华盛顿——一组经济学家周一宣布，随着冠状病毒袭击美国，美国经济在2月份进入衰退，结束了有记录以来最长的扩张期。
这些经济学家表示，就业、收入和支出在2月份达到峰值，随后大幅下降，因为病毒爆发导致全国各地的企业倒闭，标志着在经历了近11年的经济增长后，经济开始下滑。
国家经济研究局内的一个委员会，一个私人非营利组织，决定衰退何时开始和结束。它广义地将衰退定义为“持续几个月以上的经济活动下降”。
出于这个原因，NBER通常要等更长时间才能做出经济低迷的决定。在上一次衰退中，该委员会直到2008年12月才宣布经济处于衰退状态，那是经济实际开始的一年后。但在这种情况下，NBER表示，就业和收入的暴跌如此之快，它可以更快地做出决定。
“就业和生产下降的幅度之大是前所未有的，其波及范围之广遍及整个经济，因此有理由将这一事件定为衰退，尽管事实证明这比之前的收缩要短暂，”NBER小组表示。
按照NBER对衰退的定义，衰退始于上一次扩张结束的同一个月。因为经济在二月达到顶峰，那是衰退正式开始的月份，而不是失业率开始上升的三月。
周一，金融市场对NBER的声明没有什么反应。二月是股票市场由于美联储和国会采取了非同寻常的刺激和支持措施，以及对最严重的经济痛苦可能已经过去的预期，在跌入严重衰退之前，创下了历史新高，目前已基本恢复。
官方公布的失业率为13.3%，低于4月份的14.7%。这两个数字都高于二战以来的任何一次衰退。一个更广泛的就业不足衡量标准是21.2%，其中包括那些已经放弃寻找工作的人和那些已经沦为兼职的人。
周五，政府表示，5月份雇主增加了250万个工作岗位，这是一个意外的收获，表明失业可能已经见底。当就业和产出开始回升，而不是达到衰退前的水平时，衰退就结束了。因此，从技术上讲，衰退可能很快结束。
这将使当前的衰退成为有史以来最短、最严重的一次。预计在经济恢复到大流行前的生产和就业水平之前，还会有一个长期的复苏。一些经济学家表示，这可能需要两年或更长时间，到今年年底，失业率可能仍为10%或更高。
投资银行Evercore ISI的政策经济学家厄尼·泰德斯基表示:“最重要的是要关注复苏的力度，这也是目前最大的不确定性所在。”。
泰德斯基指出，目前还不清楚病毒是否得到控制，是否会出现第二波，或者疫苗是否或何时会被研发出来。
周一，世界银行表示，世界正面临一场健康和经济危机，这场危机以惊人的速度蔓延，将产生全球经济70年来最大的冲击。它预计数百万人将陷入极端贫困。
世界银行在其最新的全球展望中预测，今年国际经济活动将萎缩5.2%，这是自1945-1946年二战结束以来最严重的衰退。5.2%的下滑将是过去150年来第四大全球衰退，仅次于20世纪30年代的大萧条以及第一次世界大战和第二次世界大战之后的时期。
在美国，各州已经开始重新开放经济，从而允许企业召回部分员工工作。但是经济活动只是非常缓慢地恢复。除非美国人愿意恢复他们以前的购物、外出就餐和旅游习惯，否则经济不会完全复苏。这种情况可能不会发生，直到开发出疫苗或测试更广泛地普及。
会计师事务所均富的首席经济学家黛安·斯旺克说，NBER委员会可能会在5月份宣布经济衰退已经结束，因为那个月的招聘有所回升。
“我们可能经历历史上最短的衰退——这似乎很荒谬，但我们可以，”斯旺克说。不过，她表示，经济反弹需要更长的时间。
“这个底部将会非常深，我们不知道我们能多快走出底部，”她说。
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美联社经济记者马丁·克鲁岑格为这篇报道撰稿。
A US recession began in February in the face of coronavirus
WASHINGTON -- The U.S. economy entered a recession in February as the coronavirus struck the nation, a group of economists declared Monday, ending the longest expansion on record.
The economists said that employment, income and spending peaked in February and then fell sharply afterward as the viral outbreak shut down businesses across the country, marking the start of the downturn after nearly 11 full years of economic growth.
A committee within the National Bureau of Economic Research, a private nonprofit group, determines when recessions begin and end. It broadly defines a recession as “a decline in economic activity that lasts more than a few months.”
For that reason, the NBER typically waits longer before making a determination that the economy is in a downturn. In the previous recession, the committee did not declare that the economy was in recession until December 2008, a year after it had actually begun. But in this case, the NBER said the collapse in employment and incomes was so steep that it could much more quickly make a determination.
“The unprecedented magnitude of the decline in employment and production, and its broad reach across the entire economy, warrants the designation of this episode as a recession, even if it turns out to be briefer than earlier contractions,” the NBER panel said.
The way the NBER defines recessions, they begin in the same month that the previous expansion ends. Because the economy peaked in February, that is the month when the recession officially began, rather than in March, when unemployment began to rise.
Financial markets had little reaction Monday to the NBER's declaration. February is when thestock markethit its own record high before stumbling into a severe downturn from which it has mostly recovered, thanks to extraordinary stimulus and support measures from the Federal Reserve and Congress as well as expectations that the worst of the economic pain may have passed.
The unemployment rate is officially 13.3%, down from 14.7% in April. Both figures are higher than in any other downturn since World War II. A broader measure of underemployment that includes those who have given up looking and those who have been reduced to part-time status is 21.2%.
On Friday, the government said that employers added 2.5 million jobs in May, an unexpected gain that suggested job losses may have bottomed out. A recession ends when employment and output start to pick up again, not when they reach their pre-recession levels. So it's possible that the recession could technically end soon.
That would make the current recession the shortest and deepest on record. It is expected to be followed by an extended recovery before the economy manages to regain its pre-pandemic levels of production and employment. Some economists say it could take two years or more, with the unemployment rate likely still 10% or higher at the end of this year.
“The most important thing to focus on is the strength of the recovery, and that’s where the greatest uncertainty lies right now,” said Ernie Tedeschi, policy economist at investment bank Evercore ISI.
It's unclear, Tedeschi noted, whether the virus is under control, whether there will be a second wave or whether or when a vaccine will be developed.
On Monday, the World Bank said the world was facing a health and economic crisis that has spread with astonishing speed and will produce the largest shock the global economy has witnessed in seven decades. It expects millions of people to be pushed into extreme poverty.
In its updated global outlook, the World Bank projected that international economic activity will shrink by 5.2% this year, the deepest recession since a contraction in 1945-46 at the end of World War II. The 5.2% downturn would be the fourth-worst global downturn over the past 150 years, exceeded only by the Great Depression of the 1930s and the periods immediately after World War I and World War II.
In the U.S., states have begun reopening their economies, thereby allowing businesses to recall some employees to work. But economic activity is returning only very gradually. A full recovery won’t occur until Americans are willing to resume their previous habits of shopping, eating out, and traveling. That might not happen until a vaccine is developed or testing is more widely available.
Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, an accounting firm, said the NBER committee might end up declaring this recession to have already ended in May based on the fact that hiring rebounded that month.
“We could have the shortest recession in history — it seems ridiculous, but we could,” Swonk said. Still, it will take much longer for the economy to rebound, she said.
“This bottom is going to be uniquely deep, and we don’t know how fast we will get out of the bottom,” she said.
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AP Economics Writer Martin Crutsinger contributed to this report.
