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弗拉基米尔·普京想一直掌权到去世:支持民主的活动家

2020-02-22 11:20   美国新闻网   - 

柳波夫·索波尔知道在俄罗斯民主工作的危险性。这位32岁的律师是反对派运动的老手,曾与著名的民主派政治家阿列克谢·纳瓦尔尼共事多年,后者一直是弗拉基米尔·普京总统的眼中钉。

索波尔找到了她的方法国际头条作为去年最杰出的人物之一示范反对禁止独立候选人参加莫斯科城市选举。索波尔是其中之一。她被警方逮捕,她在几十名记者面前被拖走的镜头成为骚乱中最持久的画面之一。

Sobol还进行了为期一个月的绝食抗议,但由于一名被拘留的参加抗议活动的竞选助手的健康问题而暂停了罢工。

她的家人一直被不明身份的跟踪者跟踪——包括她六岁的儿子——她的丈夫在2016年被一名身份不明的男子在他们家附近下毒,她说这次袭击是由普京的助手叶夫根尼·普里戈津组织的,他也被指控参与了俄罗斯对2016年美国总统大选的干涉。

和...说话新闻周刊在日内瓦人权和民主峰会上,索波尔说,她和她的竞选伙伴们将不顾危险,继续努力挫败普京统治俄罗斯的计划。

2019年8月3日,在俄罗斯莫斯科的抗议活动中,俄罗斯警察拘留了反对派候选人和律师柳波夫·索波尔。

“大多数俄罗斯人想为自己的权利而战,”索波尔说。“人们走上街头,去法院——任何地方为自己的权利而斗争...这就是为什么去年夏天成千上万的人走上街头,”

“他们只是想选择他们的领导人,但他们做不到,”她补充道。“他们不想坐在家里,让普京随心所欲。”

普京正准备在2024年总统任期结束后继续掌权。宪法不允许连续三届任期,因此普京将利用宪法修正案来延长他作为国家领导人的时间,或许可以通过建立一个新的角色来坐在俄罗斯的最高领导层。

索波尔暗示“即使普京也不知道”他到底会做什么,但目标仍然很简单:终身控制。“普京不想离开办公室,”她说。“我认为他想掌权并成为国家元首,直到他的生命结束。”

自1999年上台以来,无论是作为总统还是总理,普京都享有很高的支持率。这位67岁的老人一直在努力保持一种形象,这种形象是为了确保广泛的受欢迎程度而精心打造的,这种形象得到了大众媒体以及近年来社交媒体和互联网几乎完全控制的支持。

普京的统治并非没有问题。这位四届总统和两届总理不止一次经受住了公众的不满,无论是对他处理2000年库尔斯克号潜艇事故的不满,2011年的反腐败抗议,还是对2018年提高退休年龄提议的普遍愤怒。

下图由提供Statista,显示了2018年普京政府在努力应对养老金抗议时,公众对他的不赞同程度激增。

这张信息图显示了弗拉基米尔·普京总统执政期间对他的支持。

自养老金抗议以来,普京的支持率一直很低。尽管受到2014年吞并克里米亚和2018年成功举办国际足联世界杯的鼓舞,但俄罗斯长期以来一直在与低迷的经济表现、缓慢的工资增长和糟糕的生活质量作斗争。

反对党是被允许的,但俄罗斯民主是一个选举舞台,公民只能为经过审查的“反对者”投抗议票,而且人数永远不足以威胁普京的权力。

真正的反对被压制,不管是通过法庭还是更邪恶的方法。多名记者、活动家和政治家被暗杀。政治评论家鲍里斯·涅姆佐夫2015年,他在克里姆林宫附近的一座桥上被枪杀,是该国最著名的反对派人物之一。

“在俄罗斯参与民主反对派是危险的,”索波尔说。“这是我们为争取自己的权利而付出的代价。”

这篇文章已经更新为包含一个信息图表。

 

VLADIMIR PUTIN WANTS TO STAY IN POWER UNTIL HE DIES, LEADING PRO-DEMOCRACY CAMPAIGNER SAYS

Lyubov Sobol knows the dangers of pro-democracy work in Russia. The 32-year-old lawyer is a veteran of the opposition movement, having worked for several years with prominent pro-democracy politician Alexei Navalny, a constant thorn in President Vladimir Putin's side.

Sobol found her way into international headlines as one of the most prominent figures in last year's demonstrations against a ban on independent candidates running in Moscow's city elections. Sobol was among them. She was arrested by police and footage of her being dragged away in front of dozens of reporters became one of the most enduring images of the unrest.

Sobol also undertook a month-long hunger strike in protest, but suspended the strike over health concerns for a detained campaign aide who had joined the protest.

Her family has been followed by unknown stalkers—including her six-year-old son—and her husband was poisoned by an unidentified man near their home in 2016, an attack she says was organized by Putin aide Yevgeny Prigozhin, who is also accused of involvement in Russia's meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential race.

Speaking to Newsweek from the Geneva Summit for Human Rights and Democracy, Sobol said she and her fellow campaigners would continue their fight to frustrate Putin's plan to rule Russia for life, regardless of the danger.

Russian policemen detain opposition candidate and lawyer Lyubov Sobol during a protest in Moscow, Russia, on August 3, 2019.

"Most people in Russia want to fight for their rights," Sobol said. "People go to the streets, go to the courts—anywhere to fight for their rights... that's why thousands of people went to the streets last summer."

"They just want to choose their leaders, but they can't do it," she added. "They don't want to sit in their homes and just let Putin do what he wants."

Putin is positioning himself to retain power long after his presidential term ends in 2024. The constitution does not allow for three consecutive terms, so Putin will use constitutional amendments to extend his time as the nation's leader, perhaps by establishing a new role that will sit at the top of the Russian hierarchy.

Sobol suggested that "even Putin doesn't know" exactly what he will do, but that the goal remains a simple one: lifelong control. "Putin doesn't want to leave the office," she said. "I think he wants to be in power and be the head of state until his end of life."

Putin has enjoyed high approval ratings, whether as president or prime minister, since he came to power in 1999. The 67 year old has sought to retain an image crafted to ensure widespread popularity, bolstered by near-total control of mass media and, in recent years, social media and the internet.

Putin's rule has not been without its issues. The four-time president and two-time prime minister has weathered public discontent more than once, whether over his handling of the Kursk submarine disaster in 2000, anti-corruption protests in 2011, or widespread anger at proposals to raise the pension age in 2018.

The graphic below, provided by Statista, shows a spike in disapproval for Putin in 2018 while his government was grappling with the pensions protests.

This infographic shows support for President Vladimir Putin throughout his time in power.

Since the pension protests, Putin's approval rating has struggled. Though buoyed by the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the successful FIFA World Cup in 2018, Russia has long struggled with sluggish economic performance, slow wage growth and abysmal quality of life.

Opposition parties are allowed, but Russian democracy is electoral theater in which citizens can cast protest votes only for vetted "opponents" and never in enough numbers to threaten Putin's grip on power.

True opposition is suppressed, whether through the courts or more nefarious methods. Multiple journalists, activists and politicians have been assassinated. The political critic Boris Nemtsovwas one of the most prominent opposition figures in the country when he was shot dead on a bridge within sight of the Kremlin in 2015.

"It is dangerous to be engaged in democratic opposition in Russia," Sobol said. "It's the price which we pay for fighting for our rights."

This article has been updated to include an infographic.

 

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