民意测验专家称，如果伊丽莎白·沃伦参议员最终退出，伯尼·桑德斯参议员不一定会成为2020年民主党竞选的明显领先者，尽管他可能会从她的退出中受益。
周二晚上，爱荷华州的初选辩论以马萨诸塞州民主党人沃伦的拒绝告终和桑德斯握手在他们竞选活动的不和中。
沃伦声称桑德斯在2018年12月的一次私下会面中告诉她，一名女性无法击败唐纳德·特朗普总统。但是佛蒙特州的独立桑德斯否认了这一点，争论在辩论中展开。
两位参议员在竞选中有着相似的进步空间，他们的支持基础之间也有一些自然的交叉。但沃伦的支持者会涌向桑德斯，这并不是必然的。
昆尼皮亚克大学民调分析师蒂姆·马洛伊告诉记者新闻周刊沃伦的支持者可以在比赛中“接触许多不同的人”，包括印第安纳州南本德市前市长皮特·巴蒂吉格。
马洛说左翼候选人的支持者“不一定能从一个人转移到另一个人”
“桑德斯和沃伦之间有很大的不同，尽管事实上他们都是用宽笔刷画的，或者比其他人更左倾，”马洛告诉记者新闻周刊。
早晨咨询高级编辑卡梅伦·伊斯利告诉记者新闻周刊沃伦和桑德斯“对境况不佳的美国政府有着相似的看法，是竞争该党提名的两个最自由的候选人”
伊斯利说:“从这个角度来看，他自然会从她的退出中受益，如果她支持他，这可能会让更多的支持者加入他的阵营。”。
但是，尽管沃伦的支持者搬到桑德斯，“肯定会让比赛更有竞争力”，伊斯利警告说，“很难看到他成为无可争议的领先者。”
伊斯利在邮件中说:“虽然他有一个非常稳固的支持者群体，但他并没有扩大他的支持联盟。”。
伊斯利指出，晨间咨询在2019年的第一次跟踪调查中，桑德斯在民主党初选选民中的支持率为23%，最近的一次调查也是如此。
伊斯利告诉记者:“他的局外人身份可能会成为2020年的障碍，而不是2016年的恩惠，当时许多支持他的投票都是为了抗议希拉里·克林顿。”新闻周刊。
"桑德斯越接近赢得提名，政党机构就越有可能努力击败他。"
据美国《每日邮报》报道，在全国民主党初选中，前副总统乔拜登以27.2%的支持率位居第一，比第二名桑德斯领先8个百分点真正的透明政治平均。
桑德斯的支持率为19.2%，高于沃伦的第三名，沃伦得到大约16%的民主党选民的支持。
最近的民意测验发现拜登和桑德斯之间的差距越来越小。将调查结果与昆尼皮亚克大学和早上咨询周一公布的数据显示，前副总统仅领先桑德斯6个百分点。
晨间咨询调查还发现桑德斯(23%)和沃伦(14%)之间存在9个百分点的差距，这一趋势对伯尼2020年竞选来说看起来不错。
共和党初选的平均民调显示，自从沃伦去年10月9日与拜登并驾齐驱以来，她的数字已经下降了10个百分点。桑德斯受益于5个百分点的提振。
周一发布的早间咨询和昆尼皮亚克民调显示，沃伦的支持率有所下降。
2020年1月14日，伊丽莎白·沃伦和伯尼·桑德斯在爱荷华州得梅因德雷克大学校园第七次民主党初选辩论后发表讲话。
前者发现沃伦的评级自11月3日以来下降了6个百分点。后者发现她比10月中旬排名第一时低了14个百分点。
相比之下，桑德斯在同一时期将昆尼皮亚克大学的民调数字提高了8个百分点，晨间咨询的表现也提高了3个百分点。
“我想你可以通过观察这些数字来说，桑德斯让他的状态比沃伦更稳定和稳固，沃伦在这里有点像过山车，”马洛说新闻周刊。
轮询数据似乎支持这种观点。最新的昆尼皮亚克初选调查发现，42%的桑德斯支持者都是坚定的支持者。只有28%的沃伦支持者这么说。
此外，70%的沃伦支持者还表示，他们可能会在初选前改变主意。
马洛伊说，尽管沃伦目前的投票基础不稳定，但他“暂时看不到她去任何地方”。
在晨间咨询周一的调查中，当被问及他们的第二选择偏好时，超过三分之一(34%)的沃伦支持者选择了桑德斯。
不到四分之一(23%)的人倾向于拜登。同样数量的桑德斯支持者选择沃伦(33%)，稍微多一点的人认为拜登是第二名(27%)。
但是昆尼皮亚克民调也发现，如果沃伦和桑德斯的第一选择退出，支持他们的大部分选民会落后于另一位进步候选人。
52%的沃伦支持者说，如果桑德斯退出，他们会选择她；而57%的沃伦支持者说，如果他退出竞选，他们会支持她。
伊斯利告诉我新闻周刊到目前为止，2020年竞选中的大部分运动“都是由受过大学教育的高收入白人自由主义者推动的——沃伦过去几个月的上升和下降趋势就是一个很好的例子。”
他说沃伦失去的一些支持转移给了桑德斯和拜登，而巴蒂吉和迈克尔布隆伯格也看到了他们的人数上升。
伊斯利说:“民主党初选选民中这一相对不稳定的群体不止一次改变了主意，在刺激沃伦飙升后，他们也对她最近的下跌负有主要责任。”。
当被问及根据沃伦的民调数字，他认为她会在竞选中坚持多久时，伊斯利强调了早期提名竞争的重要性，特别是爱荷华州和新罕布什尔州。
他说:“如果她赢得了其中一场或两场比赛，也许一些更加多样化的州的选民会注意到并开始支持她。”。
BERNIE SANDERS WILL BENEFIT IF ELIZABETH WARREN DROPS OUT, POLLSTERS SAY—BUT WOULD IT BE ENOUGH TO BEAT BIDEN?
Senator Bernie Sanders will not necessarily become the clear frontrunner in the 2020 Democratic race if Senator Elizabeth Warren eventually drops out, pollsters say, though he is likely to benefit from her exit.
The Iowa primary debate on Tuesday night ended with Warren, a Massachusetts Democrat, declining to shake Sanders' hand amid a feud between their campaigns.
Warren claims that Sanders told her in a private December 2018 meeting a woman could not beat President Donald Trump. But Vermont independent Sanders denies this, and the dispute played out in the debate.
The two senators share a similar progressive space in the contest and there is some natural crossover between their support bases. But it is not a given that Warren supporters would flock to Sanders.
Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy told Newsweek that Warren supporters could "go to many different people" in the contest, including Pete Buttigieg, the former mayor of South Bend, Indiana.
Malloy said backers of the left-wing candidates were "not necessarily transferable from one to the other."
"There's a big difference between Sanders and Warren, despite the fact they're both painted with a broad brush being progressive, or left more left of center than the others," Malloy told Newsweek.
Morning Consult senior editor Cameron Easley told Newsweek that Warren and Sanders "have similar views on what's ailing American government and are the two most liberal candidates vying for the party's nomination."
"From that perspective, he would naturally benefit from her exit, and if she were to endorse him, it could move even more of her supporters into his camp," Easley said.
But while Warren supporters moving to Sanders would "certainly make the race more competitive," Easley cautioned that it was "tough to see him becoming the undisputed front-runner."
"While he has a very solid bloc of supporters, he hasn't broadened his coalition of support," Easley said over email.
Easley noted that Morning Consult's first tracking poll in 2019 had Sanders at 23 percent among Democratic primary voters and so did its latest poll.
"His outsider status may be a hindrance in 2020 instead of the boon it was in 2016, when many votes cast in his favor were in protest of Hillary Clinton," Easley told Newsweek.
"The closer Sanders gets to winning the nomination, the harder the party establishment is likely to fight to defeat him."
As national Democratic primary polling stands, former vice president Joe Biden sits in first position at 27.2 percent, an eight-point lead over second-place Sanders, according to the RealClearPolitics average.
Sanders is on 19.2 percent, above Warren in third place, who is backed by around 16 percent of the Democratic Party electorate.
Recent polls found the gap between Biden and Sanders to be narrower. Separate survey results from Quinnipiac University and Morning Consult published Monday showed the former vice president had only a six-point lead over Sanders.
The Morning Consult poll also found a nine-point gap between Sanders (23 percent) and Warren (14 percent) and the trajectory looks good for the Bernie 2020 campaign.
The RCP average of primary polls shows Warren's numbers have plunged by 10 points since she was neck-and-neck with Biden on October 9 last year. Sanders has benefited from a five-point boost.
Morning Consult and Quinnipiac polls released on Monday show downward shifts in Warren's support.
Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders speak after the seventh Democratic primary debate at the Drake University campus in Des Moines, Iowa on January 14, 2020.
The former found Warren's rating had fallen six points since November 3. The latter found her to be 14 points down from mid-October when she was in first place.
By comparison, Sanders has boosted his Quinnipiac University polling numbers by eight points over the same period, and his Morning Consult performance has improved by three points.
"I think you can say by looking at the numbers that Sanders has made his state more steady and solid than Warren, who has had sort of a little bit of a roller coaster here," Malloy told Newsweek.
Polling data appears to support this view going forward. The latest Quinnipiac primary survey found 42 percent of Sanders supporters were fixed in. Only 28 percent of Warren supporters said the same.
Moreover, 70 percent of Warren's backers also said they might change their minds before the primary.
Malloy said he could not see Warren "going anywhere for a while," despite her currently volatile polling base.
Asked for their second choice preferences in Morning Consult's Monday survey, more than a third (34 percent) of Warren backers opted for Sanders.
Just under a quarter (23 percent) leaned towards Biden. A similar number of Sanders supporters opted for Warren (33 percent) and slightly more looked to Biden as a number two (27 percent).
But the Quinnipiac poll also found that larger portions of voters backing Warren and Sanders would get behind the other progressive candidate if their first choice dropped out.
Fifty-two percent of Warren supporters said they would opt for Sanders if she quit while 57 percent of his supporters said they would back her if he left the race.
Easley told Newsweek that most of the movement in the 2020 race so far "has been driven by white, college-educated liberals with higher incomes—and Warren's upward and downward trends over the past few months is a case in point."
He said some of the support Warren has lost went over to Sanders and Biden, while Buttigieg and Michael Bloomberg have also seen their numbers rise.
"This comparatively volatile bloc of the Democratic primary electorate has changed its mind more than once and after fueling Warren's surge, they're also mostly responsible for her recent declines," Easley said.
Asked how long he thought Warren would stay in the race in light of her polling numbers, Easley stressed the importance of the early nominating contests, particularly Iowa and New Hampshire.
"If she wins one or both of those races, maybe voters in some of the more diverse states set to weigh in a little further down the road will take note and start supporting her," he said.
"But if she flames out, it's hard to see much of a rationale for her staying in."
