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民意测验:伊丽莎白·沃伦继续飙升至2020年民主党候选人榜首,拜登保持微弱领

2019-09-09 14:00  美国新闻网  -  3075

 

马萨诸塞州参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦继续向民主党总统候选人的顶端挺进,但是前副总统乔·拜登仍然保持着越来越微弱的领先优势。

哥伦比亚广播公司最新新闻/YouGov”战场跟踪器“数据显示,沃伦在早期初选州,包括爱荷华州、新罕布什尔州和几个超级星期二的竞选中,在支持率方面略胜拜登。但是拜登在民主党全国代表大会上仍然保持着对沃伦的微弱领先,预计他将获得600名代表的提名,而沃伦的提名是545名。随着低层候选人的支持者转向进步的民主党参议员,沃伦的代表比例不断上升。

佛蒙特州独立参议员伯尼·桑德斯在286名早期竞选代表的支持下,仍然在三名顶级候选人中占据第三位。

就首选候选人偏好而言,拜登在爱荷华州比桑德斯略微领先,而沃伦则在新罕布什尔州名列前茅。在内华达州,桑德斯比拜登和沃伦稍有优势。排在第一的三人组后面的是南本德、印第安纳州市长皮特·巴蒂吉和加州参议员卡马拉·哈里斯,他们分别获得了三分之一的支持率和8%和7%。

尤其是沃伦,从哈里斯的支持者那里获得了支持她的竞选的动力。总的来说,60%的民主党人在考虑沃伦,而拜登只有50%。即使在选民中沃伦不是第一选择的候选人当中,她仍然比其他所有候选人被更多地考虑。

在南卡罗来纳州,拜登的支持率是其他候选人的两倍多,43%的居民支持他,桑德斯和沃伦的支持率分别为18%和14%。

据美联社报道,尽管拜登对沃伦和桑德斯的领先优势越来越小,但他上个月还是在爱荷华州的普罗尔引导了唐纳德·特朗普总统的自吹自擂。“我想做的是从一个城镇走到另一个城镇,我吸引的人群和其他人一样多,或者比任何人都多。你见过有人在这个州比我吸引更多的人吗?”领先者说。

拜登继续称自己是能够在2020年击败特朗普的人。民主党分析家和民意测验专家继续重申民主党选民希望从他们党的2020年总统候选人中获得的主要特征是能够击败特朗普的人。然而,沃伦在选举能力衡量方面取得了显著进步,自6月份以来上升了16个百分点,从39%的人认为她能赢得今天55%的多数。

 

“我们不能,我也不会,让这个人再次当选美利坚合众国总统,”拜登上周向爱荷华州的人群宣布。

据哥伦比亚广播公司新闻/YouGov民调显示,早期竞选州的大多数民主党初选选民认为,该党最终将选出一名候选人,继续在大选中击败特朗普。

msnbc, elizabeth warren, 2020, poll, biden
一个困惑的MSNBC小组考虑伊丽莎白·沃伦2020年的竞选是否已经结束,引用“残酷”的民调数字显示她远远落后于乔·拜登和伯尼·桑德斯

ELIZABETH WARREN CONTINUES SURGE TOWARD TOP OF 2020 DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES, BIDEN HOLDS ON TO NARROW LEAD: POLL

Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren continues surging toward the top of the Democratic presidential candidates, but former Vice President Joe Biden still holds onto an increasingly narrow polling lead.

The latest CBS News/YouGov "battleground tracker" data finds that Warren holds a slight advantage over Biden in terms of favorability in early primary states – including Iowa, New Hampshire and several Super Tuesday contests. But Biden is clinging to a small lead over Warren in Democratic National Convention estimates, where he is still expected to clinch the nomination with 600 delegates compared to Warren's 545. Warren's increasing delegate share has been rising as supporters of lower tier candidates have been switching over to the progressive Democratic senator.

Vermont Independent Senator Bernie Sanders is still holding down the third position within the trio of top-tier candidates with the support of 286 early contest delegates.

In terms of first-choice candidate preferences, Biden holds a slight edge over Sanders in Iowa, while Warren has risen to the top of the pack in New Hampshire. In Nevada, Sanders has a slight advantage over Biden and Warren. Behind the top-tier trio, South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg and California Senator Kamala Harris have about one-third of the support, sitting with 8 and 7 percent respectively.

Warren, in particular, gained momentum from supporters of Harris switching over to supporting her campaign. Overall, Warren is under consideration by 60 percent of Democrats versus Biden's 50 percent. Even among candidates where Warren is not the first choice among voters, she is still being considered more than all of the other candidates.

In South Carolina, Biden has more than twice the support of any other candidate, with 43 percent of residents backing him versus 18 and 14 percent for Sanders and Warren, respectively.

Regardless of his dwindling lead over Warren and Sanders, Biden channeled President Donald Trump's braggadocio in Prole, Iowa last month, according to the Associated Press. "What I'm trying to do is go around from town to town and I'm drawing as big of crowds, or bigger than anybody. Have you seen anybody draw bigger crowds than me in this state?" the frontrunner said.

Biden continues to refer to himself as the man who can actually beat Trump in 2020. Democrat analysts and pollsters continue to reiterate that the primary characteristic Democratic voters want out of their party's 2020 presidential candidate is someone who can defeat Trump. Warren, however, has made significant gains in terms of electability measurements, rising 16 points since June from 39 percent who believe she can win to a 55 percent majority today.

 

"We cannot, and I will not, let this man be reelected president of the United States of America," Biden declared to the Iowa crowd last week.

According to the CBS News/YouGov poll, a majority of Democratic primary voters in the early contest states believe the party will ultimately select a nominee who will go on to defeat Trump in the general election.

msnbc, elizabeth warren, 2020, poll, biden
A baffled MSNBC panel pondered if Elizabeth Warren's 2020 campaign is already done, citing "brutal" poll numbers showing her trailing far behind Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders.

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