本月早些时候，俄克拉荷马州共和党州长凯文·斯蒂特(Kevin Stitt)震惊了州策略师和国家政治人士，当时几项私人民调显示他落后于民主党对手乔伊·霍夫迈斯特(Joy Hofmeister)，几个月前他在这个历史上保守的州的调查中领先她两位数。
民意调查中的差距也异常的小，根据统计，仍保持在几个点的差距内五点四十八分聚合。
没有几个州比俄克拉荷马州对共和党更有利，在那里，民主党人已经超过十年没有当选州长，该党也没有成员在该州的国会代表团中任职。自2006年以来，共和党人在州议会两院都占据绝对多数，并赢得了全州所有席位。前总统唐纳德·特朗普2020年赢了该州30多分。
因此，斯蒂特输给温和派民主党人霍夫迈斯特的可能性很大，霍夫迈斯特是一名前共和党成员，去年为了与他竞选而改变了从属关系。
这吓坏了全国共和党人，引发了共和党州长协会(Republican Governors Association)的第11个小时复苏努力，该协会上周刚刚推出了一项七位数的广告购买计划，以在此前安全的比赛中提振Stitt，迄今为止，民主党与共和党的支出比例几乎为三比一，其中大部分来自外部团体。
俄克拉荷马州共和党政治咨询公司Ascend Action的哈德逊·塔利(Hudson Talley)说:“斯蒂特在这场竞选的大部分时间里一直领先，我们注意到，在过去的三四个月里，每月都有轻微的下降趋势。”"直到最后我们才真正看到这里发生了巨大的变化."
他们在本月早些时候收集的数据显示，俄克拉荷马州公共教育主管霍夫迈斯特在最近的一次调查中领先于斯蒂特调查在638名可能投票的选民中，他领先了7个百分点，这是他第一次在该州的西部农村地区落后，那里是共和党的大本营。然而，民意调查显示，88%的受访者尚未决定。
“就在上一两个星期，国家团体开始加入进来。但这就是计划，直到一些民意调查朝着错误的方向发展。”
在“想象这个俄克拉荷马”和“俄克拉荷马项目”等政治行动委员会与霍夫迈斯特的竞选委员会之间，特瑞的咨询集团跟踪了针对现任州长的超过1500万美元的广告支出。Amber Integrated的俄克拉荷马州民调专家杰克逊·莱尔(Jackson Lisle)表示，他追踪到霍夫迈斯特的正面广告和州长的负面广告金额在1000万至2000万美元之间。
琥珀集成的10月17日投票在大约500名选民中，有45.3%的选民表示他们将投票给斯蒂特或“倾向于”投票给他，45.9%的选民表示霍夫迈斯特也是如此。
“所以，当你在俄克拉荷马州这样的小电视市场上花那么多钱反对某人时，它会移动指针，但令人惊讶的是其中一些来自哪里，”特瑞说。
“我真的不认为他们会找到一条如此打动共和党选民的信息通道。”
如果斯蒂特，一个百万富翁抵押贷款公司老板-他自己是切罗基族的一员，四年前竞选时是一个政治新人-在两周内失去连任竞选，他将在这个深红色的州侵蚀一些长期以来的先例。
根据史迪特的竞选团队和俄克拉荷马州的政治战略家的说法，从来没有在州长竞选中花费过这么多的“黑钱”。据一位部落首领说，俄克拉荷马州五个最大的美国土著部落的领导人很少像他们支持霍夫迈斯特那样联合起来支持一位政治候选人。富裕、受过高等教育、传统上属于共和党的女性从未在基层组织起来反对共和党候选人，就像一些关注堕胎的选民在城市地区开始这样做一样。
该州正经历着特殊利益集团对州长无与伦比的开支水平。大多数针对Stitt的广告都是由所谓的腐败指控驱动的。
“我们从来没有见过一个单独的行业能够以这种水平资助一次活动，”Stitt的活动经理Donelle Harder说。“那不正常。你在其他州看不到这些。”
一些腐败丑闻困扰着史迪特的政府，其中包括延迟分发数百万联邦新冠肺炎救济美元——原本是用于教育的——同时以不正当的方式使用一些救济联邦政府审计说得不当。
正在进行的刑事调查调查该州在与一家烧烤店签订合同上花费了1700多万美元。
当被问及此事时，斯蒂特在州长辩论中说:“如果供应商做错了什么，并且要价过高，俄克拉荷马人希望有人对每一份合同都有新的看法。”“这就是我们正在做的。”
据报道，州长也试图通过账单卫生部和土地办公室的招聘要求，以适应他的选择。
“在俄克拉荷马州，前所未有的5000万美元的黑钱被用于歪曲信息和传播谎言，当地媒体因此获得了创纪录的利润。俄克拉荷马人知道真相，州长斯蒂特在当选为局外人时，让一小部分人在国会大厦失去了权力，反过来，州长斯蒂特将该州的预算赤字历史变成了创纪录的盈余，为所有人减税，并以历史最高水平资助公共教育和教师工资，”哈德在回应美国广播公司关于腐败的报道时说。
斯蒂特和他的盟友把他的负面广告归咎于该州的美国土著部落。
“是大赌场的老板们。这是大部落，”他告诉俄克拉荷马州。
“我们不资助黑金实体，”切罗基族主要负责人小查克·霍斯金告诉俄克拉荷马州的。“我们当然会在比赛中投入资源。”
然而，大部分资金的来源尚不清楚，是由不透露其捐赠者的团体资助的。霍夫迈斯特在上周三的辩论中表示，她不知道谁是广告的幕后黑手。
两周前，五个部落的领导人——包括切罗基人、奇克索人、马斯科吉人、乔克托人和塞米诺尔人——首次联合起来支持霍夫迈斯特，此前他们几乎在州长的第一个任期内一直与州长发生冲突。
“就像这样的支持而言，这是一个先例，我相信州长真的团结了我们，因为对于部落试图为我们的部落成员和俄克拉荷马州实现的目标，缺乏团结和理解，”共和党人乔克托部落酋长加里·巴顿告诉美国广播公司新闻，他指出他的部落-全国第三大部落-在整个竞选过程中“非常”希望继续资助霍夫迈斯特。
“我认为，如果我不为我们的部落成员挺身而出，代表我们整个部落，那将是一种失职。”
Batton酋长说，他支持Stitt竞选公职，因为他对可能出现一个与美国土著社区有联系的商人政治局外人感到兴奋。他说，接下来的任期“令人失望”。
在Stitt试图重新谈判该州的部落游戏契约以及州长对McGirt v. Oklahoma的处理之后，这些部落与Stitt保持了艰难的关系，该案件最终被提交到美国最高法院，该法院裁定俄克拉荷马州东部的大部分是印第安人的土地。
Joy Hofmeister speaks at a press conference as the leaders of Oklahom's largest tribes endorse Hofmeister for governor in Oklahoma City, on Oct. 11, 2022.
nathan j . Fish/Oklahoman，通过《今日美国》网络
“我们确实认为我们的主权受到了攻击，缺乏团结，”他说。“我们的生计危在旦夕……这就是我们站出来的原因，我们必须保护我们的主权，我们必须保护我们的生活方式。”
施蒂特的竞选经理霍尔德持不同观点。
“任何时候(斯蒂特)试图追究某人的责任，或给历史上的州合同一个新的视角，试图让该州脱离最后排名，总会有特殊利益集团的暗道，”她说。
在城市地区，州长正面临着来自传统共和党女性的令人惊讶的反对——据一位组织者说，许多人嫁给了石油和天然气行业的男人——她们创建了像“我们正在崛起”一群生殖权利倡导者发起了对这位自称“最反堕胎州长”的讨伐，这位州长推出了一系列禁止堕胎的新法律，即使是在强奸或乱伦的情况下。
主要组织者之一金·加瑞特(Kim Garett)表示，“数百名”有地位的温和派至保守派女性——其中一些人与州长本人有直接关系——参与了20多次集会或筹款活动，旨在推动霍夫迈斯特等支持堕胎的候选人。最引人注目的成员之一是共和党州劳工专员莱斯利·奥斯本。
“我从来没有见过俄克拉荷马州有这么多人谈论政治，这么多人想参与政治，因为这种情况已经发生了，而且已经发生了很长时间。因此，在此之前，我的观点没有什么真正改变，”我们正在崛起成员詹妮弗·韦尔奇说，她在布拉沃节目“甜蜜的家乡俄克拉荷马州”中获得了恶名
“我可以用我的一切发誓。(有些人)从来没有投过民主党人的票，但他们在自己的Instagrams上发帖说，‘投蓝色的票’，我简直惊呆了，因为我从7岁起就住在这里。”
俄克拉荷马州的民调专家说，推动选民这一轮投票的另一个主要问题是教育，这是这场竞选的中心议题，史迪特一直在推行私立学校奖学金和特许扩张等学校选择政策，而霍夫迈斯特则支持公立学校。俄克拉荷马州的策略师说，这个问题在大多数民意调查中对霍夫迈斯特有利。
塔利说:“农村共和党人可能在所有其他问题上都同意都会区共和党人的意见，但在公共教育问题上倾向于分歧，因为在我们一些真正的农村县，最大的就业机会创造者是他们当地的学区。”
GOP Gov. Kevin Stitt in surprisingly close reelection contest in deep red Oklahoma
Oklahoma's Republican Gov. Kevin Stitt stunned state strategists and national politicos earlier this month when several private polls showed him trailing Democratic opponent Joy Hofmeister, only a few months after he led her by double digits in their surveys of the historically conservative state.
Margins were also unusually thin in public polling, and remain within a several point difference in favor of Stitt, according toFiveThrtyEight'saggregation.
Few states have a more favorable landscape for the GOP than Oklahoma, where a Democrat hasn't been elected governor in over a decade and no member of the party serves in the state's congressional delegation. Republicans have supermajorities in both of the state legislative chambers and have won every seat for statewide office since 2006. Former PresidentDonald Trumpwon the state by more than 30 points in 2020.
So, the possibility of a Stitt loss to moderate Democrat Hofmeister, a former GOP member who changed affiliation last year in order to run against him, would be significant.
It's frightened national Republicans, triggering an 11th-hour resuscitation effort by the Republican Governors Association, which just last week launched a seven-figure ad buy to boost Stitt in the formerly safe contest, so far marked by an almost a three-to-one ratio of Democratic to GOP spending, mostly from outside groups.
"Stitt had been leading for the vast majority of this race, we've noticed just a slight downtrend monthly for the last three or four months now," said Hudson Talley, with Oklahoma-based Republican political consulting firm Ascend Action. "It wasn't until we actually saw a pretty seismic shift here at the end."
Their data, collected earlier this month, shows Hofmeister, the Oklahoma Superintendent of Public Instruction, leading Stitt in a recentsurveyof 638 likely voters by seven points, for the first time marking him down in the rural Western part of the state, a Republican stronghold. The poll recorded 88% of respondents were undecided, however.
"National groups are starting to come in just as of last week or two. But that was the plan until some of the polls trended the wrong direction."
Between PACs like "Imagine This Oklahoma" and the "Oklahoma Project" and Hofmeister's campaign committee, Talley's consulting group has tracked over $15 million in advertising spent against the incumbent governor. Oklahoma-based pollster Jackson Lisle of Amber Integrated said he's tracked anywhere between 10 and $20 million in positive ads for Hofmeister and negative ads for the governor.
Amber Integrated's Oct. 17pollingof about 500 voters found the race in dead heat, with 45.3% of voters saying they will vote for Stitt or "lean towards" voting for him and 45.9% saying the same of Hofmeister.
"And so when you spend that much money against somebody in small TV markets like Oklahoma's, it moves the needle, but it is surprising where some of that is coming from," said Talley.
"I just didn't really think they would find a messaging lane that moved Republican voters as much as it has."
If Stitt, a multimillionaire mortgage company owner -- a member of the Cherokee nation himself and a political newcomer when he ran four years ago -- loses his reelection bid in two weeks, he'll do so eroding a number of longstanding precedents set in the deeply red state.
Never has this amount of "dark money" been spent in the governor's race, according to Stitt's campaign and the Oklahoma-based political strategists. Seldom have leaders of the five largest Native American tribes in Oklahoma united to endorse a political candidate as they have done for Hofmeister, according to one tribal chief. And never have wealthy, highly educated, traditionally Republican women organized against a GOP candidate at the grassroots level the way a number of abortion-focused voters have started to do so in urban areas.
The state is experiencing unrivaled levels of spending against the governor from special interest groups. Most of the advertising against Stitt is driven by claims of alleged corruption.
"We have never seen an individual industry be able to bankroll a campaign at this level before," said Stitt's campaign manager Donelle Harder. "That is not normal. You do not see these in other states."
A number of corruption scandals have plagued Stitt's administration, which include a delay in distribution of millions of federal COVID-19 relief dollars -- meant originally for education -- while spending some of the relief in ways that thefederal government auditsaid was improper.
An ongoing criminal probe isinvestigatingthe state's spending of upward of $17 million on contracts with a barbecue restaurant.
"If the vendors are doing anything wrong and overcharging the state, Oklahomans want somebody to put a fresh set of eyes on every single contract," Stitt said during a gubernatorial debate, when asked about the matter. "That's what we're doing."
The governor reportedly has also sought to change through abillthe hiring requirements for the Health Department and Land Office in order to accommodate his picks.
"An unprecedented $50 million dollars has been spent in dark money in Oklahoma to distort information and spread lies, and local media outlets have made record profits as a result. Oklahomans know the truth that Governor Stitt has upset a small few who lost their power at the capitol when he was elected as an outsider, and in turn, Gov. Stitt has turned the State's history of budget deficits into record-high surpluses, cut taxes for all, and funded public education and teacher salaries at historic highs," Harder said in response to ABC News about reports of corruption.
Stitt and his allies have placed the blame on the state's Native American tribes for his negative advertising.
"It's the big casino bosses. It's the big tribes," he toldThe Oklahoman.
"We don't fund dark money entities," Cherokee Nation Principal Chief Chuck Hoskin Jr. told theOklahoman. "We certainly put resources into races."
The source of much of the money is unclear, however, funded by groups that don't disclose their donors. Hofmeister, during a debate last Wednesday, said she didn't know who was behind the advertisements.
Two weeks ago, leaders of the Five Tribes -- including the Cherokee, Chickasaw, Muscogee, Choctaw and Seminole Nations -- for the first time banded together to back Hofmeister, after they've engaged in conflict with the governor for almost the entirety of his first term.
"As far as an endorsement like this, this is precedent setting, I believe that the governor has really united us, because there has been such a lack of unity and understanding of what the tribes are trying to accomplish for our tribal members and for the state of Oklahoma," Choctaw Nation Chief Gary Batton, a Republican, told ABC News, who noted his tribe -- the third largest in the nation -- was "very much" looking to continue funding Hofmeister throughout the race.
"I think it would be a dereliction of duty, if I did not stand up for our tribal members and represent our tribe as a whole."
Chief Batton said he supported Stitt when he ran for office, excited by the possibility of a businessman political outsider with ties to the Native American community. The ensuing term has been "disappointing," he said.
The tribes have maintained a difficult relationship with Stitt following his attempts to renegotiate the state's tribal gaming compacts, and the governor's handling of McGirt v. Oklahoma, a case ultimately brought up to the U.S. Supreme Court which determined that much of eastern Oklahoma is Indian land.
"We do believe that our sovereignty has been attacked, there has been a lack of unity," he said. "Our livelihood is at stake … that's the reason why we've stepped up and we have to protect our sovereignty, we have to protect our way of life."
Holder, Stitt's campaign manager, took a different view.
"Anytime [Stitt] tries to hold someone accountable or give a fresh set of eyes to historic state contracts in an attempt to get the state out of last-placed ranking, there's always been back-channeling from special interest groups," she said.
In urban areas, the governor is facing surprising opposition from traditionally Republican women-- many married to men in the oil and gas industry, according to one organizer-- who have created groups like "We Are Rising," a band of reproductive rights advocates crusading against the self-described "most pro-life governor," one who has rolled out a number of new laws outlawing abortion, even in cases of rape or incest.
Kim Garett, one of the lead organizers, said that "easily hundreds" of moderate to conservative women of status – some with direct ties to the governor himself -- have been involved in upwards of 20 gatherings or fundraising meant to boost pro-choice candidates like Hofmeister. One of the most high-profile members is the Republican State Labor Commissioner Leslie Osborn.
"I've never seen an Oklahoma, this many people talk about politics, this many people want to get involved in politics because the dye was already cast, and has been cast for a very long time. So nothing really moved the needle in my perspective until this," said We are Rising member Jennifer Welch, who gained notoriety on the BRAVO show "Sweet Home Oklahoma."
"I could have sworn with everything in me. [some have] never voted for a Democrat ever, and they're posting on their Instagrams, 'vote blue,' and just my jaw is on the floor, because I've lived here since I was seven."
Another leading issue driving voters this cycle, Oklahoman pollsters have said, is education -- a center stage issue in the race that has pitted Stitt, who has run on school choice policies like private school scholarships and charter expansion, against Hofmeister, who backs public schooling. The issue is playing out in favor of Hofmeister in most polling, Oklahoma strategists have said.
"Rural Republicans who might agree with a metro area Republican on every other issue, tend to diverge on issues of public education, because in some of our really rural counties, the biggest jobs creator is their local school districts," Talley said.
