这对前总统唐纳德·特朗普的惊人指控在纽约市是创造历史的,尽管目前还有很多未知关于他面临的刑事指控。
除了法律影响,特朗普被正式指控犯罪可能会改变美国的前景2024年共和党总统候选人的领域仍在形成——要么团结由他的“深度国家”和“报复”言论引发的初选选民,要么对特朗普的竞争对手展开前所未有的批评。
起诉书本身不是取消资格,法律上讲。专家告诉美国广播公司新闻,美国宪法并不阻止受到起诉或刑事调查的人竞选白宫,因此尽管受到起诉,这位前总统仍然可以连任——即使导致定罪,也仍然有资格参选,尽管存在潜在的监禁等实际障碍。
虽然起诉书仍处于密封状态,但特朗普一直在接受曼哈顿地区检察官的调查,原因是他向成人电影女演员斯托米·丹尼尔斯支付了13万美元,以阻止她公开恋情,特朗普对此予以否认。
在本月早些时候的保守政治行动会议(CPAC)上,川普说他将“绝对”继续下去如果他的总统竞选被起诉,这实际上可能是他复出竞选的一个福音,他用复仇的语言来描述。
“2016年,我宣布,‘我是你的声音’,”川普告诉CPAC的与会者。“今天,我补充一句,‘我是你的战士。我是你的法官。而对于那些被冤枉和背叛的人,‘我就是你的报应。’"
鉴于特朗普利用其支持者愤怒的历史,很容易想象这一指控不仅会成为他在全国各地露面的掌声,而且会成为促进筹款的工具——尽管它也可能将更谨慎的捐助者转移到其他候选人身上。
“我甚至不会考虑离开,”川普在CPAC告诉记者。“这可能会提高我的数字。”
特朗普的法律团队公开附和了这一观点。
“如果他们提起诉讼,我相信这将使他进入白宫,”乔·塔科皮纳在起诉前说。
即使在曼哈顿大陪审团宣布之前,起诉书对其他主要共和党人来说也是一块试金石。众议院议长凯文·麦卡锡等人谴责这是迫害,但并不是每个人都如此有力地参与进来。
另一种可能性是,起诉书可能会鼓励共和党总统候选人更自由地辩称,选民应该引导该党走向新的领导。
据美国广播公司报道,佛罗里达州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯私下表示,他将在未来几个月内发起自己的竞选活动两人都谴责了特朗普的指控在它被宣布并抨击特朗普作为政治家的潜在责任之前。
“听着,我不知道付钱给一个色情明星封口费以确保对某种所谓的事件保持沉默会有什么后果。我只是不能说,”德桑蒂斯说。(特朗普已否认有不当行为,包括与丹尼尔斯有染;他的律师说他付给她的钱类似于敲诈。)
然而,到目前为止,大多数已宣布和潜在的候选人在批评前总司令时都非常小心,可能是因为害怕疏远特朗普的支持者——这是选民中仍有影响力的一部分。
根据CNN最近的一项民意调查,对于那些计划在2024年共和党总统初选或党团会议中投票的人来说,40%的人最有可能支持特朗普。
不过,他还有其他法律纠纷。
这一起诉只是针对特朗普的一系列调查中的第一个重大进展。除了曼哈顿地区检察官阿尔文·布拉格(Alvin Bragg)的案件,特别顾问杰克·史密斯目前正在调查川普参与1月6日袭击美国国会大厦的情况,以及川普卸任后对机密材料的处理。
佐治亚州富尔顿县的检察官也一直在调查特朗普及其盟友推翻佐治亚州2020年选举结果的努力。
如果起诉书和指控堆积如山,那么特朗普分散了共和党议程的注意力——或者更糟糕的是,有可能将民主党人赶出华盛顿——的说法可能会更容易提出。
Trump's indictment could mark turning point in 2024 campaign, but not how he predicts: ANALYSIS
The bombshell indictment of former President Donald Trump in New York City is history-making, even as much remains currently unknown about the criminal accusations he faces.
Beyond the legal implications, Trump being formally accused of a crime could change the outlook for the still-forming field of Republican presidential candidates in 2024 -- either rallying primary voters primed by his talk of the "deep state" and "retribution" or opening up an unprecedented line of criticism for Trump's rivals.
The indictment itself isn't disqualifying, legally speaking. The U.S. Constitution doesn't prevent people under indictment or criminal investigation from running for the White House, experts have told ABC News, so the former president could still be reelected despite the indictment -- and would still be eligible even if it leads to a conviction, regardless of practical obstacles like potential incarceration.
While the indictment remains under seal, Trump had been under investigation by the Manhattan district attorney over a $130,000 payment he made to adult film actress Stormy Daniels to keep her from going public with a claim of an affair, which he denies.
At the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) earlier this month, Trump said he would "absolutely" continue on with his presidential bid if indicted and suggested it could actually be a boon to his comeback campaign, which he's describing in the language of revenge.
"In 2016, I declared, 'I am your voice,'" Trump told CPAC attendees. "Today, I add, 'I am your warrior. I am your justice.' And for those who have been wronged and betrayed, 'I am your retribution.'"
Given Trump's history of capitalizing on the outrage of his supporters, it's easy to imagine that this indictment will not only become an applause line as he makes appearances across the country but also that this could serve as a tool to boost fundraising -- though it may also shift warier donors to other candidates.
"I wouldn't even think about leaving," Trump told reporters at CPAC. "Probably it will enhance my numbers."
That's a sentiment publicly echoed by Trump's legal team.
"If they bring this case, I believe it will catapult him into the White House," Joe Tacopina said prior to the indictment.
Even before it was handed down by a Manhattan grand jury, the indictment was something of a litmus test for other leading Republicans. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and others decried it as persecution, but not everyone has weighed in so forcefully.
Another possibility is that the indictment may embolden GOP presidential hopefuls to more freely argue that voters ought to steer the party in the direction of new leadership.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis -- who, ABC News reported, has privately indicated he'll launch his own campaign in the coming months -- both denounced Trump's indictment before it was announced and swiped at Trump's potential liabilities as a politician.
"Look, I don't know what goes into paying hush money to a porn star to secure silence over some type of alleged affair. I just can't speak to that," DeSantis said. (Trump has denied wrongdoing, including having an affair with Daniels; his lawyers have said the money he paid her was akin to extortion.)
So far, though, most declared and potential candidates have been very careful in their criticism of the former commander-in-chief, likely for fear of alienating Trump supporters -- a still-influential portion of the electorate.
According to a recent CNN poll, for those who plan to vote in the 2024 Republican presidential primary or caucus, 40% would most likely support Trump.
He has other legal troubles, though.
This indictment is only the first major development in the host of investigations aimed at Trump. In addition to Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg's case, special counsel Jack Smith is currently investigating Trump's involvement in the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol as well as his handling of classified material after he left office.
Prosecutors in Fulton County, Georgia, have also been investigating efforts by Trump and his allies to overturn Georgia's 2020 election results.
If indictments and charges pile up, the argument that Trump is a distraction to the Republican agenda -- or, worse, a risk to ousting Democrats from Washington -- could be easier to make.