根据a270赢周五在推特上分享的地图显示，唐纳德·特朗普总统最新的工作批准数字可能意味着他2020年竞选连任的麻烦。
华盛顿顾问、政治民主党创始人马特·罗杰斯发布的推文授予每个州的选举团选票，根据这些选票，各州报告总统的支持率有高有低。罗杰斯的调查结果显示，赢得总统选举需要270张选举人票，民主党挑战者获得356张选举人票，轻松领先特朗普174张。
尽管特朗普经常很快分享他的工作批准数字(尤其是在共和党人中间，尤其是当他们拉斯穆森提供)，民调公司Civiqs的最新调查结果显示，目前只有43%的美国人认可他作为首席执行官的表现。
地图使用公民资格'逐州细分在2017年1月至2019年10月24日收集的民意调查结果中，通过推断支持率来显示哪些州可能将选举团的选票授予特朗普和他最终的民主党对手。通过观察特朗普的支持者和反对者的地理分布如何与选举团的选票分布形成对比，这张地图或许可以让人们看到总统的前景。可视化还根据不确定性程度进行了颜色编码，报告最高批准百分比的州用暗红色表示，更多的不批准州用蓝色表示。
值得注意的是，只有两个州，缅因州和内布拉斯加州，分配了他们的选举团选票，以与普选相一致。这意味着在剩下的48个州，赢家通吃的方法导致不同选区的州在全国选举中呈现统一的红色或蓝色。
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例如，据报道，在佛罗里达州，选民似乎平均分裂，主要政党候选人在最近五次总统选举中的四次中，从未完成超过3个百分点的差距从270到胜利的数据。(2004年，时任总统乔治·布什领先民主党对手约翰·克里5个百分点。但是每四年，佛罗里达将所有的选票授予一名候选人。
罗杰斯的地图给出了48%的支持率，50%的人不赞成总统在最近一次公民投票中的表现，勉强将佛罗里达州的29张选举团选票授予了一名民主党人。尽管支持率很高，但该州在2020年肯定会成为战场。
罗杰斯的地图也与美国选民最近的一些趋势相似。例如，长期以来一直是共和党大本营的德克萨斯州，并不在深红色的“安全”州之列。相反，这是一个浅粉色的特朗普“倾斜”区，总统的支持率为50%，而公民党的支持率为47%。这一发现与最近的报道不谋而合，即德克萨斯州人口结构的变化可能偏爱更多的民主党政治家随着年轻的左倾专业人士继续移居该州。
2016年12月18日，选举团投票前夕，44岁的鲁思·富尔顿在科罗拉多州丹佛市国会大厦外举行烛光守夜活动，反对当时的当选总统唐纳德·特朗普。富尔顿说:“选举团应该是针对这种人的一种保护措施。”。根据总统目前的支持率，2020年选举团投票的逐州地图显示他大幅度落选。
ELECTORAL COLLEGE MAP BASED ON TRUMP'S JOB APPROVAL RATINGS LOOKS GOOD FOR DEMOCRATS
According to a 270 To Win map shared on Twitter Friday, President Donald Trump's latest job approval numbers could mean trouble for his 2020 reelection bid when it comes to the Electoral College.
The tweet posted by Matt Rogers, a Washington consultant and founder of Politidope, awarded each state's Electoral College votes based on which states reported higher or lower approval ratings of the president. With 270 Electoral College votes required to win the presidency, Rogers' findings award a Democratic challenger 356 votes, a comfortable 174-vote lead over Trump, were the election to be held today.
While Trump has often been quick to share his job approval numbers (especially among Republicans and especially when they're provided by Rasmussen), the latest findings from polling company Civiqs report that just 43 percent of the country currently endorses his performance as chief executive.
The map uses Civiqs' state-by-state breakdown of poll results gathered between January 2017 and October 24, 2019, extrapolating the approval scores to show which states are likely to award their Electoral College votes to Trump versus his eventual Democrat opponent. By observing how the geographic distribution of Trump fans and foes stacks up against the distribution of Electoral College votes, the map may provide a glimpse of the president's prospects. The visualization is also color-coded by degree of uncertainty, with the states reporting the highest percentage of approval shaded dark red, and more disapproving states depicted in blue.
Notably, only two states, Maine and Nebraska, divvy up their Electoral College votes to align with the popular vote. This means that in the remaining 48 states, a winner-take-all approach leads states with varied electorates to appear uniformly red or blue in national elections.
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In Florida for example, voters appear evenly split, with major party candidates never finishing more than 3 percentage points apart in four of the last five presidential elections, according to data from 270 To Win. (In 2004, then-incumbent President George W. Bush came out 5 percentage points ahead of Democratic opponent John Kerry.) But every four years, Florida awards all of its votes to one candidate.
Handing down an approval rating of 48 percent, with 50 percent disapproving of the president in the last Civiqs' poll, Rogers' map narrowly awards the 29 electoral college votes from Florida to a Democrat. Approval ratings notwithstanding, the state is sure to be a battleground in 2020.
Rogers' map also parallels some recent trends in the American electorate. Texas, for example, long a GOP stronghold, is not among the deep red "safe" states. Instead, it's a light pink, Trump "leaning" zone, having clocked a 50 percent approval rating of the president, against 47 percent disapproval according to Civiqs. The finding coincides with recent reports that Texas' shifting demographics may favor more Democrat politicians as young, left-leaning professionals continue moving to the state.
Ruth Fulton, 44, demonstrates during a candlelight vigil against then-president-elect Donald Trump outside the Colorado Capitol building on the eve of the Electoral College vote, in Denver, Colorado on December 18, 2016. "The Electoral College is supposed to be a safeguard against exactly this sort of person," Fulton said. A state-by-state map of projected 2020 electoral college votes based on the president's current approval ratings shows him losing by a wide margin.
