朝鲜最高领导人金正恩在其七年执政期间第一次跳过了他的年度新年演讲，而是在他的去核化协议年终截止日期过去之际召开的一次高层会议上，提出了一项新的战略，远离与美国的谈判。
金正恩说了什么？
金正日的这番话是通过周二朝鲜中央通讯社的一份报告发表的，该报告详细介绍了执政的朝鲜劳动党第七届中央委员会第五次全体会议的结果。这位年轻的统治者利用为期四天的会议谴责华盛顿不愿意屈服于给予制裁减免，以换取推进与美国的潜在无核化换和平协议的步骤
报告的重点包括金的声明“世界将见证朝鲜在不久的将来拥有新的战略武器。”(朝鲜是朝鲜官方名称的缩写。)他还宣布，朝鲜可能不再遵守他在2018年4月作为一项善意措施而自行暂停核试验和远程导弹试验。
由于美国继续与韩国进行联合演习并实施新的制裁，金正日表示，韩国“没有理由再单方面受到没有其他任何一方遵守的承诺的约束，这阻碍了美国在世界各地的裁军和不扩散核武器努力。”
朝鲜最高领导人金正恩在2019年12月28日至31日举行的朝鲜劳动党第七届中央委员会第五次全体会议上讲话。
美国对此有何反应？
唐纳德·特朗普总统似乎对金正日的警告不屑一顾，周二告诉记者，“他喜欢我，我喜欢他，我们相处得很好。”他还声称，金正日已经签署了一份关于无核化的“合同”，尽管不清楚他指的是哪份文件，他认为金正日“言出必行”
同一天，美国国务卿麦克·庞贝告诉福克斯新闻，特朗普政府官员“希望金主席采取不同的路线”，并“做出正确的决定，选择和平与繁荣，而不是冲突与战争。”这位美国最高外交官还告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻，华盛顿没有与首尔举行“大规模”演习，从而“履行了我们的承诺”，希望平壤也能这样做。
周四，国防部长马克·埃斯珀告诉福克斯新闻，他“将敦促金正恩保持克制”，并返回谈判桌。与此同时，他强调五角大楼仍然准备“今晚战斗”——这是部署在朝鲜半岛的美国军队的长期座右铭。
中国对此有何反应？
中国长期以来一直是支持朝鲜的支柱，并在20世纪50年代的战争中与苏联一起帮助朝鲜对抗美国支持的韩国。但是北京反对平壤拥有和试验核武器。尽管如此，中国官员仍试图推动特朗普政府在给予朝鲜制裁减免方面更加灵活。
中国外交部发言人耿爽周四在新闻发布会上表示:“保持对话、促进缓和、推进半岛问题的政治解决符合各方的共同利益。”。“在目前情况下，采取导致紧张局势升级的行动而不是对话是不明智的。”
他说:“我们希望有关各方，特别是朝鲜和美国，坚持对话和协商，相互靠近，积极寻找打破僵局的方法，并为推进政治解决作出具体努力。”。
2019年12月31日，平壤金日成广场，观众在庆祝新年的活动中观看音乐表演。在为期四天的激烈聚会后，金正恩跳过了他的年度新年演讲，但首都的气氛似乎喜气洋洋。
俄罗斯有什么反应？
莫斯科也试图说服华盛顿放松其强硬立场，和北京一起上个月，美国提出了一项联合国安理会决议草案，该决议草案将放宽对朝鲜的某些制裁，以激励这个军事化国家进一步开展外交。然而，美国对这一举措并不感兴趣，并可以像中国和俄罗斯在过去的投票中所做的那样，利用其常任理事国的地位来行使否决权。
俄罗斯常驻维也纳国际组织代表米哈伊尔·乌里扬诺夫周三在推特上就金正日的讲话发表了“围绕无核化问题的令人震惊的进展”。他表示，“迫切需要加强外交努力”，并呼吁采取“更具创造性”的制裁方式。
“因为考虑到美国的言论和军事存在，他们觉得自己不安全。不幸的是，美国有时会刺激扩散。美国对伊朗协议的政策向朝鲜表明，与华盛顿的协议是不可靠的，”他补充说，指的是特朗普在2018年决定单方面退出与伊朗和其他主要大国的核协议。“这就像恶性循环。”
朝鲜有什么样的武器？
朝鲜有一系列导弹2017年首次展示了其发射洲际弹道导弹的能力，这些导弹能够击中美国本土。同年，朝鲜还进行了一次核试验，其威力超过了前五次试验的总和。
根据他的承诺，金正日在2018年没有进行任何核试验或导弹试验。但他去年恢复了大部分短程武器试验，包括前所未见的系统，以抗议停滞的会谈和持续的美韩演习。10月，他还监督了该国自2016年以来的首次潜艇发射弹道导弹试验。
这些试验都违反了联合国安理会限制朝鲜从事此类活动的现有决议，但平壤方面否认这一禁令是非法的，称其自卫是当务之急。特朗普政府基本上拒绝了去年的试验，但重返洲际弹道导弹或核试验可能会导致历史性会谈彻底破裂，这是美国现任总统和朝鲜最高领导人第一次齐聚一堂。这种突破可能意味着冲突的新威胁。
根据核威胁倡议的数据，斯塔提供的图表详细说明了截至2019年11月28日朝鲜导弹试验的时间表。
中东最近的事件是如何影响的？
朝鲜不是特朗普政府所谓“最大压力”运动的唯一目标。伊朗也是美国制裁和军事威胁的目标。自2018年美国对伊朗实施制裁以来，朝鲜与伊朗保持着友好关系，并同情伊朗的困境。
就在五角大楼的前一天进行无人机攻击伊朗革命卫队圣城旅指挥官少将·卡西姆·苏莱曼尼遇害，伊朗总统哈桑·鲁哈尼向金正日致以新年问候，称他希望“世界领导人反对单边主义”
2018年，在白宫退出核协议后，伊朗与华盛顿的不和加剧，导致整个中东，尤其是波斯湾及其周边地区的紧张局势循环。
周四，空袭杀死了伊拉克人民动员部队民兵副团长阿布·迈赫迪·穆汉迪和巴格达国际机场附近的穆罕默德·雷德哈·贾布里议定书负责人苏莱曼尼之后，局势显著升级。这三起暗杀事件发生在一周的流血事件之后，在这次事件中，一名美国国防承包商死亡，多达27名伊拉克战士死于报复性袭击，这在华盛顿驻巴格达大使馆门口引发了暴力示威。美国将国防承包商的死亡归咎于伊朗支持的人民动员部队民兵。
朝鲜对核威慑的执着部分源于美国入侵伊拉克和利比亚，这两个中东大国在五角大楼的帮助下被推翻。
对伊朗的进一步侵略可能会阻止朝鲜与特朗普政府开展外交，尤其是考虑到总统退出国际协议的历史。
2018年8月7日，伊朗外交部长穆罕默德·贾瓦德·扎里夫(左二)在首都德黑兰会见朝鲜外交部长李永浩(右二)。这些国家长期以来一直是美国外交政策的敌人，美国的外交政策以制裁和军事行动威胁为目标。
这篇文章已经更新，包括美国无人驾驶飞机袭击伊朗圣城部队指挥官卡西姆·索莱马尼少将和两名伊拉克人民动员部队最高民兵领导人的消息。
WHAT'S NEXT FOR KIM JONG UN AND DONALD TRUMP? U.S., CHINA AND RUSSIA REACT TO NORTH KOREA'S NEW WARNING
North Korean supreme leader Kim Jong Un skipped his annual New Year's speech for the first time in his seven years of power and instead laid out a new strategy away from talks with the United States during a top meeting convened as his year-end deadline for a denuclearization deal passed.
What did Kim Jong Un say?
Kim's remarks came via a Korean Central News Agency report Tuesday detailing the results of the Fifth Plenary Meeting of the Seventh Central Committee of the ruling Korean Workers' Party in Pyongyang. The young ruler used the four-day session to condemn Washington's unwillingness to bend on granting sanctions relief in exchange for steps toward advancing a potential denuclearization-for-peace deal with the U.S.
Among the highlights of the report was Kim's declaration that "the world will witness a new strategic weapon to be possessed by the DPRK in the near future." (DPRK is an acronym for his country's official name.) He also announced that North Korea may no longer abide by the self-imposed moratorium on nuclear and longer-range missile tests he established in April 2018 as a good faith measure.
Because the U.S. continued to conduct joint drills with South Korea and impose new sanctions, Kim said that his country "has found no grounds to be unilaterally bound any longer by the commitment with no other party to honor, and this has put a damper on its efforts for disarmament and the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons across the world."
North Korean supreme leader Kim Jong Un addresses the 5th Plenary Meeting of the 7th Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea during a session that took place December 28 to 31, 2019.
How did the United States react?
President Donald Trump appeared dismissive of Kim's warning, telling reporters Tuesday, "He likes me, I like him, we get along." He also claimed that Kim had signed a "contract" regarding denuclearization, though it was unclear which document he was referring to, and that he considered Kim "a man of his word."
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told Fox News that same day that Trump administration officials "hope that Chairman Kim will take a different course" and that he "will make the right decision and he'll choose peace and prosperity over conflict and war." The top U.S. diplomat also told CBS News that Washington has "lived up to our commitments" by not holding "large-scale" drills with Seoul, hoping Pyongyang would do the same.
On Thursday, Defense Secretary Mark Esper told Fox News that he "would urge restraint by Kim Jong Un," along with a return to the negotiating table. At the same time, he emphasized that the Pentagon remains prepared to "fight tonight"—a longstanding motto of U.S. forces deployed to the Korean Peninsula.
How did China react?
China has long been a pillar of support for North Korea and joined the Soviet Union in assisting the nation against U.S.-backed South Korea during their 1950s war. But Beijing has opposed Pyongyang's possession and testing of nuclear weapons. Still, Chinese officials have sought to push the Trump administration to be more flexible in granting North Korea sanctions relief.
"It serves the common interests of all sides to sustain dialogue, promote de-escalation and advance the political settlement of the Peninsula issue," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang said at a press briefing Thursday. "Under the current circumstances, it is not advisable to take actions that lead to escalated tensions rather than dialogue."
"We hope relevant sides, the DPRK and the U.S. in particular will stick to dialogue and consultation, move towards each other, actively look for ways to break the deadlock and make concrete efforts to advance political settlement," he added.
Spectators watch a musical performance during an event marking the new year on Pyongyang's Kim Il Sung Square on December 31, 2019. Kim Jong Un skipped his annual New Year's address after a fiery four-day party meeting, but the mood appeared jubilant in the capital.
How did Russia react?
Moscow too has sought to convince Washington to ease its hard-line stance and, together with Beijing, introduced a U.N. Security Council draft resolution last month that would soften certain sanctions against North Korea in the interest of incentivizing further diplomacy from the militarized state. The U.S. has shown little interest in the move, however, and could use its permanent member status to veto, as China and Russia have done during past votes.
Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia's permanent representative to Vienna-based international organizations, tweeted Wednesday on "alarming developments around the issue of #denuclearization" in reference to Kim's speech. He said "there is urgent need to intensify diplomatic efforts" and called for a "more creative" approach to sanctions.
"Because they don't feel themselves safe in the light of U.S. rhetoric and military presence. Unfortunately US sometimes stimulates proliferation. US policy on IranDeal demonstrates to North Korea that deals with Washington are not reliable," he added, referring to Trump's decision in 2018 to unilaterally walk away from the nuclear agreement with Iran and other major powers. "It's like vicious circle."
What kinds of weapons does North Korea have?
North Korea has an array of missiles of different ranges and in 2017 demonstrated for the first time its ability to fire intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of hitting the U.S. mainland. That same year, North Korea also conducted a nuclear test with a yield more powerful than all previous five tests combined.
In line with his pledge, Kim conducted no nuclear or missile tests throughout 2018. But he resumed mostly short-range weapons tests last year, including never-before-seen systems, in protest of stalled talks and continued U.S.-South Korea exercises. In October, he also oversaw the country's first submarine-launched ballistic missile test since 2016.
These tests were all violations of existing U.N. Security Council resolutions restricting North Korea from such activities, but Pyongyang has dismissed this ban as illegitimate, saying its self-defense is a priority. The Trump administration has mostly brushed off last year's tests, but a return to ICBM or nuclear testing could present a total break in historic talks that for the first time ever brought together a sitting U.S. president and North Korean supreme leader. Such a break could mean new threats of conflict.
A graphic provided by Statista details a timeline of North Korean missile tests as of November 28, 2019, based on data from the Nuclear Threat Initiative.
How do recent events in the Middle East factor in?
North Korea is not the only target of the Trump administration's so-called "maximum pressure" campaign. Iran, too, has been the target of U.S. sanctions and military threats. North Korea has friendly relations with Iran and has sympathized with its plight as the U.S. imposed sanctions on the country since 2018.
Just one day before the Pentagon conducted a drone strike that killed Iranian Revolutionary Guard Quds Force commander Major General Qassem Soleimani, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani sent a New Year's greeting to Kim, saying that he hoping "world leaders would oppose unilateralism."
Iran's feud with Washington heightened in 2018 after the White House walked away from a nuclear deal, leading to a cycle of tensions across the Middle East, especially in and around the Persian Gulf.
The situation escalated significantly Thursday after the airstrike killed Soleimani, Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces militia deputy head Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, and head of protocol Mohammed Redha al-Jabri near Baghdad International Airport. The triple assassination followed a week of bloodshed during which a U.S. defense contractor died and that left up to 27 Iraqi fighters dead in retaliatory strikes that stirred a violent demonstration at the gates of Washington's embassy in Baghdad. The U.S. blamed an Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces militia for the defense contractor's death.
North Korea's fixation on nuclear deterrence was partially born out of U.S. invasions of Iraq and Libya, two Middle Eastern powers overthrown with help from the Pentagon.
Further aggression against Iran may dissuade North Korea from conducting diplomacy with the Trump administration, especially given the president's history of backing out of international agreements.
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif (2nd L) talks to North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho (2nd R) during their meeting in the capital Tehran on August 7, 2018. The countries have long been foes of U.S. foreign policy, which targets them with sanctions and threats of military action.
This article has been updated to include news of the U.S. drone strike that killed Iranian Quds Force commander Major-General Qassem Soleimani and two top Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces militia leaders.
