约翰·霍普金斯大学（Johns Hopkins University ）的研究人员于2019年发布了全球健康安全（GHS）指数，该研究调查了全球195个国家对冠状病毒等大流行病的准备情况。该指数虽然无意用作预测工具，但其目的是在全球范围内查明各国卫生系统的优缺点。
各国在预防和发现传染病的能力，快速反应的潜力以及危险环境等方面的得分都很高。在满分100分中，研究评估的所有国家/地区的总体平均得分为40.2。
唐纳德·特朗普总统在2月的新闻发布会上提到了GHS指数，向记者展示了300多页。
“我猜约翰霍普金斯大学是一个备受推崇的好地方，他们进行了一项全面的研究：'为流行病做好准备的最坏的国家。' 而且美国现在-我们被评为第一名。”特朗普说。“我们被列为准备工作的第一名。”
简报发布后的大约一个月，美国以冠状病毒确诊率最高的案例位居世界第三，有超过55,000人被确诊被该病毒感染。
尽管美国在GHS指数上排名第一，总得分为83.5，但研究发现，在全球范围内，准备工作可能会得到改善。
约翰霍普金斯大学健康安全中心资深学者，GHS指数制定共同负责人詹妮弗·纳佐（Jennifer Nuzzo）博士在周三接受《新闻周刊》采访时说：“该指数的首要发现是没有一个国家有充分的准备。”
“当我们发表文章时就提出了理由，是的，美国和得分最高的所有其他国家不应该坐下来放松一下，因为首先，他们没有他们需要的一切，并且缺乏任何一个区域都可能破坏响应，” Nuzzo继续说道。“我认为我们现在看到了一些。”
Nuzzo补充说：“很难说这个国家没有'X'，因此他们有这么多的案件，而这个国家也没有'Y'，然后他们就有了。” “因此，您不能真正地直接推断。这可能是一个镜头，当您看到案件编号时，您可以尝试根据他们的能力和我们认为的事情来解释它的去向。这并不完美。 ，但您可能会在他们的回应中发现弱点。”
根据GHS指数，中国在195个国家中排名第31，得分为48.2。中国最大的优势之一是对流行病的威胁做出了快速反应，包括其限制贸易和旅行的能力。然而，中国已成为新型冠状病毒的全球震中，已确认该国超过81,000例病例。
Nuzzo解释说：“在12月和1月，当我们开始听到有关中国的病例时，世界其他地方正试图解释这些病例的数量。” “在某种程度上，要对这些病例数进行解释，需要了解他们在测试中的能力。我们认为它们可以收集样本并运输它们吗？我们对他们的流行病学能力有何认识，以便能够采访病例并确定可能被感染的联系人？”
“在全球形势下，我们都相互依赖，我们都依赖于了解彼此的长处和短处，以便我们可以更好地解释这些数据，也可以更好地了解我们各自国家所面临的风险以及我们如何根据我们在其他国家/地区看到的情况做出回应。” Nuzzo补充说。
在GHS指数中排名第31位的是意大利，该国在检测和报告传染病方面得分很高。意大利目前是世界上冠状病毒病例第二高的国家，报告的确诊病例超过69,000，Nuzzo说，事实可能与该国人口老龄化有关。
努佐说：“从年龄上讲，年龄结构较年轻的国家可能没有像意大利那样遭受重创的国家。意大利是一个相当古老的国家。”
在该指数中排名靠前的大约是97个中东国家/地区，伊朗，目前已确认病例超过27,000个。伊朗拒绝了外部援助以应对这一大流行病。周二，该国撤销了先前对人道主义组织“无国界医生”的批准，以协助其治疗冠状病毒。
伊朗卫生部长阿里雷扎·瓦哈布扎德（Alireza Vahabzadeh）周一说：“由于正在进行全国性的对抗日冕的动员活动，而且伊朗武装部队的医疗能力已完全发挥作用，因此伊朗不需要外国人建立的医院，这种存在无关紧要。”
Nuzzo说，创建该指数时还考虑了社会和政治因素，包括政府的效力。
Nuzzo说：“我们不仅关注健康状况，还关注国家的总体风险环境。这包括各国政府的实力，腐败或其他情况。” “我认为，如果我们看一下美国，也许下次我们做指数时，美国将会失去一些领域，但是我认为，我们面临的许多挑战可能是由于其中一些治理问题-第一次测量时可能并不明显，但重新测量后可能会变得明显。”
在全球统一制度指数中排名较差的一些国家，例如毛里塔尼亚（排名第157位），冠状病毒的发生率较低。目前，该国仅报告了两个COVID-19病例。
努佐说：“就流行病学而言，我希望所有国家都受到重创。某些国家可能会做得更好，那些能够真正迅速做出反应的国家。”
努佐说，她希望未来全球各国政府将对加强其卫生系统给予更多关注。
Nuzzo说：“我们建立该指数的原因之一是与各国领导人进行交流，加强对话，与各国领导人进行对话，并说'准备有所作为'。” “您可能有许多相互竞争的优先事项，但对备灾的投资是有回报的。您似乎不愿意为此付出代价，但是当情况发生并且相信我们时，情况将会发生，您将如果您提前完成工作，那就更好了。”
最近的数据表明，全世界有440,359例确诊的冠状病毒病例。虽然有19,753人死于该病毒，但其中112,032人被列为完全康复。Statista提供的下图显示了截至3月25日凌晨6点，全球COVID-19病例的分布情况
2019 STUDY TOUTED BY TRUMP SHOWED GLOBAL LACK OF PANDEMIC READINESS
Researchers at Johns Hopkins University released the Global Health Security (GHS) Index in 2019, a study that looked at the projected readiness of 195 countries in the world for a pandemic like coronavirus. While not meant to be used as a predictive tool, the index was designed to pinpoint strengths and weaknesses in the health systems of countries on a global level.
Scores were given to countries in categories such as the ability to prevent and detect infectious diseases, the potential for rapid response, and the environment for risk. Out of a possible score of 100, the overall average score of all countries assessed in the study was 40.2.
President Donald Trump referred to the GHS Index during a February news briefing, showing its 300-plus pages to reporters.
"The Johns Hopkins, I guess—is a highly respected, great place—they did a study, comprehensive: 'The Countries Best and Worst Prepared for an Epidemic.' And the United States is now—we're rated No. 1," Trump said. "We're rated number one for being prepared."
Roughly a month after that briefing, the U.S. was ranked No. 3 in the world for having the most confirmed cases of coronavirus with over 55,000 individuals confirmed to be infected by the virus.
While the U.S. was ranked No. 1 on the GHS Index with a total score of 83.5, the study found that preparation could be improved on a global level.
"The overarching finding of the index is that no country is fully prepared," said senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and co-leader of the development of the GHS Index Dr. Jennifer Nuzzo in a Wednesday interview with Newsweek.
"We made the case when we published it that yes, the U.S. and all the rest of the countries that score at the top should not sit back and just relax because first of all, they didn't have everything that they needed and deficiencies in any one area can potentially break the response," Nuzzo continued. "I think we're seeing some of that now."
"It's hard to say this country lacked 'X,' and therefore they had this number of cases, and this country lacked 'Y,' and then they had this," Nuzzo added. "So you can't really directly extrapolate. It's potentially a lens with which when you see case numbers, you could try to interpret where it could go based on what they're able to do and what we think they have. It's not perfect, but where you might see weakness in their response."
According to the GHS Index, China ranked 31 out of 195 countries with a 48.2 index score. Among China's greatest strengths was rapid response to the threat of an epidemic, including its ability to restrict trade and travel. Yet China became the global epicenter of the novel coronavirus, with over 81,000 cases confirmed in the country.
"In December and January when we started hearing about cases in China, the rest of the world was trying to interpret those case numbers," Nuzzo explained. "In part, an interpretation of those case numbers requires an understanding of how capable are they at testing. Do we think they can collect specimens and transport them? Do we have a sense of what their epidemiological capacity is to be able to interview cases and identify contacts that may be infected?"
"In a global situation, we're all dependent on each other and we're all dependent on knowing what each other's strengths and weaknesses are, so that we can better interpret those data and we can better understand what our individual countries' risks are and how we should respond based on what we're seeing happening in other countries," Nuzzo added.
Coming in 31st on the GHS Index was Italy which received high scores for detection and reporting infectious diseases. Italy currently has the second-highest number of coronavirus cases in the world with over 69,000 confirmed cases reported, a fact Nuzzo said may have to do with the older-skewing demographic in the country.
"Countries that have younger age structures might not be as hard hit as, say, Italy which is a fairly old country, demographically speaking," Nuzzo said.
Roughly in the middle of the index with a ranking of 97 was the Middle Eastern country of Iran, which currently has over 27,000 confirmed cases. Iran has rejected outside aid in dealing with the pandemic. Tuesday, the country revoked its previous approval for the humanitarian organization Doctors Without Borders to assist with coronavirus treatment.
"Since the national mobilization for confronting corona is ongoing, and the medical capabilities of Iranian Armed Forces are entirely at its service, Iran does not need hospitals established by foreigners and such presence is irrelevant," said Iranian Health Minister Alireza Vahabzadeh on Monday.
Nuzzo said that social and political factors, including the efficacy of governments, were also taken into account when creating the index.
"We didn't just look at the health capacities but also just the general risk environment in countries. That includes just how strong their governments are, whether there's corruption or other things," Nuzzo said. "I think if we look at the U.S., maybe there will be areas that the U.S. will lose points in the next time we do the index, but I think a lot of the challenges that we are having are probably due to some of these governance issues—which maybe weren't apparent the first time we measured, but which may become apparent upon remeasure."
Some countries that ranked poorly on the GHS index, such as Mauritania which came in on the list at No. 157, have a low occurrence of coronavirus. Currently, the country only has two reported cases of COVID-19.
"Just epidemiologically speaking," Nuzzo said, "I would expect all countries to be hit hard. Some countries may do better, the ones that are able to respond really quickly."
Nuzzo said she hopes global governments will give more attention to strengthening their health systems in the future.
"One of the reasons we started the index was to bring to national leaders, elevate this conversation, pitch it at national leaders and say, 'Preparedness pays,'" Nuzzo said. "You may have lots of competing priorities but investments in preparedness pay off. It may seem like a cost that you're not willing to incur but when a situation happens and, trust us, a situation will happen, you're going to be much better off if you have put in the work in advance."
Recent data indicates 440,359 confirmed cases of coronavirus worldwide. While 19,753 individuals have died as a result of the virus, 112,032 people are listed as fully recovered. The graphic below, provided by Statista, illustrates the distribution of COVID-19 cases around the world as of March 25 at 6 a.m.
