随着数百名民主党人本周末聚集在费城参加他们的年度冬季会议，该党准备为拜登创造一个平稳的坡道为他的连任竞选做准备有消息称，该产品预计将在几个月内推出。
民主党全国委员会(DNC)冬季会议的主要事务将在周六的会议上进行，全体成员将最终批准一项重新配置的-有点争议的-主日历受白宫削减著名的爱荷华州原因的推动，几乎肯定会失去通常是全国第一的新罕布什尔州初选，作为官方早期窗口的一部分。
许多民主党人认为拟议的变化——将佐治亚州和密歇根州加入阵容，同时利用南卡罗来纳州启动整个日程——对拜登非常有利，拜登在爱荷华州和新罕布什尔州遭受早期挫折后，在很大程度上将其2020年竞选活动的重振归功于这些州的关键投票集团。
日历调整的支持者还表示，这将允许一个更多元化的民主党选民群体，包括南部的黑人，在选择初选候选人时发挥更大、更早的作用。
但其他人，如伯尼·桑德斯的高级顾问法伊兹·沙基尔，批评新提出的日程表是一个“致命的错误”，因为，他在一份12月纽约时报专栏南卡罗来纳州“不以任何方式倾向于民主党。”
本周，民主党全国委员会将解决这一问题，拜登支持的日历可能会获得一致支持，同时该党正式宣布支持他可能的连任竞选。
总统已经多次表示他打算在2024年竞选但他还没有最终决定。
一位熟悉围绕时机讨论的民主党全国委员会成员，像这个故事中的其他人一样，被允许匿名坦率地说，他的连任公告将在几个月内发生。(白宫拒绝置评。)
即将离任的白宫办公厅主任罗恩·克莱恩周三在一个交接仪式上告诉拜登，他“期待在2024年竞选总统时站在你这边。”
虽然共和党人最近在共和党全国委员会主席和众议院议长的选举中看到他们的领导力出现内部分歧，但几位民主党全国委员会成员告诉美国广播公司，尽管拜登的支持率和民主党的支持率中等，他们准备坚定立场声明偏好另一个旗手在下一个周期。
一名成员称他们的策略为“受控团结”，因为拜登定于周五与副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯一起出席冬季会议。周四上午，一项支持拜登竞选连任的决议获得一致通过。
虽然总统预计不会在周五对该组织的讲话中做出任何正式宣布，但民主党全国委员会成员认为，新配置的初选不言自明。
如果获得批准，阵容将于2024年2月3日从南卡罗来纳州开始，随后是内华达州和新罕布什尔州于2月6日同时举办比赛，然后是佐治亚州于2月13日，最后是密歇根州于2月27日结束。
“看，如果你开始阅读这里的茶叶，你会看到总统正在运行。第一个也是最明显的信号是日历，”一名民主党全国委员会成员表示。
“最重要的是拜登会去那里，他会明确表示他和哈里斯将(在2024年)竞选，这将在周五吸收人们的兴趣，”另一名民主党全国委员会成员说，并预测整个委员会将“橡皮图章”新的提名日历，该日历此前已由规则和章程委员会同意。
“这不是公开初选的日程表。这是改选的日程表，”第三名民主党全国委员会成员说。“我确实认为这将是2024年的日历。我不认为这将是2028年的日历。
拜登的推定投标将导致几乎肯定的提名，这使得一些民主党人对他宣布的时间漠不关心。
第三位民主党全国委员会成员指出，拜登没有面临宣布2024年竞选的“压力”，因为没有其他当权派民主党人计划反对他。
其他民主党全国委员会成员预测，唐纳德·特朗普迄今为止相当低调的竞选启动可能有助于拜登从容不迫，他去年曾表示，他将在寒假期间与家人商量。
“我没有从民主党全国委员会或民主党内的其他权力掮客那里听到任何关于乔·拜登的保留意见，”一名民主党全国委员会成员说。
接受美国广播公司新闻采访的另一名成员认为，拜登宣布的时间表与他在分裂的国会中的总统议程的未来以及可能影响他候选人资格的相关因素有更大的关系，比如最近在华盛顿特区的一个旧办公室和他在特拉华州威尔明顿的家中发现的保密文件，而不是任何主要挑战者的威胁。
这位成员说，当拜登在管理联邦政府的同时进行竞选活动时，围绕他的叙述和媒体关注将发生变化。
“民主党方面没有明显的反对意见。那么，为什么不继续举办活动呢?你可以获得所有的免费媒体，并花钱来做这件事。”一名民主党全国委员会成员说。
然而，一位来自左翼的拜登潜在挑战者已经崭露头角:作家兼2020年民主党总统候选人玛丽安娜·威廉森。在过去的几周里，她考虑去新罕布什尔州和南卡罗来纳州，探索竞选的可能性。
但许多民主党全国委员会成员对此置之不理，因为威廉姆森没有党的支持，没有可比的资金，也没有来自党内基础的可比支持。
南卡罗来纳州民主党全国委员会成员卡罗尔·福勒说:“我的预期是，在拜登总统宣布不会有任何实质性的、资金充足的、知名的人与他竞选。”
一名民主党全国委员会成员表示，试图初选拜登只会削弱该党保住白宫的最终机会。
“你在竞选中削弱了他。你不会让他变得更强，”这位成员说。
然而，新罕布什尔州民主党全国委员会成员雷·巴克利(Ray Buckley)以威廉姆森竞选的机会为例，说明民主党领导人有一个“反叛候选人”，可以优化该州因失去提名席位而产生的愤怒，这表明对日历调整的焦虑对选举产生了影响。
巴克利在上周发表的一封信中写道，新的提名日历将“为一名反叛候选人创造一个机会——不管他是否严肃——他可以获得媒体的关注，并利用花岗岩·斯塔特对被(拜登的)竞选团队忽视的愤怒”。
巴克利在接受美国广播公司采访时说:“她的一些支持者已经非常清楚地表明，这是他们正在认真考虑的事情。”。
新罕布什尔州的民主党人将利用他们在民主党全国委员会冬季会议上的时间，与规则和章程委员会以及白宫的成员进行对话，讨论他们发现自己所处的“困境”:他们的国务卿不会违反州法律，该法律规定新罕布什尔州是全国第一个举行初选的州。
新罕布什尔州的反对以及佐治亚州对修改法律以适应新日历的犹豫，迫使民主党全国委员会上周投票决定延长这两个州的时间，以便它们可以满足重组后的早期州时间表中的位置要求。
但巴克利坚持认为，新罕布什尔州的民主党人没有权力违反州领导人制定的法律，即使他们受到民主党全国委员会的惩罚，并有失去代表的风险。
巴克利说:“我们希望确保我们取得成功:我们赢得了拜登-哈里斯的选票，我们赢得了州长竞选，因此我们赢得了它，我们保住了我们的国会席位，并赢得了立法机构的多数席位。”“这就是我们的关注点。”
他说，他们将继续为他们在初选前线的位置而战，几乎不期望民主党全国委员会除了新的早期提名日历之外会投票支持任何其他东西。
Democrats rally without 'any reservation' around Biden's expected 2024 campaign
As hundreds of Democrats gather in Philadelphia this weekend for their annual winter meeting, the party is primed to create a smooth on-ramp for Biden to gear up for his reelection campaign, which a source says is expected to launch within months.
The main business of the Democratic National Committee's (DNC) winter meeting will go down at a Saturday session where the full body will finally green light a reconfigured -- and somewhat controversial -- primary calendar boosted by the White House that cuts the famed Iowa causes and all but guarantees the loss of the typically first-in-the-nation New Hampshire primary as part of the official early window.
Many Democrats see the proposed changes -- adding Georgia and Michigan to the lineup while tapping South Carolina to kick-off the entire schedule -- as hyper-advantageous to Biden, who owes much of his 2020 campaign reinvigoration to key voting blocs in those states after early setbacks in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Supporters of the calendar shuffle also say it will allow a more diverse group of Democratic voters, including Black people in the South, to have a larger and earlier role in selecting primary candidates.
But others, like Sen. Bernie Sanders' senior adviser Faiz Shakir, critiqued the newly proposed calendar as a "fatal mistake" because, he wrote in a December New York Times op-ed, South Carolina "is not trending in any way toward the Democratic Party."
This week, the DNC is set to resolve the matter, with the Biden-backed calendar likely to get unanimous support at the same time the party is officially declaring their support for his likely reelection campaign.
The president has repeatedly said he intends to run in 2024 but that he hasn't definitively decided.
One DNC member familiar with discussions around timing, who like others in this story was granted anonymity to speak candidly, said his reelection announcement would occur within a few months. (The White House declined to comment.)
Outgoing White House chief of staff Ron Klain told Biden on Wednesday, at a transition ceremony, that he "look[s] forward to being on your side when you run for president in 2024."
And while Republicans recently saw internal fissures over their leadership on public display in the elections for Republican National Committee chair and House speaker, several DNC members tell ABC they are preparing to stand firm, despite Biden's middling approval numbers and the Democratic base's stated preference for another standard-bearer in the next cycle.
One member called their strategy "controlled unity" as Biden is scheduled to appear at the winter meeting on Friday along with Vice President Kamala Harris. On Thursday morning, a resolution was unanimously passed supporting Biden running for reelection.
While the president is expected to stop short of making any formal announcement in his remarks to the group on Friday, DNC members believe the newly configured primary speaks for itself.
If approved, the line-up would begin with South Carolina on Feb. 3, 2024, followed by Nevada and New Hampshire hosting their contests concurrently on Feb. 6, then Georgia on Feb. 13 and ending with Michigan on Feb. 27.
"Look, if you start to read the tea leaves here, you'll see that the president is running. The first and most obvious signal of that is the calendar," said one DNC member.
"The top line is Biden's going to come there, he's going to make it clear that he and Harris are running [in 2024], that's going to soak up the interest level on Friday," another DNC member said, predicting that the entire committee will then "rubber stamp" the new nominating calendar which was previously agreed upon by the Rules and Bylaws Committee.
"This is not a calendar for an open primary. This is a calendar for reelect," a third DNC member said. "I do think this will be the calendar for '24. I do not think it will be the calendar for 2028.
Biden's presumptive bid will result in an almost certain nomination, which makes some Democrats indifferent about the timing of his announcement.
The third DNC member noted that Biden faces "no pressure" to announce a 2024 campaign as no other establishment Democrat is planning to oppose him.
Other DNC members predicted that Donald Trump's fairly low-key campaign kickoff so far could be contributing to Biden taking his time, having said last year that he would confer with his family over the winter holidays.
"I have heard from no one within the DNC or other power brokers within the Democratic Party any reservation about Joe Biden," one of the DNC members said.
Another of the members who spoke with ABC News theorized the timeline for Biden's announcement has more to do with the future of his presidential agenda with a divided Congress and related factors that might influence his candidacy -- like the recent discovery of classified documents retained while at of office at an old office in Washington, D.C., and at his Wilmington, Delaware, home -- than any threat of a primary challenger.
This member said that the narrative and media attention will change around Biden when he is "encumbered" by running a campaign at the same time that he is running the federal government.
"There's no perceived opposition on the Democratic side. So why not just continue to do events, and you get all the free media and are spending money to do it?" one of the DNC members said.
However, one potential challenger to Biden from the left has made herself known: author and 2020 Democratic presidential candidate Marianne Williamson. In the last few weeks, she's teased possible trips to the early nominating states of New Hampshire and South Carolina to explore the option of running.
But many DNC members brushed that aside, given Williamson is without party backing, comparable funds and comparable support from the party's base.
"My expectation is that after President Biden announces that there won't be any substantive, well-funded, well-known people running against him," South Carolina DNC member Carol Fowler said.
One of the DNC members said that attempting to primary Biden would only serve to weaken the party's ultimate chance to keep the White House.
"You undermine him in the campaign. You don't make him stronger," this member said.
New Hampshire DNC member Ray Buckley, however, cited the chance of a Williamson campaign as an example for Democratic leaders of an "insurgent candidate" who could optimize the state's anger at losing its nominating slot, suggesting the angst over the calendar shakeup had electoral ramifications.
The new nominating calendar will "create an opening for an insurgent candidate — serious or not — who can garner media attention and capitalize on Granite Stater's anger about being passed over by [Biden's] campaign," Buckley wrote in a letter published last week.
"Some of her supporters have made that very clear, that that is something that they are heavily thinking about," Buckley said in an interview with ABC News.
New Hampshire Democrats will use their time at the DNC winter meeting to engage in conversations with members of the Rules and Bylaws Committee and the White House about the "predicament" they've found themselves in: where their secretary of state will not breach state law, which mandates New Hampshire be the first in the nation to hold a primary election.
Opposition from New Hampshire -- along with hesitation in Georgia about working to change its laws to accommodate a new calendar -- forced a DNC committee to vote last week on an extension for the two states so that they might meet the requirements of their spots in the restructured early state schedule.
But Buckley maintains that New Hampshire Democrats do not have the power to break the law instituted by state leaders, even if they are punished by the DNC and are at risk of losing delegates.
"We want to make sure that we are successful: that we carry the state for the Biden-Harris ticket and that we pick up the governor's race so we gain it, we hold onto our congressional seats and gain the majorities in the legislature," Buckley said. "That's what our focus is."
He said they'll continue to fight for their spot at the front of the primary line with little expectation that the DNC at large will vote for anything other than the new early nominating calendar.
