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中国到2035年将拥有1500枚核弹头

2022-11-30 10:24  -ABC   - 

中国根据五角大楼最新的年度报告,中国继续快速增加核弹头储备报告据中国军方估计,到2035年,中国可能拥有多达1500枚核弹头。

美国还对一名高级国防官员所称的中国在众议院议长南希·佩洛西(Nancy Pelosi)访问台湾后在台湾岛周围加强军事活动的“新常态”感到担忧台湾八月。

正式名称为“涉及中华人民共和国的军事和安全发展”,国会授权的年度报告重申了国防战略的评估,即中国“对美国构成了最重大和最系统的挑战”国家安全和自由开放的国际体系。"

“根据报告中的趋势线,我认为我们可以判断,中华人民共和国(中华人民共和国)越来越多地将解放军(人民解放军)作为一种关键的治国工具,它想用它来追求自己的利益,”一名高级国防官员对记者谈到这份报告。“这对美国的安全利益、我们的盟友和伙伴的利益以及更广泛的基于规则的国际秩序有着严重的影响。"

去年五角大楼的报告强调,中国已经开始将其核武库增加四倍,并预计到2027年将拥有700枚核弹头,到2030年可能达到1000枚。

PHOTO: Then Vice President Joe Biden speaks to Chinese President Xi Jingping during a meeting of governors in Los Angeles, Feb. 17, 2012.

Then Vice President Joe Biden speaks to Chinese President Xi Jingping during a meeting of governors in Los Angeles, Feb. 17, 2012.

弗雷德里克·j·布朗/法新社

周二发布的新报告称,中国目前拥有400多枚核弹头,并继续加速扩充核武库,预计到2035年中国可能拥有1500枚核弹头。即使中国的核武器数量大幅增加,其更大的核武库仍将远低于美国宣布的3750枚核弹头的库存,这些核弹头可由数百枚陆基和海基导弹以及一个战略轰炸机舰队部署。

中国已公开将2027年定为其军队拥有解放军能力的目标日期,以成为“共产党(CCP)在追求台湾统一时更可信的军事工具”

2035年是解放军完成现代化的目标,2049年是中国军队成为全球力量的目标。

本月早些时候,参谋长联席会议主席马克·米利将军强调,无论中国公开宣布的目标是什么,美国都不会在军事上落后于中国。

米利在五角大楼新闻发布会上说:“中国不会成为比美国军队更好的军队,但他们会努力,但他们不会到达那里。”“美国军队现在是第一,五年后我们也将是第一——2027年不会是中国成为第一的日子。我们会一直保持第一。只要我们保持第一,我们就能阻止人们担心的战争,即中美之间的大国战争。”

该报告还指出,中国在过去两年中加强了在台湾周围的军事活动,因为它“增加了在台湾海峡及其周围的挑衅和破坏稳定的行动,包括增加进入台湾自行宣布的防空识别区(ADIZ)的航班,并进行夺岛演习。”

这些活动在8月份达到顶峰,当时中国还在佩洛西访问该岛期间进行了导弹发射和海军行动,中国认为该岛是一个分离的省份。

据这位高级国防官员称,虽然台湾周围的军事活动强度有所下降,但仍高于似乎已成为“新常态”之前的水平。

“这让我们感到担忧,尽管我们没有看到迫在眉睫的入侵,但显然,台湾周围的恐吓和胁迫活动有所升级,”这名官员说。

“我们看到解放军做的事情,如增加穿越中线的次数,以及似乎意在恐吓或磨损台湾的行为,”这位官员说。“这显然不是我们想要看到的。”

周二发布这份报告的两周前,美国总统乔拜登(Joe Biden)在印尼会见了中国习近平主席,一周前,美国国防部长劳埃德奥斯汀(Lloyd Austin)在柬埔寨会见了中国最高军事官员魏凤和。

根据五角大楼的一份会议记录,在与魏的会晤中,奥斯汀据说“对解放军飞机在印度-太平洋地区表现出的日益危险的行为表示关切”。

这位高级国防官员表示,中国军舰和飞机“在印度-太平洋地区表现出越来越多的不安全和不专业的行为”,并强调特技飞行和箔条的排放“可能会使附近的飞机安全机动变得危险”

China to have 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035: Pentagon

Chinacontinues to rapidly build its stockpile of nuclear warheads, according to the Pentagon's latest annualreporton China's military that now estimates China could have as many as 1,500 warheads by 2035.

The U.S. is also concerned by what a senior defense official described as China's establishment of "a new normal" of heightened military activity around the island following House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit toTaiwanin August.

Formally known as the "Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China," the congressionally mandated annual report reaffirms the National Defense Strategy's assessment that China "presents the most consequential and systemic challenge to U.S.national securityand the free and open international system."

"Based on the trend lines in the report, I think we can judge that the PRC (People's Republic of China) has increasingly turned to the PLA (People's Liberation Army) as kind of one of the key instruments of statecraft that it wants to use to pursue its interests," a senior defense official told reporters about the report. "And that has serious implications for U.S. security interests, our allies and partners' interests, and for the international rules-based order more broadly. "

Last year's Pentagon report highlighted that China had set in motion a four-fold increase of its nuclear weapons arsenal and projected that it could have 700 warheads by 2027 and possibly 1,000 by 2030.

The new report released on Tuesday describes China as now having more than 400 nuclear warheads and continuing with the accelerated build-up of its arsenal, projecting that it could have 1,500 warheads by 2035. Even with China's dramatic increase, it's larger nuclear arsenal will still be much less than the United States' declared stockpile of 3,750 warheads capable of being deployed by hundreds of land-based and sea-launched missiles and a strategic bomber fleet.

China has publicly set 2027 as a target date for its military to have the capabilities for the People's Liberation Army to be "a more credible military tool for the Communist Party (CCP) to wield as it pursues Taiwan unification."

The year 2035 is targeted for the completion of the PLA's modernization and 2049 as the year that China's military becomes a global force.

Earlier this month, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley stressed that, regardless of China's publicly stated goal, the United States will not fall behind China militarily.

"China is not going to be a better military than the United States military is, but they're going to try but they're not going to get there," Milley said at a Pentagon news conference. "The United States military is number one now, and we are going to be number one five years from now -- 2027 is not going to be the date that China becomes number one. And we're going to stay number one the entire time. And as long as we remain number one, then we will deter the war that people worry about, a great power war between China and the United States."

The report also noted China's heightened military activity around Taiwan over the last two years as it "increased provocative and destabilizing actions in and around the Taiwan Strait, to include increased flights into Taiwan's self-declared Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) and conducting island seizure exercises."

Those activities peaked in August when China also conducted missile launches and naval operations during Pelosi's visit to the island that China considers to be a breakaway province.

While the military activity around Taiwan has lessened in intensity, it remains higher than it had been before it appears that it has become "a new normal," according to the senior defense official.

"That gives us a concern, even though we don't see an imminent invasion, obviously, about sort of an elevated level of intimidating and coercive activity around Taiwan," said the official.

"We see the PLA doing things like the increased crossings over the center line, and behavior that appears to be intended to kind of intimidate or sort of wear down Taiwan," said the official. "Which, obviously, is just not what we want to see."

The report released Tuesday comes two weeks after President Joe Biden met with China's President Xi Jinping in Indonesia a week after Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met with Gen. Wei Fenghe, China's top military official, in Cambodia.

In his meeting with Wei, Austin was said to have "raised concerns about the increasingly dangerous behavior demonstrated by PLA aircraft in the Indo-Pacific region," according to a Pentagon readout of the meeting.

The senior defense official said that Chinese military ships and aircraft "have exhibited an increase in unsafe and unprofessional behavior in the Indo-Pacific region" and highlighted aerobatic maneuvers and the discharge of chaff "that could make it dangerous for nearby aircraft to maneuver safely."

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