随着确诊冠状病毒病例超过80，000例，随着意大利新的疫情爆发和伊朗，以及韩国日益恶化的局势，股票市场暴跌，分析师担心健康危机可能引发全球衰退。
但其他人警告称，经济衰退的风险很低，中国可能会在3月底遏制新的冠状病毒，从而避免经济危机。此外，互联网正在帮助抵消一些经济损失。
美国道琼斯工业平均指数、S&P 500指数和纳斯达克指数周一的大幅下跌持续到周二。英国富时100指数和日本日经225指数也出现下跌。唐纳德·特朗普总统将股市作为他经济成功的证据，据说非常愤怒。
中国是全球第二大经济体，其制造业和生产部门是世界其他地区的工厂，由于对冠状病毒的反应，中国经济受到了严重打击。全球企业是现在受到供应链问题的困扰。
在病毒威胁消退之前，中国所有城市都处于封锁状态，工厂和办公室暂时关闭。在中国应对冠状病毒的同时，去中国旅游的人越来越少，进一步软化了需求。
格兰特·桑顿公司的首席经济学家、美联储的顾问黛安·斯旺克在周一发布在推特上的一条消息中写道，冠状病毒“正在迅速成为一种经济流行病”
周二上午，拉文斯克夫特集团首席投资官凯文·博舍在CNBC发表讲话，称冠状病毒是“一个潜在的黑天鹅事件”，有“将全球经济推向衰退的风险”
在上周五的一份报告中，BCA研究公司的首席全球策略师彼得·贝瑞津警告说，市场对冠状病毒造成的经济威胁“过于自满”。Berezin说，如果它发展成一场大流行，它“将扰乱全球经济，导致像2008/09年那样严重的衰退。”
“对除必需品以外的大多数物品的需求将会崩溃。商务和休闲旅行将会失败。全球供应链会失灵。唯一的安慰是，经济衰退之后很可能会出现强劲的“V型”复苏，”贝瑞津写道。
冠状病毒的发源地中国遭受的痛苦最大。绝大多数病例和死亡发生在中国大陆。许多市民被隔离在家中，尽管冠状病毒现在已经在全球传播。
面对他们自己滚雪球般的爆发，韩国、意大利和伊朗正在采取紧急措施并对公民实施限制以防止病毒的进一步传播。这些最新的发展令投资者感到恐慌，随着世界卫生组织密切关注以下迹象，经济衰退的传言也越来越多这种情况已经成为一种流行病。
咨询公司牛津经济咨询公司上周表示，如果冠状病毒成为一种蔓延到亚洲以外的流行病，它可能会使全球经济损失1.1万亿美元。卫报报道。
“冠状病毒可能引发全球衰退的风险不能被忽略，”经济学家智库(EIU)的蔡林·伯奇全球经济学家告诉记者新闻周刊。“然而，我们估计，遏制措施将不得不拖到2020年下半年，以便对全球贸易需求和消费者支出造成干扰，而这是产生这种结果所必需的。”
伯奇说，EIU“根据对这种新型冠状病毒的科学研究和当局的反应速度，预计该病毒将于3月底被控制在中国境内”。这将对中国第一季度的国内生产总值造成重大打击，但考虑到下半年的反弹。"
因此，EIU将2020年全球经济增长预测下调至2.2%，较之前的预测降低了0.1%，原因是中国冠状病毒相关的经济放缓以及其他地方的连锁反应。
伯奇表示:“如果遏制病毒的时间表出现偏差，我们可能会进一步下调2020年全球国内生产总值(GDP)增长预测。”。“随着病毒扩散到其他几个国家，包括伊朗、意大利、韩国和日本，这种风险在最近几周显著增加。”
瑞银全球财富管理首席经济学家保罗·多诺万(Paul Donovan)周二上午在一份简报中表示，金融市场正在对“对病毒的恐惧”做出反应
“病毒的经济损害主要是通过对病毒的恐惧。意大利的隔离措施导致投资者担心恐惧会蔓延到欧洲消费者，”多诺万说。
多诺万告诉我新闻周刊这种恐惧具有最大的经济影响，因为它改变了人们和决策者的行为。他说，衰退的风险是存在的，“但在现阶段仍然相对较低”，普遍的共识是，病毒将是一个相对短暂的问题。
多诺万表示:“最近全球增长放缓主要是由投资放缓造成的。”他指责特朗普总统的贸易和税收政策造成了“不确定性”。
“当你不知道明天的推特会说些什么的时候，人们不愿意投资全球供应链。不愿投资全球供应链的情绪将因病毒而加剧，但不会变得更糟。”
多诺万警告说，由于经济增长主要由消费者支出支撑，“这是对病毒的恐惧可能造成最大损害的地方。”
多诺万告诉记者:“如果消费者变得害怕(不管是理性的还是非理性的)，那么消费支出的疲软可能会对经济造成损害。”新闻周刊。
“如果这种担忧局限在地理上，而病毒的影响是短暂的(例如，如果这主要是一个亚洲问题，而且主要发生在第一季度)，那么经济衰退的风险就很低。
“我认为，总的来说，目前的情况就是这样。如果美国或欧洲发生了什么事情来传播恐惧——比目前的情况更为严重——那么消费者疲软和衰退的风险将会增加。”
国际货币基金组织仍然预测今年全球经济增长3.3%。但国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯塔琳娜·格奥尔基耶娃(Kristalina Georgieva)警告称，最近经济增长的复苏正受到冠状病毒的威胁。
“自从做出这一预测以来，COVID-19病毒——一种全球卫生紧急事件——已经扰乱了中国的经济活动，并可能危及经济复苏，”她在周末与20国集团(G20)财长在沙特阿拉伯会晤后发表的一份声明中表示。
“最重要的是，这是一场人类悲剧，但它也有负面的经济影响。我向20国集团报告说，即使在快速遏制病毒的情况下，中国和世界其他地区的增长也会受到影响。
“当然，我们都希望出现V形的快速复苏——但考虑到不确定性，为更不利的情况做好准备是明智的。”
多诺万警告称，全球总国内生产总值——全球经济总量——不是一个有用的指标，因为中国庞大的经济扭曲了这一数字。他说，中国经济放缓对美国或欧洲的直接影响是“有限的”。
他还解释说，病毒已经改变了供应和需求，但并非所有这些都是负面的，活动也可能发生变化，比如人们在可能的情况下在家工作，这抵消了一些损害。
中国产量减少是不好的，因为它会影响供应链。但是，尽管恐惧降低了对某些服务的需求，比如旅游和某些休闲活动，但居家人士转而选择网上购物，并在网上消费更多。
“这是与非典或[以前的病毒爆发相比的关键区别之一]——近年来网上购物的兴起将缓和对需求的影响。多诺万说:“总体来说，这种影响仍然是负面的，但在没有亚马逊、网飞或网络游戏的情况下，这种影响就没那么负面了。”新闻周刊。
展望美国经济，EIU的伯奇告诉记者新闻周刊与许多其他国家相比，中国对贸易的依赖程度更低，这将保护中国免受冠状病毒影响的最严重影响。
“然而，依赖中国消费市场的美国企业，包括科技行业，将受到中国近期需求急剧下滑的影响，”伯奇说。
“过去一年，商业投资已经明显放缓，部分原因是外部需求减弱，包括来自中国的需求，”她继续表示，并补充称，EIU预计今年投资将出现收缩。
“运输和进口成本也可能上升，尤其是如果病毒在3月底前无法得到控制；这可能会导致中国的供应中断，迫使美国消费者考虑更昂贵的替代商品。”
瑞银的多诺万表示，即使中国及其他地区的情况恢复正常，这也可能是一种“新常态”，因为病毒可能引发持久的变化。“病毒的长期影响不一定清楚，”多诺万告诉记者新闻周刊。
“例如，我认为技术正逐步将我们推向生产本地化(供应链变得越来越短，越来越不复杂，越来越多的生产靠近最终消费者)。
“这将作为正常事件过程中逐渐变化的结果而有机地发生。然而，冠状病毒可能会加速改变生产模式所需的一些投资决策。”
多诺万将2012年伦敦奥运会称为“一个可以改变工作习惯的外部事件”，因为该市工人中弹性工作(包括在家工作)的随后增加似乎源于这一事件。
“冠状病毒引起的家庭工作也可能发生同样的事情，”他说。
“这对基础设施、办公密度等有长期影响。在线零售在整体零售中所占的份额往往呈上升趋势，但当一些事情发生时，会推动更多人在线，而且一旦在线，人们很少会离线。
“因此，病毒爆发后，我们恢复经济活动的方式可能会有所不同。”
2020年2月25日，纽约市，交易者在纽约证券交易所的交易大厅里完成周二的交易记录。由于对冠状病毒成为全球流行病的担忧日益加深，股市周二暴跌，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌近900点。
CORONAVIRUS SPARKS TALK OF GLOBAL RECESSION AND 'ECONOMIC PANDEMIC' AS STOCK MARKETS DIVE
As the number of confirmed coronavirus cases surpassed 80,000, with new outbreaks in Italy and Iran and a worsening situation in South Korea, stock markets plummeted amid analysts' fears that the health emergency might spark a global recession.
But others cautioned that the risk of recession is low and China will likely contain the new coronavirus by the end of March, staving off an economic crisis. Moreover, the internet is helping offset some of the economic damage.
Monday's sharp falls on America's Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and NASDAQ indices bled into Tuesday. So did drops on the FTSE 100 in the U.K. and the Nikkei 225 in Japan. President Donald Trump, who holds up the stock markets as evidence of his economic success, is reportedly furious.
China's economy, which is the second-largest on the planet, and whose manufacturing and production sectors serve as a workshop to the rest of the world, has taken a severe hit because of its response to coronavirus. Global businesses are now suffering from supply chain issues.
Entire cities in China are on lockdown and factories and offices temporarily closed until the virus threat has receded. Fewer people are traveling to China while it tackles the coronavirus, softening demand further.
Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton and an adviser to the Federal Reserve, wrote in a message posted to Twitter on Monday that the coronavirus is "rapidly becoming an economic pandemic."
Speaking on CNBC on Tuesday morning, Kevin Boscher, chief investment officer of Ravenscroft Group, called the coronavirus "a potential black swan event" that "risks pushing the global economy closer to recession."
In a note last Friday, Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research, warned that markets were "too complacent" about the economic threat posed by the coronavirus. If it develops into a major pandemic, Berezin said it "would rattle the global economy, leading to a recession as deep as the one in 2008/09."
"Demand for most items other than necessities would collapse. Business and leisure travel would fizzle. The global supply chain would seize up. The only consolation is that the recession would likely be followed by a vigorous 'V-shaped' recovery," Berezin wrote.
China, where the coronavirus originated, is suffering the most. The overwhelming majority of cases and deaths are in mainland China. Many of its citizens are quarantined in their homes, though the coronavirus has now spread globally.
Faced with their own snowballing outbreaks, South Korea, Italy, and Iran are introducing emergency measures and imposing restrictions on citizens to prevent the further spread of the virus. These latest developments are spooking investors and recession talk is growing as the World Health Organization monitors closely for signs that the situation has become a pandemic.
Last week, the consultancy Oxford Economics said the coronavirus could wipe $1.1 trillion in value off the global economy if it became a pandemic that spread beyond Asia, The Guardian reported.
"The risk that coronavirus could trigger a global recession cannot be written off," Cailin Birch global economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), told Newsweek. "However, we estimate that containment efforts would have to drag into the second half of 2020 in order to generate the disruption to global trade demand and consumer spending that would be necessary to create such an outcome."
Birch said the EIU "expects the virus to be contained within China by-end March, based on scientific research on this novel coronavirus and the speed of the authorities' response. This would entail a major hit to the Chinese GDP in the first quarter, but allow for a rebound in the second half of the year."
As a consequence, the EIU revised down its global growth forecast to 2.2 percent for 2020, a 0.1 percent reduction on its previous estimate because of China's coronavirus-related slowdown and the ripple effect elsewhere.
"If the timeline for the containment of the virus slips, however, we will probably revise down our global GDP growth forecast further in 2020," Birch said. "This risk has increased significantly in recent weeks as the virus has spread to several other countries, including Iran, Italy, South Korea, and Japan."
Paul Donovan, chief economist of UBS Global Wealth Management, said in a briefing note on Tuesday morning that financial markets were reacting to "fear of fear of the virus."
"The economic damage of the virus is mainly through fear of the virus. Italy's quarantine measures led investors to fear that fear would spread to European consumers," Donovan said.
Donovan told Newsweek that fear has the biggest economic impact because it changes the behavior of people and policymakers. He said the risk of recession is present "but at this stage still relatively low" and the general consensus is the virus will be a relatively short-lived issue.
"The moderation of global growth in the recent past has mainly been brought about by a slowdown in investment," Donovan said, blaming the "uncertainties" caused by President Trump's policies on trade and taxes.
"There was a reluctance to invest in global supply chains when you did not know what tomorrow's tweets might say. The reluctance to invest in global supply chains will be reinforced by the virus, but not made worse."
Donovan warned that because economic growth is supported mainly by consumer spending "this is where fear from the virus could do the most damage."
"If consumers become afraid (whether rationally or not) then weakening consumer spending could do damage to the economy," Donovan told Newsweek.
"If the fear is geographically confined, and the virus effect is short-lived (for example, if this is mainly an Asian problem and mainly in the first quarter) then the risk of a recession is low.
"I would argue that, by and large, that is the situation at the moment. If something happens to spread fear in the U.S. or Europe–more than is the case at the moment–then the risk of consumer weakness and a recession will increase."
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is still predicting 3.3 percent global economic growth for the year. But Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the IMF, warned that the recent recovery in economic growth is now threatened because of the coronavirus.
"Since that projection was made, the COVID-19 virus—a global health emergency—has disrupted economic activity in China and could put the recovery at risk," she said in a statement after meeting with G20 finance ministers in Saudi Arabia over the weekend.
"Above all, this is a human tragedy, but it also has a negative economic impact. I reported to the G20 that even in the case of rapid containment of the virus, growth in China and the rest of the world would be impacted.
"Of course, we all hope for a V-shaped, rapid recovery—but given the uncertainty, it would be prudent to prepare for more adverse scenarios."
Donovan cautioned that aggregate global GDP—the world's economies combined—is not a useful indicator because China's giant economy distorts the figure. The direct effect of a Chinese slowdown on the U.S. or Europe is "limited," he said.
He also explained that the virus has changed both supply and demand, but not all of this is in a negative way, and activity can shift too, such as people working from home where possible, which offsets some of the damage.
Less production in China is bad because it impacts supply chains. But while fear has reduced demand for some services, such as travel and certain leisure activities, housebound people have turned to internet shopping instead and are spending more online.
"This is one of the key differences compared to SARS or MERS [previous viral outbreaks]—the rise of online shopping in recent years will moderate the impact on demand. The impact is still negative overall, but it is less negative that would be the case in the absence of Amazon, or Netflix, or online games," Donovan told Newsweek.
Looking to the U.S. economy, the EIU's Birch told Newsweek it is less reliant on trade than many other countries, which will shield it from the worst effects of the coronavirus impacts.
"However, businesses in the U.S. that rely on the Chinese consumer market, including the tech sector, will be impacted by the sharp downturn in near-term Chinese demand," Birch said.
"Business investment has already slowed noticeably over the last year, owing in part to weaker external demand, including from China," she continued, adding that the EIU expects a contraction in investment this year.
"Transport and import costs could also rise, particularly if the virus is not contained by end-March; this could entail some supply disruption from China, pushing U.S. consumers to consider more expensive alternative goods."
UBS's Donovan said that even when the situation returns to normal in China and beyond, it may be a "new normal" because the virus could trigger lasting changes. "The long term implications of the virus are not necessarily clear," Donovan told Newsweek.
"For example, I believe that technology is gradually moving us towards localization of production (supply chains become shorter and less complicated, with more production taking place close to the final consumer).
"This would happen organically as a result of gradual change in the normal course of events. However, the coronavirus may accelerate some of the investment decisions that are required to change production patterns."
Donovan cited the 2012 Olympic Games in London as "an external event that can change working practices" because the subsequent rise in flexible working, including working from home, among the city's workers seems to be rooted in the event.
"The same thing may happen with home working arising from the coronavirus," he said.
"That has long term implications for infrastructure, office density rates, and the like. Online retail tends to trend upwards as a share of overall retail, but again there are 'step increases' when something happens to push more people online–and once online people rarely come offline.
"So the way we return to economic activity after the virus is likely to be different."
Traders work through the closing minutes of trading Tuesday on the New York Stock Exchange floor on February 25, 2020 in New York City. Fueled by deepening concerns of the Coronavirus becoming a global pandemic, the stock market plunged Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing almost 900 points.
