经过“超级星期二”一战，美国2020年总统大选民主党内的竞选形势基本明朗。20多个总统参选人经过党内激烈厮杀，目前只剩前副总统拜登、佛蒙特州联邦参议员桑德斯2人还在缠斗。随着前纽约市长、亿万富豪布隆伯格尴尬退选，与拜登和桑德斯差距明显的马萨诸塞州联邦参议员沃伦也于5日宣布退出竞选。而共和党一边已经奏响胜利的凯歌，《纽约时报》4日称，拜登和桑德斯正是特朗普最想面对的对手，因为他们都有明显的弱点。特朗普竞选团队成员蒂姆·墨托说，“现实就是，我们赢定了。”
拜登和桑德斯有得一拼
截至当地时间4日，拜登打败了先前在民调中领先的桑德斯，赢得马萨诸塞、阿肯色、明尼苏达等10个州的多数票，获得566张党代表票，而桑德斯获得501张，沃伦只拿到61张。美国媒体评价称，拜登是“现代史上以最大、最快、最出乎意料的方式重磅回归”的总统参选人，他和桑德斯将对决民主党总统候选人提名之战。但是，要想取得胜利，在党内初选中拿到3979张中的1991张党代表票，拜登和桑德斯目前来看差距还不算大，两人有得一拼。
按计划，民主党今年7月将举行全国代表大会，拜登和桑德斯也仅剩三个多月时间，两人必须争出个高下。这不只是政策观点、个人魅力之争，更是他们代表的背后势力之争。桑德斯向来特立独行，在民主党内也属于“异类”，是极左派势力的代表，他的竞选主张：全民医保、免除公立大学学费、提高最低工资等，对美国草根阶层和年轻群体有很大的吸引力。
而拜登则是民主党建制派的代表，政策主张属于中左派，很大程度上愿意继承前总统奥巴马时代的政策。更为重要的是，他曾两次竞选总统，在奥巴马时代担任副总统8年，收获了大量非洲裔选民支持。此外，拜登还得到了退出竞选的布蒂吉格、克洛布切和布隆伯格的背书。不过，特朗普对拜登在乌克兰“通话门”中被指利用职权帮助在乌克兰布里斯马天然气公司任职的儿子逃避调查一事紧追不舍，称这将会是拜登最大的阻碍。
共和党内凯歌高奏
让人不可忽视的是，在民主党内战鼓咚咚之时，共和党内却是凯歌高奏，这凯歌无疑是为特朗普而奏。特朗普依仗现任总统的优越条件，党内至今没有出现重量级的对手，一场接一场的党团会议在各州次第召开，每场都是特朗普的主场，也是胜场。在爱达荷、新罕布什尔等州的党内预选中，特朗普的支持率都是90%以上，得票率远超过去40年来所有竞选连任的现任总统。
因而，目前的大选形势与2016年正好翻了个个儿，当时希拉里在民主党中木秀于林，特朗普则在共和党内过五关斩六将。如今民主党内两虎相争，特朗普则有点独孤求败的意思。不过，七八月份之后，不论是拜登还是桑德斯，对特朗普而言，都将会是一场恶战。“超级星期二”选情明朗后，拜登当着大批选民的面公开向特朗普叫板：“这次竞选活动绝对将让唐纳德·特朗普打铺盖卷回家。”特朗普就更不用说了，这位怼天怼地又怼人的主儿挖苦拜登说：“你看那个‘瞌睡虫乔’，无能无为，没戏!”
千好万好不如命好
其实，等共和、民主两党确定总统候选人之后，大选不只是两位候选人间的竞争，更是两党间的对抗。除政策主张、个人魅力外，更加重要的是经济形势，正如1992年克林顿竞选总统时所说的名言：笨蛋，还是经济说了算。在第一任期，特朗普虽说遭遇了“通俄门”“通话门”“猎艳门”以及前不久的弹劾案，但都有惊无险。目前，美国经济总体形势向好，失业率处于数十年来的低位，通货膨胀率也在低位徘徊，多数美国人对目前的经济状况还是满意的。这很大程度上是奥巴马政府积累的功劳，但千好万好不如命好，特朗普遇上了，这也就成了他的政绩。
美国分析人士认为，8月份以后，如果是桑德斯和特朗普竞争，那会大有看头。一个是极左派代表，一个是极右派代表，美国政治将“严重两极化”，整个社会将随之严重撕裂，无疑会是一场针尖对麦芒的对抗; 如果是拜登和特朗普比拼，那是中左势力和极右势力的对抗。在保持基本盘的情况下，拜登若能拉拢到“粉色力量”妇女及“有色力量”非裔和拉美裔民众的大力支持，特朗普实现连任梦就悬了。但特朗普有自己的优势，一是现任总统的光环，二是总体经济向好的支撑，三是共和党内的紧密团结。如果不出现更大的“黑天鹅”，再干四年大有希望。
After Bloomberg and Warren dropped out, the trump campaign cheered: we are sure to win
After the "Super Tuesday" World War I, the election situation in the Democratic Party of the US presidential election in 2020 is basically clear. More than 20 presidential candidates have been fighting fiercely in the party. At present, only former Vice President Biden and Senator Sanders of Vermont are still fighting. With former New York mayor and billionaire Bloomberg embarrassed to withdraw from the election, Massachusetts Senator Warren, who has a clear gap with Biden and Sanders, also announced his withdrawal from the election on the 5th. On the other hand, the Republican Party has played the triumphant Kaige. The New York Times said Thursday that Biden and Sanders are Trump's favorite rivals because they have obvious weaknesses. "The reality is, we're going to win," said Tim moto, a member of the trump campaign
Biden and Sanders have a fight
As of Thursday local time, Biden beat Sanders, who had previously led in the polls, and won a majority of 10 states including Massachusetts, Arkansas and Minnesota, with 566 party delegates, while Sanders got 501 and Warren got only 61. Biden is "the biggest, fastest and most unexpected presidential candidate in modern history" and he and Sanders will fight for the Democratic presidential nomination, according to US media. However, if we want to win, we can get 1991 party delegates out of 3979 in the primary election. At present, Biden and Sanders don't have a big gap. They have to fight each other.
According to the plan, the Democratic Party will hold a National Congress in July this year. Biden and Sanders have only three months left. They have to fight for the top. This is not only a dispute over policy views and personal charm, but also a dispute over the forces behind them. Sanders has always been a maverick and "alien" in the Democratic Party. He is a representative of the far left. His campaign claims: universal health insurance, exemption from tuition fees of public universities, raising the minimum wage, etc., which are very attractive to the grassroots and young groups in the United States.
Biden, on the other hand, is a representative of the Democratic Party Construction Group. The policy proposition belongs to the middle left, and he is willing to inherit the policies of the former President Obama era to a large extent. What's more, he ran for president twice, served as vice president in the Obama era for eight years, and gained a lot of support from African American voters. In addition, Biden was endorsed by retiring butiquig, klobuche and Bloomberg. Trump, however, is keen on Biden's alleged use of his power in Ukraine's "call gate" to help his son, who works for Ukrainian gas company brisma, escape the investigation, saying it would be Biden's biggest obstacle.
Republican Party triumphant Anthem
It can't be ignored that when the Democratic Party is in full swing, the Republican Party is playing a triumphant song, which is undoubtedly for trump. Depending on the advantages of the current president, trump has not had any serious opponents in the party so far. One after another party and League meetings have been held in each state, each of which is Trump's home court and victory. In Idaho, New Hampshire and other states, Trump's support rate is more than 90%, far higher than all the current presidents who have run for re-election in the past 40 years.
As a result, the current election situation has just turned a corner from 2016, when Hillary Clinton showed off among Democrats and trump cut six generals in the Republican Party. Now the Democratic Party is fighting against each other, and trump is a bit of a maverick. However, after July and August, whether Biden or Sanders, it will be a fierce battle for trump. After the "Super Tuesday" election was clear, Biden publicly challenged trump in front of a large number of voters: "this campaign will definitely make Donald Trump go home." Trump, to say nothing of it, said Biden sarcastically, "look at that sleepy Joe. He's incompetent. He can't do anything!"
Life is better than good
In fact, after the Republican and democratic parties determine the presidential candidates, the general election is not only a competition between the two candidates, but also a confrontation between the two parties. In addition to policy and personal charm, the more important thing is the economic situation, as Clinton famously said when he ran for president in 1992: fools, or the economy has the final say. In his first term, trump suffered from "communication with Russia", "communication door", "hunting for beauty door" and impeachment cases not long ago, but all of them were thrilling. At present, the overall situation of the U.S. economy is good, the unemployment rate is at a low level for decades, and the inflation rate is also at a low level. Most Americans are satisfied with the current economic situation. To a large extent, this is the credit accumulated by the Obama administration, but it's better to die than to die. Trump met it, and it became his achievements.
American analysts believe that after August, if it is sanders and trump who compete, it will have a bright future. One is the representative of the far left and the other is the representative of the far right. American politics will be "seriously polarized", and the whole society will be seriously torn. Undoubtedly, it will be a sharp confrontation with Mai mang. If Biden and trump compete, it will be a confrontation between the left and the far right. If Biden can win the support of "Pink Power" women and "colored power" African Americans and Hispanics, Trump's dream of re-election will be suspended. However, trump has its own advantages: first, the halo of the current president, second, the support of the overall economy, and third, the close unity of the Republican Party. If there is no bigger "black swan", there will be another four years
