biden (15 percent) for their first choice among Democratic nominees, but only 18 percent of voters in general say their top priority is to defeat Trump. Democrats held Minnesota in 2016 with 46.4 percent voting for Hillary Clinton, according to data compiled by The New York Times.

Swing voters abound in each of these four states. A whopping 43 percent of Michigan voters surveyed say they're swing voters. Among them, a third intend to vote for the Democratic nominee, while 21 percent said they're "definitely" going to vote for Trump. There are similar breakdowns in the other states surveyed, with Minnesota swing voters demonstrating the strongest support for the president at 24 percent.

Similar to the last election, health care and the economy seem to be at the top of the minds for voters in these states. Overall, Trump gets OK scores on the economy's performance, but a larger share of voters "disapprove" than "approve" of the way he's handling health care. Among health care issues, many said lowering prescription costs for as many Americans as possible should be a top priority for Congress next year.

 

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