据美国中文网6日报道，随着“超级星期二”结束，美国2020总统大选民主党初选已基本演化成前副总统拜登和佛蒙特州参议员桑德斯间的“两强”对决。他们面临的首个挑战，是当地时间3月10日的6个州初选。而其中的重中之重，将是密歇根州。
据报道，在这6个州中，密歇根将决出125张党代表票；其他各州的党代表票数则都不足100张。在那里，桑德斯将试图证明他才是最能吸引工薪阶层投票的；而拜登则寻求巩固他在“超级星期二”中建立起的优势。
资料图：当地时间2月2日，美国民主党总统竞选人、前副总统拜登在艾奥瓦首府得梅因竞选造势。
中新社记者 陈孟统 摄
在密歇根的冲刺阶段，拜登派出了早前退选、支持自己的克罗布彻前往，代自己竞选；桑德斯则取消了同样是在3月10日举行初选的密西西比一场集会，而在密歇根州增加了一场集会。
最近的民调显示，拜登在密歇根州暂时占优；他还得到了当地政客，如州长怀特莫尔等的支持，以及底特律当地主要媒体的背书。
密歇根州立大学专家格罗斯曼指出，密歇根的初选某种意义上可看作全国选举的缩影，该州的政治趋势和全国的政治趋势高度一致。“目前外界预期拜登会在‘超级星期二’之后继续反弹，现在的形势对他有利。但离密歇根初选还有一些时间，仍有一些因素可能影响结果”。
2016年，桑德斯在密歇根州击败了当时的民主党总统竞选对手希拉里，现在他希望重拾这一胜利。桑德斯本周起在密歇根州增加演讲、投放大量广告，攻击拜登在北美自贸协议、破产法案等议题上的立场；他希望借这些议题降低拜登在工薪选民中的支持度。
但从人口构成来看，密歇根和接下来将举行初选的几个州对拜登有利。在两人争夺蓝领工人之际，拜登仍然保持在非裔选民中的明显优势，这一族群在底特律占多数，在密歇根州占20%。另外，拜登在白人郊区选民、老年选民中也占据优势。
另一方面，桑德斯虽然在年轻的西裔中支持率看涨，但这一族群占据密歇根州人口的比例太小，几乎可以忽略。
格罗斯曼指出，桑德斯失去了一些白人工薪阶层和郊区选民的支持，同时在西裔中的支持率上升。这在超级星期二时还能构成此消彼长的均势，但在密歇根，这会让他很受伤。
在普选中，密歇根同样至关重要，该州和威斯康星、宾州在2016年大选中都被现任美国总统特朗普赢下，但特朗普的优势都不到1个百分点；这三个州是民主党在2020大选中致力于“翻蓝”的州。
Focus on the Democratic primary: Biden Sanders is the key to this state
With the end of Super Tuesday, the Democratic primary election in the 2020 presidential election has basically evolved into a "two strong" duel between former Vice President Biden and Senator Sanders of Vermont, Chinanet reported Tuesday. Their first challenge was the six state primaries on March 10 local time. And the top priority will be Michigan.
Among the six states, Michigan is reported to have 125 party delegates, while the rest will have fewer than 100. There, Sanders will try to prove that he is the one who will most appeal to the working class to vote, while Biden will seek to consolidate the advantage he built in Super Tuesday.
In Michigan's sprint, Biden sent his pro klobucher, who left early, to run for him; Sanders canceled a rally in Mississippi, which also held the primary on March 10, and added a rally in Michigan.
Recent polls show Biden temporarily dominating Michigan; he has the backing of local politicians, such as governor white Moore, and endorsement from Detroit's main local media.
Grosman, an expert at Michigan State University, pointed out that the primary election in Michigan can be regarded as a microcosm of the national election in a sense, and the political trend of the state is highly consistent with the national political trend. "At present, Biden is expected to continue to rebound after Super Tuesday, and the current situation is in his favor. But there is still some time to go before the Michigan primary, and there are still some factors that may affect the results. ".
In 2016, Sanders defeated Democratic presidential rival Hillary Clinton in Michigan, and now he hopes to regain that victory. This week, Sanders added speeches and advertisements in Michigan to attack Biden's position on issues such as the North American Free Trade Agreement and bankruptcy bill, which he hopes to reduce Biden's support among working voters.
But in terms of population composition, Michigan and the states that will hold the primary next are good for Biden. As the two compete for blue collar workers, Biden continues to maintain a clear edge among African voters, a majority in Detroit and 20% in Michigan. In addition, Biden also has an advantage among white suburban voters and elderly voters.
Sanders, on the other hand, has a strong support among young Hispanics, but the proportion of this group in Michigan's population is too small to be ignored.
Grossman pointed out that Sanders lost the support of some white working class and suburban voters, while the support rate among Hispanics increased. It's a balance of the two on Super Tuesday, but in Michigan it's going to hurt him.
In the general election, Michigan is also crucial. In 2016, the state, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania were won by trump, the current president of the United States, but Trump's advantage is less than 1 percentage point. These three states are the states that the Democratic Party is committed to "turning blue" in the 2020 election.
