9月28日，天气宜人，参议员林赛·格雷厄姆和唐纳德·特朗普总统一起去弗吉尼亚州斯特林的总统私人高尔夫俱乐部打高尔夫

　　格雷厄姆向特朗普保证，参议院共和党人支持众议院正在进行的正式弹劾调查。但格雷厄姆那天的主要信息集中在伊朗——即需要对伊斯兰共和国进行军事惩罚，特朗普和许多其他人认为这是两周前对沙特阿拉伯两大石油设施的无人机和巡航导弹袭击。

　　“让伊朗付出代价，”格雷厄姆第二天出现在哥伦比亚广播公司面向国家”特朗普回忆道。这位南卡罗来纳州共和党人说，他还告诉总统，他在6月份最后一刻下令取消计划中的袭击，以报复伊朗击落一架美国无人机，但未能缓和伊朗的行为。“当他们击落无人机时，你有一个有分寸的反应。这不起作用，总统先生，”格雷厄姆告诉特朗普。“他们疯了，伊朗人。把它们放回盒子里。"

　　特朗普一直保持沉默，担心引发一场更广泛的中东战争，一些支持者警告称，这场战争可能会毁掉他再次当选的机会。但分析人士表示，尽管总统保持克制，该地区仍将面临一场大火灾。原因如下:自去年特朗普退出被他斥之为“糟糕交易”的2015年核协议以来，他一直用大幅减少石油出口的制裁来重击伊朗，导致通胀和失业率飙升。特朗普以特有的咆哮预测，他所谓的“最大压力”政策将迫使德黑兰重返谈判桌，在那里，它别无选择，只能吞下对其核和地区野心的更严格控制。

 　　但是，尽管经济困难，伊朗还是以自己最大程度的挑衅作为回应。德黑兰的行动包括骚扰和扣押波斯湾附近的油轮，停止遵守2015年协议的一些条款，伊朗击落美国无人驾驶飞机，以及最近对沙特石油设施的袭击，这一戏剧性升级使全球5%的石油供应一下子从市场上消失。伊朗总统哈桑·鲁哈尼警告说:“如果有一天他们想阻止伊朗石油出口，那么波斯湾就不会有石油出口。”。

　　中东专家担心，只要特朗普继续实施其严重制裁，美国和伊朗将继续陷入升级循环，这将导致重大军事对抗。

　　前美国驻黎巴嫩、叙利亚、伊拉克、科威特、阿富汗和巴基斯坦大使瑞安·克罗克告诉记者:“特朗普总统已经表明，他是一个不太可能仓促开战的国家安全极简主义者。”新闻周刊。“问题是，他和他的团队正在推行最大限度的制裁政策，伊朗人将其解释为政权更迭政策。因此，他们倾向于做出总统不准备应对的最大化回应。”

HOW TRUMP'S 'MAXIMUM PRESSURE' IRAN POLICY IS LEADING THE U.S. INTO ANOTHER WA

　　On a balmy September 28, Sen. Lindsey Graham went golfing with President Donald Trump at the president's private golf club in Sterling, Virginia, about 30 miles outside Washington D.C.

　　As they played the tree-studded course on the banks of the Potomac River, Graham assured Trump that Senate Republicans had his back on the formal impeachment inquiry underway in the House. But Graham's principal message that day focused on Iran—namely the need to punish the Islamic Republic militarily for what Trump and many others believe was its drone-and-cruise-missile attack on two major Saudi Arabian oil facilities two weeks earlier.

　　"Make Iran pay a price," Graham, appearing the next day on CBS's Face the Nation, recalled urging Trump. The South Carolina Republican said he also told the president that his last-minute orders in June to call off a planned attack in retaliation for Iran's downing of an American drone had failed to moderate Iran's behavior. "You had a measured response when they shot down the drone. It didn't work, Mr. President," Graham told Trump. "They're running wild, the Iranians. Put 'em back in a box."

　　So far, Trump has held his fire, wary of igniting a much wider Middle East war that some supporters warn could sink his chances for reelection. But analysts say the region is headed for a major conflagration despite the president's restraint. Here's why: Ever since last year, when Trump quit a 2015 nuclear accord that he castigated as a "bad deal," he has bludgeoned Iran with sanctions that have drastically reduced its oil exports, sending both inflation and unemployment soaring. With characteristic bluster, Trump predicts his so-called "maximum pressure" policy will force Tehran to return to the negotiating table, where it will have no choice but to swallow tighter controls on its nuclear and regional ambitions.

　　But despite its economic hardships, Iran has responded with its own campaign of maximum defiance. Tehran's campaign has included the harassment and seizure of oil tankers near the Persian Gulf, a halt to its compliance with some provisions of the 2015 accord, Iran's downing of the U.S. drone, and most recently, the attack on Saudi oil facilities, a dramatic escalation that has taken 5 percent of the world's oil supplies off the market in one fell swoop. "If one day they want to prevent the export of Iran's oil, then no oil will be exported from the Persian Gulf," warned Iranian President Hassan Rouhani.

　　Middle East experts fear that as long as Trump maintains his crippling sanctions, the U.S. and Iran will remain locked in an escalatory cycle that will lead to a major military confrontation.

　　"President Trump has shown he's a national security minimalist who is not likely to rush into a war," Ryan Crocker, a former U.S. ambassador to Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Kuwait, Afghanistan and Pakistan, told Newsweek. "The problem is that he and his team are pursuing a maximalist sanctions policy that the Iranians interpret as a policy of regime change. So they're going to be inclined to deliver a maximalist response that the president isn't prepared to deal with."