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美联储研究称,特朗普的关税推高了价格,减少了就业

2019-12-29 09:25   美国新闻网   - 

根据美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)公布的一项研究,唐纳德·特朗普总统为保护美国制造商而引入的进口关税实际上已经造成了失业和消费者价格上涨。

2018年3月,特朗普政府推出钢铁和铝关税,以对抗总统所说的“激进的对外贸易做法”

总统也瞄准了中国商品当他发动贸易战时与北京的初步贸易协议可能很快会缓解这一问题。

然而,美联储经济学家亚伦·弗莱安和贾斯汀·皮尔斯得出的结论是,关税在降低美国一些国内产业的竞争中所取得的任何收益都被不断上升的投入成本和报复性关税抵消了。大阪20国集团峰会期间,中国习近平主席(右)与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在双边会议前握手。一项新的研究显示,特朗普与中国展开的贸易战削减了就业机会,提高了美国价格。

“我们发现,2018年的关税与制造业就业的相对减少和生产者价格的相对上涨有关,”该研究称。

该研究还指出,“全球互联供应链”意味着关税等贸易政策甚至可以保护国内产业的程度是有限的,尤其是因为这通常意味着“针锋相对的报复”。

“我们发现,传统进口保护渠道的影响在短期内被报复造成的竞争力下降和下游行业成本上升完全抵消。”

受到外国报复性关税打击的行业包括那些生产磁性和光学媒体、皮革制品、铝板、钢铁、汽车和家用电器的行业。

与此同时,美国消费者不得不为许多产品支付更多的费用,包括锅炉、建筑金属、运输设备和通用机械。

“虽然关税的长期影响可能与我们在此估计的不同,但结果表明,迄今为止,关税并没有导致美国制造业活动的增加,”该研究得出结论。

市场观察指出,这项研究没有考虑到关税造成的不确定性带来的商业信心,该研究称关税是美国商业投资减少的主要原因

ProPublica的Lydia DePillis在推特上向她的21,000名追随者表示,该研究证明,“贸易战正在损害表面上应该有所帮助的行业。”

与此同时,据游说团体关税伤害心脏地带称,9月份发布的数据显示,自2018年2月与中国的贸易战开始以来,美国消费者和企业已经额外支付了380亿美元。

新闻周刊已联系白宫发表评论。

在相关新闻中,北京和华盛顿的官员欢迎初步的贸易协议这将使中国从一些关税中得到减免,以换取中国增加对美国农产品出口的购买。

DONALD TRUMP'S TRADE WAR TARIFFS REDUCED EMPLOYMENT AT U.S. FACTORIES AND HIKED PRICES, FEDERAL RESERVE STUDY FINDS

Import tariffs introduced by President Donald Trump aimed at protecting American manufacturers have actually caused job losses and higher prices for consumers, according to a study published by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

In March 2018, the Trump administration introduced steel and aluminum tariffs to counter what the president described as "aggressive foreign trade practices."

The president also took aim at Chinese goods as he started a trade war with Beijing that may be soon eased with a preliminary trade deal.

However, Federal Reserve economists Aaron Flaaen and Justin Pierce concluded that any gains made by the tariffs in reducing competition for some U.S. domestic industries were cancelled out by rising input costs and retaliatory tariffs.

China's President Xi Jinping (R) shakes hands with US President Donald Trump before a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Osaka.The trade war Trump has waged with China has cut jobs and increased U.S. prices, according to a new study.

"We find that the 2018 tariffs are associated with relative reductions in manufacturing employment and relative increases in producer prices," the study said.

The study also stated how the "globally interconnected supply chains" meant that there are limits to how much trade policy like tariffs can even protect domestic industries, especially as it usually means a "tit-for-tat retaliation."

"We find the impact from the traditional import protection channel is completely offset in the short-run by reduced competitiveness from retaliation and higher costs in downstream industries."

Industries hit by foreign retaliatory tariffs included those who produced magnetic and optical media, leather goods, aluminum sheet, iron and steel, cars and household appliances.

Meanwhile, American consumers had to pay more for a number of products which included boilers, architectural metals, transportation equipment and general purpose machinery.

"While the longer-term effects of the tariffs may differ from those that we estimate here, the results indicate that the tariffs, thus far, have not led to increased activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector," the study concluded.

Market Watch noted that the study did not take into account business confidence from the uncertainty caused by the tariffs which it said is the main reason why there has been a decrease in business investment in the U.S.

Lydia DePillis from ProPublica tweeted to her 21,000 followers that the study proves that that the "trade war is hurting the sector it was ostensibly supposed to help."

Meanwhile, figures released in September showed that since the start of the trade war with China in February 2018, American consumers and businesses had paid an extra $38 billion, according to the lobby group Tariffs Hurt the Heartland.

Newsweek has contacted the White House for comment.

In related news, officials in Beijing and Washington have hailed a preliminary trade deal which would give China relief from some tariffs in return for it increasing its purchases of American farm exports.

 

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