根据约翰·霍普金斯大学的最新数据，截至上周五，瑞典的新型冠状病毒已蔓延至17，500多人，造成2，100多人死亡。尽管病例持续增长，但该国采取了出人意料的方式，没有实施全国范围的封锁。

尽管国际社会对这一决定嗤之以鼻，但支持瑞典冠状病毒策略的科学家称，这一有争议的举措是有效的，因为越来越多的人接触到这种病毒，有望帮助预防第二波感染。

瑞典公共健康机构的首席国家流行病学家安德斯·特内尔告诉英国广播公司第四广播电台说，不实施封锁的决定“在某些方面起了作用，因为我们的卫生系统已经能够应对。”今天程序。

该国的死亡人数在斯堪的纳维亚国家中遥遥领先——是丹麦的两倍多，是芬兰的四倍多。

但是特内尔认为:“我们死亡人数的至少50%是在养老院内，我们很难理解封锁将如何阻止疾病的传播。

“我们已经有了一项法律，规定游客进入养老院是非法的。他们需要持续的照顾，他们需要很多人来来往往照顾他们。

“因此，我们有点不清楚一次封锁是否真的能阻止这一切的发生。”

本周早些时候，特内尔告诉CNBC，该机构“仍然非常关心老年人”。我们说我们需要保护的是这个群体，”他说，并指出，该机构正在与不同的家庭合作，看看如何降低风险因素。

特内尔还声称，在瑞典首都斯德哥尔摩，多达20%的居民已经感染了这种病毒，他指出，“如果我没记错的话，我们认为我们有一个免疫水平，在斯德哥尔摩人口的15%到20%之间。

“这不是完全的群体免疫，但它肯定会影响繁殖率，减缓(第二波)传播，”他补充道。

该机构称，斯德哥尔摩已报告近15，300例COVID-19确诊病例，其中至少有1，765人死亡，包括养老院的高龄居民。

周二，瑞典公共卫生机构的一项研究预测，到5月初，斯德哥尔摩将有近三分之一的人感染了该病毒，称首都可能已经度过了疫情的高峰期。

根据这项基于随机检测数据和医院报告病例的研究，到5月1日，斯德哥尔摩近100万人口中约有三分之一将被感染。

该机构的研究表明，斯德哥尔摩的新感染率在4月15日达到峰值，但数据还没有显示出下降趋势。该研究还估计，对于每一个确诊病例，大约有999个较轻的病例没有记录，因为人们没有寻求医疗帮助。

该机构的副州流行病学家安德斯·沃伦斯坦(Anders Wallensten)在周二的新闻发布会上告诉记者:“一个多星期前，已经达到了峰值，至少根据这一模型，我们可以预计每天的病例会减少。”

“但是你也得记住...三分之二的人没有被感染，并且仍然会感染，”瓦伦斯滕补充说，他指出现在说斯托克霍姆的死亡人数何时会开始下降还为时过早。

“新病例数量的曲线也没有开始下降，所以我们还没有达到那个水平，”他说。

尽管特内尔声称他对当前的作战策略“相当有信心”，但与其他国家相比，该国的一些健康专家对这种宽松的方法表示担忧，包括瑞典卡罗林斯卡学院微生物发病学教授塞西莉亚·索德伯格-瑙克勒。

本月早些时候，近2300名学者签署了一封致政府的公开信，敦促政府在病例持续增长的情况下，采取更强有力的措施来保护国家的医疗保健系统，索德伯格-瑙克勒就是其中之一。

“我们必须控制局势，我们不能陷入完全混乱的局面。没有人尝试过这条路线，[没有实施封锁]，那么为什么我们要在没有知情同意的情况下，首先在瑞典进行测试呢？”她本月早些时候告诉路透社。

“我担心的是，[疫情爆发的速度太快了，”索德伯格-瑙克勒对瑞典广播电台表示。他指出，当病毒首次由前往高风险地区的居民带入瑞典时，该国反应太慢，包括前往意大利阿尔卑斯山和伊朗。

索德伯格-瑙克勒补充说，她希望看到实施更严格的措施来帮助减缓病毒在瑞典的传播。

瑞典隆德大学两位流行病学教授于3月27日共同撰写的一篇文章解释道:“像许多其他国家一样，COVID-19在瑞典的传播相当不均衡。大多数病例是在大斯德哥尔摩地区诊断和治疗的，最近还在北部的杰姆特兰县——滑雪者的热门目的地。另一方面，其他一些地理区域相对幸免，至少目前如此。在瑞典第三大城市马尔默，在撰写本报告时仍只有少数病例住院。

“毫无疑问，这种流行病将会蔓延，但其速度是有争议的。

“最终，鉴于目前病毒在瑞典的传播不均衡且相对温和，其最初的策略可能不会被证明是鲁莽的。作者保罗·弗兰克斯(隆德大学的遗传流行病学教授)和彼得·尼尔森(隆德大学的内科-流行病学教授)说:“但展望未来，瑞典可能不得不根据病毒的传播方式实施更严格的限制，尤其是在大城市地区或当医疗系统处于严重紧张状态时。”。

他们补充道:“瑞典当局认为，有许多感染者没有症状，而在接受临床治疗的人中，只有五分之一需要住院治疗。在这一点上，很难知道有多少人是无症状的，因为在瑞典没有结构化筛查，也没有抗体检测来检查谁实际上患有COVID-19并从中恢复。但大幅低估医院激增的需求仍将是毁灭性的。”

2020年4月22日，人们在斯德哥尔摩的一家餐馆吃午餐。

上个月，斯特凡·汉森(另一位瑞典学者)和克劳迪娅·汉森(一位瑞典流行病学家)在瑞典的Dagens Nyheter报纸指出:“我们看到了意大利的情况...我们只落后几周...我们不能投降！与瑞典采取同样策略的英国，现在已经完全改变了。在瑞典做同样的事情是斯特凡·勒文的[瑞典首相的职责。”

当...的时候新闻周刊瑞典卫生和社会事务部的一名发言人告诉记者，他们联系了瑞典卫生和社会事务部，就瑞典疫情的最新情况和上述几名学者联名写的信寻求进一步的评论新闻周刊:“不幸的是，政府将无法满足你的要求。”

新闻周刊已联系瑞典首相办公室、瑞典欧盟事务大臣和瑞典医学协会征求意见。

瑞典目前的限制包括禁止50人以上的集会，同时高中和大学关闭，他们的课程在网上教授。居民被告知要避免不必要的旅行，政府提倡尽可能在家工作，避免与老人接触。

但是为16岁以下儿童开设的学校仍然开放，同时居民可以正常参观商店，孩子们可以在外面玩耍。据报道，餐馆、酒吧、咖啡馆和夜总会被告知只提供坐席服务。

首次在中国武汉发现的这种新型冠状病毒已经感染了全球270多万人。根据约翰·霍普金斯大学的最新数据，截至周五，已有超过192，000人死亡，超过751，500人康复。

下图由提供Statista，显示了COVID-19确诊病例最多的国家。

该图表由Statista绘制，显示了COVID-19确诊病例最多的国家。

疾病控制和预防中心关于使用面部覆盖物减缓COVID-19传播的建议

• 疾病预防控制中心建议在难以保持社交距离的公共场合佩戴布质面罩。

• 一个简单的布质面部覆盖物可以帮助那些被感染者和没有表现出症状的人减缓病毒的传播。

• 布面可以由家用物品制成。指南由疾病预防控制中心提供。（http://www . CDC . gov/corona virus/2019-ncov/prevent-get-disk/DIY-cloth-face-covers . html)

• 应该定期清洗布面。洗衣机就够了。

• 通过不接触眼睛、鼻子和嘴来练习安全地去除面部覆盖物，并在去除覆盖物后立即洗手。

世界卫生组织关于避免冠状病毒疾病传播的建议(COVID-19)

卫生建议

• 经常用肥皂和水洗手，或者用酒精洗手。

• 咳嗽或打喷嚏后洗手；照顾病人时；食物准备之前、期间和之后；吃饭前；使用厕所后；当手明显变脏时；处理动物或废物后。

• 与任何咳嗽或打喷嚏的人保持至少1米(3英尺)的距离。

• 避免触摸你的手、鼻子和嘴。不要在公共场合吐痰。

• 咳嗽或打喷嚏时，用纸巾或弯肘捂住口鼻。立即丢弃纸巾并清洁双手。

医疗建议

• 如果你有任何症状，避免与其他人密切接触。

• 如果你感觉不舒服，即使有轻微的症状，如头痛和流鼻涕，也要呆在家里，以避免疾病扩散到医疗机构和其他人。

• 如果您出现严重症状(发烧、咳嗽、呼吸困难)，请尽早就医，并提前联系当地卫生部门。

• 记录最近与他人的任何联系和旅行细节，以提供给能够追踪和预防疾病传播的当局。

• 了解卫生当局发布的COVID-19最新进展，并遵循他们的指导。

面具和手套的使用

• 如果照顾病人，健康的人只需要戴口罩。

• 如果你咳嗽或打喷嚏，请戴上口罩。

• 当与频繁的手部清洁结合使用时，口罩是有效的。

• 戴口罩时不要触摸。如果你触摸面具，请洗手。

• 学习如何正确戴上、取下和处理口罩。扔掉口罩后，请洗手。

• 不要重复使用一次性口罩。

• 经常洗手比戴橡胶手套更能有效防止感染COVID-19。

• COVID-19病毒仍然可以在橡胶手套上被发现，并通过触摸你的脸传播

SCIENTIST BEHIND SWEDEN'S CORONAVIRUS STRATEGY SAYS COUNTRY BETTER PREPARED FOR SECOND WAVE DUE TO NOT HAVING LOCKDOWN

The novel coronavirus in Sweden has spread to over 17,500 people and killed more than 2,100, as of Friday, according to the latest figures from Johns Hopkins University. While cases continue to grow, the country has taken the surprising route of not imposing a nationwide lockdown.

Despite international derision over the decision, the scientist behind Sweden's coronavirus strategy claims the controversial move has been effective as the increased number of people exposed to the virus will hopefully help prevent a second wave of infections.

The decision to not issue a lockdown "worked in some aspects because our health system has been able to cope," Anders Tegnell, the chief state epidemiologist at Sweden's public health agency, told the BBC's Radio Four's Today program.

The country has by far and away the highest death toll among Scandinavian countries—more than double the number of cases in Denmark and nearly four times as much as in Finland.

But Tegnell argues: "At least 50 percent of our death toll is within elderly homes and we have a hard time understanding how a lockdown would stop the introduction of disease.

"We already had a law making it illegal for visitors to come to elderly homes. They need constant care, they need a lot of people coming and going to take care of them.

"So it's a bit unclear to us if a lockdown really would have stopped this from happening or not."

Earlier this week, Tegnell told CNBC that the agency is "still very concerned about the elderly. It's the group we said we needed to protect," he said, noting that the agency was working with different homes to see how the risk factor could be lowered.

Tegnell also claimed up to 20 percent of residents in Stockholm, the capital of Sweden, have been infected with the virus, noting "We believe that we have an immunity level, if I remember rightly, somewhere between 15-20 percent of the population in Stockholm.

"This is not complete herd immunity but it will definitely affect the reproduction rate and slow down the spread (of a second wave)," he added.

Stockholm has reported nearly 15,300 confirmed cases of COVID-19, with at least 1,765 deaths, including among very elderly residents of nursing homes, according to the agency.

On Tuesday, a study by Sweden's public health agency projected nearly a third of Stockholm will have contracted the virus by early May, claiming the capital may have passed the peak of the outbreak.

According to the study based on data from random testing and cases reported to hospitals, around one third of Stockholm's population of nearly a million will be infected by May 1.

The agency's study suggested the rate of new infections in Stockholm peaked on April 15, while a decline was not yet evident from the data. The study also estimated that for each confirmed case, there were around 999 milder cases not recorded because people did not seek medical help.

Anders Wallensten, the deputy state epidemiologist at the agency, told reporters at a press briefing on Tuesday: "Already a bit more than a week ago, the peak was reached, at least according to this model, and we can expect fewer cases each day."

"But you also have to remember...that two-thirds have not been infected and can still get it," Wallensten added, noting it was too early to say when Stockhom's death toll would start to fall.

"The curve for the number of new cases hasn't started to decline yet, either, so we are not there yet," he said.

While Tegnell claims he is "fairly confident" in the current combat strategy, several health experts in the country have raised concerns over the relaxed approach, compared with other nations, including Cecilia Soderberg-Naucler, a professor of microbial pathogenesis at the Karolinska Institute in Sweden.

Soderberg-Naucler is among the nearly 2,300 academics who earlier this month signed an open letter to the government urging it to introduce stronger measures to protect the country's health care system as cases continue to grow.

"We must establish control over the situation, we cannot head into a situation where we get complete chaos. No one has tried this route [of not imposing a lockdown], so why should we test it first in Sweden, without informed consent?" she told Reuters earlier this month.

"My concern is things [the outbreak] are going too fast," Soderberg-Naucler said to Radio Sweden, noting that the country was too slow to react when the virus was first brought to the country by residents who traveled to higher risk areas, including to the Italian Alps and Iran.

Soderberg-Naucler added she would like to see stricter measures be implemented to help slow the spread of the virus in Sweden.

An article published on March 27 and co-written by two epidemiology professors at Sweden's Lund University, explains: "Like in many other countries, the spread of COVID-19 is quite uneven in Sweden. Most cases have been diagnosed and treated in the greater Stockholm area, and lately also in the northern county of Jämtland—a popular destination for skiers. On the other hand, some other geographical areas are relatively spared, at least for the moment. In the third largest Swedish city, Malmö, still only a few cases have been hospitalised at the time of writing.

"There is no doubt that the epidemic will spread, but the speed of this is disputed.

"Ultimately, given the uneven and relatively modest spread of the virus in Sweden at the moment, its initial strategy may not turn out to be reckless. But going forward, Sweden is likely to have to impose stricter restrictions depending on how the virus spreads, especially in metropolitan areas or when the healthcare system is under severe strain," said the authors, Paul Franks (a professor of genetic epidemiology at Lund University) and Peter Nilsson (a professor of internal medicine-epidemiology at Lund University).

They added: "Swedish authorities believe there are many infected people without symptoms and that, of those who come to clinical attention, only one in five will require hospitalisation. At this point, it is hard to know how many people are asymptomatic as there is no structured screening in Sweden and no antibody test to check who has actually had COVID-19 and recovered from it. But substantially underestimating hospital surge requirements would nevertheless be devastating."

People having lunch at a restaurant in Stockholm on April 22, 2020.

Last month, Stefan Hanson (another Swedish academic) and Claudia Hanson (a Swedish epidemiologist) co-wrote an op-ed in Sweden's Dagens Nyheter newspaper, noting: "We see the situation in Italy...and we are only a few weeks behind...we can't surrender! The U.K., which had the same strategy as Sweden, has now changed completely. It is Stefan Löfven's [Swedish Prime Minister] duty to do the same in Sweden."

When Newsweek contacted Sweden's Ministry of Health and Social Affairs for further comment on the latest situation of the outbreak in Sweden and the aforementioned letter co-written by several academics, a spokesperson for the ministry told Newsweek: "Unfortunately the government will not be able to meet your request."

Newsweek has contacted the Swedish Prime Minister's Office, the Swedish Minister for European Union Affairs and the Swedish Medical Association for a comment.

Current restrictions in Sweden include a ban on gatherings of more than 50 people, while high schools and universities are closed and their courses are being taught online. Residents have been told to avoid unnecessary travel and the government advocates working from home, where possible, and avoiding contact with the elderly.

But schools for those under 16 remain open, while residents are allowed to visit shops as normal and children can play outside. Restaurants, bars, cafes and nightclubs have reportedly been told to offer seated table service only.

The novel coronavirus, which was first detected Wuhan, China, has infected over 2.7 million people across the globe. Over 192,000 have died, while more than 751,500 have recovered, as of Friday, according to the latest figures from Johns Hopkins University.

The graphic below, provided by Statista, illustrates countries with the most confirmed COVID-19 cases.

This graphic by Statista illustrates countries with the most confirmed COVID-19 cases.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Advice on Using Face Coverings to Slow Spread of COVID-19

• CDC recommends wearing a cloth face covering in public where social distancing measures are difficult to maintain.

• A simple cloth face covering can help slow the spread of the virus by those infected and by those who do not exhibit symptoms.

• Cloth face coverings can be fashioned from household items. Guides are offered by the CDC. (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/diy-cloth-face-coverings.html)

• Cloth face coverings should be washed regularly. A washing machine will suffice.

• Practice safe removal of face coverings by not touching eyes, nose, and mouth, and wash hands immediately after removing the covering.

World Health Organization advice for avoiding spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19)

Hygiene advice

• Clean hands frequently with soap and water, or alcohol-based hand rub.

• Wash hands after coughing or sneezing; when caring for the sick; before, during and after food preparation; before eating; after using the toilet; when hands are visibly dirty; and after handling animals or waste.

• Maintain at least 1 meter (3 feet) distance from anyone who is coughing or sneezing.

• Avoid touching your hands, nose and mouth. Do not spit in public.

• Cover your mouth and nose with a tissue or bent elbow when coughing or sneezing. Discard the tissue immediately and clean your hands.

Medical advice

• Avoid close contact with others if you have any symptoms.

• Stay at home if you feel unwell, even with mild symptoms such as headache and runny nose, to avoid potential spread of the disease to medical facilities and other people.

• If you develop serious symptoms (fever, cough, difficulty breathing) seek medical care early and contact local health authorities in advance.

• Note any recent contact with others and travel details to provide to authorities who can trace and prevent spread of the disease.

• Stay up to date on COVID-19 developments issued by health authorities and follow their guidance.

Mask and glove usage

• Healthy individuals only need to wear a mask if taking care of a sick person.

• Wear a mask if you are coughing or sneezing.

• Masks are effective when used in combination with frequent hand cleaning.

• Do not touch the mask while wearing it. Clean hands if you touch the mask.

• Learn how to properly put on, remove and dispose of masks. Clean hands after disposing of the mask.

• Do not reuse single-use masks.

• Regularly washing bare hands is more effective against catching COVID-19 than wearing rubber gloves.

• The COVID-19 virus can still be picked up on rubber gloves and transmitted by touching your face