华盛顿-在去年的中期选举中，众议员劳伦·波伯特对科罗拉多州第三国会选区的控制似乎没有问题。但最终，这位因“让美国再次伟大”运动中的好斗成员而赢得全国声誉的女议员仅以564票的优势再次当选。
“按照这个选区的设计方式，这本来应该是共和党候选人的一大优势，”前州参议员唐·科勒姆(Don Coram)说，他在去年6月的共和党初选中未能成功挑战伯特。
Boebert的险些失败象征着共和党在2022年面临的困难，并可能在2024年再次面临。前总统唐纳德·特朗普牢牢掌握着大部分共和党基础，有明显的少数共和党选民不认为自己是MAGA成员。
美联社VoteCast显示，作为忠实的共和党人，他们中的大多数人支持2022年的共和党候选人。然而，广泛的全国调查发现，这些共和党人在众议院选举中选择不支持候选人的人中占了更大的比例。他们中的一小部分人第二次表示反对特朗普，支持民主党人乔·拜登(Joe Biden)在2020年竞选总统，并在2022年支持民主党众议院候选人。
在竞争激烈的政治环境下选举美国被国有化，并由微弱优势决定，任何政党都不能把这些选民视为理所当然。
民主党人亚当·弗里希说，他知道对于一个更保守的民主党人来说，有一个“相当独特的”机会来联系不喜欢Boebert咄咄逼人的政治风格的科罗拉多州选民。
“我花了大部分时间试图让人们相信我是一个足够安全的选择，而不仅仅是让选票空白...但实际上，有史以来第一次或在很长一段时间内投票给非共和党人，”弗里希说，他已经宣布将在2024年再次竞选。
调查结果表明，民主党人可能也需要警惕针对“MAGA共和党人”的信息，拜登在11月选举前多次抨击这些人，并准备在2024年的竞选中再次这样做。大多数不认同这一运动的人似乎并不觉得这很有说服力。这样做的选民可能渴望回到代表他们传统保守价值观的共和党候选人身边。
共和党策略师亚历克斯·科南特表示，只要特朗普参与政治，共和党候选人就不能指望这些选民。但是2024年可以不一样。
“2024年的共和党提名人没有理由不能建立一个包括特朗普的基础和温和的共和党人和无党派人士的联盟，”他说。
柯南特和其他人举出了一些共和党州长的例子——佛罗里达州的罗恩·德桑蒂斯、俄亥俄州的迈克·德文和佐治亚州的布莱恩·坎普——他们在2022年能够做到这一点。
例如，在俄亥俄州和乔治亚州，两位州长的表现超过了特朗普支持的共和党参议员候选人。DeWine比赢得一个开放席位的JD Vance多获得近39万张选票，Kemp在大选中比Herschel Walker多获得20多万张选票，Herschel Walker在后来的决胜选举中未能击败民主党在任者。
根据VoteCast的数据，10%不认为自己是“共和党人”的共和党选民在全国范围内投票支持民主党众议院候选人，而认为自己是“共和党人”的人只有2%。
总体而言，4%的共和党人支持民主党候选人。在参议院和州长的竞争中，这一比例上升，极右翼候选人参加了投票，包括亚利桑那州多达13%的共和党人，科罗拉多州16%的共和党人，宾夕法尼亚州18%的共和党人，以及密歇根州11%的共和党人。
坚决反对特朗普的保守团体林肯计划(Lincoln Project)在选举中瞄准了这个投票集团。联合创始人里克·威尔逊(Rick Wilson)表示，对于选举亲民主、反极端主义的候选人来说，这是一条“狭窄但有意义的道路”，他认为自2020年以来，由于最高法院决定推翻罗伊诉韦德案，这条道路已经扩大。
不过，威尔逊说，党派之争可能会“很棘手”，传统的共和党人重视华盛顿的制衡，这促使心怀不满的保守派选民支持共和党，以抵消民主党的影响。
VoteCast显示，大多数共和党人投票给共和党人，即使他们有所保留。
不认同MAGA运动并决定支持共和党候选人的共和党人大多表示，他们在投票时没有考虑特朗普，不管他是好是坏。只有大约一半的人对特朗普本人的评价是积极的，但大多数人对该党持积极态度，并表示共和党倾向于做正确的事情。大约三分之二的人说，他们投票是为了表示反对拜登。
“他们在我在的地方...我们还有什么选择呢?”共和党策略师里克·泰勒说。“共和党中有许多人不愿意投票给共和党，但他们不能投票给民主党，因为他们不相信民主党人会把国家带向何方。”
这可能有助于亲共和党地区的一些共和党候选人驱逐特朗普时代当选的民主党人。
11月，当时的州参议员Jen Kiggans在弗吉尼亚州弗吉尼亚海滩中心的一个选区击败了连任两届的民主党众议员Elaine Luria，两年前，一名民主党总统候选人自1964年以来首次赢得了该市。基根斯在共和党初选中击败了自称的“MAGA候选人”,竞选活动人员指出基根斯是一名“训练有素”的候选人，专注于餐桌问题。
她的信息还将卢里亚与拜登和当时的众议院议长南希·佩洛西(Nancy Pelosi，D-California)联系在一起，因为卢里亚本人在众议院委员会调查2021年1月6日美国国会大厦起义的过程中发挥了作用，并称基甘斯是选举否认者。基甘斯回避明确重复特朗普关于2020年总统选举被盗的虚假说法，但她拒绝公开拒绝这些说法。
非MAGA共和党人比MAGA共和党人更有可能说拜登是合法当选的总统。与一直知道相比，他们也更有可能说他们在竞选过程中就决定了他们会支持哪个候选人。
回到科罗拉多州，58岁的卡伦·戴维斯(Karen Davis)一生都是共和党人，直到几年前，由于该党(尤其是极右翼)的“令人担忧”的言论，她改变了自己的选民登记。她说，她在2020年投票给拜登，更多的是投票“反对”特朗普。
去年，她支持弗里希而不是伯特。
“真正令人难过的是，你对这些候选人都不感兴趣，”戴维斯说，她和丈夫在科罗拉多州的大章克申经营一家地板公司。“如果共和党能找到一个让我感到兴奋的候选人，我绝对会投他们的票。”
戴维斯说，对她来说，那是“一个在财政上保守，但在其他方面温和的人”。“他们无法用唐纳德·特朗普赢回我。”
Anti-Trump GOP voters mostly loyal in 2022, but not entirely
WASHINGTON --Rep. Lauren Boebert's grip on Colorado's 3rd Congressional District didn't seem in question heading into last year's midterms. But in the end, the congresswoman who gained a national reputation as a combative member of the “Make America Great Again” movement won reelection by just 564 votes.
“This was supposed to be a slam dunk for the Republican candidate, the way the district is designed," said Don Coram, a former state senator who unsuccessfully challenged Boebert in the GOP primary last June.
Boebert's near miss was emblematic of the difficulties Republicans confronted in 2022 and may face again in 2024. While former PresidentDonald Trumpholds a tight grasp on much of the GOP base, there is a notable minority of Republican voters who do not consider themselves MAGA members.
Most of them, as faithful Republicans, backed GOP candidates in 2022, AP VoteCast shows. Still, the extensive national survey finds these Republicans made up a larger percentage of those who opted not to support a candidate in House races. A sliver of them showed their opposition to Trump for a second time, backing Democrat Joe Biden for president in 2020 and Democratic House candidates in 2022.
In a political climate where competitiveelections are nationalized and decided by narrow margins, neither party can take these voters for granted.
Democrat Adam Frisch said he knew there was a “fairly unique” opening for a more conservative Democrat to connect with Colorado voters who did not like Boebert’s aggressive political style.
“I spent most of my time trying to convince people I was a safe enough choice, not just to leave the ballot blank ... but actually vote for a non-Republican for the first time ever or in a really long time,” said Frisch, who has already announced he will run again in 2024.
The findings suggest Democrats, too, may need to be wary of the messaging against “MAGA Republicans,” whom Biden hammered repeatedly before the November elections and is poised to do again in a 2024 campaign. Most of those who don't identify with the movement don’t seem to find that compelling. Voters who do may be eager to revert to a Republican candidate who represents their traditional conservative values.
Republican strategist Alex Conant suggested GOP candidates cannot count on these voters so long as Trump is involved in politics. But 2024 can be different.
“There’s no reason that the Republican nominee in 2024 can’t put together a coalition that includes Trump’s base and moderate Republicans and independents,” he said.
Conant and others pointed to examples of Republican governors — Ron DeSantis in Florida, Mike DeWine in Ohio and Brian Kemp in Georgia — who were able to do that in 2022.
In Ohio and Georgia, for example, the two governors outperformed Republican candidates for Senate who were endorsed by Trump. DeWine earned nearly 390,000 votes more than JD Vance, who won an open seat, and Kemp received 200,000-plus more votes in the general election than did Herschel Walker, who failed to unseat a Democratic incumbent in a later runoff.
According to VoteCast, 10% of Republican voters who don’t identify as “MAGA Republicans” voted for Democratic House candidates nationwide, compared with 2% of those who embrace that label.
Overall, 4% of Republicans backed Democratic candidates. That percentage swelled in competitive races for Senate and governor where far-right candidates were on the ballot, including as many as 13% of Republicans in Arizona, 16% in Colorado and 18% in Pennsylvania, and 11% in Michigan.
The Lincoln Project, a conservative group that staunchly opposes Trump, has targeted this voting bloc in elections. Co-founder Rick Wilson said it’s a “narrow pathway, but a meaningful one” to electing pro-democracy, anti-extremist candidates, one that he thinks has expanded since 2020 because of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.
Still, partisanship can be “sticky,” Wilson said, and traditional Republicans value checks and balances in Washington, driving disaffected conservative voters to support Republicans as an offset to Democrats.
VoteCast shows most Republicans voted for Republicans, even if they did so with reservations.
Republicans who don’t identify with the MAGA movement and decided to back Republican candidates mostly say they didn’t consider Trump, good or bad, when they voted. Only about half are positive in ratings of Trump himself, but most are favorable toward the party and say the GOP tends to try to do what’s right. About two-thirds of them say they voted to show opposition to Biden.
“They’re where I am ... what choice do we have?” said GOP strategist Rick Tyler. “There are many in the Republican Party who would love to not vote Republican, but they can’t vote Democrat because they don’t believe in where Democrats want to take the country.”
That may have helped some Republican candidates in Republican-leaning districts oust Democrats who were elected in the Trump era.
In November, then-state Sen. Jen Kiggans defeated two-term Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria in a district centered in Virginia Beach, Virginia, just two years after a Democratic presidential candidate carried the city for the first time since 1964. Kiggans overcame the self-proclaimed “MAGA candidate” in the Republican primary, and campaign operatives pointed to Kiggans as a “disciplined” candidate focused on kitchen table issues.
Her message also tied Luria to Biden and then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., as Luria herself campaigned on her role on the House committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection at the U.S. Capitol and called Kiggans an election denier. Kiggans shied away from explicitly repeating Trump's false claims that the 2020 presidential election was stolen, but she refused to publicly reject them.
Non-MAGA Republicans are more likely than MAGA Republicans to say that Biden was legitimately elected president. They also are more likely to say they decided over the course of the campaign which candidate they would back, as compared with knowing all along.
Back in Colorado, Karen Davis, 58, was a lifelong Republican until a few years ago, when she changed her voter registration because of the “alarming” rhetoric of the party, particularly the far-right. Her vote for Biden in 2020 was more of a vote “against” Trump, she said.
And last year, she backed Frisch over Boebert.
“What’s really sad is you’re not excited about any of these candidates,” said Davis, who runs a flooring business in Grand Junction, Colorado, with her husband. “If the Republicans could get a candidate I was excited about, I would absolutely vote for them.”
To her, that’s “somebody who’s a fiscal conservative but a moderate in every other way,” Davis said. “They can’t win me back with Donald Trump.”
