纽约-图形监控视频显示，一名男子在人行道上突然猛击某人的头部，将他们击倒在地。
背景是无声的尖叫声和枪声，这段视频将街道和地铁上枪击和殴打的其他监控片段拼接在一起，画外音说，“你现在看到的是凯西·霍楚尔(Kathy Hochul)在纽约拍摄的真实暴力犯罪。”
那不完全正确。
该广告来自共和党众议员李·泽尔丁，他将在下个月的竞选中挑战纽约州州长凯西·霍楚尔选举，包括在加州的一个攻击视频。一些镜头描述了去年Hochul就职前发生的罪行。在承认错误的同时，泽尔丁的竞选团队为这则广告辩护说，广告传达的信息很明确:暴力犯罪已经失控。
这是美国共和党候选人在关键的中期选举的最后一个月发出的主题。犯罪问题是一些竞争最激烈的参议员竞选中的主要广告，包括威斯康星州、宾夕法尼亚州和内华达州的竞选，以及数十场众议院和州长竞选，如纽约的竞选。
这种言论有时是危言耸听，或者真实性值得怀疑，与前总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)的言论非常相似，后者在2020年竞选期间提出了一个后期论点，即民主党领导的城市失控了。这并没有帮助特朗普避免失败，但专家表示，民主党人忽视这些攻击的效力是错误的。
罗格斯大学(Rutgers University)政治学教授丽莎·l·米勒(Lisa L. Miller)说，“当暴力上升时，人们会感到担忧，这时候我们往往会看到它成为一个政治问题，”她专注于将犯罪作为世界各国的一个政治问题。
美国联邦调查局本周公布的年度数据显示，去年暴力犯罪率并没有大幅上升，尽管仍高于疫情之前的水平。这份报告展示了一幅不完整的画面，部分原因是它没有包括美国一些最大的警察部门。
更广泛地说，自疫情以来，美国各地的暴力犯罪和杀人率有所上升，有些地方在触及历史低点后出现飙升。根据布伦南司法中心(Brennan Center for Justice)对犯罪数据的分析，非暴力犯罪在疫情期间有所下降，但谋杀率在2020年增长了近30%，城市和农村地区都有所上升。分析发现，袭击率上升了10%。
这种增长难以解释。专家指出了一些潜在的原因，从对经济和历史高位通胀率的担忧，到紧张的压力和在美国导致100多万人死亡的疫情
历史上，当警告犯罪率上升时，候选人依赖种族主义的比喻。在1988年总统竞选期间，乔治H.W布什的支持者发布了所谓的威利·霍顿广告，该广告已成为政治中种族诱饵最突出的例子之一。
在今年的选举中，共和党人经常将犯罪归咎于乔治·弗洛伊德(George Floyd)被明尼阿波利斯警方杀害后采取的刑事司法改革，包括对保释法的修改，批评者长期以来一直认为这些修改对有色人种社区产生了不相称的影响，同时指责民主党人没有充分支持执法。
一些共和党候选人试图在有色人种社区中证明自己。例如，泽尔丁在纽约市不同社区的建筑物和酒店发表演讲时，传递了他的反犯罪信息。
在宾夕法尼亚州，共和党参议员候选人、心脏外科医生出身的电视脱口秀主持人穆罕默德·奥兹博士巡视了该州，在黑人社区举办“安全街道”论坛。
当一名记者问及他对犯罪的关注时，Oz提到了他在费城与黑人共和党选区领导人的一次谈话，话题从经济问题转向了苦苦挣扎的黑人企业。
“群体中的非裔美国人说，‘嗯，深层问题是...人们没有安全感，”奥兹在接受采访时说。
来自费城的民主党州议员马尔科姆·肯雅塔(Malcolm Kenyatta)表示，奥兹正在利用犯罪受害者来获得选票，但拒绝采取限制枪支供应等措施来减少枪支暴力。
肯雅塔说:“奥兹没有生活在一个与这种犯罪作斗争的社区，没有人，没有人相信他真的关心并会积极推进有助于解决这一问题的政策解决方案。”
尽管共和党传达了信息，但尚不清楚犯罪是选民的首要任务。
在6月份进行的一项美联社-NORC民意调查中，美国成年人可以说出他们认为政府在未来一年最重要的五个问题，11%的人提到了犯罪或暴力，自去年12月以来没有变化，远低于美国人提到其他许多首要问题的比例。9月份的福克斯新闻频道民意调查要求人们说出一个促使他们今年投票的问题，结果只有1%的人提到了犯罪，尽管大多数人在被直接问到时表示他们非常关心犯罪。
尽管如此，民主党人对共和党人将他们描绘成对犯罪手软的努力做出了回应。
Hochul最近几天宣布支持几个执法工会，并发布了她自己的广告，题为“聚焦于此”，以提醒选民，她加强了该州的枪支法律。
在上周科罗拉多州的一场辩论中，民主党州长贾里德·波利斯(Jared Polis)回应了他的共和党对手海蒂·加纳尔(Heidi Ganahl)，后者多次将他描绘为对犯罪手软，他表示，她的减税计划将通过削减监狱和警察预算来“解除警察的资金”。
加纳尔否认这一点，称自己是一个“法律和秩序的女孩”，并指责波利斯的犯罪率上升。
在俄勒冈州，共和党州长候选人正在将犯罪作为三人竞选的首要问题，一名前民主党州议员的独立候选人可能会从民主党候选人那里获得足够的选票，以帮助共和党在一个蓝色州赢得最高职位。
民主党人Tina Kotek加入了她的对手，承诺增加警察经费，但也支持更严格的枪支法律，作为打击犯罪计划的一部分。
枪支控制组织Everytown for Gun Safety Victory Fund采用了这种方法，该组织在威斯康星州和乔治亚州花费了240万美元的广告，以说服选民，不支持更严格枪支法律的共和党人实际上是对犯罪“软弱”的人。
Everytown的高级政治顾问查理·凯利(Charlie Kelly)说，“我们可以重新设定这种叙事，压制共和党在这个问题上的人为优势。”。
在一些州，候选人对保持相对较低甚至下降的犯罪率提出了警告。
康涅狄格州州长、民主党人内德·拉蒙特(Ned Lamont)在最近的一次竞选连任的辩论中表示，该州的犯罪率“正在下降，尽管你听到了一些恐惧。”
州数据显示，2021年康涅狄格州的暴力犯罪率比2020年下降了9%，拉蒙特在最近与他的共和党挑战者鲍勃·斯特凡诺斯基(Bob Stefanowski)的辩论中指出，他已经将“失控”的犯罪作为他竞选活动的核心内容。
当被问及当数字告诉一个不同的故事时，他如何能继续提出犯罪正在上升的论点时，Stefanowski说，人们害怕犯罪上升，但他否认加剧这些恐惧。
“如果我们不强调这一点，我们就没有做好我们的工作。我可以告诉你当我们在外面的时候，人们很害怕。我不想让他们害怕，”他说。“他们战战兢兢地来找我，问我，‘你打算怎么办?’"
GOP steps up crime message in midterm's final stretch
NEW YORK -- The graphic surveillance video shows a man on a sidewalk suddenly punching someone in the head, knocking them to the ground.
With muted screams and gunshots in the background, the video stitches together other surveillance clips of shootings and punching on streets and subway trains as a voiceover says, “You’re looking at actual violent crimes caught on camera in Kathy Hochul’s New York.”
That’s not exactly true.
The ad from Rep. Lee Zeldin, the Republican challenging New York Gov. Kathy Hochul in next month's election, included video of an assault in California. Some of the footage depicted crimes that took place before Hochul took office last year. While acknowledging a mistake, Zeldin's campaign defended the ad and said the message was clear: violent crime is out of control.
That's a theme GOP candidates across the U.S. are sounding in the final month of the critical midterm elections. The issue of crime is dominating advertising in some of the most competitive Senate races, including those in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Nevada, along with scores of House and governors campaigns such as the one in New York.
The rhetoric is sometimes alarmist or of questionable veracity, closely echoing the language of former President Donald Trump, who honed a late-stage argument during the 2020 campaign that Democratic-led cities were out of control. That didn't help Trump avoid defeat, but experts say Democrats would be wrong to ignore the potency of the attacks.
“When violence is going up, people are concerned, and that’s when we tend to see it gain some traction as a political issue,” said Lisa L. Miller, professor of political science at Rutgers University, who focuses on crime as a political issue in countries across the world.
The FBI released annual data this week that found violent crime rates didn't increase substantially last year, though they remained above pre-pandemic levels. The report presents an incomplete picture, in part because it doesn't include some of the nation's largest police departments.
More broadly, rates of violent crime and killings have increased around the U.S. since the pandemic, in some places spiking after hitting historic lows. Non-violent crime decreased during the pandemic, but the murder rate grew nearly 30% in 2020, rising in cities and rural areas alike, according to an analysis of crime data by The Brennan Center for Justice. The rate of assaults went up 10%, the analysis found.
The rise defies easy explanation. Experts have pointed to a number of potential causes from worries about the economy and historically high inflation rates to intense stress and the pandemic that has killed more than 1 million people in the U.S.
There is a history of candidates relying on racist tropes when warning of rising crime rates. During the 1988 presidential campaign, supporters of George H.W. Bush released the so-called Willie Horton ad that has become one of the most prominent examples of race-baiting in politics.
In this year's elections, Republicans often blame crime on criminal justice reforms adopted after George Floyd’s killing by Minneapolis police, including changes to bail laws that critics had long contended disproportionately impacted communities of color, along with accusations that Democrats have not been sufficiently supportive of law enforcement.
Some GOP candidates are trying to make their case in communities of color. Zeldin, for instance, has delivered his anti-crime message while speaking at buildings and bodegas in diverse New York City neighborhoods.
In Pennsylvania, the Republican nominee for Senate, heart surgeon-turned-TV talk show host Dr. Mehmet Oz, has toured the state holding “safe streets” forums in Black communities.
Asked by a reporter about his focus on crime, Oz pointed to a conversation he had with Black Republican ward leaders in Philadelphia that turned from economic issues to struggling Black-owned businesses.
“The African Americans in the group said, ‘Well, the deep problem is ... people don’t feel safe," Oz said in an interview.
Malcolm Kenyatta, a Democratic state lawmaker from Philadelphia, said Oz is using crime victims to get votes but rejects steps like limiting the availability of firearms that would reduce gun violence.
“Oz does not live in a community that is struggling with this kind of crime and nobody, nobody believes that he actually cares and would actively advance policy solutions that would help deal with this problem,” Kenyatta said.
Despite the GOP messaging, it's not clear that crime is a top priority for voters.
In an AP-NORC poll conducted in June that allowed U.S. adults to name up to five issues they consider most important for the government to be working on in the next year, 11% named crime or violence, unchanged since December and well below the percentage naming many of the other top issues for Americans. A September Fox News poll asking people to name one issue motivating them to vote this year found just 1% named crime, even as most said they were very concerned about crime when asked directly.
Still, Democrats are responding to Republican efforts to portray them as soft on crime.
Hochul in recent days announced the endorsement of several law enforcement unions and released her own ad with a public safety message titled, “Focused on it,” to remind voters that she toughened the state’s gun laws.
During a debate last week in Colorado, Democratic Gov. Jared Polis responded to his Republican opponent Heidi Ganahl, who has repeatedly portrayed him as soft on crime, by suggesting her plan to cut taxes would “defund the police” by cutting prison and police budgets.
Ganahl denied that, calling herself a “law-and-order girl,” and blamed Polis for rising crime rates.
In Oregon, the Republican candidate for governor is making crime a top issue in a three-person race, where an independent candidate who is a former Democratic state lawmaker could take enough votes from the Democratic nominee to help the GOP win the top office in a blue state.
Democrat Tina Kotek has joined her opponents in pledging to increase police funding but has also backed tougher gun laws as part of a plan to tackle crime.
That approach is one embraced by gun control group Everytown for Gun Safety Victory Fund, which is spending $2.4 million combined on ads in Wisconsin and Georgia to convince voters that Republicans who don’t support tougher gun laws are actually the ones “soft” on crime.
“We can reset this narrative and neutralize the GOP’s, what I would call, artificial advantage on the issue,” said Charlie Kelly, a senior political advisor to Everytown.
In some states, candidates are raising alarm about crime rates that remain relatively low or have even fallen.
Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont, a Democrat, said in a recent debate as he runs for reelection that the state’s crime is “going down despite some of the fearmongering you hear.”
State data shows violent crime rates in Connecticut dropped 9% in 2021 from 2020, which Lamont pointed out in a recent debate with his Republican challenger, Bob Stefanowski, who has made “out of control” crime a central plank of his campaign.
When asked how he can keep making the argument that crime is on the rise when the numbers tell a different story, Stefanowski said people are afraid of rising crime, but he denied stoking those fears.
“If we weren’t highlighting this, we wouldn’t be doing our job. I can tell you when we’re out there, people are afraid. I’m not trying to make them afraid,” he said. “They’re coming to me afraid and saying, ‘What are you going to do about it?’”
