华盛顿-着眼于2024年，乔·拜登总统将展示他的选举本周在必胜的宾夕法尼亚州，而不是通常的白宫，公布了一年的预算计划。
拜登周四前往费城是一个迹象，表明总统的预算提案是与选民联系的更大政治努力的一部分。他告诉他们赋税对富人征税可以减少联邦赤字，避免削减社会保障和医疗保险等受欢迎的项目。
白宫预算计划将是一份“如果”文件，旨在告诉选民，如果民主党牢牢控制白宫和国会，联邦政府可以做什么。目前，众议院的共和党多数反对拜登的大部分想法。
总统在周一的讲话中暗示，对富人增税将是他的预算计划的核心，并宣布其中一项条款将针对亿万富翁。
作为普通美国工人的代表，他对一个消防队员团体说，“我们所做的很多事情都是关于你被公平对待的权利，尊严和尊重。”
“其中一部分是建立公平的税收制度。他在对国际消防员协会的讲话中说:“如果我们开始让人们支付公平的份额，我们就可以实现所有这些改善，并仍然可以削减赤字。”。
民主党人和共和党人现在都在努力向公众展示哪个政党在财政上最负责任。这是一个关键的考验，因为白宫和国会将需要在今年夏天同意提高政府的借款权限，否则美国可能会违约，并使经济陷入严重衰退。
拜登在上个月的国情咨文和最近的其他演讲中为他即将出台的预算奠定了基础。他承诺在10年内削减2万亿美元的赤字，加强社会保障和医疗保险，并限制对收入超过40万美元的人增税。
他的计划在某些方面比他在2021年提出的计划更加雄心勃勃，当时他的预算将在10年内相对于预测减少1万亿美元的债务。
众议院议长凯文·麦卡锡(R-California)呼吁让美国走上平衡预算的道路，同时保持社会保障和医疗保险不变。但麦卡锡一直对共和党如何做到这一点保持扑克脸。众议院共和党人一直在努力凝聚他们自己的预算提案，并且不太可能公布蓝图，除非并且直到他们有218票的多数票批准它。
极右翼的自由核心小组(Freedom Caucus)设定了自己的目标，将提出优先事项，将支出降至2022财年的水平，并使联邦预算走上平衡之路。它推动这些政策，作为让麦卡锡成为众议院议长的旷日持久的斗争的一部分，但他们的计划将需要痛苦的削减，这对其他共和党人来说太严重了。
麦卡锡在上周的简短发言中表示，众议院共和党人可能需要两个月才能提出预算提案，他告诉美联社:“我们因为总统而被推了下来。”
因此，国会共和党人本周将强调拜登将在预算提案中概述的增税措施，押注他们的观点将在通胀继续冲击消费者口袋的时候动摇选民。这是根据共和党助手谁坚持匿名讨论他们的战略。
他们说，对共和党人特别有帮助的是，拜登上周直截了当地说他的计划是“我将提高一些税收。”
“他们对赤字或债务没有任何担忧，”共和党参议员约翰·图恩(John Thune)周一表示。“这是关于增加税收和壮大政府。预算大概就是这么做的。”
宾夕法尼亚州为这个国家的两种对立的意识形态愿景提供了一个坚实的考验。拜登在2020年以大约一个百分点的优势赢得了该州，这显然是一场险胜。他周四的露面将是他就任总统以来的第23次出访。
在2022年宾夕法尼亚州参议院竞选中，尽管选民担心美国经济与高通胀挂钩，但民主党人约翰·费特曼(John Fetterman)以大约5个百分点的优势获胜。
白宫新闻秘书郭佳欣·让-皮埃尔说，宾夕法尼亚州非常“贴近拜登的心”，这位出生在斯克兰顿的总统将宾夕法尼亚州视为继特拉华州之后的“第二故乡”，他曾在特拉华州担任参议员。
当拜登前往宾夕法尼亚州和其他地方时，让-皮埃尔说，“这是总统与美国人民直接对话的机会。”
除了税收之外，共和党议员还瞄准了白宫进一步削减赤字的承诺，指出民主党人在拜登总统任期的前两年通过了大规模支出措施。根据一位共和党助手的说法，特别是，共和党参议员计划证明，在政府收入已经如此高的情况下，民主党人应该削减或减少项目，而不是增加税收来支付更多的支出。
保守的美国第一政策研究所所长吉姆·卡特表示，国会通常会忽视总统预算，他预计拜登的计划更多的是一份“自由信息文件”
“联邦政府没有收入问题，”卡特说。"它存在支出问题，而乔·拜登的预算将无助于遏制这一问题."
众议院预算委员会主席朱迪·阿灵顿(R-Texas)上个月公布了一份可能削减支出超过7500亿美元的清单。首要任务是废除拜登提供部分学生债务豁免的行政命令，这将为联邦国库恢复约4000亿美元。
阿林顿还包括撤销与他所谓的“觉醒”议程相关的资金，因为共和党的文化信息已经与经济融为一体。他将从环保局削减600亿美元用于环境正义项目，并收回360万美元用于扩展米歇尔·奥巴马在佐治亚州的足迹。
无党派的国会预算办公室主任菲利普·世格尔(Phillip Swagel)周一发布了指导意见，称预计赤字需要在未来十年内削减5万亿美元，以达到50年的历史平均水平。
“将基本赤字恢复到历史平均水平不是CBO的建议，”Swagel写道。
正如Swagel概述的那样，政治权衡是显而易见的。通过取消对资助社会保障的工资税的限制，可以筹集约6700亿至1.2万亿美元。但这将是一种增税。共和党反对增税，增税也将违反民主党人拜登只对收入超过40万美元的人增税的承诺。
Biden will buck tradition and unveil budget in Pennsylvania
WASHINGTON --With an eye on 2024, President Joe Biden will showcase hiselection-year budget plan this week in must-win Pennsylvania rather than the usual White House setting.
Biden's trip to Philadelphia on Thursday is a sign that the president's budget proposal is part of a bigger political push to connect with voters. He's telling them thattaxeson the wealthy can reduce federal deficits and spare cuts to popular programs such as Social Security and Medicare.
The White House budget plan will be a “what if” document, aimed at telling voters what the federal government could do if Democrats were solidly in control of the White House and Congress. Right now, the Republican majority in the House opposes most of Biden's ideas.
The president hinted in a Monday speech that tax increases on the wealthy will be at the core of his budget plan, declaring that one provision will targets billionaires.
Addressing a firefighters group as representatives of everyday, working Americans, he said, “Much of what we’re doing is about your right to be treated fairly, with dignity and with respect."
“Part of that is making a tax system that's fair. We can make all these improvements and still cut the deficit if we start making people pay a fair share," he said in his remarks to the International Association of Fire Fighters.
Democrats and Republicans are jockeying now to show the public which party is the most fiscally responsible. It's a key test as the White House and Congress will need to agree to raise the government's borrowing authority this summer, or else the U.S. could default and send the economy into a severe recession.
Biden laid the groundwork for his upcoming budget in his State of the Union address last month and in other recent speeches. He's pledged to trim deficits by a combined $2 trillion over 10 years, strengthen Social Security and Medicare and limit tax increases to people earning more than $400,000.
His plan is in some ways far more ambitious than what he proposed in 2021, when his budget would have reduced the debt by $1 trillion over 10 years relative to projections.
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., has called for putting the country on a path to a balanced budget, while leaving Social Security and Medicare untouched. But McCarthy has kept a poker face on how the GOP could do that. House Republicans have struggled to coalesce behind a budget proposal of their own, and are unlikely to release a blueprint unless and until they have 218 votes for a majority to approve it.
The hard-right Freedom Caucus, setting down its own marker, is due to present its priorities that would roll spending back to fiscal 2022 levels and put the federal budget on a path toward balance. It pushed for those policies as part of the drawn-out fight to make McCarthy House speaker, but their plan would require painful cuts that are too severe for other Republicans.
In brief remarks last week, McCarthy said it could be two months before the House Republicans have a budget proposal, telling The Associated Press: “We got pushed behind because of the president."
So instead, congressional Republicans this week will highlight the tax increases that Biden will outline in his budget proposal, betting that their arguments will sway voters at a time when inflation continues to hit consumers' pockets. That's according to GOP aides who insisted on anonymity to discuss their strategy.
Especially helpful to Republicans, they say, was Biden saying outright of his plans last week that “I’m gonna raise some taxes.”
“There's nothing about them that has any concern about deficits or debt,” Sen. John Thune, R-S.D., said on Monday. “It's about raising taxes and growing government. That's probably what the budget will do.”
Pennsylvania makes for a solid test of the two competing ideological visions for the country. Biden won the state by roughly a percentage point in 2020, a decidedly narrow victory. His appearance Thursday will be his 23rd trip since becoming president.
In the 2022 Pennsylvania Senate race, Democrat John Fetterman won by roughly five points despite voters’ concerns about the U.S. economy tied to high inflation.
White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Pennsylvania is very “close to Biden’s heart” and that the president, who was born in Scranton, sees it as a “second home” after Delaware, where he served as a senator.
When Biden travels to Pennsylvania and elsewhere, Jean-Pierre said, “It’s an opportunity for the president to talk directly to the American people.”
Besides taxes, GOP lawmakers are taking aim at the White House pledge to further reduce the deficit, pointing at the massive spending measures passed by Democrats during the first two years of Biden’s presidency. In particular, GOP senators plan to make the case that with the government's income so high already, the Democrats should be cutting or reducing programs rather than raising taxes to pay for even more spending, according to one of the Republican aides.
Jim Carter, a director at the conservative America First Policy Institute, said that Congress typically ignores presidential budgets and he expects Biden's plan to be more of a “liberal messaging document.”
“The federal government does not have a revenue problem,” Carter said. “It has a spending problem, and Joe Biden’s budget will do nothing to curb it.”
House Budget Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington, R-Texas, put out a list of more than $750 billion in possible spending cuts last month. Atop the list was repealing Biden's executive order providing some student debt forgiveness, which would restore roughly $400 billion to federal coffers.
Arrington also included rescinding money tied to what he called a “woke” agenda, as the GOP's cultural messaging has merged with the economic. He would eliminate $60 billion from the EPA that would go for environmental justice programs and get back $3.6 million meant to extend the Michelle Obama Trail in Georgia.
Phillip Swagel, director of the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, issued guidance on Monday saying that projected deficits would need to be cut by $5 trillion during the next decade to match the 50-year historical average.
“Returning primary deficits to their historical average is not a recommendation by CBO,” Swagel wrote as a caveat.
As Swagel outlined it, the political tradeoffs are clear. Some $670 billion to $1.2 trillion could be raised by removing limits on the payroll taxes that fund Social Security. But that would be a tax increase. The GOP opposes tax hikes, and the increase would also violate Democrat Biden's promise to only raise taxes on those earning more than $400,000.
