根据历史书上记载的数字，2022年中期选举不太可能看起来像地震。
在任的参议员没有一个丢了工作格鲁吉亚在周二赢得了决选意味着民主党将在他们已经拥有的参议院多数席位上增加一个席位。共和党在众议院只获得了9个席位，足以通过2020年后让他们成为少数党的微弱优势来控制局面。
但在整洁的数字背后，是复杂和彻底混淆的力量，使两党都在努力治理和吸取教训。无视历史和两党期望的选举建立了一个同样不确定的未来——由两党领导人似乎都没有真正理解或完全控制的事情塑造。
“这将使我们更容易完成一些事情，”佐治亚州参议员拉斐尔·沃诺克在周二晚上庆祝他的胜利时告诉总统乔·拜登。
拜登欣然同意。但事实要复杂得多——白宫和共和党内部都认识到这一现实，他们仍在错失良机，特别是在佐治亚州的竞选中。
重大选举有时被描述为新政治时代的开始。然而，这个中期周期可能预示着六个或更多的总体动态——所有这些都将受到已经开始的不可预测的总统周期的突发奇想的影响。
这一年给拜登总统带来了分裂的政府，同时也激发了对民主党信息和能力的新的乐观情绪。它对前总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)和他选择的候选人做出了严厉的判断，但没有一个模型可以看到共和党在没有他继续控制的运动的情况下赢得关键的竞选。
矛盾仍在继续:共和党人将控制众议院，但却在为谁应该成为他们的发言人而纠结。参议院“曼钦总统”一章结束的同时，大多数立法努力也可能会停滞不前。拜登似乎更有可能竞选第二个任期，但民主党人不太清楚这是否是一件好事。
冲突延伸到国会山的新现实。无论少数党领袖凯文·麦卡锡或其他人成为众议院议长，监督和调查将主导国会议程——假设支出边缘政策不会变得无所不包。
参议院多数党领袖查克·舒默可以欢呼雀跃了，就像他周三做的那样民主党拥有第51个参议院席位“可以松一口气了”。但是，议会中的温和派和进步派此刻都感到胆子大了，因为总统的冲动在不同的时候把他带到了这两个阵营。
民主党人将主要打防守，同时希望尽可能地打进攻。尽管在选举中，战场州的选民拒绝了与特朗普结盟的候选人，但共和党人将忍不住积极与拜登斗争。
格鲁吉亚认可了一个重要的观点:候选人很重要，尤其是当赌注很高而且真实的时候。共和党参议员候选人赫歇尔·沃克(Herschel Walker)在11月和12月获得的票数都少于沃诺克，尽管今年在佐治亚州全州范围内竞选的所有其他共和党人都赢了。
“两年来，佐治亚州共和党第三次错过了一次轻松的上篮，”佐治亚州即将退休的副州长杰夫·邓肯(Geoff Duncan)周三在亚特兰大《宪法日报》(Journal-Constitution)的专栏文章中写道。
如果不是特朗普的敦促和他与特朗普的友谊，沃克几乎肯定不会为了政治牺牲他的足球名人。MAGA联盟的候选人在亚利桑那州、新罕布什尔州和宾夕法尼亚州也失去了可能获胜的参议员竞选;任何一个州的胜利都可能改变佐治亚州的局势，因为本周参议院的控制权将岌岌可危。
但将损失归咎于特朗普并不完全合理。共和党选民实际上选择了特朗普在竞争激烈的初选中支持的候选人。在佐治亚州，参议院少数党领袖米奇·麦康奈尔(Mitch McConnell)一年多前支持沃克，称他是“唯一”能够团结全党并赢得席位的候选人。
这显然是错误的。对中期“红色浪潮”将给共和党带来历史性收益的假设，以及对众议院民主党人在加利福尼亚和纽约等蓝色州安全的假设也是如此。
选举周期中值得注意的一点是，选举结果几乎没有争议。特朗普关于2020年的错误主张仍在继续-他甚至呼吁举行新的选举，同时承认这将超出宪法范围-但2022年进展顺利，只有杂志喜爱在亚利桑那州制造法律噪音关于被偷的选举。
中期选举后的相对和平是另一个不应被过度解读的数据点。民主面临的挑战依然存在，不可预测的政治未来带来了进一步的不确定性。
Georgia ends 2022 midterm cycle that challenged and confounded Washington: ANALYSIS
By the numbers recorded in the history books,the 2022 midtermsare unlikely to look seismic.
No incumbent senator lost his or her job, andGeorgia's runoff win on Tuesdaymeans Democrats will add a single seat to the Senate majority they already had. Republicans picked up only nine seats in the House, enough to take control by the mirror image of the narrow margin that left them in the minority after 2020.
But behind the tidy figures were complicated and downright confounding forces that leave both parties struggling for governing takeaways and lessons learned. An election that defied history and both parties' expectations sets up an equally uncertain future -- shaped by things that neither party's leaders seem to truly understand or fully control.
"This will make it easier for us to get some things done," Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock told President Joe Biden in celebrating his victory on Tuesday night.
Biden readily agreed. But the truth is far more complicated -- a reality recognized inside both the White House and a Republican Party still reeling from missed opportunities, particularly in that Georgia race.
Consequential elections are sometimes described as ushering in new political eras. This midterm cycle, though, may herald a half-dozen or more overarching dynamics -- all of which will be subject to the whims of an unpredictable presidential cycle that's already begun.
Supporters of Reverend Raphael Warnock attend a election night party after polls closed for the U.S. midterm runoff elections between Warnock and his Republican challenger Herschel Walker in Atlanta, on Dec. 6, 2022.
Carlos Barria/Reuters
This year brought divided government to the Biden presidency while also fueling new optimism about Democrats' messaging and capabilities. It brought harsh judgments on former President Donald Trump and his chosen candidates, yet no model that sees the GOP winning key races without the movement he continues to control.
The contradictions continue: Republicans will control the House but are wrestling with themselves over who should be their speaker. The "President Manchin" chapter of the Senate ends at the same time most legislative efforts would likely stall anyway. Biden emerges more likely to run for a second term but with less clarity among Democrats as to whether that's a good thing.
The conflicts extend to new realities on Capitol Hill. Whether Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy or someone else becomes House speaker, oversight and investigations will dominate the congressional agenda -- assuming spending brinksmanship doesn't become all-consuming.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer can exult,as he did Wednesday, that Democrats "can breathe a sigh of relief" with a 51st Senate seat. But both the moderate and progressive factions in the chamber feel emboldened at the moment -- with a president whose impulses have drawn him to both of those camps at different times.
Democrats will be mainly playing defense while wanting to play offense where they can. Republicans will be tempted to take their fights aggressively to Biden, despite elections where voters in battleground states rejected Trump-aligned candidates.
Georgia ratified an important point: Candidates matter, especially when the stakes are high and real. Republican Senate nominee Herschel Walker got fewer votes than Warnock in both November and December, even though all the other Republicans running statewide in Georgia won this year.
"For the third time in two years, the Georgia GOP missed an easy lay-up," Georgia's retiring lieutenant governor, Geoff Duncan, wrote in an Atlanta Journal-Constitution op-ed on Wednesday.
Walker almost certainly would not have sacrificed his football celebrity for politics if not for the urgings of and his friendship with Trump. MAGA-aligned candidates also lost potentially winnable Senate races in Arizona, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania; a victory in any of those states might have changed the equation in Georgia, since control of the Senate would have been at stake this week.
But blaming Trump for losses isn't totally warranted. Republican voters actually chose those candidates whom Trump backed in competitive primaries. In the case of Georgia, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell endorsed Walker more than a year ago, calling him the "only" candidate "who can unite the party" and win the seat.
That was clearly wrong. So were assumptions of a midterm "red wave" that would bring historic gains to Republicans -- and assumptions that House Democrats were safe in blue states like California and New York.
One takeaway from the election cycle that deserves notice is how little controversy surrounds the results. Trump's false claims about 2020 continue -- he's even calling for a new election while admitting that would fall outside the Constitution -- yet 2022 went smoothly, with onlyMAGA favorites in Arizona making legal noiseabout stolen elections.
The relative peace in the aftermath of the midterms is another data point that should not be over-interpreted. The challenges to democracy remain, with an unpredictable political future bringing further uncertainties.
