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538名成员选举团定于周一投票选举总统和副总统

2020-12-14 13:01   美国新闻网   - 

委员会的538名成员选举团定于周一投票选举总统和副总统,标志着当选总统乔·拜登的胜利正式迈出了又一步。

投票传统上只不过是一种形式。但是今年,总统唐纳德·特朗普处处抵制他的失败,并与他进行长期的法律斗争毫无根据的主张关于广泛的欺诈,这次会议是在该国民主机构处于紧张和脆弱的时刻召开的,无论即将离任的总统是否试图破坏选举进程,这次会议都将举行。

在拜登1月20日宣誓就职之前,选民将认定他为获胜者。他在选举团中的胜算是预期的306票对特朗普的232票,如果没有意外的话。

以下是周一的预测概要:

什么是选举团?

虽然公众选举国会议员、州长、州议员、市长和其他地方官员,国家的最高职位由选举团决定宪法的一个模糊的痕迹,它是作为授权国会或有能力选举总统的民众多数之间的妥协而建立的。

在每一届总统选举中选举早在1789年该国第一次选举时,选民们就为一批选民投票,这些选民通常是由一个州的政党提名的党派忠诚者,承诺支持被提名者。

选民反映了基于国会代表性的各州权力分配,每四年由各州的政党在总统选举前几个月决定。选择选民的过程因州而异,一些州在党代会上提名选民,而另一些州则由选民在初选过程中选举他们。

选举人通常是每个政党的重要人物。在纽约,前总统比尔·克林顿和2016年民主党总统候选人希拉里·克林顿都是拜登的选民,而2018年民主党州长候选人兼投票权倡导者斯塔西·艾布拉姆斯(Stacey Abrams)将是格鲁吉亚当选总统的选民。在特朗普获胜的南达科他州,可能成为2024年总统候选人的共和党州长克里斯蒂·诺姆(Kristi Noem)将投票给现任总统。

选民在何时何地开会?

联邦法律要求选民在“总统选举年12月的第二个星期三之后的星期一”见面,但他们在各自的州和国家首都由州立法机关决定的地方聚集。

“选举团不是一个机构。它不随着时间的推移而存在,它甚至不存在于任何一个物理位置。纽约大学宪法学教授、选举法专家理查德·皮尔德斯说:“这是一系列选民在这一刻走到一起,然后解散的过程。”。“一旦他们投了票,这些票就不能改变了。”

大多数人将在他们州议会的内庭集会,分别投票选举总统和副总统。会议的时间也是由每个州设定的,所以预计投票将在周一全天进行,从东部时间上午10点开始。

在流感大流行期间,许多州正在将四年一次的集会从盛况空前转变成一种简单的形式,人群要少得多,公众参与也很有限。

周一会发生什么?

在一场典型的低调事件中,每个州的选民名单将通过纸质选票投出两票。

一旦计票完毕,选举人会在六张证书上签名。单独的证书提交给美国档案员、参议院议长(该国副总统)、国务卿和选举人会面地区的美国地区法院法官。

在选举团中获得大多数选票(或270张选票)的候选人被正式选入白宫。

所谓的‘不忠实’选民怎么办?

一些专家预计今年不会出现任何“不忠实”选民的情况。

皮尔德斯说:“因为乔·拜登赢得了如此多的剩余选民,任何一两个选民叛逃的诱惑都不存在,因为这不可能影响结果。”“[而且]如果各政党已经完成了他们的工作,提出了选举人名单,他们将在该州为他们的候选人赢得普选,我们完全有理由相信他们是这样做的,那么选举人将根据他们所在州的普选投票。”

但还是有可能的。

一些人可能会违背自己的承诺,去投票给他们政党的候选人,就像2016年七个人成功做到的那样,但这在美国历史上很少发生。

今年早些时候,最高法院裁定关于“无信仰的选民”一案,宪法允许约束选民投票给普选获胜者。

三十三个州和华盛顿特区要求选民遵守他们的誓言。至少有五个州存在对违抗投票的惩罚,而十几个州取消并替换了流氓选民。未来几年可能会颁布更多法律,要求选民跟随普选。

接下来会发生什么?

选举团的会议标志着一场漫长而艰巨的选举的高潮,这场选举是在前所未有的情况下进行的。但是正式选举的过程并没有随着选举人的投票而结束。

然后,这一过程转移到国会,1月6日,参议院和众议院举行联席会议,计算选举人票。

国会开会时,预计会有一些戏剧性的场面。至少有一名共和党众议员,阿拉巴马州众议员莫·布鲁克斯,反对总统选举人名单的计划这一努力可能只是象征性的表态,将总统竞选结果的认证推迟几个小时,而不是改变选举结果。

根据联邦法律,众议院或参议院的成员可以对任何州的选举团结果提出异议,迫使众议院和参议院分开长达两个小时的辩论,并就是否接受选民名单进行投票。根据该法案,两院中的大多数都必须支持该动议,才能成功挑战特定的选民名单国会研究服务局。

大多数州都受到“安全港”条款的保护,该条款是联邦法律的一部分,该法律规定,如果各州在截止日期前解决了与选举有关的争议,包括重新计票、审计和法律纠纷,他们的选票被认为是“决定性的”,国会有义务进行计票。除了威斯康星州之外,所有州都在今年12月8日之前成功解决了对选举结果的挑战。

虽然战场可能不属于避风港地位,但专家告诉美国广播公司新闻,这可能没那么重要,尤其是在没有选民候选人的情况下。

卡多佐法学教授、美国广播公司新闻(ABC News)法律分析师凯特·肖(Kate Shaw)表示:“安全港让它变得无可争议,但缺乏安全港并没有突然引发一些关于威斯康星州选民是谁的大问题。”她称该法规“不太重要”。

布法罗大学专门研究选举法的法学教授詹姆斯·加德纳说:“如果你错过了安全港日,根据《选举计票法》,国会没有义务计算这些选票。”。“这并不意味着他们不会。他们会的。...在大多数情况下,这主要是理论意义大于实际意义。”
 

The Electoral College meets on Monday. Here's what to expect.

The 538 members of theElectoral Collegeare set to cast votes for president and vice president on Monday -- marking another step toward making President-elect Joe Biden's victory official.

The vote is traditionally little more than a formality. But this year, with PresidentDonald Trumpresisting his defeat at every turn and waging long-shot legal battles withbaseless claimsof widespread fraud, the meeting comes at a tense and fragile moment for the country's democratic institutions and is one that will happen irrespective of the outgoing president's efforts to subvert the electoral process.

The electors will seal Biden as the winner ahead of his swearing in at the inauguration on Jan. 20. His margin of victory in the Electoral College isexpectedto be 306 votes to Trump's 232, if there are no surprises.

Here's a rundown of what to expect on Monday:

What is the Electoral College?

While the public elects members of Congress, governors, state legislators, mayors and other local officers,the nation's highest office is determined by the Electoral College-- an obscure vestige of the Constitution that was established as a compromise between empowering Congress or a popular majority with the ability to elect the president.

In every presidentialelection, dating back to the country's first in 1789, voters cast their ballots for a slate of electors, who are often party loyalists nominated by a state's political party to pledge support to the nominee.

The electors, who reflect the distribution of power across the states based on congressional representation, are decided every four years by each state's political parties in the months before the presidential election. The process for choosing the electors varies by state, with some nominating their electors at party conventions, while others leave it to voters to elect them during the primary process.

The electors are often prominent figures in each party. In New York, both former President Bill Clinton and 2016 Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton are electors for Biden, while Stacey Abrams, the 2018 Democratic gubernatorial candidate and voting rights advocate, will be an elector for the president-elect in Georgia. In South Dakota, where Trump won, Republican Gov. Kristi Noem, a possible 2024 presidential contender, will cast her vote for the current president.

When and where are the electors meeting?

The electors are required by federal law to meet the "Monday after the second Wednesday in December of presidential election years," but they gather in each of their respective states and the nation's capital at places determined by the state legislature.

"The Electoral College is not an institution. It doesn't exist over time, it doesn't even exist in any one physical place. It's the series of electors coming together for this one moment and then dissolving," said Richard Pildes, a professor of constitutional law at New York University and an expert on election law. "And once they have cast their vote, those votes can't be changed."

Most will convene inside the chambers of their state capitols to cast separate ballots for president and vice president. The time of the meeting is also set by each state, so expect votes to be cast throughout the day on Monday, starting at 10 a.m. ET.

In the middle of a pandemic, a number of states are transforming the quadrennial gathering from pomp and circumstance to a bare-bones formality with much smaller crowds and limited public access, if any.

What happens on Monday?

Each state's slate of electors will cast two votes by a paper ballot in a typically low-drama affair.

Once the votes are tallied, the electors sign six certificates with the results. The separate certificates are submitted to the archivist of the United States, the president of the Senate (the country's vice president), the secretary of state and to the judge of the U.S. district court of the district where the electors met.

The candidates who receive a majority of the vote across the Electoral College -- or 270 votes -- are formally elected to the White House.

What about so-called 'faithless' electors?

Some experts aren't anticipating any spectacles with "faithless" electors this year.

"Because Joe Biden has won with such a large surplus of electors, the temptation for any one or two electors to defect is not present because it couldn't possibly affect the outcome," Pildes said. "[And] if the political parties have done their job in putting forward slates of electors who are going to honor the popular vote in the state for their candidate, which we have every reason to believe they were, then the electors are going to vote in accord with the popular vote in their state."

But it is still a possibility.

Some can break their pledge to vote for their party's nominee, as seven successfully did in 2016, but this has happened very few times in the nation's history.

Earlier this year,the Supreme Court ruledon the "faithless electors" case, making it constitutionally permissible to bind electors to vote for the popular vote winner.

Thirty-three states, and Washington, D.C., require electors to keep their pledge. In at least five states, penalties exist for defiant votes, while over a dozen states cancel and replace the rogue elector. More laws are likely to be enacted over the coming years to require electors to follow the popular vote.

What happens next?

The meeting of the Electoral College marks the culmination of a long and an arduous election, one that took place in the midst of unprecedented circumstances. But the process for formalizing the election does not end with the vote by the electors.

The process then moves to Congress, where a joint session of the Senate and House meet on Jan. 6 to count the electoral votes.

Some theatrics are expected when Congress gathers. At least one Republican House member, Rep. Mo Brooks of Alabama,plans to object to the slate of presidential electorsfrom multiple states -- an effort that would likely only make a symbolic stand, and delay the certification of the presidential race results by hours, rather than alter the election results.

Under federal law, a member of the House or Senate can contest the Electoral College results from any state, forcing the House and Senate to separate for up to two hours of debate and vote on whether to accept a slate of electors. A majority of both chambers would have to support the motion to successfully challenge a given slate of electors, according to theCongressional Research Service.

Most states are shielded by the "safe harbor" provision, which is part of a federal law that says if states resolve election-related disputes, including recounts, audits and legal fights, before the deadline, their electoral votes are considered "conclusive" and binds Congress to count them. All but one state, Wisconsin, successfully settled challenges over the results of the election before this year's date, which fell on Dec. 8.

While the battleground might not fall under safe harbor status, experts told ABC News it might not matter all that much, particularly without dueling slates of electors at play.

"Safe harbor makes it kind of beyond dispute, but the lack of safe harbor doesn't all of the sudden open up some big question about who the electors from Wisconsin are," said Kate Shaw, a Cardozo law professor and ABC News legal analyst, who called the statute not "terribly significant."

"If you miss the safe harbor day, Congress isn't obliged by the Electoral Count Act to count those electoral votes," said James Gardner, a professor of law at the University of Buffalo who specializes in election law. "That doesn't mean that they won't. They will. ... It's mainly of a more theoretical than practical significance in most circumstances."

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