前罗德岛州克兰斯顿市长艾伦·冯(Allen Fung)是一名共和党人,他正在众议院进行一场强大的竞选活动,众议院地区总统乔·拜登(Joe Biden)在2020年以13个百分点的优势获胜,威胁要以温和的信息颠覆。
“我不喜欢分裂。我不喜欢传播任何形式的选举否认。我是我自己的人。我将成为那里温和的声音。我相信我会带来中间派的声音,”冯告诉美国广播公司新闻。“希望不只是我自己。”
然而,越来越不清楚谁将符合冯希望加入国会的温和派类型。
在唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)领导下转变的共和党中,什么算温和尚不清楚,因为策略师们表示,意识形态标签正越来越多地被强调个性和对前总统的态度所搅乱。
一些议员,如缅因州共和党参议员苏珊·科林斯和阿拉斯加共和党参议员莉萨·穆尔科斯基,宣扬他们温和的诚意,指出他们在社会问题和财政保守主义上的中间派政策。像冯和科罗拉多州共和党参议员提名人乔·奥迪亚这样的候选人正在部署类似的剧本,因为他们试图跟随他们到华盛顿。
然而,“温和派”一词正在媒体和党内经营者及领导人之间得到更广泛的传播,尽管在现实中,党员们表示,扮演温和派的人是那些关键人物较低的人,并与共和党事实上的领导人特朗普保持一定距离。
“我们已经重新定义了保守主义,或者我认为媒体在很大程度上与特朗普世界勾结,将保守主义重新定义为特朗普主义,它们不是一回事,”前众议院共和党领导人助理道格·叶禾说。“如果你已经理解了这个词的意思,那么,适度也就意味着不同的东西。”
“我不认为今天的共和党中有多少温和派,如果有的话,”共和党全国委员会成员比尔·帕拉图奇补充道。“这是一种已经灭绝的品种。这些天来,这场斗争发生在我认为真正的保守派和特朗普的辩护者之间。”
被贴上“温和派”标签的人包括像即将退休的共和党参议员帕特·图米这样的立法者。以及即将离任的共和党众议员利兹·切尼(Liz Cheney),她今年在初选中输给了特朗普支持的挑战者。去年国会大厦骚乱后,两人都支持弹劾特朗普,但根据他们的投票记录,图米拥有美国保守派联盟92%的支持率,切尼拥有77%的支持率。
另一位被吹捧为现代温和派的共和党人是弗吉尼亚州州长格伦·扬金(Glenn Youngkin),他在2021年赢得了他的席位,他专注于教育,同时拒绝拥抱特朗普。
然而,扬金推动禁止在学校教授“分裂性概念”,呼吁要求跨性别学生获得父母的正式许可,以认同自己的性别身份,并寻求退出与其他州达成的减少温室气体排放的协议。据传他着眼于2024年的白宫竞选,他也一直在与亚利桑那州共和党州长候选人卡莉·莱克(Kari Lake)等人一起竞选,后者一直在传播关于2020年选举的阴谋论。
策略师表示,随着选民越来越不认同政策的优先顺序,对温和派的误解正在增加。
“如果你不在有线电视新闻上用简洁的一句话来提高你的声音,你就是一个温和派。在我们的政治中,它变成了语气重于实质。我们有焦点小组,如果你去过候选人的网站,请举手,从来没有人举手,”一位从事众议院选举的共和党策略师说。
“那么,帕特·图米怎么可能是温和派呢?因为他不会让人觉得他是个混蛋。就这样,句号,讨论结束。我们生活在一个有线新闻、社交媒体政治的时代。”
甚至对于仍然支持保守政策的选民来说,特朗普彻底改变了被视为共和党正统的东西。
Rep. Liz Cheney campaigns with Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin at an Evening for Patriotism and Bipartisanship event on Nov. 1, 2022, in East Lansing, Mich.
比尔·普利亚诺/盖蒂图片社
在国内问题上,特朗普抛弃了财政保守主义,支持增加债务的巨额政府支出。在全球舞台上,他彻底改变了共和党对自由贸易的偏好,转而关注由关税推动的“公平贸易”。在军事上,特朗普回避外国干预,这是对一个历史上主张在海外建立强大武装力量的政党的逆转。
“我记得保守派抱怨罗纳德·里根和巨额开支以及他的一些提名人选等等。他们把他的脚放在火边。没人帮唐纳德·川普的脚捡火柴,”叶禾说。“唐纳德·特朗普喜欢花政府的钱。这样做的部分原因是它扩大了我们的赤字和债务。共和党人被置于在几乎所有事情上都支持唐纳德·特朗普的位置。”
平心而论,民主党正面临着自身的身份分裂。来自西弗吉尼亚州的参议员乔·曼钦(Joe Manchin)和来自亚利桑那州的参议员克里斯滕·西内马(Kyrsten Sinema)在50-50的参议院中挫败了民主党的重大政策,并保持了一场正在进行的意识形态拉锯战。
与此同时,共和党的分歧主要不是由政策造成的,而是由特朗普对共和党基层的控制造成的。
“如果有人曾公开讨论过唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)是共和党的一个生存威胁,那他们是在帐篷外面,找不到让他们回来的理由,”特朗普政府的一名前官员表示。
“我们这些在特朗普身边的人,如果利兹·切尼着火了,我不会穿过街道去灭火。这几乎完全是因为她无法从对共和党的忠诚中找到支持美国共和党总统的理由。我的意思是,她做了很长一段时间,然后她就放弃了。在我们看来,这是因为当她离开特朗普时,她就离开了共和党,”这位前官员说。
然而,一些党的战略家和成员表示担心,这种僵化可能会使该国一些地区的比赛无法进行。
科罗拉多州共和党参议员提名人O'Dea一再表示反对特朗普,并在堕胎和医疗保健等问题上采取温和立场。这种策略使得与民主党参议员麦克·班尼在一个倾向于蓝色的州的竞争异常激烈,而共和党州长候选人海蒂·加纳尔(Heidi Ganahl)在竞选早期曾与选举阴谋调情,预计她将以两位数的优势输掉对民主党州长贾里德·波利斯(Jared Polis)的挑战。
“我确实认为,托乔代表了一种共和党人,如果共和党人打算回来,需要在未来的选举中获得提名,”前科罗拉多州共和党主席迪克·沃达姆斯说。“海蒂很早就遇到了麻烦,因为她加入了选举阴谋人群。从那以后,她一直在为此付出代价。”
“如果他感到沮丧,我仍然认为这可能发生,我认为可以从乔在其他州的竞选中吸取很多教训,”Wadhams说。
然而,“温和派”的标签越来越多地与贬义词“RINO”联系在一起,或者只是名义上的共和党人,Wadhams说,这在初选中威胁到了意识形态温和的候选人,如O'Dea,并使最终赢得办公室更加困难。
“我认为传统的保守或温和的标签并不真正适用于今天的共和党,因为我不认为在当今的问题上存在意识形态的差异。共和党民调专家罗伯特·暴雪说:“一个保守的共和党人和一个温和的共和党人在国家面临的每个问题上十有八九还是一样的。”。
这坚定地将仍在党内的立法者的意识形态光谱进一步转向右翼。
当被问及谁将被视为今天共和党中的温和派时,这位前特朗普政府官员指出,参议院少数党领袖米奇·麦康奈尔(Mitch McConnell)是共和党人。
麦康奈尔拥有美国保守派联盟87%的终身支持率。
Definition of 'moderate' scrambled in current GOP
Former Cranston, Rhode Island Mayor Allen Fung, a Republican, is running a strong campaign in a House district President Joe Biden won by 13 points in 2020, threatening an upset with a message of moderation.
"I'm not into divisiveness. I'm not into spreading any type of election denials. I'm my own person. I'm going to be that voice of moderation down there. And I believe that I will bring that voice of centrism," Fung told ABC News. "Hopefully, it's not just myself."
However, it's becoming increasingly unclear who would fit the mold of the type of moderate Fung hopes will join him in Congress.
What counts as moderation in a Republican Party transformed under Donald Trump is unclear, as strategists say ideological labels are getting increasingly scrambled by emphasis on personality and attitudes toward the former president.
Some lawmakers, like Sens. Susan Collins, R-Maine, and Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, tout their moderate bona fides, noting their centrist policies on social issues and fiscal conservatism. Candidates like Fung and Colorado GOP Senate nominee Joe O'Dea are deploying similar playbooks as they seek to follow them to Washington.
Yet, the term "moderate" is getting bandied about more broadly, both in the media and among party operators and leaders, though in reality, party members say those cast as moderates are those who have lower key personalities and keep some distance with Trump, the GOP's de facto leader.
"We've redefined conservatism, or I think the media largely has kind of in collusion with Trumpworld, redefined conservatism as Trumpism, and they're not the same thing," said former House GOP leadership aide Doug Heye. "And then if you've realtered what that term means, well, then moderate has to mean something different as well."
"I don't think there are many moderates, if any, in the Republican party today," added Republican National Committee member Bill Palatucci. "It's kind of an extinct breed. These days, the fight is between what I consider true conservatives and Trump apologists."
Among those who have gotten slapped with the label of "moderate" include lawmakers like retiring Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa., and outgoing Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., who lost her primary to a Trump-backed challenger this year. Both supporting Trump's impeachment after last year's Capitol riot, but Toomey boasts a 92% rating from the American Conservative Union, and Cheney has a 77% rating, based on their voting records.
Another Republican touted as a modern moderate is Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who won his seat in 2021 with a laser focus on education while refusing to bear hug Trump.
Yet Youngkin has pushed for bans on the teaching of "divisive concepts" in schools, called for requiring transgender students to have formal parental permission to identify with their gender identity and has looked to pull out of an agreement with other states to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Rumored to have an eye on a White House run in 2024, he's also been campaigning with people like Arizona GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake, who has spread conspiracy theories about the 2020 election.
Strategists say the misidentification of moderates is on the rise as voters become less attuned with policy priorities.
"If you're not raising your voice with pithy one liners on cable news, you're a moderate. In our politics it's become tone over substance. We do focus groups, raise your hand if you've been to the candidate's website, no one ever raises their hand," said one GOP strategist working on House races.
"So, how could Pat Toomey be a moderate? Well, because he doesn't come across as an asshole. That's it, period, end of discussion. We are living in a cable news, social media political time."
And even for voters who remain invested in conservative policies, Trump thoroughly revamped what counts as Republican orthodoxy.
On domestic issues, Trump threw fiscal conservatism out the window, favoring heavy government spending that increased the debt. And on the global stage, he overhauled the GOP's preference for free trade for one focused on "fair trade" forwarded by tariffs. And militarily, Trump shunned foreign interventions, a reversal for a party that historically advocated for a muscular armed presence overseas.
"I remember conservatives complaining about Ronald Reagan and big spending and some of his nominees and so forth. They held his feet to the fire. No one helped Donald Trump's feet to a matchstick," Heye said. "Donald Trump loves spending government money. And part of what that did is it exploded our deficit and our debt. And Republicans were put in the position of going along with Donald Trump on pretty much everything."
To be sure, Democrats are facing an identity schism of their own. Sens. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., and Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., have thwarted marquee Democratic policies in the 50-50 Senate and kept alive an ongoing ideological tug-of-war.
Republicans' divides, meanwhile, are largely driven less by policy and more by Trump's vice-like grip on the GOP grassroots.
"If anyone has ever discussed publicly, Donald Trump, as an existential threat to the Republican Party, they are outside the tent and will find no flap to bring them back in," said one former Trump administration official.
"Those of us who are around Trump, I wouldn't cross the street to put Liz Cheney out if she was on fire. And it's almost entirely because she just couldn't find it in her devotion to the Republican Party to support the Republican president of the United States. I mean, she did for quite some time and then she just fell off the wagon. From our perspective, it's because when she walked away from Trump, she walked away from the Republican Party," the former official said.
However, some party strategists and members express concern that such rigidity could leave races in some parts of the country off the table.
O'Dea, the GOP Senate nominee in Colorado, has voiced repeated opposition to Trump and taken moderate stances on issues like abortion and healthcare. That tact has made the race against Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet, in a blue-leaning state surprisingly competitive, while GOP gubernatorial nominee Heidi Ganahl, who early in her campaign flirted with election conspiracies, is anticipated to lose her challenge to Democratic Gov. Jared Polis by double digits.
"I do think that to Joe represents a kind of Republican that will need to be nominated in future elections if Republicans are ever going to come back," said former Colorado GOP Chair Dick Wadhams. "Heidi got in trouble early on because she threw in with the election conspiracy crowd. She has been paying a price for that ever since."
"If he pulls an upset, which I still think could happen, I think that there could be a lot of lessons drawn from Joe's campaign in other states," Wadhams said.
However, the label "moderate" is increasingly associated with the derogatory moniker "RINO," or Republican in name only, Wadhams said, threatening ideologically moderate candidates like O'Dea in primaries and making it harder to ultimately win office.
"I think the traditional conservative or moderate labels don't really apply in today's Republican Party because I don't think there's an ideological difference on issues of the day. A conservative Republican and a moderate Republican are still going to be, nine times out of 10, about the same on every issue facing the country," GOP pollster Robert Blizzard said.
That's firmly shifting the ideological spectrum of lawmakers still in the party further to the right.
When asked who would be considered a moderate in today's GOP, the former Trump administration official pointed to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky.
McConnell has a lifetime 87% rating from the American Conservative Union.