总统乔·拜登在FiveThirtyEight的新闻中遥遥领先民主党总统初选平均投票率当他爬上去的时候他的连任竞选.
截至周四，新的平均支持率显示拜登在全国范围内获得65.5%的支持，而有争议的环境倡导者和律师小罗伯特·F·肯尼迪以14.2%的支持率远远落后，尽管媒体广泛关注和超过600万美元的捐款目前为止。
玛丽安娜·威廉森是畅销书作家和演说家，他的竞选活动由资金紧张的战略家走马灯似的运作，财务文件显示，因为她不符合FiveThirtyEight作为主要候选人的标准，所以不包括在平均值中。
新平均值中包括的一些民意调查显示，威廉姆森的支持率仅为个位数。
这一平均值凸显了肯尼迪在民主党选民中面临的挑战，尽管他自称是美国最著名的政治王朝之一的成员。他对白宫的争夺也使他在公共卫生问题上传播阴谋论和错误信息的历史成为新的焦点。
肯尼迪的竞选团队没有回应对此事的置评请求，他为自己的胜算进行了辩护。“我面对的是一股非常非常强大的力量——民主党，”他本周早些时候表示。“但我也认为我有很多通往胜利的道路。”
威廉姆森的竞选团队也没有对请求做出回应，她同样认为她的机会不会那么容易被放弃。
“美国政治非常非常不可预测，”她此前告诉美国广播公司新闻(ABC News)，称自己缺乏政治专业知识是一种优势:“问题不是我们在华盛顿没有良好的政治汽车修理工，”她当时说。“问题是我们走错了路。这就是我所知道的。”
拜登拥有自己的重要优势，包括白宫的服饰，民主党全国委员会(DNC)的全力支持，以及没有民主党主流的主要竞争对手，一位熟悉拜登竞选活动的消息人士告诉ABC新闻，竞选官员或DNC“毫无疑问”拜登将成为民主党的提名人。
2023年7月25日，小罗伯特·F·肯尼迪在纽约市玻璃屋的纽约伦理文化协会举行的世界价值观网络总统候选人系列活动中发表演讲。
迈克尔·圣地亚哥/盖蒂图片社
“拜登总统和副总统[卡玛拉]哈里斯正在为美国人民创造现代历史上最好的立法记录，他们做到了受到民主党内空前团结的鼓舞支持他们的竞选，”拜登竞选团队的高级沟通顾问TJ·达克洛自豪地说。
“2020年，他们组建了一个广泛而多样的联盟，结果获得了美国历史上最多的总统候选人票数。而且，在经历了自罗斯福以来在任总统的最佳中期选举后，他们将在2024年再次这样做，并战胜寻求剥夺每个州美国人基本自由的MAGA极端主义议程，”Ducklo说。
拜登的主要优势是在任，这有助于他直接与民主党全国委员会合作，并在很大程度上清除主流初选对手。
民主党全国委员会是他背后的政党支持的一个标志预计不会举行任何初选辩论惹恼了一些活动人士，但很少引起党员的抱怨。
这种紧密合作并非拜登乃至民主党所独有:共和党全国委员会在2020年没有举行初选辩论，许多州取消了提名竞争，为时任总统唐纳德·特朗普铺平了道路。
最重要的是，盟友指出，拜登有能力使用空军一号在竞选活动中穿梭，他可以从白宫推出政策，包括两党基础设施法案和微芯片制造资金。
“拜登和哈里斯有着强劲的记录和核心价值观，不仅强劲，而且鉴于对比，看到如此可观的领先并不奇怪，”前民主党全国委员会官员、接近白宫的民主党策略师卡伦·芬尼说。
观察人士说，与此同时，拜登在某种程度上受到民主党领袖身份的制约，而肯尼迪和威廉姆森则没有。
后两者在爱荷华州党团会议和新罕布什尔州初选中更自由，因为民主党更大的初选日程发生了动摇，党内官员寻求优先考虑南卡罗来纳州等其他州。这可能意味着，如果拜登出于对民主党全国委员会的尊重而避免在爱荷华州或新罕布什尔州竞选，肯尼迪或威廉姆森可能会在技术上战胜拜登——这可能是一个痛苦的但只是象征性的损失。
到目前为止，白宫和拜登的竞选团队一直避免直接与两人交锋，而是选择专注于治理和准备大选。
“我认为白宫处理这件事的方式是正确的。他(肯尼迪)是如此遥远，以至于没有民主党选民听他的，他只是基本上在做MAGA播客，”民主党策略师埃迪·维尔说，他指的是肯尼迪喜欢在主流媒体露面的同时出现在保守派平台上。
谈到辩论，Vale说，只有当初选“势均力敌，或者初选是否有竞争力值得商榷”时，他才会支持进行辩论。
他说，与肯尼迪或威廉姆森进行辩论“对谁都没有好处”。
Biden has enormous polling lead in Democratic primary, despite challenge from RFK Jr.
PresidentJoe Bidenhas a yawning early lead in FiveThirtyEight's newDemocratic presidential primary polling averageas he ramps uphis reelection campaign.
As of Thursday, the new average shows Biden with 65.5% support nationally and controversial environmental advocate and attorney Robert F. Kennedy Jr. trailing at a distant 14.2%, despite extensive media attention andmore than $6 million in donationsso far.
Marianne Williamson, a bestselling author and speaker whose campaign is being run by a revolving door of strategists on a shoestring budget,according to financial filings, is not included in the average as she does not meet FiveThirtyEight's criteria to be a major candidate.
Some of the polls included in the new average show Williamson drawing support in the low single digits.
The average underscores the challenges for Kennedy with Democratic voters even as he boasts membership in one of America's most famous political dynasties. His bid for the White House has also cast a new spotlight on his history of spreading conspiracy theories and misinformation on public health issues.
Kennedy, whose campaign did not respond to a request for comment for this story, has defended his odds. "I'm up against a very, very formidable force -- the Democratic Party," he said earlier this week. "But I also think that I have a lot of paths to victory."
Williamson, whose campaign also didn't respond to a request, has likewise contended her chances aren't so easily dismissed.
"American politics is very, very unpredictable," she previously told ABC News, casting her lack of political expertise as an asset: "The problem is not that we don't have good political car mechanics in Washington," she said then. "The problem is that we are on the wrong road. And that's what I know about."
Biden wields significant advantages of his own, including the trappings of the White House, the full-throated support of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and the lack of a primary rival who falls within the Democratic mainstream, with a source familiar with Biden's campaign telling ABC News there is "zero doubt" from campaign officials or the DNC that Biden will be the nominee of the Democratic Party.
"President Biden and Vice President [Kamala] Harris are running on the best legislative record in modern history delivering for the American people, and they areheartened by the unprecedented unity across the Democratic Partyin support of their campaign," boasted TJ Ducklo, a senior adviser for communications on the Biden campaign.
"In 2020, they assembled a broad and diverse coalition that resulted in the most votes in American history for a presidential ticket. And, coming off of the best midterm for a sitting president since FDR, they will do it again in 2024 and prevail over the MAGA extremist agenda that seeks to rip away basic freedoms from Americans across every state," Ducklo said.
Biden's main advantage is that of incumbency, which helps him work directly with the DNC and largely clear the field of mainstream primary opponents.
In a sign of the party support behind him, the DNC isnot anticipated to hold any primary debates-- irking some activists but sparking few complaints from party members.
That type of tight-knit cooperation is not unique to Biden or even to Democrats: The Republican National Committee held no primary debates in 2020, and many states canceled their nominating contests to smooth the path for then-President Donald Trump.
On top of that, allies note, Biden has the ability to use Air Force One to bounce around the campaign trail and he can roll out policies -- including the bipartisan infrastructure bill and funding for microchip manufacturing -- from the White House.
"Biden and Harris are running on a strong record and core values that are not only strong, but also given the contrast, it's not surprising to see such a sizable lead," said Karen Finney, a former DNC official and Democratic strategist close to the White House.
At the same time, Biden is somewhat constrained by his status as the leader of the Democratic Party in a way that Kennedy and Williamson aren't, observers say.
The latter two are more free to campaign in the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary amid a shake-up over the Democrats' larger primary calendar, as party officials seek to prioritize other states like South Carolina. That could mean either Kennedy or Williamson may technically win in Iowa or New Hampshire over Biden, if Biden avoids campaigning there out of deference to the DNC -- a potentially stinging but only symbolic loss.
The White House and Biden's campaign have so far steered clear of taking the two on directly, opting instead to focus on governing and preparing for the general election.
"I think the way the White House is handling it is correct. He [Kennedy] is so far out there that no Democratic voters are listening to him, and he is just basically doing MAGA podcasts," said Democratic strategist Eddie Vale, referencing Kennedy's penchant for appearing on conservative-leaning platforms along with mainstream media appearances.
When it comes to debates, Vale said he'd only be supportive of having them if the primary was "a close call, or debatable if a primary is competitive or not."
"But no one is served by having a debate" with Kennedy or Williamson, he said.
