美国人对总统缺乏信心乔·拜登和他的党进入2023国情咨文地址。然而，大多数人也对他们的共和党对手缺乏信心，美国广播公司新闻/华盛顿邮报的一项新民意调查发现，共和党在两个方面面临风险，债务上限辩论和对所谓联邦对保守派偏见的调查。
拜登自己也面临着深刻的挑战，包括创纪录的经济不满和疲软的就业批准。从基础设施到处方药价格，很少有人相信他在明天的演讲中可能会取得的一系列成就。
公众在债务上限辩论中站在拜登一边，广泛支持将债务支付和联邦支出作为单独的问题处理，同时广泛担心违约的影响。共和党领导层还面临着对其调查联邦机构反保守偏见的怀疑;大多数人认为这是企图获得政治加分，而不是合法的调查。
在其他问题上，虽然拜登呼吁国会延长对攻击性武器的长期禁令，但公众现在在这个问题上有分歧:47%的人支持这样的禁令，51%的人反对。这反映了自2019年以来支持率下降了9个百分点，鉴于最近的枪支暴力事件，这令人惊讶，但也证实了其他数据。
在国际上，这项由ABC开展的调查兰格研究协会认为美国在乌克兰与俄罗斯的战争中“做得太多”的感觉大幅上升——33%的人这样说，高于去年春天的14%。尽管如此，仍有约60%的人认为美国做得合适(40%)或太少(19%，低于武器发货量飙升时的37%)。
共和党和保守派认为美国做得太多的转变分别上升了32和30个百分点。相比之下，民主党和自由党的非重大变化分别为+5%和+6%。
还有对国家领导层的信心问题。如下所述，非常缺乏信心，68%至72%的美国人对拜登、新当选的共和党众议院议长凯文·麦卡锡和他们在国会的两党表示很少或没有信心。
债务辩论
拜登在一个紧迫而有争议的问题上有广泛的优势，债务上限。只有26%的美国人接受麦卡锡的立场，即只有在政府同意削减联邦支出的情况下，国会才应该允许政府偿还债务。相反，有65%的人支持拜登的观点，即债务偿付和联邦支出应该分开处理。
即使在共和党人当中，也只有不到一半——48%——支持将债务偿还与削减联邦支出结合起来。这一比例在无党派人士中降至22%，在民主党人中降至10%。
这些结果的背后是对违约后果的广泛担忧:82%的人非常或有点担心政府违约会损害经济。这包括大多数人，53%，在规模的顶端，“非常”关注。
值得注意的是，这种担忧是两党共有的——政界约80%的成年人担心违约的经济影响，其中共和党人的担忧程度最高，达到59%。
也就是说，大约三分之二的美国人赞成单独讨论债务上限和联邦支出，不管他们对不付款的影响是多还是少感到担忧。
信心
更广泛地说，调查显示了一个现在普遍存在的结果:公众对经济极度不满，两极分化严重，对两党领导人都没有信心。这些态度是基于这样一个事实，正如周日报道的那样，41%的人说，自从总统上任以来，他们的情况变得更糟了，这是37年来的最高民调。
68%至31%的公众对拜登为国家的未来做出正确决策表示部分或完全没有信心。国会中的民主党人也有类似的70%对28%的支持率。但对麦卡锡来说更糟——71 %- 19%的人对他的领导缺乏信心。他的政党的支持率是72-25%。
武器化
除了债务上限辩论之外，共和党在调查新成立的众议院司法特别小组委员会关于联邦政府武器化的所谓联邦机构反保守派偏见时面临阻力。美国人以20个百分点的优势，56%对36%，将调查视为“企图获得政治分数”，而不是合法的调查。
事实上，尽管观点高度党派化，即使在共和党人中间，34%的人认为武器化调查是为了获得政治分数，57%的人认为这是一次合法的调查。保守派的结果几乎相同。
共和党的部分问题是对其前提的广泛质疑。相对较少的美国人(28%)认为联邦机构事实上对保守派有偏见。11%的人认为他们对自由主义者有偏见;另有11%的志愿者表示他们对两者都有偏见。42%的多数人认为联邦机构对任何一方都没有偏见。
在保守派中，55%的人认为联邦机构对他们有偏见。认为自己有些保守的人中有47%，认为自己非常保守的人中有66%(所有成年人中有15%)。
攻击性武器
尽管拜登已经开始了新的努力禁止攻击性武器公众对这一问题的观点现在分歧很大:47%的人支持禁令，51%的人反对。这反映了自2019年9月美国广播公司/邮报民意调查以来，对攻击性武器禁令的支持下降了9个百分点，反对上升了10个百分点。(昆尼皮亚克大学去年7月的民意调查结果大致相似，49%对45%。)
攻击性武器禁令的支持率只有一次这么低，2015年12月的结果是45-53%;那次投票和这次投票是仅有的两次超过50%的人反对禁令的投票。自1995年以来的大多数其他民意调查中，大多数人支持攻击性武器禁令，1999年5月达到79%的峰值。就在2018年4月，这一比例为62%。
自2019年以来，对攻击性武器禁令的支持度下降，这在各个群体中普遍存在。需要对这个问题进行更详细的研究来评估其原因，但其他研究提供了线索。在皮尤研究中心去年的一项民意调查中，公众对于让人们更难获得枪支是否会减少大规模枪击事件存在分歧。在皮尤的一项仅针对18岁以下儿童家长的研究中，不到一半(45%)的人认为攻击性武器禁令将非常或非常有效地防止校园枪击事件。
造诣
总统们通常会在国情咨文中吹嘘他们的成就。这可能很难说服:只有36%的美国人认为拜登作为总统已经完成了很多或相当多的工作;62%的人说他成就不多或一无所成。在2018年1月的美国广播公司/邮报民意调查中，特朗普也处于类似的境地。
拜登在明天的讲话中可能会提出一系列完全不同的问题，但他也没有得到多少好评。失业率从拜登上任时的6.3%下降到现在的3.4%(1969年以来的最低水平)，经济上个月增加了517，000个就业岗位——但60-34%的公众表示，他没有在“在你的社区创造更多好工作岗位”方面取得进展。
其他努力大多尚未落地，这使得拜登很难邀功。尽管他在2021年11月签署了庞大的基础设施法案，但60-32%的公众表示拜登没有在“改善你所在社区的道路和桥梁”方面取得进展——也许是因为许多实际工作尚未完成。
更多:拜登吹捧60亿美元的铁路隧道更换，强调基础设施法
同样，拜登在8月签署的立法包括购买电动汽车的最高7500美元的税收抵免。但是它今年才生效;到目前为止，56-26%的公众认为拜登在“让电动汽车更实惠”方面没有取得进展。(相当多的18%的人尚未决定。)
最后，尽管采取措施降低享受医疗保险的人的处方药价格，但接近47-30%的公众认为拜登在“降低处方药成本”方面没有取得进展，23%的人不确定。同样，该法案的一些条款将于今年生效;其他的还需要很多年。
这项ABC新闻/华盛顿邮报民意调查于2023年1月27日至2月1日通过座机和手机以英语和西班牙语在全国随机抽样的1003名成年人中进行。结果的误差为抽样误差3.5个百分点，包括设计效果。党派分歧是26-25-40%，民主党-共和党-无党派。参见PDF完整的结果，图表和表格。
这项调查由兰格研究协会为美国广播公司新闻制作，由马里兰州洛克维尔的Abt协会进行抽样和数据收集。查看调查方法的详细信息这里。
Americans have low confidence in leaders, GOP at risk in political disputes: POLL
Americans expressed scant confidence in President Joe Biden and his party heading into the 2023 State of the Union address. Yet wide majorities also lack faith in their Republican counterparts, and a new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds the GOP at risk on two fronts, the debt ceiling debate and its inquiry into alleged federal bias against conservatives.
Biden faces deep challenges of his own, including record economic discontent and weak job approval. Few give him credit for a range of accomplishments he may try to claim in tomorrow's address, from infrastructure to prescription drug prices.
The public takes Biden's side in the debt ceiling debate, with broad support for handling debt payments and federal spending as separate issues, along with extensive worry about the impacts of a default. The GOP leadership also faces skepticism about its probe of anti-conservative bias in federal agencies; most see this as an attempt to score political points, not a legitimate inquiry.
Among other issues, while Biden is calling on Congress to renew the long-expired ban on assault weapons, the public now is divided on the question: Forty-seven percent support such a ban, 51% oppose it. That reflects a 9-point drop in support since 2019, surprising given recent gun violence but confirming other data.
Internationally, the survey, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, finds a substantial rise in the sense that the United States is doing "too much" to assist Ukraine in its war with Russia – 33% say so, up from 14% last spring. Still, that leaves about six in 10 saying the United States is doing the right amount (40%) or too little (19%, down from 37% as weapons shipments have soared).
The shift toward saying the U.S. is doing too much peaks among Republicans and conservatives, up 32 and 30 percentage points, respectively. Those compare with non-significant changes of +5 points among Democrats and +6 points among liberals.
There's also the issue of confidence in the country's leadership. As detailed below, it's sorely lacking, with 68 to 72% of Americans expressing little or no confidence in Biden, newly elected Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and both their parties in Congress.
Debt debate
Biden has a wide advantage on one urgent and contentious issue, the debt ceiling. Just 26% of Americans adopt McCarthy's position that Congress should allow the government to pay its debts only if the administration agrees to cut federal spending. A broad 65% instead align with Biden's view that the issues of debt payment and federal spending should be handled separately.
Even among Republicans, fewer than half – 48% – support coupling debt payment with cuts in federal spending. That drops to 22% among independents and 10% of Democrats.
Underlying these results is broad worry about the consequences of default: A vast 82% are very or somewhat worried that a government default would damage the economy. That includes a majority, 53%, at the top end of the scale, "very" concerned.
Notably, this concern is bipartisan – about eight in 10 adults across the political spectrum are concerned about the economic impacts of a default, and being very concerned peaks among Republicans, at 59%.
That said, about two-thirds of Americans favor separate discussion of the debt limit and federal spending regardless of whether they're more or less worried about the impacts of nonpayment.
Confidence
Most broadly, the survey shows a now-common result: A public with deep economic dissatisfaction, sharp polarization and little faith in leaders on either side of the aisle. These attitudes are informed by the fact that, as reported Sunday, 41% say they've gotten worse off since the president took office, a high in polling back 37 years.
The public by an extensive 68-31% expresses just some or no confidence in Biden to make the right decisions for the country's future. It's a similar 70-28% for the Democrats in Congress. But it's even worse for McCarthy – a vast 71-19% lack confidence in his leadership. And it's 72-25% for his party.
Weaponization
In addition to the debt ceiling debate, the GOP faces headwinds in its inquiry into alleged anti-conservative bias in federal agencies by the newly created House Judiciary Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government. Americans by a 20-point margin, 56-36%, see the probe as "an attempt to score political points" rather than a legitimate investigation.
Indeed, while views are highly partisan, even among Republicans, 34% see the weaponization inquiry as an attempt to score political points, and a tepid 57% think it's a legitimate investigation. Results among conservatives are almost identical.
Part of the GOP's problem is widespread doubt about its premise. Relatively few Americans, 28%, think federal agencies in fact are biased against conservatives. Eleven percent think they're biased against liberals; an additional 11% volunteer that they're biased against both. A plurality, 42%, think federal agencies are not biased against either group.
Among conservatives themselves, 55% think federal agencies are biased against them. That's 47% among people who define themselves as somewhat conservative, rising to 66% of those who say they're very conservative (15% of all adults).
Assault weapons
While Biden has undertaken a new push to ban assault weapons, public views on the issue are now closely divided: Forty-seven percent support a ban, 51% oppose it. That reflects a 9-point drop in support for an assault weapons ban, and a 10-point rise in opposition, since last measured in an ABC/Post poll in September 2019. (Results were roughly similar, 49-45%, in a Quinnipiac University poll last July.)
Support for an assault weapons ban was this low just once before, a 45-53% result in December 2015; that poll, and this one, are the only two in which more than 50% have opposed a ban. In most other polls since 1995, majorities have supported an assault weapons ban, peaking at 79% in May 1999. It was 62% as recently as April 2018.
The decline in support for an assault weapons ban since 2019 is broadly based across groups. It would take a study focused in more detail on the issue to assess its reasons, but other studies provide clues. In a Pew Research Center poll last year, the public divided on whether or not making it harder to get guns would reduce mass shootings. And in a Pew study only among parents of children under 18, fewer than half, 45%, thought an assault weapons ban would be extremely or very effective at preventing shootings in schools specifically.
Accomplishments
Presidents typically tout their accomplishments in a State of the Union address. It can be a tough sell: Just 36% of Americans think Biden has accomplished a great deal or good amount as president; 62% say he's accomplished not very much or nothing. In an ABC/Post poll in January 2018, Trump was in a similar boat.
Nor does Biden get much credit for a disparate list of items he might raise in tomorrow's address. Unemployment has dropped from 6.3% when Biden took office to 3.4% now (a low since 1969) and the economy added a robust 517,000 jobs last month – yet the public by 60-34% says he has not made progress "creating more good jobs in your community."
Other efforts largely have yet to hit the ground, making it difficult for Biden to claim credit. Despite the huge infrastructure bill he signed into law in November 2021, the public by 60-32% says Biden has not made progress "improving roads and bridges in your community" – perhaps because much of the actual work is yet to be done.
Similarly, legislation Biden signed in August includes a tax credit up to $7,500 for buying an electric vehicle. But it took effect just this year; so far, the public by 56-26% says Biden has not made progress "making electric vehicles more affordable." (A substantial 18% are undecided.)
Lastly, despite measures to lower prescription drug prices for people on Medicare, the public by a closer 47-30% says Biden has not made progress "lowering prescription drug costs," with 23% unsure. Again, some of the bill's provisions take effect this year; others are years off.
This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Jan. 27-Feb. 1, 2023, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,003 adults. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 percentage points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 26-25-40%, Democrats-Republicans-independents. See the PDF for full results, charts and tables.
The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates, with sampling and data collection by Abt Associates of Rockville, Maryland. See details on the survey's methodology here.
