当面临关于他的当选能力的问题时，目前在2020年民主党竞选中处于领先地位的参议员伯尼·桑德斯可以举出最近的许多民调，在这些民调中，他领先于唐纳德·特朗普总统，而且往往比他的竞争对手更轻松，差距更大。

然而，桑德斯也有不祥的迹象，一个来自佛蒙特州的独立人士和一个民主社会主义者摇摆州的民意调查将决定谁将在2021年就职日入主白宫。而且，离选举如此遥远，无论哪种方式的投票都不可靠。

英国肯特大学美国政治高级讲师安德鲁·沃罗博士告诉记者:“这一轮的对决尤其没有帮助，因为实际上双方势均力敌。”新闻周刊。

“在这些假设的竞争中，没有一位民主党候选人比特朗普领先得特别多。只有愚蠢的赌徒才会重视他们。没有被提名者，开始做预测是困难和不明智的。

“尽管下周的超级星期二可能有助于澄清这一情况，但距离初选结束还有几个月的时间，甚至可能会一直持续到7月中旬在威斯康星州举行的民主党大会。”

桑德斯承诺，如果他当选白宫，美国政治和社会将发生根本性转变，包括对富人增税和巨额公共投资计划。特朗普竞选团队希望将选举变成资本主义与社会主义的公民投票。

温和派认为桑德斯太过左翼，无法赢得击败特朗普所需的独立派和保守派的支持，他的社会主义运动会让太多选民——包括一些民主党人——无法在选举中获胜。

这位参议员的支持者说，他的政纲是为了实现许多美国人渴望的真正变革，并吸引不同年龄、收入和种族群体的选民。桑德斯认为，他可以激励那个联盟站出来，夺回白宫。

“人们普遍认为，在大选中提名一名更为中间派的候选人是一个更安全的举措，”伦敦大学学院(UCL)政治学助理教授托马斯·吉夫博士告诉记者新闻周刊。

“然而，桑德斯的竞选团队确实提出了一个合理的理由，即选择中间派有可能降低自由派的兴奋程度。”

民主党竞选的全国平均投票率为538，表明桑德斯在一定程度上领先，已经取代了前副总统乔·拜登，后者在竞选的早期阶段占据了巨大的领先地位。

桑德斯的支持率为28.9%。第二是拜登，16.7%，第三是亿万富翁迈克·布隆伯格，15.4%，两人都是温和派。

第四位是马萨诸塞州参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦，进步派，占12.7%，第五位是印第安纳州前南本德，另一位温和派市长皮特·巴蒂吉格，占10.9%，第六位是明尼苏达州参议员艾米·克洛布查尔，也是温和派，占5%。

在全国范围内与总统针锋相对的民意调查中，桑德斯强烈宣称自己是最有可能超过特朗普的候选人。

福克斯新闻最近的一项民意调查显示桑德斯占49%，特朗普占42%在一场势均力敌的选举中。

尽管桑德斯领先于特朗普，但拜登(49%对41%)和布隆伯格(48%对40%)比现任总统略微领先。

沃伦(46%对43%)和巴蒂吉(45%对42%)仅领先特朗普三个百分点。

该调查是在2月23日至26日期间通过座机或手机联系到的1000名注册选民进行的，抽样误差幅度为3个百分点。

然而，哥伦比亚广播公司新闻频道的YouGov民意调查显示，桑德斯和特朗普的支持率分别为47%和44%，这是在2月20日至22日对1万名注册选民进行的调查中提到的所有候选人的最大差距。抽样误差幅度为1.2%。

民调显示，拜登仅以47%对45%领先特朗普。沃伦以46%对45%领先特朗普，而巴蒂吉与总统的支持率为44%。

特朗普超过了彭博(45%对42%)和克洛布查尔(45%对44%)。

一美国广播公司新闻/华盛顿邮报民调显示，桑德斯以51%对45%领先特朗普，仅次于拜登对总统的优势(52%对45%)。

在投票中，所有候选人都领先于特朗普，包括彭博(50%对45%)、巴特吉格(49%对46%)、克洛布加勒斯特(46%对48%)和沃伦(48%对47%)。

兰格研究协会在2月14日至17日对1066名成年人进行了固定电话和手机调查，抽样误差为3.5个百分点。

艾默生学院民调的正面结果显示，桑德斯是2020年唯一在全国范围内击败特朗普的民主党候选人。在艾默生的最新民调中，桑德斯以51%对49%领先特朗普，而所有其他人都落后共和党总统至少两个百分点。

艾默生对1250名注册选民的调查在2月16日至18日进行，误差幅度为2.7个百分点。

全国广播公司新闻/华尔街日报的一项民意调查显示，桑德斯以50%比46%领先于特朗普，尽管在同样的结果中，他的优势比拜登和布隆伯格都要小。

拜登以52%对44%领先特朗普，布隆伯格以50%对43%领先总统。但是吉吉格(48%对44%)和克罗布查(48%对45%)也比特朗普有优势。

哈特研究协会/公众意见策略在2月14日至17日对900名注册选民进行了调查，误差幅度为3.27%。

然而，尽管全国民调显示桑德斯相对于特朗普获得了一致的支持，但他们并没有明确回答候选人的问题，尤其是因为距离11月还有一段时间。

“国家民意调查可能会误导谁将最终赢得总统大选，”UCL的礼物告诉新闻周刊。

“尽管它们可以提供候选人受欢迎程度的大致概况，但总统竞选最终还是由选举团决定的。

“这意味着数量有限的摇摆州——如宾夕法尼亚州、俄亥俄州、密歇根州等——最终关系最大。”

特朗普在2016年失去了大约300万张普选选票，但由于选举团制度，他仍然赢得了选举。实际上，选举将在民主党和共和党之间摇摆的关键战场州获胜或失败。

昆尼皮亚克大学最近在民主党候选人和特朗普之间的三场面对面的民意调查中铁锈地带摇摆状态四年前投票给特朗普的是:威斯康星州、宾夕法尼亚州和密歇根州。对桑德斯来说，这是一幅喜忧参半的画面。

民调发现，在威斯康星州，特朗普击败了所有民主党候选人。特朗普以50%比43%击败桑德斯。

他还以49%对42%击败了拜登，以49%对41%击败了布隆伯格，以49%对41%击败了托蒂吉格，以51%对41%击败了沃伦，以50%对39%击败了克洛布查尔。

然而，在宾夕法尼亚州，特朗普输给了所有2020年的候选人。桑德斯以48%对44%击败了特朗普，但这比布隆伯格(48%对42%)、克洛布查尔(49%对42%)和拜登(50%对42%)的胜率要小。)

在密歇根州，所有民主党候选人再次领先特朗普，但这一次桑德斯以48%对43%位居榜首，其次是彭博(47%对42%)和拜登(47%对43%)。

昆尼皮亚克大学民意调查分析师玛丽·斯诺当时说，是经济给了特朗普“强劲的顺风”，因为这是三个州选民最关心的问题。

“这些威斯康星的数字是对民主党的一个红色警告信号，表明在2020年重建‘蓝墙’可能并不容易。但是离11月还有很长的路要走，”斯诺说。

昆尼皮亚克的调查于2月12日至18日进行，每个州有823至849名登记选民。它的误差幅度为3.4个百分点。

告诉我新闻周刊“传统智慧”是桑德斯必须夺回在上次选举中输给特朗普的锈带州。但是在铁锈地带获胜的策略可能会在其他州付出代价。

“如果威斯康辛州、密歇根州和宾夕法尼亚州只有4万人投票给希拉里·克林顿而不是唐纳德·特朗普，那么我们今天讨论的将是共和党对克林顿总统的挑战，这是事实，”弗洛说。

“但认为桑德斯的任务就像从总统手中夺走4万名白人工人阶级选民一样简单是错误的。这样做的话，他可能会让其他地方的选票大出血，尤其是那些慢慢加入民主党阵营的受过教育的郊区女性。

“选举是一场复杂的多维博弈。显而易见，任何挑战者都必须赢得关键的摇摆州。实际上赢得他们是另一回事。”

特朗普在2016年赢得的佛罗里达州是另一个至关重要的摇摆州，因为它带有一个大量的选票。今年29岁，与纽约并列第三，仅次于拥有38张选票的德克萨斯州和拥有55张选票的加州。

A联合国基金会/佛罗里达第一海岸新闻全州投票在该州的选民中，布隆伯格和拜登对特朗普的支持率比桑德斯高，后者持平。调查发现，在佛罗里达州，布隆伯格以50%对44%击败特朗普。拜登以49%对48%领先特朗普。

但桑德斯和特朗普在2月10日至17日通过手机和座机对725名佛罗里达注册选民进行的民意调查中各占48%。它的抽样误差幅度为3.6个百分点。沃伦和特朗普在佛罗里达州的支持率也是47%。

然而，在离11月大选还有几个月的时候，距离民主党大会正式提名其对手特朗普还有一段路要走，对于桑德斯在两次竞选中的机会，“除了猜测之外，别无选择”，弗洛说。

“特朗普本人显然喜欢与桑德斯对峙，桑德斯代表了总统对激进的社会主义民主党的所有言论，”弗洛告诉记者新闻周刊。

“毫无疑问，桑德斯受到他的狂热追随者的喜爱，甚至崇拜，但要成为总统，他需要确保普通的、更加中间派的民主党支持者会支持他，而不是呆在家里。

“除此之外，他还需要赢得不结盟温和派和独立派的选票。桑德斯要重新定位自己以迎合美国政治的中心，还有很长的路要走。”

沃罗还提到了特朗普的“结构性优势”，包括强劲的经济——低通胀和低失业率，以及强劲的国内生产总值(GDP)增长——以及共和党“为即将到来的竞选筹集了惊人的资金”

“2016年，希拉里和民主党的支出大大超过了特朗普，而且输了。现在，这是特朗普在金钱赌注上的优势，”弗洛告诉记者新闻周刊。

“对民主党人来说，一个好处是特朗普的个人声望低于经济基本面应该达到的水平，主要是因为他是特朗普。

“特朗普入主白宫的事实应该给民主党带来希望。自焚对他来说很自然。”

UCL的礼物告诉我们新闻周刊桑德斯在假设的与特朗普正面交锋中的民意调查很好，但现在还为时过早，“总统还没有进入全面竞选模式。”

吉夫说，桑德斯面临的一个挑战是在一个增长、稳定、低失业率的经济中推销民主社会主义，这被认为是强大的。

“尽管特朗普经济的好处显然没有得到公平分配，桑德斯也明显利用了人们对不平等的担忧，但只要美国经济继续运行，他对特朗普的指控就会变得更加困难，”吉夫告诉记者新闻周刊。

“一旦共和党着眼于挑战民主党提名人是谁，从现在到选举期间会有很多变化。潜在的不可预见的事件——包括经济波动——也会影响比赛的动态。”

民主党总统候选人伯尼·桑德斯参议员。)2020年2月27日，在南卡罗来纳州的斯巴达堡，向支持者发表演讲。自称民主社会主义者的桑德斯因其自由主义立场和对社会主义的观点而受到主流民主党的批评，他们认为这将使他在大选中易受美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的攻击。

 

WHO BERNIE SANDERS VS. DONALD TRUMP POLLS ARE SAYING WOULD WIN THE POTENTIAL 2020 MATCH-UP

When faced with questions about his electability, Sen. Bernie Sanders, the current frontrunner in the 2020 Democratic race, can point to a lot of recent polling in which he is leading President Donald Trump, often comfortably and by a wider margin than his rivals.

However, there are ominous signs for Sanders, an independent from Vermont and a democratic socialist, in polls from swing states that will decide who enters the White House on inauguration day 2021. And, so far out from the election, the polling either way is not reliable.

"They are especially unhelpful this round because the head-to-head match-ups are actually pretty close," Dr. Andrew Wroe, senior lecturer in American politics at the U.K.'s University of Kent, told Newsweek.

"None of the Democratic candidates has a particularly healthy lead over Trump in these hypothetical contests. Only a foolish gambler would set great store by them. Without a nominee, it's difficult and unwise to start making projections.

"And while Super Tuesday next week might help clarify the situation, it could still be months before the primary contest is sewn up, perhaps even going all the way to the Democratic convention in Wisconsin in mid-July."

Sanders promises a radical transformation of American politics and society if he is elected to the White House, including tax hikes on the wealthiest and a program of huge public investment. The Trump campaign wants to turn the election into a referendum on capitalism vs. socialism.

Moderates argue Sanders is too left-wing to win over the independents and conservatives needed to defeat Trump and his socialistic campaign will turn off too many voters—including some Democrats—to be successful at the election.

Supporters of the senator say his platform is for the kind of genuine change many Americans desire and appeals to voters across the different age, income, and racial groups. Sanders believes he can inspire that coalition to turn out and regain the White House.

"It's widely believed that nominating a more centrist candidate in the general election is a safer move," Dr. Thomas Gift, assistant professor in political science at University College London (UCL), told Newsweek.

"However, the Sanders campaign does make a reasonable case that choosing a centrist risks diminishing excitement among the liberal base."

FiveThirtyEight's average of national polling in the Democratic race shows Sanders is, by some distance, the frontrunner, having supplanted former Vice President Joe Biden, who in the early stages of the contest held a vast lead.

Sanders is polling at 28.9 percent. Second is Biden at 16.7 percent and third is billionaire Mike Bloomberg at 15.4 percent, both of whom are moderates.

Fourth is Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a progressive, at 12.7 percent, fifth is former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, another moderate, at 10.9 percent, and sixth is Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar, also a moderate, at five percent.

In national head-to-head polling against the president, Sanders has a strong claim to be the candidate who most consistently comes up on top over Trump.

A recent Fox News poll had Sanders at 49 percent and Trump at 42 percent in an election head-to-head.

But while Sanders had a decent lead over Trump, it was Biden (49 percent to 41 percent) and Bloomberg (48 percent to 40 percent) who held slightly larger margins over the incumbent president.

Warren (46 percent to 43 percent) and Buttigieg (45 percent to 42 percent) held only three-point advantages over Trump.

The poll was of 1,000 registered voters reached by landline or cell phone between February 23 to 26 and had a margin of sampling error of 3 percentage points.

A YouGov poll for CBS News, however, put Sanders at 47 percent and Trump at 44 percent, the widest margin of all candidates mentioned in the survey of 10,000 registered voters, which took place between February 20 to 22. The margin of sampling error was 1.2 percent.

The poll had Biden leading Trump by just 47 percent to 45 percent. Warren led Trump by 46 percent to 45 percent and Buttigieg was tied with the president at 44 percent.

Trump had the upper hand over Bloomberg (45 percent to 42 percent) and Klobuchar (45 percent to 44 percent).

An ABC News/Washington Post poll had Sanders leading Trump by 51 percent to 45 percent, second only to Biden's advantage over the president (52 percent to 45 percent).

All candidates held a lead over Trump in the poll, including Bloomberg (50 percent to 45 percent), Buttigieg (49 percent to 46 percent), Klobuchar (46 percent to 48 percent), and Warren (48 percent to 47 percent).

The survey of 1,066 adults by landline and cell phone, which was conducted by Langer Research Associates, took place between February 14 to 17, and had a margin of sampling error of 3.5 percentage points.

Emerson College Polling's head-to-head results have put Sanders as the only 2020 Democratic candidate that is beating Trump nationally. In Emerson's latest poll, Sanders leads Trump by 51 percent to 49 percent while all others trail the Republican president by at least two percentage points.

The Emerson poll of 1,250 registered voters took place between February 16 to 18 and had a margin of error of 2.7 percentage points.

And an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll put Sanders in front of Trump by 50 percent to 46 percent, though his margin was slimmer than Biden's and Bloomberg's in the same results.

Biden led Trump by 52 percent to 44 percent and Bloomberg led the president by 50 percent to 43 percent. Buttigieg (48 percent to 44 percent) and Klobuchar (48 percent to 45 percent) also had the advantage on Trump.

The poll of 900 registered voters was conducted by Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies between February 14 to 17 and has a margin of error of 3.27 percent.

Yet, while the national polls do show consistent support for Sanders over Trump, they do not definitively answer the electability question not least because of the distance to November.

"The national polls can be misleading indicators of who will ultimately win the presidency," UCL's Gift told Newsweek.

"Although they can provide a broad overview of the favorability of candidates, presidential races are ultimately determined by the Electoral College.

"That means a limited number of swing states—like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, etc—end up mattering the most."

Trump lost the popular vote by around three million in 2016 but still won the election because of the Electoral College system. In practice, the election will be won or lost in key battleground states that swing between Democrat and Republican.

Quinnipiac University recently polled on head-to-heads between Democratic candidates and Trump in three of the Rust Belt swing states that voted Trump four years ago: Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. It presents a mixed picture for Sanders.

In Wisconsin, Trump defeats all of the Democratic candidates, the poll found. Trump beats Sanders by 50 percent to 43 percent.

He also beats Biden by 49 percent to 42 percent, Bloomberg by 49 percent to 41 percent, Buttigieg by 49 percent to 41 percent, Warren by 51 percent to 41 percent, and Klobuchar by 50 percent to 39 percent.

In Pennsylvania, however, Trump loses to all the 2020 candidates. Sanders defeats Trump by 48 percent to 44 percent, but this is a narrower margin of victory than Bloomberg (48 percent to 42 percent), Klobuchar (49 percent to 42 percent), and Biden (50 percent to 42 percent.)

Over in Michigan, again all Democratic candidates lead Trump, but this time Sanders is on top at 48 percent to 43 percent, followed by Bloomberg (47 percent to 42 percent) and Biden (47 percent to 43 percent).

Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Mary Snow said at the time that it was the economy giving Trump "a strong tailwind" because it is a top issue among voters in all three states.

"These Wisconsin numbers are a red warning sign for Democrats that rebuilding the 'blue wall' in 2020 may not be so easy. But it's a long way to November," Snow said.

The Quinnipiac survey of between 823 and 849 registered voters in each state took place from February 12 to 18. It had a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.

Wroe told Newsweek that the "conventional wisdom" is Sanders must retake the Rust Belt states lost to Trump at the last election. But a winning strategy in the Rust Belt may come at a cost in other states.

"It's true that if just 40,000 people in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania had voted for Hillary Clinton rather than Donald Trump, we would today be talking about the Republican challengers to President Clinton," Wroe said.

"But it is wrong to think that Sanders' task is as easy as peeling off 40,000 white working-class voters from the president. In doing that, he could hemorrhage votes elsewhere, particularly among educated suburban women who have been slowly moving into the Democratic camp.

"Elections are a complex game of multidimensional chess. It's axiomatic and obvious to say that any challenger must win the key swing states; actually winning them is a different matter."

Florida, which Trump also won in 2016, is another vital swing state because it carries with it a large number of electoral votes. At 29, it is joint third highest with New York, behind Texas, which has 38 electoral votes, and California, which has 55.

A UNF/First Coast News Florida Statewide Poll of voters in the state found that Bloomberg and Biden fared better against Trump than Sanders, who tied. The poll found that, in Florida, Bloomberg beat Trump 50 percent to 44 percent. Biden led Trump 49 percent to 48 percent.

But Sanders and Trump were 48 percent apiece in the poll of 725 registered Florida voters conducted by cell phone and landline between February 10 to 17. It had a margin of sampling error of 3.6 percentage points. Warren and Trump were also tied in Florida at 47 percent.

Still, with months until November's election, and a way to go before the Democratic convention formally nominates its rival to Trump, it is "too far out to offer anything other than a guestimate" about Sanders' chances in either contest, Wroe said.

"Trump himself would clearly love a face-off against Sanders, who personifies everything the president has been saying about the radical, socialist Democratic party," Wroe told Newsweek.

"There's no question that Sanders is loved, even worshiped, by his ardent followers, but to become president he needs ensure that ordinary, more centrist Democratic supporters will turn out for him rather than stay home.

"And beyond that, he also needs to win the votes of non-aligned moderates and independents. Sanders has a very long road to travel to reposition himself to appeal to the center-ground in American politics."

Wroe also noted Trump's "structural advantages," including the strong economy—with low inflation and unemployment, and robust GDP growth—and that the Republican party has "raised a staggering amount of money to fight the upcoming campaign."

"Hillary and the Democratic party outspent Trump hugely in 2016 and lost. Now, it's advantage Trump in the money stakes," Wroe told Newsweek.

"One upside for the Democrats is that Trump's personal popularity is below where it should be given the economic fundamentals, largely because he is, well, Trump.

"The fact that it's Trump in the White House should give the Democrats hope. Self-immolation comes naturally to him."

UCL's Gift told Newsweek that Sanders polls well in hypothetical head-to-heads against Trump but it is still early and "the president isn't in full-campaign mode yet."

Gift said a challenge for Sanders is selling democratic socialism in a growing, stable economy with low unemployment and that is perceived as strong.

"Although it's clear that not all the benefits of the Trump economy are being equitably distributed, and Sanders clearly taps into concerns about inequality, his case against Trump will be made that much harder as long as the U.S. economy stays afloat," Gift told Newsweek.

"A lot can change between now and the election once the Republican Party sets its sights on challenging whoever the Democratic nominee is. The potential for unforeseen events—including fluctuations in the economy—can also affect the dynamics of the race."

Democratic presidential frontrunner Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) speaks to supporters on February 27, 2020 in Spartanburg, South Carolina. Sanders, a self described democratic-socialist, is under criticism from mainstream Democrats for his liberal positions and views on socialism, which they feel will make him vulnerable to U.S. President Donald Trump in the general election.