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三军情报局已经有了新的领导人,巴格达迪可能没有在经营集团

2019-10-28 13:20   美国新闻网   - 

美国周六和周日的接连行动导致伊斯兰国激进组织领导人死亡Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi发言人Abu al-Hassan al-Muhajir在叙利亚,但该组织已经指定了继任者,新闻周刊已经学会了。

阿卜杜拉·加尔达什(Abdullah Qardash),有时拼写为Karshesh,也称为Hajji Abdullah al-Afari,据说八月份被巴格达迪提名管理该组织的“穆斯林事务”,该组织在一份广为流传的声明中称之为伊斯兰国的官方阿玛克新闻机构,但从未得到该组织的公开支持。尽管对这位曾在已故领导人萨达姆·侯赛因手下服役的前伊拉克军官知之甚少,但一名要求不透露姓名或国家的地区情报官员透露新闻周刊加尔达什会接管巴格达迪的角色——尽管在他去世时,这个角色已经失去了很多意义。

巴格达迪在三角洲队行动后引爆了一件自杀式背心后死亡新闻周刊这位官员说,这位有影响力的强硬派教士的角色已经在很大程度上成为象征性的。

“巴格达迪是个傀儡。这位官员告诉记者:“他没有参与行动或日常事务。”新闻周刊。"巴格达迪所做的只是说是或不是——没有计划."

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10月27日,在伊德利布省与土耳其接壤的叙利亚巴里沙村,叙利亚儿童走过一辆被损坏的面包车,该车遭到直升机枪击,与美国袭击有关,此次袭击导致伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国领导人阿布·巴克尔·巴格达迪及其一些附属人员死亡。

细节仍在浮现至于巴格达迪在巴里沙村的营地发生了什么,以及为什么三军情报局局长躲在更常见的与对手圣战组织Hayat Tahrir al-Sham有关联的地区深处,该组织由巴格达迪的前助手阿布·穆罕默德·约拉尼领导,他后来建立了基地组织的叙利亚分支努斯拉阵线。然而,两人的部队都面临连续失败,严重限制了他们在两个国家间的行动自由,这两个国家在破坏稳定方面发挥了关键作用。

这对夫妇利用2003年美国入侵伊拉克导致的动乱推翻了侯赛因,建立了强大的军事网络。随着巴格达迪在叙利亚的蔓延,乔拉尼最终拒绝将他的叙利亚组织与巴格达迪合并,他利用了2011年爆发的内战,当时美国、土耳其和其他地区大国支持反抗叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德的反叛和圣战起义。

然而,随着伊斯兰国在伊拉克和叙利亚占据主导地位,美国在2014年召集了一个国际联盟,开始在这两个国家轰炸该组织。伊朗还动员了自己的军队以及同盟地区民兵,支持伊拉克和叙利亚政府对抗激进分子的进攻。

到2015年,俄罗斯加入了叙利亚的战斗,美国也逐渐开始抛弃日益增长的伊斯兰反对派,转而支持第三个派别,库尔德人领导的叙利亚民主力量。叙利亚政府和叙利亚民主力量随后展开了对抗运动,以击败伊斯兰国,但巴格达迪继续躲避地方和国际力量。

尽管唐纳德·特朗普总统是第一位明确宣布巴格达迪死亡的世界领导人,但近年来,美国和国际官员对他的命运和下落发表了相互矛盾的报道,多次将他置于在半岛地区在叙利亚东北部和伊拉克东部,声称由于空袭受伤,他无法领导伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国。

巴格达迪什么时候在视频中被看到4月份获释——这是他在摩苏尔大努里清真寺发表唯一公开演讲后的首次露面——没有明显的受伤迹象。然而,即使他去世了,他的组织臭名昭著的命令和引发全球流血事件的能力也不会完全退化。

“他们将袭击叙利亚、伊拉克的混乱、欧洲,当然还有美国,”这位地区官员告诉记者新闻周刊。你击中了一个沉睡的巨人,它会醒来,造成不可预见的混乱,并对西方平民造成严重破坏。"

然而,一名前美国情报官员辩称,巴格达迪的死可能会对该组织的运作能力产生明显影响新闻周刊“如果他通过信件和快递签下运营和战略,那么他就有影响力。”

“领袖很重要,”这位前官员说。"坦率地说,我们追求高级领导人,因为他们做决定."

特朗普命令美国军队从叙利亚东北部撤军,导致叙利亚民主力量与叙利亚政府达成协议。叙利亚政府的盟友俄罗斯已达成协议,停止土耳其领导的对边境附近库尔德武装的袭击。然而,总统已经部署了更多的美国军队来保护叙利亚东部的油田。

这个故事已经更新,以反映阿玛克宣布阿卜杜拉·加尔达什的立场的真实性受到质疑。

ISIS ALREADY HAS A NEW LEADER, BUT BAGHDADI MAY NOT HAVE BEEN RUNNING THE GROUP ANYWAY

Back-to-back U.S. operations Saturday and Sunday have resulted in the deaths of Islamic State militant group (ISIS) leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and spokesperson Abu al-Hassan al-Muhajir in Syria, but the organization has already designated a successor, Newsweek has learned.

Abdullah Qardash, sometimes spelled Karshesh and also known as Hajji Abdullah al-Afari, was said to have been nominated by Baghdadi in August to run the group's "Muslim affairs" in a widely-circulated statement attributed to ISIS' official Amaq news outlet, but never publicly endorsed by the group. Though little is known about the former Iraqi military officer who once served under late leader Saddam Hussein, one regional intelligence official asking not to be identified by name or nation told Newsweek that Qardash would have taken over Baghdadi's role—though it had lost much of its significance by the time of his demise.

Baghdadi, who died after detonating a suicide vest following a Delta Team operation first reported by Newsweek, built ISIS' self-styled caliphate out of Al-Qaeda's Iraqi branch, but the official said that the influential hard-line cleric's role had become largely symbolic.

"Baghdadi was a figurehead. He was not involved in operations or day-to-day," the official told Newsweek. "All Baghdadi did was say yes or no—no planning."

​Syrian children walk past a damaged van at the site of helicopter gunfire linked to the U.S. raid that saw the death of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and a number of his affiliates, in the Syrian village of Barisha in the Idlib province along the border with Turkey, October 27.IBRAHIM YASOUF/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

Details are still emerging as to what transpired at Baghdadi's compound in Barisha village and why the ISIS chief was hiding out deep in territory more commonly associated with rival jihadi group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, led by former Baghdadi associate Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, who went on to built Al-Qaeda's Syria branch, Nusra Front. Both men's forces, however, have faced consecutive defeats, severely limiting their freedom of movement across two nations they played key roles in destabilizing.

The pair had taken advantage of the unrest resulting from the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq that overthrew Hussein to establish a powerful militant network. Jolani ultimately refused to merge his Syrian group with Baghdadi's as the latter spread there, capitalizing on a civil war that erupted in 2011 as the U.S., Turkey and other regional powers backed a rebel and jihadi uprising against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

As ISIS came to dominate both in Iraq and Syria, however, the U.S. gathered an international coalition in 2014 to begin bombing the group in both countries. Iran also mobilized its own forces, along with allied regional militias, to back the Iraqi and Syrian governments against militant advances.

By 2015, Russia entered the fight in Syria and the U.S. had gradually begun to ditch the increasingly Islamist opposition in favor of a third faction, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces. The Syrian government and Syrian Democratic Forces then waged rival campaigns to defeat ISIS, but Baghdadi continued to elude local and international powers.

While President Donald Trump was the first world leader to explicitly claim the death of Baghdadi, various U.S. and international officials have offered conflicting reports as to his fate and whereabouts in recent years, many times placing him in the Jazeera region in northeastern Syria and eastern Iraq and claiming he had been left unable to lead ISIS due to wounds sustained in an airstrike.

When Baghdadi was seen in a video released in April—his first appearance since making his sole public speech at Mosul's Grand al-Nuri Mosque—there were no visible signs of injury. Even with his demise, however, his group's infamous capacity to both order and inspire global bloodshed may not be entirely degraded.

"They will hit Syria, the chaos of Iraq, Europe and definitely the United States," the regional official told Newsweek. You have a hit a sleeping giant, it will wake up and cause unforeseeable chaos and wreak havoc on the Western civilians."

One former U.S. intelligence official, however, argued that Baghdadi's death may have some tangible effect on the group's ability to operate, telling Newsweek that "if he is signing off on operations and strategy via letter and courier then he has an impact."

"The leader matters," the former official said. "Candidly, we go after senior leaders, because they make decisions."

Trump has ordered the withdrawal of U.S. forces from northeastern Syria, leading the Syrian Democratic Forces to strike a deal with the Syrian government, whose ally Russia, has reached an agreement to halt a Turkish-led attack on Kurdish fighters near the border. The president has, however, deployed additional U.S. troops to secure oil fields in eastern Syria.

This story has been updated to reflect that the veracity of the Amaq report announcing Abdullah Qardash's position has been disputed.

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