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分析师警告称特朗普签署香港法案可能扼杀中国贸易协定

2019-11-28 20:45   美国新闻网   - 

港支持民主的活动人士一直称赞国会通过新立法,允许立法者对在这个动荡地区侵犯人权的中国官员实施制裁。

参议院立法于周三获得一致通过。随后,该法案以417票对1票获得众议院通过,并被送到唐纳德·特朗普总统的办公桌上签字。

该法案是数月的努力香港活动人士和议员敦促美国采取更强硬的路线支持香港的动荡,香港的动荡现已接近第六个月。

《香港人权与民主法案》还将授权国务院每年对其给予香港的特殊自治地位进行审查,给予香港有利的贸易待遇。

但分析人士警告称,美国对香港抗议者的支持可能危及一项旨在结束华盛顿和北京之间旷日持久的贸易战的长期协议。

中国指责外来干涉因为在香港引发了大规模抗议活动,抗议活动始于反对将逃犯从香港驱逐出境,在中国接受审判的立法提案。

反对者认为,这将允许北京迫害居住在前英国殖民地的异见人士,并破坏香港在1997年回归中国之前达成的“一国两制”安排。

抗议活动后来演变成一场更广泛的反政府运动,反对中国人侵占香港。咄咄逼人的警察策略和政府的顽固态度导致了越来越激烈的对抗积极分子和当局之间,没有即将缓和的迹象。

自6月份群众游行开始以来,中国政府一直指责美国和其他西方国家引发了骚乱。

新的立法只会支持这一信念,并降低达成贸易协议的可能性——特朗普声称贸易协议就在眼前。

特朗普威胁另一个人1500亿美元如果双方不能在12月15日之前达成所谓的“第一阶段”协议,就要征收关税。

吠陀伙伴投资公司的经济政策主管亨利埃塔·特雷兹告诉记者纽约时报他在香港立法上的签字可能会破坏这一时间表。

“两国之间的紧张局势正在加剧,而不是消失,”她解释道。"没有达成协议并要求从这里升级的前景仍然十分真实。"

哈德森研究所的学者白邦瑞在中国问题上为特朗普政府提供建议,他还告诉本报,香港立法将为中国共产党内部关于美国战略的讨论提供信息。

“在北京,希望进入第一阶段的改革者和认为自己被美国领导的敌对势力包围的强硬派之间正在进行辩论,包括在香港,”他告诉记者倍。

但无论如何,香港支持民主的活动人士正在庆祝。签署的立法将是抗议爆发以来最强有力的国际支持。数万人在美国驻香港领事馆游行,呼吁通过该法案,美国国旗在大规模示威中随处可见。

民主派组织Demosisto——由著名活动家约书亚·王共同创建——在推特上写道,“感谢所有人——在香港和华盛顿——的辛勤工作。”

总部设在美国的香港民主理事会常务理事朱棣文在致新闻周刊他“被本周国会的行动深深打动了”

“我知道香港人可以从今天的两党投票中听到并感受到美国的大力支持和支持,”他补充说。

「香港的自治不会在催泪瓦斯的笼罩下消失;中国的法治不会因中国共产党的威胁性声明而“千刀万剐”;它的人权和民主愿望不会因大规模逮捕而受到阻碍,也不会在政治监狱中遭受折磨。”

 

 

TRUMP SIGNING HONG KONG BILL COULD KILL CHINA TRADE DEAL, ANALYSTS WARN: 'TENSIONS ARE RISING BETWEEN THE TWO NATIONS'

ong Kong pro-democracy activists have been lauding Congress for passing new legislation to allow lawmakers to impose sanctions Chinese officials responsible for human rights abuses in the restive territory.

The Senate legislation was passed unanimously on Wednesday. It then passed the House by a 417-1 vote to send it to President Donald Trump's desk for his signature.

The bill is the culmination of a months-long effort by Hong Kong activists and lawmakers to push a harder U.S. line in support of the unrest in Hong Kong, now nearing its sixth month.

The Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act will also mandate an annual State Department review of the special autonomous status it grants to Hong Kong, which gives the territory beneficial trade treatment.

But analysts have warned that American support for the Hong Kong protesters could imperil a long-sought deal to end the expansive trade war between Washington and Beijing.

China has blamed foreign interference for driving the mass protests in Hong Kong, which began as a movement against proposed legislation that would have allowed fugitives to be deported from Hong Kong to face trial in China.

Opponents argued this would allow Beijing to persecute dissidents living in the former British colony, and undermine the "One country, two systems" arrangement reached before Hong Kong was handed back to Chinese control in 1997.

The protests have since morphed into a wider anti-government movement battling Chinese encroachment into Hong Kong. Aggressive police tactics and government intransigence have resulted in ever more aggressive confrontations between activists and authorities, with no sign of an imminent detente.

Since the start of mass marches in June, the Chinese government has blamed the U.S. and other Western nations of driving the unrest.

The new legislation will only bolster this belief and make a trade deal—which Trump has claimed is close at hand—less likely.

Trump has threatened another $150 billion in tariffs if the two sides cannot reach a so-called "phase one" agreement by December 15.

Henrietta Treyz, a director of economic policy at the Veda Partners investment firm, told The New York Times that his signature on the Hong Kong legislation could torpedo that timeline.

"Tensions are rising between the two nations, not dissipating," she explained. "The prospect of not reaching a deal and requiring escalation from here remains quite real."

Michael Pillsbury, a Hudson Institute academic who advises the Trump administration on China, also told the newspaper that the Hong Kong legislation will inform discussions within the Chinese Communist Party as to their U.S. strategy.

"There's an ongoing debate in Beijing between reformers who would like phase one and hard-liners who see themselves surrounded by hostile forces led by the United States, including in Hong Kong," he told the Times.

But Hong Kong pro-democracy activists are celebrating regardless. The signed legislation would be strongest international support given since the protests erupted. Tens of thousands have marched on the U.S. consulate in Hong Kong to call for the passage of the bill, and American flags are a common sight at mass demonstrations.

Pro-democracy organization Demosisto—co-founded by prominent activist Joshua Wong—wrote on Twitter, "Thank you everyone — in Hong Kong and Washington — for all the hard work."

Samuel Chu, the managing director of the U.S.-based Hong Kong Democracy Council, said in a statement sent to Newsweek that he was "deeply and personally moved by the actions in Congress this week."

"I know Hong Kongers can hear and feel the strong support and backing of the U.S. from today's bipartisan votes," he added.

"Hong Kong's autonomy will not disappear under a cloud of tear gas; its rule of law will not suffer 'death by a thousand cuts' by the Chinese Communist Party's threatening pronouncements; and its human rights and democratic aspirations will not be deterred by mass arrests or languish in political prisons."

 

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