对新型冠状病毒（SARS-CoV-2）的新科学分析表明，科学家不应排除该病毒源自实验室的可能性，无论这种可能性有多大
尽管美国官员和情报机构阻止了武汉病毒研究所的泄密，但中国却否认了这一想法是阴谋论。
科学界普遍同意中国的立场，即冠状病毒是自然界中跳跃的物种，可能是在武汉市一个潮湿的市场上。该观点部分基于没有对COVID-19病毒进行基因改造的证据。
根据《新闻周刊》的要求研究该研究的科学家说，该分析是非常规的，并且使用未经证实的技术。他们警告不要得出结论，除非更多的研究可以证实这一分析。
这项新研究尚未经过同行评审，已在冷泉港实验室主持的bioRxiv网站上发表，指出该新型病毒“非常适合人类”。它是由不列颠哥伦比亚大学动物与生物多样性研究中心，融合基因组学公司和麻省理工学院和哈佛大学斯坦利精神病学研究中心的科学家合着的。bioRxiv告诫其网站上发表的研究“不应被认为是结论性的，指导临床实践/健康相关行为，或在新闻媒体中作为已建立的信息进行报道”。
这张鸟瞰图显示了武汉病毒学研究所校园内的P4实验室，美国领导人从那里推测5月13日在中国中部湖北省发生了新型冠状病毒泄漏
“我们的观察结果表明，到2019年末首次检测到SARS-CoV-2时，它已经预先适应了人类传播，其程度与晚期流行SARS-CoV相似。但是，没有起源于进化的前兆或进化分支已检测到一种不太适合人类的SARS-CoV-2样病毒。”
他们警告说：“具有高度传染性的SARS-CoV-2的突然出现引起了人们的关注，这应该促使国际社会作出更大的努力，以查明来源并防止在不久的将来再次出现。”
分析解释说，仍然没有明确的证据指出该病毒的确切来源。研究人员解释说，根据病毒的遗传组成和样本，尚不清楚SARS-CoV-2是否适应于中间动物宿主内部，人体内或实验室环境。它可能在实验室中从一个物种跳到另一个物种。
这组作者写道：“即使在实验室进行研究时，也应考虑非基因工程的前体可能已经适应人类的可能性，而不论这种可能性是多么大。”
总之，研究警告说，人类爆发的各种可能性“意味着我们需要针对每种情况采取预防措施，以防止再次出现。”
加州大学戴维斯分校的教授乔纳森·艾森（Jonathan Eisen）周日在《新闻周刊》（Newsweek）发表了这个故事后，在推特上发布了有关该研究的主题。他写道：“由于许多原因，我认为该结论令人信服，其中包括：1）他们尚未展示出检测这些模式的方法。2）仅与CoV进行了比较3）对替代假设的检验不足4）没有强有力的证据证明CoV2从一开始就适应人类。”
他补充说：“我注意到-该预印本中进行了一些有趣的分析，但我真的只是不相信他们已经表明他们可以根据这些分析做出自己的推断。”
正如《新闻周刊》 4月27日报道的那样，美国国防情报局更新了对新型冠状病毒大流行起源的评估，表明它可能是从中国武汉的一个实验室意外泄漏出来的。先前的评估得出的结论是，新病毒“可能是自然发生的”。
科学家和情报界在很大程度上否认有关该病毒是基因操纵的阴谋论。许多科学家还强调，这种病毒自然产生的可能性要比从实验室泄漏出来的可能性高，尽管这两种理论尚无定论。
唐纳德·特朗普总统，国务卿迈克·庞培和一些高级共和党议员很快就跳脱了这种病毒可能是由实验室泄漏产生的理论的支持。众所周知，武汉病毒研究所正在研究类似于导致大流行的冠状病毒。但是，该设施的中国科学家和中国官员已完全拒绝了实验室泄漏可能刺激全球爆发的可能性。
庞培说，美国对武汉实验室的理论没有“确定性”，但是，“有大量证据表明，这是来自实验室的。” 同时，中国坚持认为该病毒是自然产生的，初步分析表明它来自武汉一个臭名昭著的湿市场。
但是，在bioRxiv上发表的新研究解释说，从仍然存在的潮湿市场样本中，无法确定在病毒跳入人类之前是否存在中间物种。研究人员写道：“如果中间动物宿主出现在市场上，那么可用的遗传样本中就没有证据了。” 他们得出结论，可用的市场样本最有可能来自人类，而不是动物。
特朗普因其政府对这一大流行病的反应而在美国国内面临严厉批评，他一再将新的冠状病毒爆发归咎于中国。他还建议美国将惩罚中国。
总统在周四早上告诉福克斯商业主持人玛丽亚·巴蒂罗莫说： “我们可以做很多事情。” “我们可以切断整个关系。”
5月14日创作的这些照片组合显示了中国国家主席习近平和唐纳德·特朗普的近期肖像
特朗普冠状病毒特别工作组的主要成员安东尼·福西博士（Anthony Fauci）担任国家过敏和传染病研究所所长，他对武汉实验室理论的接受度较低。
“如果您观察蝙蝠中病毒的进化以及现在的情况，[科学证据]会非常非常强烈地倾向于对此进行人工或故意操纵，即突变自然进化的方式，” Fauci在本月初接受《国家地理》采访时说。
他说：“许多非常有资格的进化生物学家说，随着时间的推移逐步进化的一切都强烈表明[该病毒]是自然进化的，然后是跳跃的物种。”
中国因处理新型冠状病毒爆发而受到国际社会的广泛批评。中国官员最初掩盖了武汉的疫情。他们似乎也正在审查对该病毒起源的研究，德国和美国的情报表明，世界卫生组织（WHO）受中国的压力要轻描淡写COVID-19构成的威胁。同时，中国政府试图改变这种说法，因为它试图通过向世界各国运送医疗用品来使自己定位为应对大流行的全球领导者。
随着对新型冠状病毒起源的研究不断，全球大流行已经感染了全球近470万人。在受感染者中，有313,000多人死亡，而已有170万人康复。
美国东部时间下午7:05更新，其中包括乔纳森·艾森（Jonathan Eisen）对该研究发表评论的推文。
SCIENTISTS SHOULDN'T RULE OUT LAB AS SOURCE OF CORONAVIRUS, NEW STUDY SAYS
A new scientific analysis of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has argued that scientists should not rule out the possibility that the virus originated in a laboratory setting, no matter how likely or unlikely that could be
While U.S. officials and intelligence agencies have held out the possibility of a leak from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, China has dismissed the idea as a conspiracy theory.
The scientific community has generally agreed with China's position that the Coronavirus jumped species in nature, probably at a wet market in the city of Wuhan. That view has been in part based on the evidence that the COVID-19 virus was not genetically manipulated.
Scientists who looked at the study at Newsweek's request said that the analysis is unconventional and uses techniques that are unproven. They cautioned against drawing conclusions until more research can corroborate the analysis.
The new study, which has not been peer-reviewed and was published on the site bioRxiv hosted by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, notes that the novel virus is "well adapted for humans." It was authored by scientists from the Department of Zoology & Biodiversity Research Center at the University of British Columbia, the Fusion Genomics Corporation and the Stanley Center for Psychiatric Research at the Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard. bioRxiv cautions that studies published on its site should not "be regarded as conclusive, guide clinical practice/health-related behavior, or be reported in news media as established information."
This aerial view shows the P4 laboratory on the campus of the Wuhan Institute of Virology, from where U.S. leaders have speculated the novel coronavirus may have leaked, in China's central Hubei province on May 13
"Our observations suggest that by the time SARS-CoV-2 was first detected in late 2019, it was already pre-adapted to human transmission to an extent similar to late epidemic SARS-CoV. However, no precursors or branches of evolution stemming from a less human-adapted SARS-CoV-2-like virus have been detected," the authors of the study explained in the abstract.
"The sudden appearance of a highly infectious SARS-CoV-2 presents a major cause for concern that should motivate stronger international efforts to identify the source and prevent near future re-emergence," they warned.
The analysis explains that there is still no clear evidence to point to a precise origin of the virus. The researchers explained, based on the genetic makeup and samples of the virus, it remains unclear whether SARS-CoV-2 adapted inside an intermediary animal host, within a human, or in a laboratory setting. It could have potentially jumped from species to species within a lab.
"Even the possibility that a non-genetically-engineered precursor could have adapted to humans while being studied in a laboratory should be considered, regardless of how likely or unlikely," the authors wrote.
In conclusion, the study cautions that various possibilities for how the outbreak began in humans "means that we need to take precautions against each scenario to prevent re-emergence."
Jonathan Eisen, a professor at the University of California, Davis, tweeted a thread Sunday about the study, after Newsweek published this story. He wrote: "I find this conclusion to be unconvincing for many reasons including: 1) They have not shown their methods work for detecting these patterns 2) Only compare to CoV 3) Not enough testing of alternative hypothesis 4) No strong evidence CoV2 well adapted to humans from start."
"I note - there are some interesting analyses in this preprint but I am really just not convinced that they have shown that they can make the inferences they are making based on these analysis," he added.
As Newsweek reported on April 27, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency updated an assessment of the origins of the novel coronavirus pandemic to suggest that it could have accidentally leaked from a laboratory in Wuhan, China. Previously the assessment had concluded that the new virus had "probably occurred naturally."
Scientists and the intelligence community have largely dismissed conspiracy theories that the virus was genetically manipulated. Many scientists have also stressed that it is more likely that the virus arose naturally than that it leaked from a lab, although there is not yet conclusive evidence for either theory.
President Donald Trump, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and some top Republican lawmakers have quickly jumped behind the theory that the virus could have emerged from a lab leak. The Wuhan Institute of Virology was known to be researching coronaviruses similar to the one that has now caused the pandemic. But Chinese scientists at the facility and Chinese officials have roundly rejected the possibility that a lab leak could have spurred the global outbreak.
Pompeo has said that the U.S. does not have "certainty" about the Wuhan lab theory, but has said that there is "significant evidence that this came from the laboratory." Meanwhile, China has maintained that the virus emerged naturally, with initial analysis suggesting it came from a now infamous wet market in Wuhan.
However, the new study published on bioRxiv explains that from the wet market samples still in existence, it's not possible to determine if there was an intermediary species before the virus jumped to humans. "If intermediate animal hosts were present at the market, no evidence remains in the genetic samples available," the researchers wrote. They conclude that the available market samples were most likely from humans, not animals.
Trump, who is facing significant criticism within the U.S. for his administration's response to the pandemic, has repeatedly blamed China for the novel coronavirus outbreak. He has also suggested that the U.S. will attempt to punish China.
"There are many things we could do," the president told Fox Business host Maria Bartiromo on Thursday morning. "We could cut off the whole relationship."
This combination of pictures created on May 14 shows recent portraits of China's President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump
Dr. Anthony Fauci, a key member of Trump's coronavirus task force who serves as the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has been less receptive to the Wuhan lab theory.
"If you look at the evolution of the virus in bats and what's out there now, [the scientific evidence] is very, very strongly leaning toward this could not have been artificially or deliberately manipulated – the way the mutations have naturally evolved," Fauci said in an interview with National Geographic earlier this month.
"A number of very qualified evolutionary biologists have said that everything about the stepwise evolution over time strongly indicates that [this virus] evolved in nature and then jumped species," he said.
China has faced significant international criticism for its handling of the novel coronavirus outbreak. Chinese officials initially covered up the outbreak in Wuhan. They have also appeared to be censoring research into the origins of the virus, and German and U.S. intelligence suggests that the World Health Organization (WHO) was pressured by China to downplay the threat posed by COVID-19. Meanwhile, the Chinese government has attempted to shift the narrative, as it tries to position itself as a global leader in dealing with the pandemic by sending medical supplies to nations around the world.
As research into the origins of the novel coronavirus continues, the global pandemic has already infected nearly 4.7 million people around the world. Of those infected, more 313,000 have died while over 1.7 million have already recovered.
Updated 7:05 PM ET, to include a tweet by Jonathan Eisen commenting on the study.
