一位经济学家警告称，冠状病毒还可能在长期内从中国传播经济传染病。专家们正在评估这种疾病造成的金融后果。这种疾病已导致至少1700人死亡，7万人患病。
中国农历新年期间因疾病导致的长时间停工已经严重损害了中国经济，工厂关闭，工人留在家中。
投资银行野村证券(Nomura)的数据显示，中国第一季度经济增长预测下调至3%，较去年第四季度下降了3%，这是自1989年天安门广场大屠杀以来实际国内生产总值(GDP)增长出现的最大季度降幅金融时报星期一。
2020年1月21日，中国北京，一年一度的春节前，中国儿童在北京火车站等火车时戴着防护面具。经济学家警告说，这种流行病会带来严重的金融冲击。
研究公司资本经济(Capital Economics)的首席经济学家尼尔·谢林(Neil Shearing)警告称，有迹象表明，中国的经济混乱正在蔓延至其他国家。
谢林指出，自1999年亚洲金融危机以来，中国对韩国的出口出现了最大幅度的下滑。他表示，长期关闭可能意味着中国失去的产出永远无法恢复。
中国工厂的关闭意味着零部件的短缺，这将导致企业重新评估大型复杂的供应链。
“如果中国的封锁继续下去，不可避免的会有更多。很难判断这种病毒的经济影响在未来十天内会如何发展，更不用说未来十年了。
“但有可能的是，在政策和技术方面，我们可能很快不得不将全球大流行病的威胁……加入威胁全球化未来的因素清单，”他在《资本经济学》网站的一篇评论文章中写道。
在对的评论中新闻周刊Shearing补充说，企业将会质疑以目前的规模维持供应链的好处。
“维持供应链消耗了很多公司的营运资本。在一个没有替代技术的自由贸易世界里，经济学是有意义的。
“但是，向更大的贸易壁垒的转变，加上新技术允许企业重塑生产的某些方面，可能意味着企业开始缩短供应链。
“大流行病或自然灾害带来的破坏风险将增加这种转变的理由。这一切都表明，生产变得更加本地化，或者更有可能是地区化，”他告诉记者新闻周刊。
中国央行宣布计划向市场注入1.2万亿元人民币(1730亿美元)，以稳定资产价格。中国共产党杂志《中国日报》也在计划有针对性的减税和增加政府支出丘石报道，被CNBC引用。
在对的评论中新闻周刊投资经纪公司EXANTE的高级分析师马修·希曼(Matthew Hinman)表示，中国投资者正处于下一步该做什么的“十字路口”。
“中国的言辞仍然致力于做任何需要做的事情，但这可能还不够，”他表示。“世界各地的货币政策制定者将无法防止冠状病毒……可能对世界增长造成的系统冲击。”
本月早些时候，投资银行Natixis亚太区首席经济学家艾丽西娅·加西亚-赫雷罗告诉记者新闻周刊那冠状病毒会损害中国经济比2003年的非典时期要多，这是由于过去17年中国经济的增长，以及从依赖制造业向服务业的转变。
这Statista下图显示了冠状病毒确诊病例的位置。
一张信息图显示了COVID-19病例在世界各地的确诊情况。
CORONAVIRUS IS 'THREATENING THE FUTURE OF GLOBALIZATION,' ECONOMIST SAYS
Coronavirus could also spread economic contagion from China over the long term, an economist has warned, as experts assess the financial fallout from the illness that has killed at least 1,700 people and sickened 70,000.
The extended shutdown in China over the Lunar New Year due to the illness has already hurt the country's economy significantly as factories closed and workers remained at home.
China's first-quarter growth forecast has been slashed to three per cent—a three-percentage drop from the fourth quarter last year—and the largest quarterly drop in real GDP growth since the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989, according to the investment bank, Nomura, cited by the Financial Times on Monday.
Chinese children wear protective masks as they wait to board trains at Beijing Railway station before the annual Spring Festival on January 21, 2020 in Beijing, China. Economists are warning of a severe financial impact to the epidemic.
Chief economist from research company Capital Economics, Neil Shearing, warned that there are signs the economic disruption to China was spreading to other countries.
Pointing to the biggest slump in Chinese exports to South Korea since the Asia financial crisis in 1999, Shearing said that a prolonged shutdown might mean that lost output in China would never be recovered.
Factory closures in China mean a shortage of component parts which would cause companies to reassess large and complex supply chains.
"More will inevitably follow if the closures in China continue. It's difficult to judge how the economic effects of the virus will play out over the next ten days, let alone the next ten years.
"But it's possible that, to policy and technology, we may soon have to add the threat of global pandemics…to the list of factors threatening the future of globalisation," he wrote in an op-ed on Capital Economics' website.
In comments to Newsweek, Shearing added that firms will question the benefits of maintaining supply chains on their current scale.
"Maintaining supply chains eats up a lot of firms' working capital. The economics made sense in a world of free trade and without alternative technologies.
"But a shift towards more greater trade barriers, coupled with new technologies that allow firms to reshore some aspects of production, may mean firms start to shorten supply chains.
"The risk of disruption posed by pandemics or natural disasters would add to the reasons to make this shift. That would all point to production becoming more localised or, perhaps more likely, regionalised," he told Newsweek.
China's central bank announced plans to inject 1.2 trillion yuan ($173 billion) in the markets, to stabilize asset prices. It is also planning targeted tax cuts and an increase of government spending, China's Communist Party magazine Qiushi reported, cited by CNBC.
In comments to Newsweek, senior analyst at investment broker EXANTE, Matthew Hinman, said that investors in China are at a "crossroads" over what to do next.
"China's rhetoric remains committed to doing whatever is needed but that still may not be enough," he said. "Monetary policy makers around the world will not be able to prevent shocks to the system that coronavirus…could cause to world growth."
Earlier this month, Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at investment bank Natixis, told Newsweek that the coronavirus would hurt China's economy more than SARS did in 2003, due to the growth of its economy over the last 17 years and its shift towards the service sector, away from a reliance on manufacturing.
The Statista graphic below shows the locations of confirmed cases of coronavirus.An infographic showing where cases of COVID-19 have been confirmed across the world.
