对参议院的控制将不再取决于格鲁吉亚。
内华达州现任参议员凯瑟琳·科尔特斯·马斯托击败了共和党人亚当·拉索尔特，使民主党人至少获得了50个席位和对参议院的控制权上闸室。
现在，佐治亚州决选的结果现任参议员Raphael Warnock和共和党人Herschel Walker将决定民主党人是否在参议院拥有一个席位——这将缓解民主党人对委员会和程序的控制，如确认法官，目前需要采取额外措施来克服50-50的分裂——或者这将是另一个依赖副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯打破平局投票的任期。
两党都认为乔治亚州的参议院决赛即使大多数不再悬而未决。
“祝贺我的同事，但我们的信息是一样的，”沃诺克周日在竞选活动中说。
“这次选举是关于谁准备好了，谁适合在美国参议院为格鲁吉亚人民服务。这是一场关于能力和性格的比赛，在这两方面，我和赫歇尔·沃克之间有着天壤之别，”他说。"因此，我期待着在接下来的几周内起诉该案."
周日在桃树城的一次竞选活动中，沃克没有提到参议院的平衡，而是直接专注于他与沃诺克的斗争和他发起竞选的个人选择。
“上帝让我现在就准备好挡住他的路，因为当我开始寻找的时候，我说过我不是——我不应该参与任何政治活动。你以为我想当参议员吗?伙计们，我做得还不错，”他说。“我做得很好，但我说‘不，不，不，不，你不会伤害我的家人。’你们都是我的家人，我不在乎你的肤色。"
民主党人在周末庆祝了他们的胜利，尽管许多人很快转而强调佐治亚州的决选，突显出该党在本任期内与众议院分裂的立法斗争。
如果沃诺克赢得连任，这将使参议院多数党领袖查克·舒默(Chuck Schumer)在失去西弗吉尼亚州参议员乔·曼钦(Joe Manchin)或亚利桑那州参议员克里斯滕·西内马(Kyrsten Sinema)的选票时具有灵活性，这两位中间派人士有时会扰乱民主党在上议院的议程。凭借完全的多数，而不是50-50的分裂，民主党将能够超越平等平衡的委员会，控制主要的小组，为该党通过立法铺平道路，并根据总统乔·拜登的提名采取行动。
“我们仍然有克斯滕·西内马和乔·曼钦的问题。如果民主党人想继续我们的连胜，我们必须为美国人——所有的美国人——做出贡献。我们需要参议员沃诺克，”希拉里·霍利说，她是倡导家政工人的无党派团体“关爱在行动”的执行主任。
与此同时，共和党人正在努力强调分裂的国会有时是如何对他们有利的。他们说，沃克只会增加优势。
“在某些情况下，有些参议员会在关键的立法上与共和党一起投票。随着赫歇尔·沃克(Herschel Walker)的胜利，民主党人获得了额外的选票缓冲，更有可能达成共识和妥协，”共和党策略师朱丽安·汤普森(Julianne Thompson)说。
沃诺克，沃克的决胜竞选成形
特工们还告诫选民不要自满，提醒他们上次在2021年佐治亚州参议院竞选进入决选时发生的事情-在共和党候选人在第一轮获胜后-共和党选民对此漠不关心，导致两次翻转。
“虽然参议院的多数席位不再是问题，但佐治亚州的共和党人仍然对在2021年失去两个美国参议院席位感到不安，并希望夺回席位，”共和党州长桑尼·濮培德的前幕僚长埃里克·塔宁布拉特说。
在另一场决选中，沃诺克的竞选经理昆廷·富尔克斯说，参议员将继续扩大他的支持联盟，吹捧沃诺克在城市和郊区县的表现，他在那里的表现比拜登在2020年的表现要好。
福尔克斯说:“沃诺克牧师将通过继续在付费通信和现场组织方面的战略投资，继续保持推动沃诺克牧师成功的多元化联盟，并强调这场比赛是关于谁能够代表我们的国家，从而赢得决选。”
在竞选活动中，沃诺克与国家党保持距离，试图强调两党合作。他经常回避有关拜登可能参加2024年竞选的问题，在巡回演讲中谈到与得克萨斯州参议员特德·克鲁兹合作，并且只在竞选活动中与几个代理人一起出现，主要是他的佐治亚州参议员乔恩·奥索夫。
另一方面，沃克已经获得了多名主要共和党参议员的支持，他们试图为共和党的多数席位辩护，认为这条路通往佐治亚州。
虽然现在无法将选举框定为夺回参议院控制权的斗争，但沃克现在必须专注于为什么他是代表佐治亚州的更好人选履历仍然在舞台中央。
“如果他当选，他肯定需要专注于他要做的事情。支持沃克的佐治亚州选民梅丽莎(Melissa)在接受美国广播公司(ABC News)采访时表示，与其抨击对手，开展任何类似的竞选活动，不如专注于他的计划是什么，他的政策会是什么，这样人们就可以知道他会做什么。
沃克还需要提高他在农村和城市社区的表现。根据国务卿的选举结果，在上周的中期选举中，他与共和党全州候选人相比表现不佳，比州长布莱恩·坎普少20万张选票。
击败民主党人斯泰西·艾布拉姆斯赢得连任的肯普支持沃克的决选。肯普的地面数据和分析业务——包括付费敲门、电话、建模、缺席投票计划和跟踪——将与米奇·麦康奈尔结盟的参议院领导基金(SLF)合作，该基金将为该业务提供“超过200万美元”的资金，SLF·斯波克斯·杰克·潘多尔告诉美国广播公司新闻。
尽管决赛已经成为格鲁吉亚众所周知的情景，候选人和选民将不得不应对新的规则，围绕选民冷漠的问题以及可能已经展望2024年的政治环境。
新的投票规则增加了一个难题
两位候选人都在周四开始了他们的决选活动，希望保持一个充满活力的基础。
站在约翰·刘易斯的壁画前，沃诺克继续将他与沃克的斗争框定为一场更多围绕道德而非政策的斗争。
“这不是一场关于民主党和共和党的竞选。这不是一场右翼对左翼的竞赛。从根本上说，这是一场关于对与错的竞赛。谁适合格鲁吉亚，谁明显不适合格鲁吉亚，”他说。
“说到这一点，我和赫歇尔·沃克之间的选择再清楚不过了。生活中有些事情很复杂。“这不是其中之一，”他说。
沃克在坎顿的数千人面前开始了他的决选活动，在那里他与德克萨斯州参议员克鲁兹一起参加了竞选。他援引了自己著名的大学和职业足球生涯。
“我们进入了加时赛，这意味着我们进入了决胜阶段。嘿，我就是为此而生的，”他对欢呼者说。“他在附近徘徊，进入了决赛，他认为他会赢。我们需要证明他是错的。”
尽管参议院的控制权已经确定，但两位候选人都必须向他们的选民证明这一点，并在决选周期的中期与感恩节假期进行斗争。沃诺克还必须在佐治亚州的竞选活动和在华盛顿履行职责之间分配时间。
新选民将无法在决选中投票;他们必须在11月7日之前注册。
2020年，成千上万的选民能够在大选后登记参加决选，导致没有在11月投票但在次年1月支持民主党的选民数量激增。(州共和党人随后改变了决选规则，包括在大选后缩短决选时间。)
沃克在周日与选民交谈时已经无意中发现了投票规则。
“我希望你出去，因为你只有在最后一次投票时才能投票，这是他们告诉我的。所以我希望你们，如果你们上次投了票，再投我一票，”沃克说。
较短的提前投票期由于假期变得更短，因为选民也不能在本月的最后一个星期六投票。佐治亚州法律禁止在假期的两天内提前投票，而今年的感恩节是在星期四。
沃诺克和民主党官员现在已经起诉，试图要求周六提前投票，他们认为关于假期截止的规定不适用于决胜选举。
各县可能会选择在感恩节后的周日提前投票，如果届时准备工作已经完成，也可能在之前的周二和周三提前投票。
2020年，当民主党在该州取得两次重大胜利并逆转对美国参议院的控制时，候选人被迫进入为期九周的决选周期;然而，根据格鲁吉亚新的选举法，这次选举将在12月6日选举日的四周后举行。
“毫无疑问，他们看到了我们上次在决胜中的胜利，并试图让这场胜利变得更加艰难。但是格鲁吉亚人民在大选中冲破了这些障碍。我呼吁他们再次做同样的事情，”沃诺克周日告诉记者。
前总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)也对决选产生了重大影响，此前一些共和党人特别指责他在2020年大声宣称选举舞弊，导致共和党在2021年的决选中失去了两个佐治亚州参议院席位。
现在，特朗普预计将推出第三次总统竞选周二晚上，在佐治亚州选民第二次前往投票站前不久，他更深入地参与了全国对话，甚至在盟友和选民中引发了恐慌。
“你知道，我宁愿看到德桑蒂斯在这一点上。我爱川普。我欣赏他。但是我对他的到来有一些复杂的感觉。沃克的支持者史蒂夫·博伦(Steve Bolen)告诉美国广播公司新闻(ABC News)，我绝对希望他等到选举结束后再宣布。“我认为那会转移注意力。我们必须把所有的注意力放在让赫歇尔当选上。”
鉴于这样的评论，共和党的盟友和批评者都认为总统竞选活动可能会阻碍击败沃诺克的努力。
“当然，特朗普总统曾说过，他会在11月15日，也就是下周二，发表声明。特朗普2016年和2020年竞选活动的前顾问杰森·米勒在Newsmax上说，“我建议总统推迟到佐治亚州竞选结束后。”。"当务之急A、B和C现在应该是关于赫歇尔(沃克). "
“法国总统。特朗普下周宣布竞选，参议员沃诺克为佐治亚州的决选筹集了两倍的资金，”特朗普政府前官员迈克尔·卡普托(Michael Caputo)在推特上写道。
尽管如此，决胜选举在历史上是不可预测的，民主党人表示，在12月6日之前，有这么一个狭窄的窗口可以组织，任何事情都可能发生。
参与2021年决选的民主党人表示，参议院控制权已经决定的事实可能会压低双方的投票率，可能会加剧已经预期的投票率下降。
“如果我们已经控制了参议院，这只是锦上添花，我认为你必须质疑，这是否足以成为促使民主党人在12月6日投票的激励因素?我不认为假设他们会这样做是一个预先确定的结论，”沃诺克2020年竞选的一名高级顾问在内华达州参议员竞选开始前接受采访时说，并补充说，失去参议院可能是共和党的“兴奋剂”。
“我要说，这次比上次更不可预测，”另一名参与2021年决胜选举的民主党人说。“更短的(提前投票)时间对民主党来说尤其是一个挑战。沃诺克将需要大量的投票和教育游戏，以确保人们在那一周投票。”
Republicans, Democrats say Ga. runoff could still be key, even without a Senate majority on the line
Control of the Senatewill no longer hinge on Georgia.
Nevada incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto defeated Republican Adam Laxalt, giving Democrats at least 50 seats and control of theupper chamber.
Now,the results of Georgia's runoff electionbetween incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker will determine whether Democrats have a one-seat cushion in the Senate -- which would ease Democrats' control of committees and processes like confirming judges that currently require extra steps to overcome the 50-50 split -- or if it'll be another term of relying on Vice President Kamala Harris' tie-breaking vote.
Both sides of the aisle agree that Georgia's Senaterunoffstill remains important even if the majority no longer hangs in the balance.
"Congratulations to my colleagues, but our message is the same," Warnock said at campaign stop on Sunday.
"This election is about who's ready and who's fit to serve the people of Georgia in the United States Senate. It's a race about competence and about character and on both of those scores, there's a world of difference between me and Herschel Walker," he said. "And so I look forward to prosecuting that case over the next few weeks."
At a campaign stop in Peachtree City on Sunday, Walker made no mention of the balance of the Senate, focusing squarely on his battle against Warnock and his personal choice to launch a campaign.
"The Lord prepared me to get in his way right now because as I started looking, I said that I'm not -- I wasn't supposed to be running on no politics. You think that I wanted to be a senator? Guys, I was doing OK," he said. "I was doing alright but I said 'no, no, no, no, you're not gonna hurt my family.' And all of you are my family I don't care what color your skin is."
Democrats celebrated their victories over the weekend even though many quickly shifted back to emphasizing Georgia's runoff, highlighting the party's legislative struggles this term with a split chamber.
Should Warnock win reelection, it would offer Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., flexibility in the moments that he loses the votes of either Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., or Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., two centrists who have at times disrupted Democrats' agenda in the upper chamber. And with a full-fledged majority, rather than a 50-50 split, Democrats would be able to move beyond equally balanced committees and take control of major panels, smoothing the party's path to passing legislation and acting on President Joe Biden's nominees.
"We will still have a Kyrsten Sinema and Joe Manchin problem. And if Democrats want to continue on our winning streak, we must deliver for Americans -- all Americans. We need Sen. Warnock in the senate," said Hillary Holley, executive director of Care in Action, a nonpartisan group advocating for domestic workers.
Republicans, meanwhile, are working to highlight how a divided Congress has at times worked to their advantage. Walker would only boost that advantage, they said.
"There are senators who have, in certain instances, voted with the GOP on key pieces of legislation. With a victory for Herschel Walker, it takes away that extra vote cushion from the Democrats and makes consensus building and compromise more likely," Republican strategist Julianne Thompson said.
Warnock, Walker's runoff campaigns take shape
Operatives are also cautioning voters not be complacent, reminding them of what happened last time Georgia's Senate race went into a runoff, in 2021 -- after the GOP candidates won in the first round -- and Republican voters were apathetic, leading to two flips.
"While the majority of the Senate is no longer in question, Georgia Republicans are still salty from losing the two U.S. Senate seats in 2021 and want to regain the seat," said Eric Tanenblatt, a former chief of staff to Republican Gov. Sonny Perdue.
Heading into another runoff, Warnock's campaign manager Quentin Fulks said the senator will continue to grow his coalition of support, touting Warnock's performance in urban and suburban counties where he performed better than Biden did in 2020.
"Reverend Warnock will win the runoff by continuing the strategic investments in paid communication and field organizing, continuing to hold the diverse coalition that has driven Reverend Warnock's success, and emphasizing that this race is about who is able to represent our state," Fulks said.
Warnock, on the campaign trail, has distanced himself from the national party, trying to emphasize bipartisanship instead. He often dodges questions about a possible Biden 2024 run, talks about working with Texas Sen. Ted Cruz in his stump speeches and only appeared with a couple of surrogates on the campaign trail, mainly his Georgia counterpart Sen. Jon Ossoff.
On the other hand, Walker has garnered support from multiple leading Republican senators who have sought to make the case for a Republican majority, arguing that the road led through Georgia.
Though now unable to frame the election as a fight to retake control of the Senate, Walker will now have to focus on why he is the better person to represent Georgia as hispersonal historyremains at center stage.
Sen. Raphael Warnock gives a speech at his election night party, Nov. 8, 2022, in Atlanta. Herschel Walker, Republican candidate for U.S. Senate, speaks at a campaign event, Nov. 6, 2022, in Hiram, Ga.
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"He definitely needs to focus on exactly what he's going to do if he gets elected. Instead of knocking the opponent, bringing any kind of campaign like that, focus on exactly what his plan is, what his policies would be so people can know what he would do," Melissa, a Georgia voter who supports Walker, told ABC News when asked how he could appeal to apprehensive Georgians.
Walker will also need to improve his performance in rural and urban communities. In last week's midterms, he underperformed compared to the rest of the Republican statewide ticket, drawing 200,000 fewer votes than Gov. Brian Kemp, according to the secretary of state's election results.
Kemp, who won reelection over Democrat Stacey Abrams, is lending his support to Walker's runoff bid. Kemp's ground data and analytics operation -- including paid door knocking, phones, modeling, absentee ballot program, and tracking -- will partner with the Mitch McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund (SLF), which will fund the operation at a level of "over two million dollars," SLF spox Jack Pandol told ABC News.
Thoughrunoffshave become a well-known scenario for Georgia, candidates and voters will have to navigate new rules, questions around voter apathy and a political environment that could already be looking ahead to 2024.
New voting rules add a wrinkle
Both candidates kicked off their runoff campaigns on Thursday, hoping to sustain an energized base.
Standing in front of the John Lewis Mural, Warnock continued to frame his battle against Walker as one centered more around morality rather than policy.
"This is not a race about Democrat and Republican. It's not a race of right versus the left. Fundamentally, this is a race about right and wrong. Who's right for Georgia and who's clearly wrong for Georgia," he said.
"And when it comes to that, the choice could not be more clear between me and Herschel Walker. Some things in life are complicated. This ain't one of them," he said.
Walker started his runoff campaign before a crowd of thousands in Canton, where he was joined by Texas Sen. Cruz. He invoked his famed college and professional football career.
"We're in overtime, that means we got a runoff. Hey, I was built for this," he said to cheers. "He hung around and got into this runoff and he's thinking he's gonna win. We need to prove him wrong."
Both candidates will have to make the case to their base to turnout despite Senate control being decided, battling the Thanksgiving holiday in the middle of the runoff cycle. Warnock will also have to split his time between campaigning on the trail in Georgia and fulfilling his duties in Washington.
New voters won't be able to vote in the runoff; they must have registered by Nov. 7.
In 2020, thousands of voters were able to register for the runoff after the general election, leading to a surge in voters who didn't vote in November but turned out for Democrats the following January. (State Republicans subsequently changed the rules for runoff elections, including by shortening the window when one is scheduled after a general election.)
Walker already stumbled on the voting rules while speaking with voters Sunday.
"I want you to go out and -- because you can only vote if you voted in the last time, that's what they told me. So I want you, if you voted last time, go vote for me again," Walker said.
The shorter early voting period became even shorter due to the holidays as voters also won't be able to cast their ballots on the last Saturday of the month. Georgia state law bars early voting within two days of a holiday, and Thanksgiving falls on a Thursday this year.
Warnock and Democratic party officials have now sued to try and require that Saturday of early voting, arguing that the rule about the holiday cutoff doesn't apply to runoffs.
Counties may choose to have early voting the Sunday after Thanksgiving and potentially the Tuesday and Wednesday before if preparations are completed by then.
In 2020, when Democrats secured two major victories in the state and flipped control of the U.S. Senate, candidates were forced into a nine-week runoff cycle; however, under Georgia's new voting law, this election will be held four weeks after Election Day on Dec. 6.
"Well there's no question that they looked at our victory the last time in the runoff, and sought to make it harder. But the people of Georgia pushed through those barriers during the general election. I'm calling on them to do the same thing again," Warnock told reporters Sunday.
Former President Donald Trump also looms large over the runoff after some Republicans notably blamed his vociferous claims of election fraud in 2020 for a depressed GOP base that cost the GOP two Georgia Senate seats in 2021 runoffs.
Now, Trump is expected to launcha third presidential campaignTuesday evening, more deeply inserting himself into the national conversation shortly before Georgia voters head to the polls for a second time and sparking handwringing even among allies and voters.
"You know, I'd rather see DeSantis at this point. I love Trump. I appreciate him. But I've got some mixed feelings about him coming in. I definitely would prefer that he wait to announce until this until this election is over," Steve Bolen, a Walker supporter, told ABC News. "I think that would take away attention. We got to put all of our focus on getting Herschel elected."
Given comments like that, Republican allies and critics alike are suggesting a presidential campaign launch could impede efforts to defeat Warnock.
"Of course, President Trump had said he'd be making an announcement on Nov. 15, next Tuesday. I'm advising the president to hold off until after the Georgia race," Jason Miller, a former adviser on Trump's 2016 and 2020 campaigns, said on Newsmax. "Priorities A, B and C need to be about Herschel [Walker] right now."
"[I]f Pres. Trump announces his run next week, Sen. Warnock raises twice as much money for the Georgia runoff," tweeted Michael Caputo, a former Trump administration official.
Still, runoffs are historically unpredictable, and Democrats say with such a narrow window to organize before Dec. 6, anything can happen.
Democrats who worked on the 2021 runoffs said the fact that Senate control is already decided could depress turnout on both sides, possibly exacerbating an already anticipated dropoff in turnout.
"If we're in a world where we already have control of the Senate and this is just icing on the cake, I think that you have to question, is that going to be enough of a motivating factor to get Democrats back out to vote on Dec. 6? I don't think it's a foregone conclusion to assume that they would," one senior adviser on Warnock's 2020 campaign said in an interview before Nevada's Senate race was called, adding that losing the Senate could be an "energizer" for Republicans.
"I'd say this one is even more unpredictable than the last one," said a second Democrat who worked on the 2021 runoffs. "A shorter [early vote] period is a challenge for Dems especially. Warnock will need a massive turnout and education game to make sure people vote that week."
