周一早上，一波神风无人机袭击了基辅和其他乌克兰城市，造成至少四人死亡，数人受伤，此前一架无人机炸毁了首都的一栋住宅楼，其他无人机袭击了全国各地的热电站。
这些袭击似乎是自战争开始以来俄罗斯对平民目标发动的最大规模的无人机袭击。乌克兰空军表示，俄罗斯发射了43架无人机，乌克兰成功击落了除6架之外的所有无人机。
此次袭击突显出，俄罗斯正越来越多地利用伊朗制造和供应的无人攻击机来支持其在乌克兰失败的战争努力。据西方和乌克兰官员称，俄罗斯已向伊朗政府订购了数百架军用无人机，以填补本国无人机武器库的缺口，同时也缺少远程导弹。
乌克兰政府表示，袭击中使用的无人机主要是伊朗的Shahed-136，这是一种大型的所谓游荡弹药，俄罗斯正在使用这种弹药，就像缓慢的小型巡航导弹一样。
伊朗政府否认向俄罗斯提供无人机用于乌克兰，但自9月以来，无人机的部署已经被广泛记录。乌克兰军队定期发布他们残骸的图像，无人机独特的机翼形状使他们很容易辨认。
据防务分析人士称，这种11英尺长、螺旋桨驱动的无人机相对简单，但仍然构成严重威胁，尤其是如果俄罗斯大量接收它们的话。
俄罗斯无人驾驶航空系统专家塞缪尔·本德特(Samuel Bendett)告诉美国广播公司新闻(ABC News)，Shahed-136依赖于一个小型民用发动机和商用GPS系统，因此容易受到干扰，相对容易被击落。他说，俄罗斯军队给这些无人机起了个绰号叫“机动脚踏车”,因为它们的声音很大。
Firefighters works on a destroyed building after a drone attack, Oct. 17, 2022, in Kyiv, Ukraine.
yasu yoshi Chiba/法新社
虽然比俄罗斯先进的巡航导弹慢得多，但它们仍然能够飞行数百英里，能够到达乌克兰的几乎任何地方。缓慢和低空飞行，他们也很难被一些防空部队发现和拦截。它们50公斤的有效载荷也相对有限，但正如周一的袭击所显示的那样，这些导弹有时仍会造成重大破坏。
专家表示，无人机最大的优势是，与常规导弹相比，它们更便宜。
“使用这些Shaheds的全部目的是将它们发送出去。给乌克兰的防空力量施压，让他们消耗弹药，让人们紧张不安，”本德特说。“并不是所有人都通过了，而是只有一部分人通过了。”
一些专家表示，俄罗斯似乎在利用伊朗无人机维持一场空中恐怖活动，旨在削弱乌克兰人的战斗意志。特别是，俄罗斯瞄准了乌克兰的能源基础设施，希望在冬季来临之际破坏它。乌克兰总理表示，周一的袭击再次袭击了关键的能源设施，切断了数百个定居点的电网。
据乌克兰和西方官员称，伊朗无人机的供应量很大，因为俄罗斯越来越没有足够的导弹来维持针对平民目标的日常行动。大多数独立专家认为，俄罗斯无法生产足够多的数量来补充库存。但伊朗的无人机可能会让俄罗斯填补这一空白，让它继续其恐怖活动，并削弱乌克兰的基础设施。
乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽伦斯基(Volodymyr Zelenskyy)上周表示，俄罗斯正寻求从伊朗获得2400架无人机。
《华盛顿邮报》报道上周末，伊朗已同意增加对俄罗斯的无人攻击机供应，援引官员的话说。
伊朗对莫斯科的武器供应也加剧了与以色列的紧张关系。《华盛顿邮报》报道后，以色列侨民事务部长纳克曼·沙伊公开表示，以色列应该开始向乌克兰提供军事援助。
迄今为止，以色列一直拒绝乌克兰提出的提供其引以为豪的“铁穹”反导弹防御系统的要求，以色列政府周一也没有证实将向乌克兰输送武器。
但俄罗斯对这种可能性反应激烈，前总统德米特里·梅德韦杰夫周一警告说，这将“破坏俄罗斯和以色列之间的所有国家关系”。
泽伦斯基的高级顾问Mykhailo Podolyak指责伊朗对周一的袭击负责，他在推特上写道，伊朗“对谋杀乌克兰人负责”
大多数专家表示，他们不相信伊朗无人机能够从根本上改变战争的军事方向，但它们可能每天都会给平民带来死亡和破坏。
或许无人机目前构成的最大威胁是乌克兰的能源基础设施。
“即使是一枚50公斤重的弹头以非常高的速度飞来，击中一座发电站，也会造成非常严重的破坏。所以我一点也不会轻视这一点，”本德特说。
但他补充说，即使是这样的打击似乎也不太可能打破乌克兰人战斗的决心。
“代价可能是巨大的，但这可能不会改变乌克兰的决心，”本德特说。
What to know about the Iranian kamikaze drones Russia is using to attack Ukraine
A wave of kamikaze drones struck Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities on Monday morning, killing at least four and wounding several others, after one blew apart a residential building in the capital and other drones targeted thermal power stations across the country.
The attacks appeared to be the largest drone assault unleashed by Russia on civilian targets since the start of the war. Russia launched 43 drones and Ukraine successfully shot down all but six, Ukraine’s Air Force said.
The attack highlighted how Russia is increasingly turning to using attack drones built and supplied by Iran to bolster its failing war effort in Ukraine. Russia has ordered hundreds of military drones from Iran’s government, according to western and Ukrainian officials, as it seeks to fill gaps in its own drone arsenal and as it runs short of long-range missiles.
Ukraine’s government said the drones used in the attacks were mostly Iran’s Shahed-136s, large so-called loitering munitions, which Russia is employing like slow, small cruise missiles.
Iran’s government has denied it is supplying drones to Russia to use in Ukraine but their deployment has already been widely documented since September. Ukrainian troops regularly post images of their wreckage and the drones' distinctive wing shape makes them easily identifiable.
The 11-foot-long, propeller-powered drones are relatively unsophisticated, according to defense analysts, but still pose a serious threat, particularly if Russia receives them in large numbers.
The Shahed-136 relies on a small civilian motor and commercially available GPS systems, making it vulnerable to jamming and relatively easy to bring down, Samuel Bendett, an expert on Russian unmanned aerial systems, told ABC News. Russian troops have taken to nicknaming these drones “mopeds” because of their loud whine, he said.
While vastly slower than Russia’s advanced cruise missiles, they are still able to fly hundreds of miles, capable of reaching almost anywhere in Ukraine. Slow and low-flying, they can also be difficult for some air defenses to detect and intercept. Their 50 kilogram payload is also relatively limited, but as Monday’s attacks show, the missiles can still sometimes cause significant damage.
The drones’ greatest advantage, experts said, is that they are cheap compared to conventional missiles.
“The whole point of using these Shaheds is to send them in waves. To stress Ukrainian air defenses, to have them expend ammunition, to keep people on edge,” Bendett said. “It’s not about all of them making it through, it’s about just some of them making it through.”
Russia appears to be using the Iranian drones to maintain a campaign of aerial terror aimed at sapping Ukrainians’ will to fight, some experts said. In particular, Russia is targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, hoping to damage it as winter closes in. Monday’s attack again struck critical energy facilities, cutting hundreds of settlements off from the electricity grid, Ukraine’s prime minister said.
The supply of Iranian drones is significant because Russia increasingly has insufficient missiles to keep up a daily campaign against civilian targets, according to Ukrainian and western officials. Most independent experts agree that Russia is unable to manufacture large enough numbers to replenish its stocks. But Iran’s drones may allow Russia to fill that gap, letting it continue its terror campaign and to degrade Ukrainian infrastructure.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy last week said Russia is seeking to acquire 2,400 drones from Iran.
The Washington Post reportedover the weekend that Iran has agreed to increase its supply of attack drones to Russia, citing officials.
Iran’s weapons supplies to Moscow are also fueling tensions with Israel. Following The Washington Post report, Israel’s Diaspora Affairs Minister Nachman Shai publicly said it should start sending military aid to Ukraine.
Israel has so far resisted calls from Ukraine to provide its vaunted "Iron Dome" anti-missile defense system and Israel’s government on Monday did not confirm it would send weapons.
But Russia reacted furiously to the possibility, with former President Dmitry Medvedev on Monday warning that it would “destroy all interstate relations” between Russia and Israel.
A senior adviser to Zelenskyy, Mykhailo Podolyak, blamed Iran for Monday’s attacks, writing on Twitter it was “responsible for the murders of Ukrainians.”
Most experts said they did not believe the Iranian drones would be capable of fundamentally altering the military direction of the war, but that they could inflict daily death and destruction on civilians.
Perhaps the biggest threat the drones pose currently is to Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
"Even if it’s a 50 kilogram warhead flying in at a very high speed and it hits an electric power station, it can cause very significant damage. So I wouldn’t downplay that at all," said Bendett.
But even such strikes seemed unlikely to break Ukrainian's determination to fight, he added.
"The cost could be substantial but it’s probably not going to change Ukrainian resolve,” Bendett said.
