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美联储主席:冠状病毒大流行需要“18个月战略”

2020-04-13 10:29   美国新闻网   - 

明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)行长尼尔·卡什卡里(Neel Kashkari)表示,政府应该有一个“18个月战略”,以应对冠状病毒大流行期间医疗保健部门和经济的需求,他表示,在发现有效的疫苗或疗法之前,他不指望生活会完全恢复正常。

卡什卡里是在周日采访《哥伦比亚广播公司新闻》面向全国。他还预测说,从大流行中恢复的经济不会很快,同时还说,新的失业申请何时会达到稳定还不清楚。

“在我们真正得到治疗或疫苗之前,我们可能会有这些突发事件、控制、突发事件和控制,”这位银行家说。“我认为,我们都应该把重点放在医疗体系和经济的18个月战略上。

“如果最后比那还短,”卡什卡里继续说道,“那很好,[,但是]我们应该为最坏的情况做好准备。”

科学家说,一种有效的疫苗需要12到18个月才能生产出来。

这位美联储官员对美国经济能否在不久的将来迅速而轻松地启动表示怀疑。他表示,未来几个月,经济可能会“重新启动,或许会重新关闭”。

卡什卡里说:“在找到有效的治疗方法或疫苗之前,这可能是一条漫长而艰难的道路。“在这种情况下,我很难看到V型复苏。”

对于不断增长的失业申请,卡什卡里断言“这都是由病毒驱动的。”他说“我们只是不知道”有多少人会不可避免地失去工作,并指出有各种各样的估计。

一些保守派专家和共和党议员一直在质疑当前政府严格的社会距离策略。他们认为经济损失可能大于冠状病毒的风险。然而,健康专家和医生指出,社会隔离措施和关闭大部分经济部门是拯救成千上万人,甚至可能是数百万人生命的唯一途径。

“我们应该停止将健康和经济对策分开考虑。民主党总统候选人、前副总统乔·拜登在一份声明中写道纽约时报观点文章周日出版。

但是严格的社会隔离措施已经关闭了全国各地的餐馆、健身房、酒吧、商店、学校和活动,导致了严重的经济后果。仅在三周内,美国经济就出现了破纪录的失业申请,近1700万美国人已经申请了失业保险。

圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长詹姆斯·布拉德在3月下旬告诉彭博新闻社,他预计失业率可能达到30%,而国内生产总值可能下降50%。财政部长史蒂文·姆努钦此前曾警告共和党人,失业率可能会高达20%。

10月11日,明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长尼尔·卡什卡里在纽约市福克斯商业网络工作室参观玛利亚·巴蒂罗姆华尔街

当政府官员讨论如何以及何时开始重新开放经济时,卫生专家警告说,必须采取缓解措施来防止进一步的疾病爆发。安东尼·福西博士是白宫冠状病毒特别工作组的重要成员,也是国家过敏和传染病研究所的主任,周日说他希望美国人能够安全地去投票站在11月的大选中投票。但他警告说,很难预测病毒是否会“反弹”。

根据约翰·霍普金斯大学更新的追踪报告,截至周日下午早些时候,美国已有超过542,000人被证实患有冠状病毒。其中,超过2万人死亡,超过3.2万人已经康复。

在全球范围内,超过180万人受到感染,超过113 000人死亡,超过377 000人康复。

FEDERAL RESERVE PRESIDENT SAYS CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC NEEDS AN '18-MONTH STRATEGY' FOR HEALTHCARE AND ECONOMY

Neel Kashkari, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said that the government should have an "18-month strategy" to respond to the needs of the healthcare sector and the economy amid the coronavirus pandemic, saying he doesn't expect life to return fully to normal until an effective vaccine or therapy is discovered.

Kashkari made the remark during a Sunday interview with CBS News' Face the Nation. He also predicted that the economic recovery from the pandemic would not be swift, while also saying that it's unclear when new unemployment claims will reach a plateau.

"We could have these waves of flare ups, controls, flare ups and controls until we actually get a therapy or a vaccine," the banker said. "I think we should all be focusing on an 18-month strategy for our healthcare system and our economy.

"If it ends up being shorter than that," Kashkari continued, "that's great, [but] we should prepare for the worst-case scenario."

Scientists have said that an effective vaccine would take between 12 and 18 months to produce.

The Federal Reserve official expressed skepticism that the economy would be able to start up quickly and easily at any time in the near future. He said that there would likely be "turning back on, maybe turning back off" of the economy in the coming months.

"This could be a long hard road that we have ahead of us until we get to either an effective therapy or vaccine," Kashkari said. "It's hard for me to see a V-shaped recovery under that scenario."

In regards to the growing number of unemployment claims, Kashkari asserted "it's all driven by the virus." He said "we just don't know" how many people will inevitably lose their jobs, pointing out that there are a wide range of estimates.

Some conservative pundits and Republican lawmakers have been questioning the current government strategy of stringent social distancing. They have argued that the economic damage could be greater than the risks of coronavirus. However, health experts and doctors have noted that social distancing measures and shutting down large sectors of the economy are the only way to save hundreds of thousands, and potentially millions, of lives.

"We should stop thinking of the health and economic responses as separate. They are not," former Vice President Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, wrote in a New York Timesopinion article published on Sunday.

But the stringent social distancing measures, which have shut down restaurants, gyms, bars, stores, schools and events across the country, have led to significant economic fallout. Just in three weeks, the economy has seen record breaking jobless claims, with nearly 17 million Americans having already filed for unemployment insurance.

James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, told Bloomberg News in late March that he projected unemployment could reach 30 percent, while GDP could drop by 50 percent. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin had previously warned Republicans that it could rise as high as 20 percent.

Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari visits Maria Bartiromo's Wall Street at Fox Business Network Studios on October 11 in New York City

As government officials discuss how and when to start reopening the economy, health experts have warned that mitigation steps must be in place to prevent further outbreaks moving forward. Dr. Anthony Fauci, a key member of the White House Coronavirus Task Force and the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said on Sunday that he hoped Americans would be able to safely go to the polls to vote in the November general election. But he cautioned that it's difficult to predict whether a "rebound" of the virus could occur.

As of early Sunday afternoon, over 542,000 people were confirmed to have the coronavirus within the U.S., according to a tracker updated by Johns Hopkins University. Of those, more than 20,000 have died while over 32,000 have already recovered.

Globally, more than 1.8 million people have been infected while over 113,000 have died and over 377,000 have recovered.

 

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