虽然民主党人能够避开红色浪潮根据专家的说法，共和党在这个选举周期中赢得了全国各地的胜利，但佛罗里达州却不是这样，这是一个传统的摇摆州，可能会永远变成红色。
总统候选人长期以来一直将阳光之州视为争取两党选票的主战场。但是保守派大获全胜现任共和党州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯获得59%的选票，民主党挑战者查理·克里斯特获得40%的选票，共和党参议员马尔科·卢比奥获得58%的选票，民主党众议院众议员瓦尔·德明斯获得41%的选票。
这就是为什么专家认为佛罗里达州在2022年中期选举中变红了:
新居民的涌入巩固了佛罗里达作为红色州的地位
该州最近的人口变化——特别是在新冠肺炎·疫情袭击后的几个月里——可以解释共和党在中期选举中超越佛罗里达州的原因。
根据美国人口普查局的数据，佛罗里达州是美国人口第三多的州，仅次于加利福尼亚州和德克萨斯州，2020年将有2150万居民美国人口调查局据统计，到2021年7月1日，这一数字已经增长到近2180万局。
根据世界卫生组织发布的数据，这一数字预计将在2022年增长到2200万佛罗里达人口估计会议七月。4月份，居民人数比去年12月发布的预测多3795人，反映了移民的持续增加，据美联社报道。
北佛罗里达大学公共舆论研究实验室主任、政治学助理教授迈克尔·宾德告诉美国广播公司新闻，很大一部分移民来自东北部，因为人们寻求生活方式的改变，包括更温暖的气温，或许还有他们所认同的政治和政策。
迈阿密大学政治学教授格雷戈里·科格告诉美国广播公司新闻说:“现有证据表明，在过去几个周期中，佛罗里达州增加对共和党人支持的部分原因是人们基于政治直接或间接搬到了佛罗里达州。”“这可能是对COVID政策的态度，也可能是佛罗里达州长期以来反对征收所得税的态度。”
宾德说，来自北方的人往往是中产阶级或富裕阶层、白人和老年人，这些人往往是“不成比例的共和党人”。
佛罗里达州立大学政治研究所所长、政治学副教授汉斯·哈塞尔在接受美国广播公司采访时表示:“年龄和意识形态保守主义之间有很强的相关性。”。
该州的选民登记支持这一观点。宾德说，在2018年的中期选举中，民主党的注册人数增加了1.5%，而在2022年，共和党的注册人数增加了2%。
此外，传统上蓝色的县，如迈阿密戴德县和棕榈滩县，这两个县在疫情期间出现了大规模的移民，在2022年变成了红色。虽然布劳沃德县仍然是蓝色的，但根据该州的数据，共和党的投票率大幅上升。
专家以选民登记为例说，在疫情期间，所有这些县都出现了大量移民。
“许多逃离这些国家的人往往更富裕一点，能够逃离并到达这里，”他说，并补充说，对民主党人实行社会主义和保守宗教观点的指责往往是他们投票给蓝色的威慑。
根据州选民登记数据，共和党登记选民的数量在几个周期内首次远远超过民主党登记选民。
数据显示，虽然有2，078，430名共和党人在2022年周期前登记投票，但有1，758，413名民主党登记选民和885，369名独立选民。
选民投票率可能会巩固佛罗里达州作为一个红色州的未来地位
专家说，传统的政党在选民投票率方面的行为可能也有助于保守派在佛罗里达州取得胜利。
“民主党的投票人数与共和党不同，”宾德说。“如果这是一种正常的选举周期，你可以预计共和党的投票率会增加5%或6%，就像刚刚发生的那样。”
他说，民主党人在这个选举周期的投票率“特别低”。宾德说，2018年，民主党人投票的比例在60%左右，但在2022年，这一比例约低20个百分点。与此同时，共和党人的比例低于2018年，在60%左右，但仍然能够轻松赢得该州，因为这次选民中的共和党选民略多一些。
宾德说，在迈阿密戴德县，除了在该县登记投票的共和党人增加之外，拉丁裔选民也发生了变化。
哈塞尔说，虽然古巴人传统上投票支持保守派，但民主党和来自拉丁美洲其他国家的拉美裔人之间已经“脱钩”。
科格说:“这似乎是共和党为吸引拉美裔社区而进行的长期、持续和复杂努力的结果。”。
随着来自拉丁美洲的稳定移民的继续，这一趋势可能会继续下去。哈塞尔补充说，成年人不能马上投票，但他们的孩子可以。
科格说，前国务卿希拉里·克林顿在2016年竞选总统期间“相当容易地”赢得了那里，但自那以来，民主党人“在拉丁美洲人中看到了对他们支持的真正厌恶”。
“我们已经看到共和党人在过去几个选举周期中取得了进展，”他说。“我认为民主党人可以一直依赖拉丁裔选民的假设并不成立。”
州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯于2022年11月15日访问了佛罗里达州沃尔顿堡海滩高中，宣布扩大紫星卓越学校计划。
德文谷/西北佛罗里达每日新闻通过《今日美国》网络
专家们表示，继续失去迈阿密-戴德县可能会消除民主党在未来全州选举中的胜利之路，并补充说，他们相信佛罗里达州在可预见的未来仍将是一个红色州。
科格说:“今后，佛罗里达州民主党人可能更难呼吁和获得全国民主党组织和候选人的支持，因为他们认为他们的钱花在其他地方会更好。”。
专家说，像德桑蒂斯和卢比奥这样的现任者在这次选举中有明显的优势。Binder说，民主党人可能没有出现，因为他们认为这些比赛不会有竞争力。德桑蒂斯面对克里斯特，谁担任该州州长从2007年到2011年作为共和党人，在2010年与卢比奥的参议员竞选中失利。
但是在任的优势并不能完全解释共和党所看到的巨大胜利。专家说，克里斯特没有强大的竞选资金，几乎没有机会。
“他真的没有产生太多的热情，”宾德说。
How a red wave overtook Florida midterm elections and why experts think that won't change soon
While Democrats were able tostave off a red waveof Republican wins across the country this election cycle, the same could not be said for Florida, a traditional swing state that may have permanently turned red, according to experts.
Presidential candidates have long considered the Sunshine State as prime battleground to fight for votes on either side of the aisle. Butconservatives won big, with incumbent Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis winning 59% over Democratic challenger Charlie Crist's 40% and Republican Sen. Marco Rubio garnering 58% of the vote over Democratic House Rep. Val Demings's 41%.
This is why experts believe Florida turned red during the 2022 Midterms:
An influx of new residents is cementing Florida's status as a red state
Recent population shifts in the state -- especially in the months following the onslaught of the COVID-19 pandemic -- may explain the Republican stronghold that overtook Florida during the Midterms.
Florida is the third most populated state in the nation, after California and Texas, with a tally of 21.5 million residents in 2020, according to theU.S. Census BureauBy July 1, 2021, that number had grown to nearly 21.8 million residents, according to thebureau.
That number is expected to grow to 22 million in 2022, according to data released by theFlorida Demographic Estimating Conferencein July. In April, the number of residents was 3,795 more than predicted in the forecast released last December, reflecting the continued increase in migration,according to the Associated Press.
A large portion of the migration is coming from the Northeast, as people seek lifestyle changes, including warmer temperatures and perhaps politics and policies they align with, Michael Binder, assistant professor of political science and faculty director of the University of North Florida's Public Opinion Research Lab, told ABC News.
"The available evidence suggests that part of Florida's move towards increased support for Republicans over the last few cycles has been people moving to Florida, either directly or indirectly, based on politics," Gregory Koger, a professor of political science at the University of Miami, told ABC News. "That could be attitudes on COVID policy or Florida's s long, long standing opposition to an income tax."
The people coming from the north tend to be middle class or wealthier, white, and older, a demographic that tends to be "disproportionately Republicans," Binder said.
"There's a strong correlation between age and ideological conservatism," Hans Hassell, associate professor of political science and director of Florida State University's Institute of Politics, told ABC News.
Voter registration in the state supports that notion. In the 2018 midterms, registration for Democrats was up 1.5%, while in 2022, registration for Republicans was up 2%, Binder said.
In addition, traditionally blue counties like Miami-Dade and Palm Beach -- both counties that saw a large migration during the pandemic -- flipped red in 2022. While Broward County remained blue, it saw a large increase in Republican turnout, according to state figures.
All of those counties saw large incoming migration during the pandemic, the experts said, citing voter registration.
"A lot of the people that are fleeing those countries tend to be a little bit wealthier and able to escape and get here," he said, adding that accusations of Democrats practicing socialism combined with conservative religious views are often a deterrent for them to vote blue.
The number of registered Republican voters far eclipsed Democrat registered voters for the first time in several cycles, according to state voter registration data.
While 2,078,430 Republican registered to vote ahead of the 2022 cycle, there were 1,758,413 Democrat registered voters and 885,369 independent voters, the data shows.
Voter turnout could cement Florida's future status as a red state
Traditional party behavior regarding voter turnout likely also helped the Conservatives seal their victories in Florida, the experts said.
"Democrats don't vote in the same numbers that Republicans do," Binder said. "If it's kind of the normal election cycle, you can expect a plus five or plus six Republican turnout, just straight off the bat."
Voter turnout for Democrats this election cycle was "particularly poor," he said. In 2018, the percentage of Democrats who voted measured in the low 60s percentage points, but in 2022, it was about 20 percentage points lower, Binder said, Republicans, meanwhile, turned out in lower-than-usual proportions than in 2018, in the mid-to-low 60s, but were still able to easily win the state due to there simply being quite a bit more Republican voters in the electorate this time around, he added.
In Miami-Dade, in addition to the uptick in Republicans who registered to vote in the county, there has also been a shift in the Latino vote, Binder said.
While Cubans traditionally vote Conservative, there has been a "decoupling" between the Democratic Party and Latinos from other countries throughout Latin America, Hassell said.
"That seems to be the product of a prolonged, sustained and sophisticated effort by the Republican Party to appeal to the Latino community," Koger said.
The trend will likely continue as the steady migration from Latin America continues. The adults will not be able to vote right away, but their children will, Hassell added.
Former Secretary of State Hilary Clinton won there "fairly easily" in 2016 during her run for president, Koger said, but Democrats have "seen a real aversion of their support among Latinos" since then.
"We've seen Republicans make inroads there in the last couple of election cycles," he said. "I think the assumption that Democrats can consistently rely on a Latino vote is not the case."
Continuing to lose Miami-Dade County could eliminate a Democratic path to victory in future statewide elections, the experts said, adding that they believe that Florida could remain a red state for the foreseeable future.
"Going forward it will probably harder for Florida Democrats to appeal for and receive support from national Democratic Party organizations and candidates because they believe that their money is better spent someplace else," Koger said.
Incumbents like DeSantis and Rubio had the clear advantage this election, experts said. Democrats may not have showed up because they assumed those races would not be competitive, Binder said. DeSantis was up against Crist,who served as governor of the statefrom 2007 to 2011 as a Republican and lost the 2010 race for the Senate against Rubio.
But the advantage of incumbency does not fully explain the large victories Republicans saw. Crist, who did not have a robust campaign fund, almost didn't stand a chance, the experts said.
"He didn't really engender a lot of enthusiasm," Binder said.
