根据最近的民意调查，民主党总统候选人乔·拜登继续在关键的摇摆州和全国范围内领导唐纳德·特朗普总统。但民意调查也显示，相当多的选民仍未决定或正在考虑支持其他候选人。
前总统巴拉克·奥巴马在2008年和2012年支持密歇根州、威斯康星州、宾夕法尼亚州和佛罗里达州，但特朗普在2016年获胜。最近在这些州进行的投票显示，拜登领先现任总统几个百分点。与此同时，传统上共和党的大本营亚利桑那州似乎正在转变为蓝色，尽管该州在过去50年里只投票给过一次民主党总统候选人。
特朗普连任竞选的副新闻秘书肯·法纳索(Ken Farnaso)在一封发给以下人士的电子邮件中驳斥了最近的投票结果新闻周刊指的是总统在2016年的胜利，尽管民调显示他会输。
3月7日，在密苏里州堪萨斯市，唐纳德·特朗普总统的支持者和民主党总统候选人乔·拜登的支持者在国家一战博物馆和纪念馆举行的拜登竞选集会前交谈
“2016年证明了投票是众所周知的错误，并且一直低估了总统和他与美国人民联系的能力。法纳索说:“特朗普总统的美国第一议程带来了经济复兴、新的国家安全、加强了我们与盟友的关系，并遏制了我们的敌人。”。
新闻周刊也向拜登竞选团队寻求评论。
在密歇根州，特朗普以0.2%的票数领先，根据真实透明政治组织最近汇总的民意调查，拜登目前平均领先5.5个百分点。保守派福克斯新闻(Fox News)在4月份进行的一项民意调查显示，特朗普落后8个百分点，拜登得到49%的受访者支持，而总统仅得到41%的密歇根选民支持。然而，该调查也显示，中西部州10%的选民仍未决定或可能投票给另一名候选人。
拜登和特朗普在威斯康星州的竞争似乎更为激烈，2016年，总统以同样微弱的优势仅获得0.3%的选票。《真正清晰的政治》显示拜登平均领先2.7个百分点。马凯特法学院5月3日至7日在该州进行的最新调查显示，拜登领先3个百分点，得票率为46%，而特朗普为43%。同样，在那次民意调查中，11%的受访者表示他们还没有决定或者会投票给其他人。
在宾夕法尼亚州东部，拜登比特朗普领先更多。总统在2016年东部州选举中也以0.7%的微弱优势获胜。目前，该州的真实清晰政治民调平均显示，拜登领先约6.5%。哈珀民意调查在4月底显示，拜登领先6个百分点，49%的选民支持他，而特朗普只有43%。但8%的受访者仍未做出决定。
特朗普10月份从纽约正式迁回佛罗里达州居住的地方，似乎也倾向于拜登。根据“真实清晰政治”的汇总数据，2016年，总统以1.2%的较大优势赢得了南部各州，而现在他以平均3.3%的优势落后于前副总统。本月早些时候佛罗里达大西洋大学进行的最新民调显示，拜登领先6个百分点，53%比特朗普的47%。
在亚利桑那州，特朗普似乎以更大的优势落后于拜登，尽管他在2016年赢得了西南州3.6%的选票。目前，《真正清晰的政治》平均显示拜登领先4个百分点。5月9日至11日，由《世界卫生组织预测透视》进行的民意调查显示，前副总统领先7个百分点，50%比特朗普的43%。但是，在那次调查中，7%的选民并不坚定地支持任何一位候选人。
5月11日，唐纳德·特朗普总统在华盛顿特区白宫玫瑰园举行的冠状病毒测试新闻发布会上发表讲话，3月9日，民主党总统候选人乔·拜登在密歇根州弗林特的贝尔斯顿菲尔德府向支持者发表讲话。
如果拜登能够赢得亚利桑那州，他将是自1996年以来第一位赢得该州支持的民主党总统候选人。1996年，美国前总统比尔·克林顿在他的连任竞选中赢得了该州的支持。一些分析家认为亚利桑那州可能在未来几年成为一个稳定的蓝色州，因为民主党已经控制了该州的一个参议院席位越来越自信他们可以在11月翻转另一个座位。
但是正如特朗普的竞选团队指出的那样新闻周刊投票中的领先不一定意味着11月份的胜利。许多全国民调显示，2016年年中，前民主党总统候选人希拉里·克林顿领先特朗普两位数。尽管克林顿在全国范围内赢得的个人选票比特朗普多近300万张，但总统还是在关键的战场州赢得了一系列险胜，如上图所示。结果，特朗普以显著优势赢得了选举团。
尽管如此，最近的全国民调继续显示拜登在选民中明显领先。福克斯新闻从5月17日至5月20日进行的民意调查显示，前副总统获得了48%的选民支持，而支持特朗普的选民比例为40%，领先8个百分点。同样，右翼民调公司拉斯穆森报告显示，拜登领先5个百分点，支持率为48%，支持总统的支持率为43%。
What the Polls Say About Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden in Key 2020 Swing States
Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden continues to lead President Donald Trump in key swing states and nationally, according to recent polling. But polls also show that a significant number of voters remain undecided or are considering backing other candidates.
Recent polling in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida--states that former President Barack Obama carried in 2008 and 2012, but Trump won in 2016--showed Biden several points ahead of the incumbent president. Meanwhile, the traditionally Republican stronghold of Arizona appears to be shifting blue, although the state has only voted for a Democratic presidential candidate once in the past five decades.
Ken Farnaso, deputy press secretary for Trump's reelection campaign, dismissed the recent polling results in an email to Newsweek, pointing to the president's victory in 2016 that came despite polling suggesting he would lose.
A supporter of President Donald Trump and a supporter of Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden talk ahead of a Biden Campaign Rally at the National World War I Museum and Memorial on March 7 in Kansas City, Missouri
"2016 proved that polling is notoriously wrong and has always underestimated the president and his ability to connect with the American people. President Trump's America First agenda ushered in an economic renaissance, a renewed national security, strengthened our relationships with our allies, and kept our foes at bay," Farnaso said.
Newsweek has also reached out to the Biden campaign for comment.
In Michigan, which Trump carried by a margin of 0.2 percent of the vote, Biden currently leads by an average of 5.5 points, according to an aggregate of recent polls compiled by Real Clear Politics. A poll conducted by conservative Fox News in April showed Trump trailing by an even greater margin of 8 points, with Biden backed by 49 percent of respondents and the president supported by just 41 percent of Michigan voters. However, that survey also demonstrated that 10 percent of voters in the Midwestern state remained undecided or may vote for another candidate.
The race between Biden and Trump appears to be much closer in Wisconsin, which the president carried by a similarly slim margin of just 0.3 percent in 2016. Real Clear Politics shows Biden ahead by an average of 2.7 points. The most recent survey in the state by Marquette Law School, conducted May 3 to 7, showed Biden ahead by 3 points, with 46 percent of the vote compared to Trump's 43 percent. Again, in that poll, 11 percent of respondents said they were undecided or would vote for someone else.
To the east in Pennsylvania, Biden has a stronger lead over Trump. The president also narrowly won in the 2016 election in the eastern state by 0.7 percent. Currently, the Real Clear Politics average of polls for the state shows Biden ahead by about 6.5 percent. Harper Polling showed in late April that Biden was ahead by 6 points, with support from 49 percent of voters compared to Trump's 43 percent. But 8 percent of respondents remained undecided.
Florida, where Trump officially relocated his state residency from New York in October, also appears to be leaning toward Biden. While the president won the southern state by a wider margin of 1.2 percent in 2016, he's now trailing the former vice president by an average of 3.3 percent, according to the Real Clear Politics aggregate. The most recent poll from Florida Atlantic University, which was conducted earlier this month, shows Biden ahead by 6 points, 53 percent to Trump's 47 percent.
Over in Arizona, Trump appears to be trailing Biden by an even larger margin, despite winning the southwestern state by 3.6 percent in 2016. Currently, the Real Clear Politics average shows Biden ahead by about 4 points. Polling conducted by OH Predictive Insights from May 9 to 11 showed the former vice president ahead by 7 points, with 50 percent compared to Trump's 43 percent. But again, 7 percent of voters in that survey did not firmly back either candidate.
President Donald Trump speaks during a press briefing about coronavirus testing in the Rose Garden of the White House on May 11 in Washington, D.C., and Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden speaks to supporters during a campaign stop at Berston Field House in Flint, Michigan on March 9.
If Biden manages to win Arizona, he'd be the first Democratic presidential candidate to do so since 1996, when former President Bill Clinton won the support of the state during his re-election campaign. Some analysts have suggested that Arizona may become a solidly blue state in the coming years, as Democrats have already taken control of one of the state's Senate seats and are growing more confident that they can flip the other seat in November.
But as Trump's campaign pointed out to Newsweek, leads in polling do not necessarily translate to victory in November. Former Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton was ahead of Trump by double digits in mid-2016, according to many national polls. Although Clinton won nearly 3 million more individual votes than Trump nationwide, the president managed to pull off a series of narrow wins in key battleground states like the ones highlighted above. As a result, Trump won the Electoral College by a significant margin.
Nonetheless, recent national polls continue to show Biden as the clear front-runner among voters. Polling by Fox News conducted from May 17 to May 20 showed the former vice president with support from 48 percent of voters compared to 40 percent who back Trump – a lead of 8 points. Similarly, Rasmussen Reports, a right-wing polling company, shows Biden ahead by 5 points, with 48 percent support compared to 43 percent who back the president.
