日本已经与其最高盟友美国决裂，试图在东京试图平衡与华盛顿和德黑兰的关系时避免激怒伊朗。

新任命的日本防卫大臣河野太郎周三在新闻发布会上表示，日本“不知道任何指向伊朗的信息”是周六袭击沙特阿拉伯阿布盖克石油加工厂和胡拉斯油田的幕后黑手。相反，这位前最高外交官辩称，“我们认为胡塞是根据声称对此负责的声明实施袭击的。”

也门扎伊迪什叶派穆斯林运动，又称安萨尔·阿拉，自2015年以来一直在与沙特领导的联盟作战，并在北部边境发动了多次袭击，但没有一次袭击深入到其境内。尽管利雅得长期以来一直指责德黑兰直接支持胡塞武装，但沙特国防部周三辩称，最近的袭击来自北部，同时坚称确切的发射地点仍不得而知。

美国方面已经暗示伊朗，美国国务卿麦克·庞贝称这些袭击是“战争行为”，因为地区紧张局势继续爆发。就在唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)总统的政府呼吁国际社会支持遏制伊斯兰共和国之际，日本一直试图避免卷入一场可能考验其宪法限制、破坏将该国标榜为全球和平缔造者的运动的潜在斗争。

上个月标志着伊朗和日本建立关系90周年，尽管20世纪两国经历了巨大的政治变革，但它们在当今时代保持着正常的关系。日本是2015年伊朗和美国达成的核协议的支持者，与中国、欧盟、法国、德国、俄罗斯和英国一样，尽管特朗普去年退出，但日本和其他签署国一样，继续支持该协议。

美国单方面退出和随后的制裁迫使日本减少伊朗石油进口，但东京方面一直寻求发挥积极作用，有可能让华盛顿和德黑兰再次走到一起。随着波斯湾动荡的加剧，日本首相安倍晋三对伊朗进行了历史性的访问希望能在“该地区的和平与稳定中发挥尽可能大的作用”

安倍抵达德黑兰时，特朗普似乎否认了日本领导人正在向伊朗总统哈桑·鲁哈尼或最高领导人阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊传递信息的猜测。总统在推特上写道:“虽然我非常感谢安倍下午去伊朗会见阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊，但我个人觉得现在考虑达成协议还为时过早。他们没有准备好，我们也没有！”

安倍受到热烈欢迎，成为自1979年伊斯兰革命以来首位访问伊朗的日本领导人。这场革命推翻了西方支持的君主制，并迎来了一个对外国影响持怀疑态度的什叶派穆斯林神权政治。然而，在他提出外交理由时，他的访问被阿曼湾一个月内发生的第二系列油轮袭击蒙上了阴影。

这一次，无人认领的破坏行动的目标船只中有一艘悬挂巴拿马国旗、日本所有的船只，从沙特阿拉伯向新加坡运送甲醇。美国迅速指责伊朗精英革命卫队，声称他们对这艘船使用了limpet地雷。这艘船的日本船东反驳了这一说法争论船员看到了飞行物体在攻击之前。

日本政府本身要求提供进一步证据证明伊朗是这起事件的幕后黑手，当华盛顿呼吁建立多边海上安全倡议在波斯湾巡逻时，东京保持沉默。从那以后，只有澳大利亚、巴林、英国以及最近的阿拉伯联合酋长国加入了进来。

被称为自卫队的日本军方传统上远离作战行动，因为日本宪法只为军方规定了极其有限的角色，即使在2014年重新解释和2015年新的国防指导方针之后，海外行动的空间也很小。在与一个以快速、不可预测的发展著称的地区打交道时，这些举措尤其危险。

“中东和巴尔干半岛据说是世界的火药桶，”日本前国防部长中谷根告诉记者新闻周刊。“如果日本介入这一地区，事情可能会变得非常复杂，因此日本在采取行动时需要非常小心。”

“我认为日本政府不会参与这项倡议，但我个人认为日本应该派遣自卫队，以便日本能够保护自己的船只，”他补充道。

笹川和平基金会的高级研究员Ohara Bonji告诉记者新闻周刊“日本社会不会接受在中东如此轻易地进行这种军事行动，但它可能会利用国际社会维持和平的框架。”他说，“自卫队可以在战场之外行动，比如补给补给、后勤和搜救”，并建议日本可以通过“派遣船只到霍尔木兹海峡之外”来执行独立任务

“他们知道美国可能对这次行动不满意，但他们需要表现出一些努力，”他补充道。“美国将要求日本在安全问题上发挥更积极的作用，但这可能会给日本社会带来问题。”

同志社大学教授村田浩二也告诉记者新闻周刊“日本不会直接参与海上多边安全合作，但可以自行派遣自卫队参与。”他解释说，这可能是东京“面对德黑兰和莫斯科的一种方式”

俄罗斯一直表示反对美国在中东地区的侵略行为。尽管莫斯科谴责了最近在沙特阿拉伯发生的袭击，但它也呼吁在指责之前进行彻底调查，外交部长谢尔盖拉夫罗夫周四对记者表示，“重要的是要确保这一过程是公正的，因为未经证实的指控无助于问题的解决，它们只会加剧该地区已经存在的紧张局势，”国营的塔斯社援引俄罗斯外交部的话说。

中国也批评了这些袭击，同时驳斥了任何先发制人的猜测，即谁可能是袭击的幕后黑手。中国外交部发言人耿爽告诉记者，北京方面寻求“对该事件进行全面、客观和公正的调查”她补充说:“中国呼吁有关各方不要采取会加剧地区紧张局势的行动，共同维护地区和平与稳定。”

莫斯科和北京将波斯湾紧张局势的加剧归咎于特朗普退出伊朗协议。日本对这一决定只字未提，但一直寻求与俄罗斯和中国保持积极的关系，因为这两个地区大国在亚太及其他地区的国际事务上日益合作。

尽管华盛顿迄今没有认可东京在中东扮演和平缔造者的努力，但一些专家认为，随着特朗普政府上周的明显离职，这种情况可能会发生变化。众所周知，白宫国家安全顾问约翰·博尔顿是一个对交易没有兴趣的战争鹰派人物，他的轻率免职可能会给日本带来新的机遇。

村田告诉记者，“博尔顿被解雇后，日本可以在德黑兰和华盛顿之间发挥更积极的外交作用。”新闻周刊。

这一观点被一个曾经担任博尔顿搭档的人所认同。前日本外务省副大臣田中仁史(Tanaka Hitoshi)现在担任日本研究所国际战略研究所主席，他回忆道，多年前八国集团(G8)的审议中，博尔顿是如何“坚决反对欧洲人与伊朗谈判的”，田中是G8的政治主任。

田中告诉记者:“那时，博尔顿相当强大，他对谈判持否定态度。”新闻周刊。“从这个意义上说，我支持谈判，博尔顿的下台可能会对美国与伊朗的谈判产生更好的影响。”

然而，自从博尔顿离开后，特朗普政府一直保持着对德黑兰的强硬态度。法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙试图在上个月比亚里茨举行的七国集团峰会期间担任美伊仲裁人，尽管有一些短暂的成功迹象，但双方都回到了强硬立场。

因此，特朗普和鲁哈尼在即将召开的联合国大会期间举行会晤的希望已经破灭。哈梅内伊加倍努力拒绝谈判，除非美国履行其核协议承诺，鲁哈尼警告说，他甚至可能不会参加下周在纽约举行的国际会议，因为他尚未获得签证。

尽管如此，安倍已承诺与鲁哈尼会面，希望重启日本化解该地区紧张局势的努力，该地区不仅对全球政治稳定至关重要，对全球能源安全也至关重要。

德黑兰沙希德·贝赫什蒂大学助理教授哈米德雷扎·阿齐兹(Hamidreza Azizi)告诉记者，“日本一直试图在伊朗和美国的僵局中发挥积极作用，一个明显的例子就是安倍访问德黑兰，主要目的是缓和紧张局势。”新闻周刊。“我认为对日本来说，这关系到它自身的利益，尤其是因为它是中东的一个主要石油进口国，该地区的任何争端都会给东京带来巨大的经济成本。”

与此同时，他小心翼翼地注意到。“我不认为安倍的举措会导致任何具体的降级，原因有二:第一，伊朗认为目前的局面主要是由美国的最大压力政策造成的对抗，因此除非华盛顿放弃这条具体路线，否则任何问题都不会得到解决，而这一点目前还不明朗。其次，伊朗已经得出结论，那些试图在冲突中斡旋的美国盟友在这个问题上没有任何独立的影响力，”阿齐兹指出，马克龙的倡议命运多舛。

麻省理工学院的历史学家普亚·阿里马汉姆也告诉记者新闻周刊“日本确实可以在伊朗和美国之间的调停中发挥建设性的作用。它与伊朗和美国都有着长期的关系，伊朗人普遍认为日本非常有利，”暗指日本在1905年战胜了长期干涉波斯事务的沙皇俄国。

像阿齐兹一样，阿里马哈姆解释说，“推动两国关系的不仅仅是友好关系或历史”。

“日本进口伊朗石油并与伊朗进行广泛的贸易，美国的制裁正在损害这些努力，”他告诉记者新闻周刊。“因此，日本企业一直向政府施压，要求其恢复石油进口，并实施保护措施，支持希望返回伊朗的公司。”

尽管如此，即日本方面做出了雄心勃勃的外交努力，仍面临重大挑战。阿里马汉姆表示，“博尔顿的离开有助于缓和局势，但仍存在许多障碍”，例如庞贝，他很容易指责伊朗发动周六的袭击，并似乎热衷于将伊斯兰共和国描绘成一个流氓行为者，以及沙特阿拉伯等美国地区合作伙伴，沙特阿拉伯也在为反对伊朗进行辩护。

“尽管如此，特朗普和伊朗人都不希望两国爆发冲突，所以还是有希望的，”他补充道。"日本、法国和其他国家可以利用与两国的关系找到共同点。"

U.S. ALLY JAPAN IS NOT JOINING DONALD TRUMP'S FIGHT WITH IRAN, SO CAN IT BRING PEACE?

Japan has broken with its top ally, the United States, in seeking to avoid provoking Iran as Tokyo tries to balance its ties with Washington and Tehran.

Newly-appointed Japanese Defense Minister Kono Taro told a press conference Wednesday that his country was "not aware of any information that points to Iran" being behind Saturday's attacks on the Abqaiq oil-processing facility and the Khurais oil field in Saudi Arabia. Instead, the former top diplomat argued that "we believe the Houthis carried out the attack based on the statement claiming responsibility."

The Yemeni Zaidi Shiite Muslim movement, also known as Ansar Allah, has been battling a Saudi-led coalition since 2015 and has launched a number of attacks across the northern border, though none nearly as far deep into its territory. While Riyadh has long accused Tehran of directly backing the Houthis, the Saudi Defense Ministry argued Wednesday that the most recent strikes instead came from the north, while maintaining that the exact launch site was still unknown.

The U.S., for its part, has already implicated Iran, with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo calling the attacks an "act of war" as regional tensions continued to flare. Even as President Donald Trump's administration broadcast a call for international support in containing the Islamic Republic, Japan has sought to avoid becoming involved in a potential fight that could test its constitutional limits and disrupt a campaign to present the country as a global peacemaker.

Last month marked nine decades since Iran and Japan established relations and while the 20th century saw both countries undergo dramatic political changes, they have maintained normal ties into the current era. Japan was a supporter of the 2015 nuclear deal struck by Iran and the U.S., alongside China, the European Union, France, Germany, Russia and the United Kingdom, and like these other signatories, Tokyo has continued to support it in spite of Trump's pullout last year.

The unilateral U.S. exit and subsequent sanctions have pressured Japan into reducing its imports of Iranian oil, but Tokyo has sought to play a proactive role in potentially bringing Washington and Tehran together once again. As unrest grew in the Persian Gulf, Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo made a historic visit to Iran in June in hopes of playing "as much a role as possible for peace and stability in the region."

As Abe arrived in Tehran, Trump appeared to dismiss speculation that the Japanese leader was carrying a message to Iranian President Hassan Rouhani or supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The president tweeted: "While I very much appreciate P.M. Abe going to Iran to meet with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, I personally feel that it is too soon to even think about making a deal. They are not ready, and neither are we!"

Abe was warmly received as the first Japanese leader to visit Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution that cast out a West-sponsored monarchy and ushered in a Shiite Muslim theocracy skeptical of foreign influence. As he made the case for diplomacy, however, his visit was overshadowed by the second series of attacks against oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman in the span of a month.

This time, among the ships targeted in the unclaimed acts of sabotage was a Panama-flagged, Japan-owned vessel carrying methanol from Saudi Arabia to Singapore. The U.S. swiftly blamed Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards, claiming they used limpet mines against the ship. The vessel's Japanese owner defied this narrative by arguing the crew saw flying objects ahead of the attack.

The Japanese government itself requested further evidence that Iran was behind the incident and, when Washington called for the formation of multilateral maritime security initiative to patrol the Persian Gulf, Tokyo stood silent. Since then, only Australia, Bahrain, the U.K. and, most recently, the United Arab Emirates, have joined.

Japan's military, known as the Self-Defense Forces, have traditionally steered away from combat operations as the Japanese constitution provides only an extremely limited role for the military and, even after a 2014 reinterpretation and a new 2015 National Defense Guidelines, there was little room for overseas operations. Such moves were particularly risky when dealing with a region known for rapid, unpredictable developments.

"The Middle East and the Balkan Peninsula are said to be the tinderboxes of the world," former Japanese Defense Minister Nakatani Gen told Newsweek. "If Japan gets involved in this region, things could get very complicated, so Japan needs to be very careful in taking action."

"I think the Japanese government is not going to be part of this initiative, but I personally think Japan should dispatch Self-Defense Forces so that Japan can protect its own ships," he added.

Ohara Bonji, a senior fellow at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation, told Newsweek that "Japanese society will not accept conducting such military operations so easily in the Middle East, but it may use the framework of keeping peace in the international community." He said "the Self-Defense Forces can operate outside the battlefield, such as operating in supply and replenishment, logistics and search and rescue" and suggested Japan may pursue independent mission by "sending ships outside the Strait of Hormuz."

"They know the U.S. may not be happy about that operation, but they need to show some effort," he added. "The U.S. will require Japan to play a more proactive role in security issues, but this could pose a problem for Japanese society."

Doshisha University professor Murata Koji also told Newsweek that "Japan will not be directly involved in the maritime multilateral security cooperation, but may participate by sending the Self-Defense Forces by itself." He explained this could be a way for Tokyo "to keep face with Tehran and with Moscow, too."

Russia has expressed regular opposition toward U.S. moves deemed aggressive across the Middle East. While Moscow condemned the recent attacks in Saudi Arabia, it has also called for a thorough investigation before assigning blame and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told reporters Thursday it was "important to make sure that the process is impartial because unsubstantiated accusations won't help matters, they are only heightening already existing tensions in the region," as cited by the state-run Tass Russian News Agency.

China, too, has criticized the attacks while at the same time dismissing any preemptive speculation as to who may have been behind them. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang told reporters that Beijing sought "a comprehensive, objective and impartial investigation into the incident." She added: "China calls on relevant parties to refrain from taking actions that will escalate tensions in the region and to jointly uphold regional peace and stability."

Moscow and Beijing have blamed an uptick in tensions across the Persian Gulf on Trump's departure from the Iran deal. Japan has said little of that decision, but has sought to remain on positive terms with Russia and China as two regional powers that were increasingly cooperating on international affairs in the Asia-Pacific and beyond.

Though Washington has so far refrained from endorsing Tokyo's efforts to play peacemaker in the Middle East, some experts saw a potential change with a notable departure last week within the Trump administration. The unceremonious removal of White House national security adviser John Bolton, a known war hawk with little appetite for deal-making, may present new opportunities for Japan.

"With Mr. Bolton fired, Japan can take a more positive diplomatic role between Tehran and Washington," Murata told Newsweek.

This opinion was shared by one of of the men who once served as Bolton's counterpart. Former Japanese Deputy Foreign Minister Tanaka Hitoshi, who now serves as chairman of the Japan Research Institute's Institute for International Strategy, recalls how Bolton "was adamantly opposed to the Europeans negotiating with Iran" during deliberations years ago at the G8, for which Tanaka was the political director.

"At that time, Bolton was quite strong, he was negative toward negotiations," Tanaka told Newsweek. "I support negotiations in this sense, Bolton's removal may have a better impact on U.S. negotiations with Iran."

Since Bolton's departure, however, the Trump administration has retained its tough approach toward Tehran. French President Emmanuel Macron attempted to step up to the role of U.S.-Iran arbiter around the time of the G7 summit last month in Biarritz and, despite some brief signs of success, both sides fell back on their hard-line positions.

As a result, hopes have faded for a potential meeting between Trump and Rouhani at the sidelines of the upcoming United Nations General Assembly. As Khamenei doubled down on refusals to negotiate unless the U.S. lived up to its nuclear deal commitments, Rouhani has warned he may not even attend next week's international gathering in New York as he has yet to be granted a visa.

Nonetheless, Abe has pledged to meet with Rouhani in hopes of rekindling Japan's effort to defuse tensions in a region crucial not only to political stability worldwide, but global energy security as well.

"Japan has been trying to play a positive role in the Iran-U.S. standoff, a clear example of which was Abe's visit to Tehran with the main aim of defusing the tensions," Hamidreza Azizi, an assistant professor at Shahid Beheshti University in Tehran, told Newsweek. "I think for Japan, its own interests are at stake, especially because it's a major oil importer from the Middle East and any dispute in the region would cause huge economic costs for Tokyo."

At the same time, he struck a cautious note. "I don't expect Abe's initiatives to result in any concrete de-escalation, for two reasons: First, Iran sees the current scene as a confrontation primarily caused by the U.S. maximum pressure policy, so nothing would be solved unless Washington backs off from this specific line, something that's not on the horizon right now. Second, Iran has concluded that those U.S. allies that are trying to mediate in the conflict do not have any independent leverage on the issue," Azizi argued, noting Macron's ill-fated initiative.

Pouya Alimagham, a historian at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, also told Newsweek that "Japan can indeed play a constructive role in mediating between Iran and the U.S. It has longstanding ties with both Iran and the U.S. Iranians in general view Japan in a very favorable light," alluding to Japan's 1905 victory over czarist Russia, which had long intervened in Persian affairs.

Like Azizi, Alimagham explained that "there's more than just friendly relations or history that drives relations" between the two.

"Japan imports Iranian oil and does extensive business with Iran, and U.S. sanctions are hurting those endeavors," he told Newsweek. "Consequently, Japanese businesses have been pressuring their governent to resume oil imports and to put in place protections in support of companies wanting to return to Iran."

Still, there were major challenges ahead, even with an ambitious diplomatic effort on Japan's part. Alimagham said that "the departure of Bolton helps make de-escalation more likely, but many barriers exist," such as Pompeo, who readily blamed Iran for Saturday's attacks and appeared enthusiastic to paint the Islamic Republic as a rogue actor, and regional U.S. partners such as Saudi Arabia, which was also building a case against Iran.

"That said, and despite the bluster, neither Trump nor the Iranians want a conflict to break out between the two countries, so there's room for hope," he added. "Japan, along with France and others, can use their ties with both countries to find common ground."