新罕布什尔州将是第二个正式参与2020年选举的州，下周选民将前往投票站，选出他们希望看到的民主党总统候选人。
新英格兰州的首次全国初选将于2月11日举行。这是爱荷华州预选后候选人的下一站，但可能会有很多更大的聚光灯投票后的报道问题困扰着这个中西部的州。
截至周四中午，爱荷华州仍未宣布正式的获胜者，尽管伯尼·桑德斯和皮特·巴蒂吉与超过95%的选区报道保持着虚拟的联系。民主党全国委员会主席汤姆·佩雷斯呼吁在该州进行改革，并在推特上宣称“适可而止”
缺乏经过验证的结果，虽然让候选人和公众感到沮丧，但可能不会对新罕布什尔州产生重大影响。花岗岩州并不总是跟随爱荷华州选择他们喜欢的总统候选人。新罕布什尔州和爱荷华州最后一次投票给同一个民主党候选人是在2004年，当时约翰·克里正在竞选白宫。
尽管合并后，这两个州在预测最终候选人方面有着良好的历史。一个候选人在两个州都没有获胜，但仍然获得了党的提名，这是非常不寻常的，但是被提名者至少失去其中一个也是很常见的。例如，2016年，希拉里·克林顿赢得了爱荷华州，但失去了新罕布什尔州。
自1976年以来，新罕布什尔州的选民在九场选举中最终以第一名的身份获得了五名民主党候选人提名:1976年和1980年的吉米·卡特、1998年的迈克尔·杜卡基斯、2000年的阿尔·戈尔和2004年的约翰·克里。但是只有一个候选人(卡特)赢得了大选并成为总统。
但是新罕布什尔大学的政治学家、民意测验专家安德鲁·史密斯警告说，不要看花岗岩州的选举记录来预测2020年将会发生什么。
“你不能回去看看过去发生了什么，看看将来会发生什么。这个州一年比一年不同，”史密斯说。
2020年2月4日，新罕布什尔州米尔福德，民主党总统候选人伯尼·桑德斯参议员在竞选集会上与人们互动。新罕布什尔州初选将于2月11日举行。
新罕布什尔州是最难进行投票或预测的早期投票州之一。这是因为它允许未申报的居民(那些没有在政党登记的人)在民主党或共和党初选中投票。它也是全国人口流动率最高的国家之一，这意味着在选举中投票的人从一个周期到下一个周期有很大的变化。
但今年可能会是2016年的重演。桑德斯在上一轮选举中击败克林顿，赢得新罕布什尔州20个百分点的选票。现在，离初选开始只有几天了，桑德斯再次领先民调。
这位佛蒙特州参议员在周四公布的蒙莫斯大学民意调查中名列第一，有24%的选民支持他。但igieg以20%的支持率位居第二，乔·拜登以17%的支持率位居前三。
蒙莫斯的调查紧随波士顿环球报/WBZ-TV/萨福克大学的最新民意调查，该调查也显示桑德斯位居榜首。在那项调查中，桑德斯占25%，而巴蒂吉占19%。紧随其后的是拜登和沃伦，支持率分别为12%和11%。
在爱荷华州的混乱中，桑德斯在新罕布什尔州全速前进。周四，这位参议员宣称在中西部州取得了“非常强有力的胜利”，理由是他在普选中比巴特吉有优势。
桑德斯在新闻发布会上说:“当6000多人支持你而不是你最近的对手时，我们在新英格兰北部称之为胜利。”。
WHO WON THE NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY IN PAST ELECTIONS AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR 2020
New Hampshire will be the second state to officially weigh in on the 2020 election as voters head to polls next week to pick the Democrat they want to see nominated for president.
The New England state's first-in-the-nation primary takes place on February 11. It's the next stop for candidates after the Iowa caucuses but could have a much bigger spotlight after vote reporting problems plagued the Midwestern state.
As of midday on Thursday, Iowa still hadn't declared an official winner though Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg were in a virtual tie with over 95 percent of precincts reporting. Democratic National Committee chairman Tom Perez called for a recanvass in the state, declaring on Twitter that "enough is enough."
The lack of verified results, while frustrating for candidates and the public, may not have a big impact on New Hampshire. The Granite State doesn't always follow Iowa's lead in choosing their preferred presidential nominee. The last time New Hampshire voted for the same Democratic candidate as Iowa was in 2004, when John Kerry was running for the White House.
Though when combined, the two states together have a good history of predicting the eventual nominee. It's extremely unusual for a candidate not to win either state but still emerge with the party's nomination, but it's also common for the nominee to lose at least one of them. For example, in 2016 Hillary Clinton won Iowa but lost New Hampshire.
Since 1976, New Hampshire voters have given a first-place finish to five eventual Democratic nominees out of nine contests: Jimmy Carter in 1976 and 1980, Michael Dukakis in 1998, Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004. But only one of those candidates (Carter) went on to win the general election and become president.
But pollster Andrew Smith, a political scientist at the University of New Hampshire, warned against looking at the Granite State's election record to predict what will happen in 2020.
"You can't go back and look what's happened in the past to see what's going to happen in the future. The state is so different from year to year," Smith said.
Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) interacts with people at a campaign rally on February 04, 2020 in Milford, New Hampshire. The New Hampshire primary is February 11.
New Hampshire is one of the more difficult early-voting states to poll or predict. That's because it allows undeclared residents (those who aren't registered with a political party) to vote in either the Democratic or Republican primary. It also has one of the highest population turnover rates in the country, which means that the people voting in an election is significantly changed from one cycle to the next.
But this year could be a repeat of 2016. Sanders won New Hampshire in the last election cycle, defeating Clinton by 20 percentage points. Now, with just days until the primary begins, Sanders is once again leading the polls.
The Vermont senator was in first place in a Monmouth University poll released on Thursday with 24 percent support from likely voters. Buttigieg was in second with 20 percent support and Joe Biden rounded out the top three slots with 17 percent support.
The Monmouth survey came on the heels of the latest Boston Globe/WBZ-TV/Suffolk University poll, which also showed Sanders on top. In that survey, Sanders is at 25 percent and Buttigieg at 19 percent. Trailing behind are Biden and Warren, with 12 percent and 11 percent support, respectively.
Sanders is moving full steam ahead in New Hampshire amid the Iowa chaos. On Thursday, the senator declared a "very strong victory" in the Midwestern state, citing his advantage over Buttigieg in the popular vote.
"When 6,000 more people come out for you than your nearest opponent, we here in northern New England call that a victory," Sanders said in a press conference.
