美国和伊朗似乎已经为他们共同的伊拉克战场的升级做好了准备，尽管这三个国家都在抗击一场流行病，专家称这场流行病可能只会加剧紧张局势。
美国总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)周三警告称，伊朗正计划“对美国驻伊拉克部队和(或)资产进行偷袭”，并随后引用了未具体说明的情报，他表示，这些情报显示，当地与德黑兰结盟的部队可能有阴谋。
“不要这样做，”总统在当晚的新闻发布会上警告说，他威胁说，这次他的“反应会更大”，因为上个月美国空袭了伊朗支持的卡塔卜真主党阵地，但据报道也打死了伊拉克军队、警察和一名平民。
周四，伊朗军事参谋长少将·穆罕默德·侯赛因·巴盖里表示，他的部队正在“密切监视美国人的活动和行动”，谁将面临“恐怖袭击”最激烈的反应“如果他们罢工。他否认伊朗对最近一连串针对美国及其盟国军队军事阵地的火箭袭击负责，而是称这些袭击是伊拉克人民对一个越来越单方面行动的外国势力的“自然反应”。
越来越多有影响力的准军事分子异口同声地表达了类似的观点，他们试图驱逐原本负责击败伊斯兰国激进组织(ISIS)的美国军队。尽管美国领导的联军和这些伊朗支持的民兵组织都在与圣战组织作战，但他们现在却在一轮又一轮的致命暴力中相互攻击，这场暴力已经震撼了饱受冲突蹂躏的伊拉克。
现在，一个新的共同敌人出现了，这种新的冠状病毒已经席卷了整个中东，几乎席卷了世界的每一个角落。美国天主教大学的军事伙伴吉尔·巴恩多勒称这种疾病“是一个额外的因素，可能会导致事态升级和误判”，而不是这种相互威胁将对手聚集在一起
“就伊朗政权和伊拉克民兵的决策而言，他们在很大程度上对此负责，你更有可能在他们的计算中加入另一个因素，从而看到一个升级的循环，”巴恩多勒说，他也是华盛顿国防优先智囊团的高级研究员新闻周刊周四的新闻发布会上。他认为，伊朗“面对冠状病毒导致的美国的升级和挑衅，不太容易退缩”
当美国试图以潜在的进一步军事行动来对抗其对手时，巴恩多勒警告说:“你直接看我们正在做的事情，这会对我们的利益产生反作用。”
3月29日，在美国计划撤军之前，伊拉克士兵和一名美国陆军士兵在伊拉克北部基尔库克西北的K1空军基地附近散步，这是联合特遣部队固有决心行动的一部分。固有决心行动是美国领导的打击伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国的联盟。美国已经从伊拉克全境的一些军事阵地撤出，列举了对伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国的胜利和对COVID-19冠状病毒的担忧，但华盛顿警告说，支持伊朗的民兵可能会升级。
美国中央司令部司令肯尼斯·麦肯齐(Kenneth McKenzie)上个月在参议院军事委员会作证时也表示，COVID-19危机可能会让伊朗“在决策方面更危险，而不是更不危险。”自特朗普2018年退出多边核协议以来，伊朗一直受到美国的严格贸易限制，伊朗官员也是如此呼吁解除制裁当它对抗疾病的时候。
今年早些时候，伊朗是中国以外首个受到COVID-19严重打击的国家之一，迄今已记录了约5万例病例，其中近3200例死亡，逾16700例康复。然而，美国目前是世界上冠状病毒感染人数最多的国家，约有216，700人检测呈阳性，其中超过5，100人死亡，约8，700人康复。
至于伊拉克，截至周四，该国仅报告了约728例新冠状病毒病，包括52例死亡和182例痊愈。然而，真实的数字恐怕要高得多，因为检测率低和卫生保健系统不发达，巴恩多勒警告说，尽管伊拉克采取了抗流行病措施，但这可能导致COVID-19病例激增。
他说:“我预计冠状病毒病例可能会激增，可能比其他一些地方出现的时间更晚。”。
随着巴格达努力保持低发病率，这种疾病已经被证明是对华盛顿和德黑兰的一个重大考验。这两个长期的敌人已经把责任转移到了国外，因为他们正在努力控制国内日益恶化的疫情，指责对方传播错误信息。
总部位于布鲁塞尔的国际危机组织的非国家武装组织高级分析师萨姆·海勒告诉记者新闻周刊“COVID-19可能会加速一些已经启动的进程，或者作为其他决策的政治掩护。”他认为，虽然“在面对国内公共卫生危机的情况下，这场大流行将如何更普遍地影响各国向海外部署军队的意愿，这是一个未决的问题”，但美国和伊拉克民兵组织都有兴趣保持压力，即使在大流行期间也是如此。
海勒强调说:“通过继续袭击美国驻伊拉克部队，与伊朗有关联的准军事组织可以确保外国军队在伊拉克的地位以及美国‘占领’的结束保持在巴格达政治议程的首位。”。
“此外，当美国单方面回应这些挑衅时，它会进一步损害美国与其伊拉克官方伙伴的关系，并使更多的伊拉克政治派别反对美国的继续存在，”他补充道随着时间的推移，看起来可能的结果是美国被驱逐出伊拉克，将在该国的实质性影响力让给伊朗及其伊拉克盟友。"
这是阿萨布·阿勒·哈克(Asaib Ahl al-Haq)等组织的最终目标，他的卡尔巴拉省主任将抗击流行病的努力与打击美国和伊斯兰国联系在一起。萨迪周四在伊拉克电视节目中说:“就像我们打败了伊斯兰国和美国的占领一样，我们将打败病毒，伊拉克人民将生活在繁荣之中。”你的声音被听到了。
自今年1月在巴格达国际机场杀害伊朗革命卫队圣城军指挥官卡西姆·索莱尼和伊拉克人民动员部队副领导人阿布·马赫迪·穆汉迪以来，美国一直留在伊拉克，无视伊拉克为外国军队撤离提供便利的不具约束力的投票。然而，五角大楼以伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国的胜利和对COVID-19的担忧为由，从基地、基地机场和K1空军基地撤出了部队。
然而，海勒认为，这一运动“看起来像是在更少、防御更好的地方巩固这些部队的一个步骤，在那里他们可以受益于导弹防御系统之类的东西。”
3月17日公布的一段视频显示，一名代表名为“革命联盟”的伊拉克新民兵组织的男子威胁说，如果美国及其盟友继续留在伊拉克，他们将受到进一步的攻击。
不仅仅是强硬派民兵这表达了沮丧美国在伊拉克的做法。该国领导人和几乎所有主要政治人物上个月都公开反对上月的空袭，以及特朗普威胁称，如果巴格达试图将美国军队赶出该国，就有可能对其进行惩罚。
“我认为美国和伊拉克的关系正处于最低点。巴格达巴彦中心的研究负责人阿里·阿尔·马瓦拉维告诉记者新闻周刊。“美国显然是在用更多的大棒而不是胡萝卜来鼓励伊拉克与自己的利益保持一致——对伊拉克境内的目标实施单方面军事打击，并威胁要制裁伊拉克政府。”
在街上，伊拉克抗议者无视隔离措施，继续起来反抗政府，他们指责政府未能修复该国四面楚歌的经济、基础设施和公民社会，同时他们代表的是外国利益，而不是自己的利益。他们已经面临着安全部队的镇压，现在却面临着不断升级的地缘政治紧张局势和致命的爆发。
多伦多约克大学奥斯古德·霍尔法学院的学术研究员鲁巴·阿里·哈萨尼告诉记者新闻周刊“美国和伊拉克真主党之间的针锋相对的攻击显示了对伊拉克主权和伊拉克人民的完全漠视，伊拉克人民最近一直认为自己是伊拉克主权的核心。”
“抗议者已经明确表示，他们不承认政府的合法性，这也意味着他们也不承认承认政府合法性的盟友。这包括伊朗和美国。“这很复杂，因为伊拉克人确实认识到，伊朗和美国都曾在对伊拉克的伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国(is is)的战争中援助过伊拉克，并意识到任何国家盟友都应该在这种时候提供援助。”
哈桑尼说，美国、伊朗和伊拉克“应该把注意力完全放在越来越多的COVID-19病例上”，而不是继续沿着他们的战争道路前进，进一步将平民置于危险之中
Statista提供的图表显示了21世纪初新冠状病毒的全球传播。近100万人受灾，其中20多万人已经康复，5万多人死亡。
上述图形由提供Statista。
U.S. AND IRAN PREPARE FOR ESCALATION IN IRAQ, WHERE CORONAVIRUS MAY MAKE CONFLICT WORSE
The United States and Iran appear prepared for an escalation in their common battlefield of Iraq, even as all three nations battle a pandemic that experts say may serve to only inflame tensions.
President Donald Trump warned Wednesday that Iran was planning a "sneak attack on U.S. troops and/or assets in Iraq" and later cited unspecified intelligence he said indicated potential plots by local Tehran-aligned forces there.
"Don't do it," the president warned at a press briefing that evening, threatening that his "response will be bigger" this time after U.S. airstrikes last month targeted Iran-backed Kataib Hezbollah positions but also reportedly killed Iraqi troops, police officers and a civilian.
On Thursday, Iranian military chief of staff Major General Mohammad Hossein Bagheri stated his forces were "closely monitoring the activities and moves of Americans," who would face the "fiercest reactions" should they strike. He denied Iran's responsibility for the recent spate of rocket attacks targeting military positions hosting U.S. and allied troops, instead calling them a "natural reaction by the Iraqi people" toward a foreign power who has increasingly acted unilaterally.
Similar sentiments were expressed by an increasingly vocal chorus of influential paramilitary elements seeking to expel a U.S. presence originally tasked with defeating the Islamic State militant group (ISIS). Though the U.S.-led coalition and these Iran-supported militias both battled the jihadi organization they now targeted one another in rounds of deadly violence that has rocked the already conflict-ravaged nation of Iraq.
Now, a new common foe emerged, the novel coronavirus that has swept throughout the Middle East as with nearly every other corner of the world. Instead of this mutual threat bringing adversaries together, Catholic University of America military fellow-in-residence Gil Barndollar called the disease "an extra factor that probably lends itself to escalation and miscalculations."
"In terms of the decisionmaking of the Iranian regime and the Iraqi militias that largely answer to it, you're more likely to see an escalatory cycle by adding another factor to their calculations," Barndollar, who also serves as a senior fellow at the Defense Priorities think tank in Washington, told Newsweek on a press call Thursday. He argued Iran was "less apt to back down in face of escalations and provocations by the U.S. as a result of coronavirus."
As the U.S. attempts to antagonize its adversaries with potential further military action, Barndollar warned: "You look at what we're doing directly and it's counterproductive to our interests."
Iraqi soldiers and a U.S. Army soldier, part of the Combined Joint Task Force Operation Inherent Resolve, the US-led coalition against ISIS, walk around at the K1 Air Base northwest of Kirkuk in northern Iraq before a planned U.S. pullout on March 29. The U.S. has withdrawn from some military positions throughout Iraq, citing victories over ISIS and concerns over the COVID-19 coronavirus but Washington warned of a potential escalation against militias supportive of Iran.
In his testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee last month, U.S. Central Command chief General Kenneth McKenzie also argued that the COVID-19 crisis likely makes Iran "more dangerous in terms of decision-making more dangerous rather than less dangerous." The Islamic Republic has been subject to strict U.S. trade restrictions since Trump's 2018 exit from a multilateral nuclear deal, and Iranian officials have called for sanctions relief as it battles the disease.
Iran was among the first nations outside of China to be severely hit by COVID-19 earlier this year and has since recorded about 50,000 cases, of which nearly 3,200 died and over 16,700 recovered. The U.S., however, now stands with what is by far the world's largest coronavirus disease count with some 216,700 testing positive, of whom over 5,100 died and around 8,700 recovered.
As for Iraq, the country has reported only about 728 instances of the new coronavirus disease as of Thursday, including 52 deaths and 182 recoveries. The true number is feared much higher, however, due to low testing rates and an underdeveloped health care system that Barndollar warned could lead to a surge in COVID-19 cases in spite of Iraq's anti-epidemic measures.
"I expect there may be an explosion of coronavirus cases, maybe on a more delayed timeline than some other places," he said.
As Baghdad strives to keep its number down, the disease has proven a major test for both Washington and Tehran. The two longtime foes have shifted the blame abroad as they struggle to contain worsening outbreaks at home, accusing one another of spreading misinformation.
Sam Heller, the senior analyst on non-state armed groups at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group, told Newsweekthat "COVID-19 may accelerate some processes that were already in motion, or serve as political cover for other decisions." While "it's an open question how the pandemic will, more generally, affect countries' willingness to deploy troops abroad as they face this public health crisis at home," he argued, both the U.S. and Iraqi militias had an interest in keeping up pressure, even amid the pandemic.
"By keeping up attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq, Iran-linked paramilitaries can ensure that the status of foreign forces in the country and the end of the U.S. 'occupation' stay near the top of the political agenda in Baghdad," Heller highlighted.
"Moreover, when the U.S. responds to those provocations unilaterally, it further damages the United States' relationship with its official Iraqi partners and turns more of the Iraqi political spectrum against a continued U.S. presence," he added. "What seems like the likely result, over time, is the expulsion of the U.S. from Iraq, ceding substantial influence in the country to Iran and its Iraqi allies."
This is the ultimate goal of groups like Asaib Ahl al-Haq, whose Karbala province director linked anti-epidemic efforts to battle against the U.S. and ISIS. "Just as we have defeated ISIS and the American occupation, we will defeat the virus and the Iraqi people will live in prosperity," Saadi said Thursday on the Iraqi television program Your Voice is Heard.
Defying a non-binding Iraqi vote to facilitate the withdrawal of foreign forces, the U.S. has remained in the country since killing Iranian Revolutionary Guard Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani and Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces deputy leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis at Baghdad International Airport in January. The Pentagon has, however, pulled troops from positions such as Al-Qaim Base, Al-Qayyarah Airfield and K1 Airbase, citing both ISIS victories and concerns over COVID-19.
Heller argued, however, this movement "looks like a step to consolidate those forces in fewer, better-defended locations, where they can benefit from things like missile defense systems."
A man representing a new Iraqi militia called Usbat al-Thayireen, or League of Revolutionaries, threaten further attacks on U.S. and its allies should they remain in Iraq a still from a video published March 17.
It was not just hardline militias that expressed frustration at the U.S. approach in Iraq. The country's leaders and nearly every major political actor spoke out last month against last month's airstrikes as well as Trump's threats to potentially punish Baghdad if it moved forward with attempts to push U.S. troops out of the country.
"I think the U.S.-Iraq relationship is at its lowest point. There's a lot of distrust on both sides," Ali al-Mawlawi, head of research at the Al-Bayan Center in Baghdad told Newsweek. "The United States is clearly using more sticks than carrots to encourage Iraq to align with its interests—carrying out unilateral military strikes on targets within Iraq's territory and subtle threats to sanction the Iraqi government."
On the street, Iraqi protesters have defied quarantine measures to continue rising up against a government they accused of failing to fix the country's embattled economy, infrastructure and civil society, all while representing foreign interests instead of their own. Already facing a crackdown by security forces, they now contended with spiraling geopolitical tensions and a deadly outbreak.
Ruba Ali Al-Hassani, an academic researcher at York University's Osgoode Hall Law School in Toronto, told Newsweek that "tit-for-tat attacks between the U.S. and Kata'ib Hizbullah in Iraq show complete disregard for Iraq's sovereignty and the Iraqi people, who have lately been identifying themselves as central to Iraq's sovereignty."
"Protestors have been making it clear that they do not recognize the government as legitimate, which thus also means they also do not recognize its allies that do recognize it as such. This includes both Iran and the U.S.," Hassani explained. "This is complex as Iraqis do recognize that both Iran and the U.S. assisted Iraq in the war on Daesh (ISIS), and appreciate that any state allies should assist at such times."
Rather than continue down their warpath and further putting civilians at risk, Hassani said the U.S., Iran and Iraq "should be focusing entirely on the growing number of COVID-19 cases."
A graphic provided by Statista shows the global spread of the new coronavirus as of early 21. Nearly one million people have been afflicted, over 200,000 of whom have recovered and over 50,000 of whom have died.
The above graphics were provided by Statista.
