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尽管有风险,特朗普还是在攻击拜登的年龄上投入巨资

2020-07-09 11:18   美国新闻网   - 

总统唐纳德·特朗普指控他的民主党对手乔·拜登与“激进左派”有联系,并嘲笑他与中国的关系、他在刑事司法方面的记录、他对流行病的计划,甚至他儿子的商业交易。

但在一场由大量竞选资金支持的厨房洗碗池攻势中,74岁的特朗普迄今为止投资了一条最重要的攻击路线:指控他77岁的对手年龄太大、精神太弱,无法成为一名有效的总统。这一攻击引发了对年龄歧视的呼声,而且有证据表明它可能是无效的。抛开风险不谈,特朗普的团队正投入数百万美元进行大刀阔斧的改革,并在本周发誓不会退缩。

离选举日还有不到四个月,特朗普在一个电视广告上花的钱比今年任何一个广告都多,该广告声称拜登缺乏“领导这个国家的力量、耐力和精神毅力”。

据媒体追踪公司广告分析(Admineral Analytics)汇编的数据显示,自6月中旬以来,这个30秒的广告位及其西班牙对等广告位已覆盖12个州,包括佛罗里达州和亚利桑那州等退休天堂,费用为650万美元。该公司指出,最近几天,特朗普发起了一场无关的攻击,指责拜登支持极左派推动解散警察部门,尽管他说他不支持。

尽管如此,本周全国各地的电视继续关注拜登的年龄和智力,并出现了一波相关的数字广告,询问选民拜登是否“老了,不在人世”一个支持特朗普的超级政治行动委员会制作的独立电视广告公开暗示拜登患有痴呆症。尽管缺乏证据,特朗普的保守派媒体盟友每天都在放大这一信息。

罗伯特·布兰卡托是美国退休人员协会的董事会成员,最近还担任美国老龄化协会的主席,他谴责了他所认为的公然的“年龄歧视”攻击。他代表自己,而不是美国退休人员协会说,这种攻击不属于政治。

“不是世界上每个人都能成为种族主义的受害者,也不是世界上每个人都能成为性别歧视的受害者,但每个人都有可能成为年龄歧视的受害者,”他说。他预测,针对年龄的广告会适得其反地影响特朗普的竞选。“当你陷入年龄歧视时,我不知道你在呼吁什么样的基础。”

然而,尽管没有已知的医学证据表明两位候选人都在下降,但年龄和智力仍然是2020年两位候选人的一个关键问题。如果拜登今年秋天击败特朗普,他将成为美国历史上最年长的第一任总统。拜登将于11月20日满78岁。特朗普于6月14日年满74岁,保持着目前的记录。两人都容易失态,在剧本之外信口开河。

统计数据显示,在决定哪位候选人应该在未来四年从事世界上压力最大的工作时,选民考虑年龄是公平的。

根据一项研究,拜登这个年龄的普通人有21%的机会在他的第一个任期内无法生存,特朗普这个年龄的普通人有15%的机会在他的第二个任期内无法生存健康伊利诺伊大学芝加哥分校公共卫生教授斯杰伊·奥尔森斯基主持的总统候选人名单。

作者说,然而,拜登和特朗普都有可能是“超级高龄者”,他们的预期寿命将远远超过平均水平。

虽然这项研究没有考虑到他们的健康史,但奥尔森斯基认为拜登可能比特朗普更健康,奥尔森斯基指出特朗普肥胖,通常吃得不好,不经常锻炼,他的父亲患有老年痴呆症。

他说两个竞选团队都不应该利用年龄来获得政治分数。

“他们正在以一种可怕的方式将年龄武器化,”奥尔森斯基谈到特朗普团队时说。“如果形势逆转,乔·拜登将武器化唐纳德·特朗普他会有很多材料要处理。"

虽然拜登迄今一直拒绝攻击特朗普的年龄或精神健康,但由几名共和党竞选人员管理的反特朗普团体林肯计划(Lincoln Project)最近已经向他靠拢。该组织制作了一段视频,指控特朗普“没有领导的力量”,抓住了总统上月演讲后笨拙地走下坡道的镜头。

今年春天,由共和党全国委员会委托进行的一项民意调查表明,对拜登精神敏锐度的攻击并没有动摇有说服力的选民。正如《纽约时报》首次报道的那样,民意调查发现,对拜登进步政策和他增税意愿的更多传统批评产生了更好的共鸣。

公众投票也表明,比起相信特朗普,更多的选民可能相信拜登有能力应对总统任期的严峻考验。蒙莫斯大学上周公布的一项民意调查发现,52%的选民至少对拜登有当总统的精神和身体耐力有些信心,而45%的人对特朗普有同样的看法。

与此同时,共和党人担心最近的民调显示,拜登在老年选民中的表现比四年前的希拉里·克林顿要好得多。

特朗普的竞选宣传主任蒂姆·墨菲说,对拜登年龄和智力的攻击应该引起“每个美国人”的共鸣他坚称,尽管担心年龄歧视,特朗普的团队不会放弃攻击。

“他走神了,他失去了他的思路,他忘记了要点,”墨菲说拜登。“美国人应该有一位能够处理这份艰苦工作的总统。乔·拜登并没有表明他能做到,事实上,他展示了他不能做到的惊人迹象。”

拜登的发言人安德鲁·贝茨(Andrew Bates)回击道:“如果特朗普的竞选团队认为,他们支持率急剧下降的原因是他们又一次遭遇了一年多的负面诽谤,那么坦率地说,可能不仅仅是唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)遗漏了什么——还有他的竞选团队的‘战略家’"

 

Despite risks, Trump invests big in attacks on Biden's age

PresidentDonald Trumphas accused his Democratic rivalJoe Bidenof having connections to the “radical left” and has pilloried his relationship with China, his record on criminal justice, his plans for the pandemic and even his son's business dealings.

But in a kitchen-sink offensive backed by a mountain of campaign cash, the 74-year-old Trump has so far invested in one line of attack above all: the charge that his 77-year-old opponent is too old and mentally weak to be an effective president. The attack has drawn cries of ageism, and there is evidence it may be ineffective. Shrugging off the risks, Trump’s team is pumping millions of dollars into the broadside and vowed this week not to back off.

With Election Day less than four months away, Trump has spent more money on one television ad claiming that Biden lacks “the strength, the stamina and the mental fortitude to lead this country” than any other single ad this year.

The 30-second spot and its Spanish equivalent have been running across 12 states, including retirement havens like Florida and Arizona, since mid-June at a cost of $6.5 million, according to data compiled by the media tracking firm Advertising Analytics. The firm noted a shift in recent days toward an unrelated Trump attack accusing Biden of supporting the far-left push to defund police departments, although he said he doesn't.

Still, the focus on Biden's age and mental competence continued this week on television sets across the country, backed by a wave of related digital ads asking voters whether Biden “is old and out of it.” A separate television ad produced by a pro-Trump super PAC openly suggests Biden has dementia. The message has been amplified daily by Trump's conservative media allies, despite a lack of evidence.

Robert Blancato, who sits on the board of AARP and recently chaired the American Society on Aging, decries what he sees as blatant “ageist” attacks. Speaking for himself, not AARP, he said such attacks don't belong in politics.

“Not everybody in the world can be a victim of racism, not everybody in the world can be a victim of sexism, but everybody has potential to be a victim of ageism,” he said, predicting that ads focusing on age would backfire on the Trump campaign. “When you get into ageism, I don’t know what base you’re appealing to.”

Yet while there is no known medical evidence that either candidate is declining, age and mental competence remain a key issue in 2020 for both candidates. Should he defeat Trump this fall, Biden, who turns 78 on Nov. 20, would be the oldest first-term president in U.S. history. Trump, who turned 74 on June 14, holds the current record. Both men are prone to gaffes and rambling when off script.

Statistics suggest it's fair for voters to consider age when deciding which candidate should spend the next four years in one of the world's most stressful jobs.

There is a 21% chance that an average man of Biden's age would not survive his first term and a 15% chance that an average man of Trump's would not survive his second, according to a study examining the longevity andhealthof the presidential candidates conducted by S. Jay Olshansky, a professor of public health at the University of Illinois at Chicago.

The author says it is likely, however, that both Biden and Trump are “super agers” whose life expectancy would extend well beyond average.

While the study did not take into account their health histories, Olshansky suggests that Biden may be in better health than Trump, who Olshansky notes is obese, generally doesn't eat well, doesn't exercise regularly and whose father suffered from Alzheimer's disease.

He said neither campaign should use age to score political points.

“They’re weaponizing age in a terrible way,” Olshansky said of the Trump team. “If the tables were turned and Joe Biden were to weaponize age againstDonald Trump, he would have a whole lot of material to work with.”

While Biden has so far resisted attacking Trump's age or mental health, the anti-Trump group known as the Lincoln Project, which is run by several Republican campaign operatives, has recently leaned in. The group produced a video charging that Trump “doesn't have the strength to lead," seizing on footage of the president walking awkwardly down a ramp after a speech last month.

A poll commissioned by the Republican National Committee this spring determined that attacks on Biden's mental acuity didn't sway persuadable voters. As first reported by The New York Times, the poll found that more traditional criticism of Biden's progressive policies and his willingness to raise taxes resonated better.

Public polling also suggests that more voters may trust Biden's ability to handle the rigors of the presidency than they trust Trump's. A Monmouth University poll released last week found that 52% of voters were at least somewhat confident that Biden has the mental and physical stamina to be president, while 45% said the same about Trump.

At the same time, Republicans are concerned about recent polls showing that Biden is doing significantly better among older voters than Hillary Clinton did four years ago.

Trump campaign communications director Tim Murtaugh said that attacks on Biden's age and mental competence should resonate with “every American.” He insisted that Trump's team would not back off the line of attack, despite concerns of ageism.

“His mind wanders, he loses his train of thought, he forgets points,” Murtaugh said of Biden. “Americans deserve a president who can handle the rigors of the job. Joe Biden hasn't shown that he can, and in fact, shows alarming signs that he can’t.”

Biden spokesperson Andrew Bates fired back: “If the Trump campaign believes the answer to their precipitously dropping support is to triple-down on yet another smear that's backfired on them for over a year, then frankly, maybe it's not just Donald Trump who's missing something — but also his campaign's ‘strategists.'"

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