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美国就业报告低于预期,引发衰退恐慌

2019-09-07 12:45  美国新闻网  -  4513

 

美国8月份仅增加了13万个就业岗位,低于经济学家的预期,引发了对即将到来的衰退的更多担忧。

上个月的短缺将2019年的月平均就业增长拉低至143,000人。一年前,每月平均增长约208,000个工作岗位。这下降了近30%。

经济学家和金融分析师公开担心即将到来的经济衰退的可能性,特别是自上月收益率曲线反转以来,就业增长的稳步下降无助于缓解他们的担忧。上月的就业报告也在很大程度上得到了美国人口普查工作人员的支持,联邦政府雇佣了25000名临时工为明年8月的人口普查做准备。

尽管如此,马克·哈姆里克Bankrate.com说没必要担心。“美国的招聘正在放缓,但没有停止。这将有助于遏制对近期衰退的担忧,”他在分析中写道。“随着这份报告逐渐被人们淡忘,人们预计美国经济将在未来几个月继续增长,但衰退的风险却加大了。”

其他经济学家也很谨慎。布朗兄弟哈里曼的首席投资策略师斯科特·克莱蒙斯告诉CNBC:“如果我们不是已经在谈论衰退风险,也不是已经在寻找经济放缓的迹象,我们就不会从今天开始,因为这份就业报告。”。道琼斯工业平均指数在该报告发布后也上涨了约100点,这表明投资者对这一消息无动于衷。

但是,急于表明特朗普总统不是他所说的“工作,工作,工作”领导人的民主党特工们,欣然接受了这个消息。“特朗普总统古怪的行为和鲁莽的经济政策正在给美国工人带来不确定性和焦虑。工资增长持平。制造业正在衰退。民主党全国委员会主席汤姆·佩雷斯在一份电子邮件声明中写道。“他没有建立一个对所有人都有效的经济,而是整天在推特上散布明显的谎言和小侮辱。”

Wall Street
交易员彼得·塔克曼(Peter Tachman)于2019年8月23日在纽约市的纽约证券交易所(NYSE)工作
 

特朗普政府对这份报告持积极态度。“经济很好。唯一增加“不确定性”的是假新闻!”唐纳德·特朗普总统在推特上写道。白宫新闻秘书斯蒂芬妮·格里森在一份声明中写道,“另一份令人难以置信的就业报告。在特朗普总统的领导下,经济挑战了那些没有看到促增长政策将会产生难以置信的影响的怀疑者。”

Bankrate对经济学家的调查发现,平均而言,他们认为美国在2020年总统选举前有40%的机会陷入衰退。
 

JOBS REPORT FALLS SHORT OF EXPECTATIONS, STOKES RECESSION FEARS

The U.S. added just 130,000 jobs in August, falling short of economists expectations and stoking more fears of an impending recession.

Last month's shortfall pulled the average monthly job growth down to 143,000 for 2019. A year ago the monthly growth averaged about 208,000 jobs each month. That's a decline of nearly 30 percent.

Economists and financial analysts have worried publicly about the possibility of a forthcoming economic downturn, particularly since the yield curve inverted last month, and a steady decline in job growth doesn't do much to alleviate their fears. The jobs report last month was also largely bolstered by hiring for U.S. census workers, the federal government hired 25,000 temporary workers to prepare for the Census next August.

Still, Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate.com says there's no need to worry, yet. "Hiring in the U.S. is slowing, but not stopping. That should help to contain fears of a recession in the near-term," he wrote in his analysis. "As this report fades into memory, the expectation is that the U.S. economy will continue to grow in the months ahead, but the risks of a recession are heightened."

Other economists were also cautious. "If we weren't already talking about recession risk and already looking for signs of a slowdown, we wouldn't start today because of this jobs report," said Scott Clemons, chief investment strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman, told CNBC. The Dow Industrial Average also rose about 100 points after the report, signaling that investors were letting the news roll off of their backs.

But Democratic operatives, eager to show that President Trump is not the "jobs, jobs, jobs" leader he says he is, jumped on the news. "President Trump's erratic behavior and reckless economic policies are causing uncertainty and angst for the American worker. Wage growth is flat. Manufacturing is in decline. And job growth continues to slow," wrote Democratic National Committee Chair Tom Perez in an emailed statement. "Instead of building an economy that works for everyone, he spends all day on Twitter spewing obvious lies and petty insults."

Wall Street
Trader Peter Tachman works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on August 23, 2019 in New York City.

The Trump administration was positive about the report. "The Economy is great. The only thing adding to 'uncertainty' is the Fake News!" tweeted President Donald Trump. White House Press Secretary Stephanie Grisham wrote in a statement, "another incredible jobs report. Under President Trump, the economy has defied the doubters who failed to see the incredible impact pro-growth policies would have."

Bankrate's survey of economists found that on average, they believe there's a 40 percent chance that the U.S. will be in recession before the 2020 presidential election.

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