乔·拜登总统周二开始了他的连任竞选，结束了数月来对他选举未来的猜测，并为与前总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)的潜在复赛奠定了基础。
拜登带着在任的好处参加竞选，一连串的成就而民主党控制着国会，这实际上保证了民主党的提名超过两个长镜头挑战者。但是他也面临着不温不火的支持率,民主党选民的普遍冷漠还有一场运动将会与2020年大不相同在新冠肺炎教传播的过程中，这在很大程度上是虚拟的。
民主党人看好拜登的机会，将他吹捧为反对共和党的强大声音，预计共和党将提名特朗普或另一位与他的政治品牌一致的政治家，拜登试图给拜登贴上“MAGA”极端主义的标签，因为他强调了他对堕胎权、国内制造业和其他问题的支持。
与此同时，共和党人受到民调显示总统面临逆风的鼓舞，包括来自他自己政党的逆风——尽管特朗普的支持率也在水下——以及他们所谓的一长串迫在眉睫的问题，如通货膨胀、移民、犯罪和经济不确定性。
这里有五个要点随着拜登竞选连任的进行。
拜登有主要的挑战者，但不要指望2020年式的比赛
截至目前，拜登技术上有两个主要的挑战者-作家玛丽安娜·威廉森，他也参加了2020年民主党提名的竞选，以及律师和活动家小罗伯特·F·肯尼迪，他是一个著名的政治家族的成员，因其反疫苗立场而臭名昭著。
但是，由于民主党选民和民主党全国委员会(DNC)对总统的兴趣不高，预计威廉姆森和肯尼迪的道路都将受阻。
民主党全国委员会打算清空其战争资金，以使拜登继续留在白宫，并在2月份的冬季会议上通过了一项决议，表示“全力支持”拜登和副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯。这意味着该党不会为威廉姆森和肯尼迪举办初选辩论来攻击拜登，总的来说，这两位候选人将缺乏机构支持。
虽然有些人对此感到愤怒-威廉姆森在社交媒体上称之为愤怒-但这符合过去在任总统的竞选方式，包括2020年的特朗普，尽管当时其他人在技术上寻求共和党提名反对他。“拜登击败特朗普是因为他将要做的事情，现在将通过谈论他已经做了什么以及他将如何完成这项工作来再次击败他。因此，尽管共和党人继续在血祭MAGA极端分子的过程中相互撕扯，但他可以继续做他的工作，真的不需要在将军之前努力开展竞选活动，”民主党策略师埃迪·维尔说。
与白宫有联系的前民主党全国委员会官员卡伦·芬尼(Karen Finney)在给美国广播公司新闻(ABC News)的一条短信中补充说，“尽管这一宣布意味着筹款和建设竞选基础设施的工作开始了，但总统和副总统至少在年底前可以继续专注于他们的日常工作。”
尽管如此，共和党人渴望拜登最终参加竞选活动，即使他不太可能迅速安排活动。他们认为，特朗普在2020年获得通过主要是因为疫情，这是特朗普经常强调的一点。
“他不能躲在地下室里，”共和党民调专家罗伯特·暴雪说。
拜登的首次亮相是正常的
拜登周二早上在社交媒体上发布的一段视频中宣布了这一消息，距离2024年大选还有一年半多，但这与特朗普以外的在任总统过去的声明相呼应。
巴拉克·奥巴马于2011年4月4日宣布参加2012年竞选连任，乔治·w·布什于2003年5月16日宣布参加2004年竞选连任。
特朗普标志着这种模式的偏离，在2017年上任的第一天启动了他的2020年连任竞选。
“这是总统竞选连任的通常方式，特别是当他们有一个非常好的成绩记录时，”Vale说。
Dem热情可能是一个问题:他们会反弹吗?
民意调查一再表明，拜登在赢得大多数人的支持方面面临挑战，甚至来自民主党人的支持。
在本月早些时候发布的美国广播公司新闻/益普索民意调查中，拜登的支持率仅为34%，多项调查表明，大多数民主党选民更希望看到其他人成为明年的党内总统候选人。
选民们也一再对拜登的年龄表示担忧——80岁的拜登已经是美国历史上年龄最大的总统，在第二个任期结束时，他将是86岁。
“是的，他们宁愿他年轻些。但他们都支持他，”前议长南希·佩洛西(Nancy Pelosi，D-California)周四谈到民主党选民时说。“有一点，我们可以说，侧边栏的东西。但总的来说，人们明白这次选举利害攸关，所以全力以赴真的很重要，乔·拜登。”
康涅狄格州民主党参议员克里斯·墨菲(Chris Murphy)周二晚些时候回应说，他对总统的能力“毫无疑问”。“明年十一月...这将是一个非常明确的选择，”他说。
其他议员也强调了拜登在第一个任期内与国会两年民主党多数党的立法工作。
民主党人试图缓解对拜登民调数据的担忧，他们指出，当被问及在与特朗普和佛罗里达州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯(Ron DeSantis)等人的对决中，他们会投票给谁时，民主党选民大多会回家。
“我们应该关注的数据点不是关于他们想竞选谁的假设，而是他们说他们要投票给谁，民主党人一直坚定不移地支持拜登总统，”民主党民意测验专家莫莉·墨菲说。
高调的民主党人已经开始支持拜登，他的前老板奥巴马在推特上说，拜登“为美国人民提供了帮助——一旦他再次当选，他将继续这样做。”同样，在2020年与拜登竞争民主党提名的佛蒙特州独立参议员伯尼·桑德斯这次很快支持他参加2024年的竞选。
然而，并不是每个民主党人都赞同拜登的早期团结。进步民主党全国委员会成员尼娜·特纳在推特上说，该委员会“拒绝举行一场初选辩论是不民主的，剥夺了选民的选择。”
2023年4月25日，乔·拜登总统在华盛顿希尔顿酒店举行的北美建筑工会全国立法会议上发表讲话。
安德鲁·哈尔尼克/美联社
拜登将继续关注“极端分子”
在竞选活动开始前，拜登指责“MAGA极端分子”——这是指特朗普的“让美国再次伟大”口号——他周二的视频表明，他将继续这一战略。
拜登在声明中说:“在全国范围内，MAGA极端分子正在排队接受这些基本的自由，削减你一生支付的社会保障，同时为非常富有的人减税，规定女性可以做出什么样的医疗保健决定，禁止书籍，告诉人们他们可以爱谁，同时让你有更多的投票权利。”
该视频没有提到特朗普的名字，尽管该行与特朗普、德桑蒂斯和R-Ga众议员马乔里·泰勒·格林(Marjorie Taylor Greene)的图像重合。，似乎允许拜登将2024年共和党提名人与特朗普捆绑在一起，即使这位前总统没有赢得初选。
芬尼认为:“正如我们在民意调查中看到的那样，在这个世代交替的时刻，他们正在谈论并采取行动解决美国人对我们的民主和基本自由所面临的威胁的真正关切。”
共和党人欢欣鼓舞
与此同时，共和党人宣布拜登正式参加2024年的竞选，吹嘘他的低支持率将为明年夺回白宫扫清道路。
特朗普发布了一段超过四分钟的视频，抨击拜登在经济、外交政策、移民等方面的记录，称如果两人辩论，这将是民主党人的“最糟糕的噩梦”，并且“在美国历史上，连续两届政府之间从未有过如此大的反差。”
当被问及拜登的声明时，为特朗普竞选团队工作的共和党民调专家约翰·麦克劳克林说，“希望选举就在明天。”
5 takeaways after Biden's 2024 campaign launch -- and why Dems and GOP are both confident
President Joe Bidenlaunched his reelection campaign Tuesday, capping off months of speculation over his electoral future and laying the groundwork for a potential rematch with former President Donald Trump.
Biden comes into the race with the benefits of incumbency,a string of accomplishmentswhile Democrats controlled Congress and the virtual guarantee of clinching his party's nominationover two long shot challengers. But he also facestepid approval ratings,widespread apathy among Democratic votersand a campaign thatwill be very different from 2020, which was largely virtual amid the spread of COVID-19.
Democrats are bullish on Biden's chances, touting him as a powerful voice against a GOP that is anticipated to either nominate Trump or another politician aligned with his brand of politics, which Biden has sought to label "MAGA" extremism as he highlights his support for abortion access, domestic manufacturing and other issues.
At the same time, Republicans are buoyed by polling showing the president facing headwinds, including from his own party -- even though Trump's approval ratings are also underwater -- as well as what they call a long list of looming problems like inflation, immigration, crime and economic uncertainty.
Here are five takeawaysas Biden's reelection bid gets underway.
Biden has primary challengers, but don't expect 2020-style race
As of now, Bidentechnically has two primary challengers-- author Marianne Williamson, who also ran for the Democratic nomination in 2020, and lawyer and activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a member of the famed political family who is notorious for his anti-vaccine stances.
But both Williamson and Kennedy's paths are expected to be choked off due to low interest from Democratic voters and a Democratic National Committee (DNC) that is in lockstep behind the president.
The DNC intends to empty its war chest to keep Biden in the White House and passed a resolution during its February winter meeting expressing its "full and complete support" for Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris. That means the party won't be hosting primary debates for Williamson and Kennedy to take shots at Biden and, overall, the two candidates will lack institutional support.
While some have chafed at this -- and Williamson called it out on social media -- it is in keeping with how past incumbent presidents have campaigned, including Trump in 2020, despite others technically seeking the GOP nomination against him then.
"Biden beat Trump because of what he was going to do ,and will now beat him again by talking about what he has done and how he will finish the job. So, while Republicans continue to tear each other apart in a blood sacrifice to MAGA extremists, he can just keep doing his job and doesn’t really need to hit the campaign trail hard until the general," said Democratic strategist Eddie Vale.
"While the announcement means that fundraising and building the campaign infrastructure begins, the President and Vice President can continue to focus on their day jobs at least until the end of the year," Karen Finney, a former DNC official with ties to the White House, added in a text message to ABC News.
Still, Republicans are eager for Biden to eventually hit the campaign trail, even if he isn't likely to quickly set up events. They argue that he largely got a pass during 2020 because of the pandemic, something Trump often highlights.
"He can’t hide in the basement," said GOP pollster Robert Blizzard.
Biden's rollout is normal
Biden's announcement, made in a video released on social media on Tuesday morning, comes more than a year and a half before the 2024 general election, but it echoes past announcements by incumbent presidents other than Trump.
Barack Obama announced his 2012 reelection on April 4, 2011, and George W. Bush announced his 2004 reelection campaign on May 16, 2003.
Trump marked an aberration from that pattern, launching his 2020 reelection campaign on his first day in office in 2017.
"This is how presidents usually run for reelection, especially when they have a really good record of accomplishments to run on," Vale said.
Dem enthusiasm could be a problem: Will they rally?
Polling has repeatedly suggested Biden faces a challenge in winning majority approval overall and even from Democrats.
Biden's approval rating sat at just 34% in an ABC News/Ipsos poll released earlier this month, and multiple surveys have suggested that a majority of Democratic voters would rather see someone else be the party's presidential nominee next year.
Voters have also repeatedly expressed concerns over Biden's age -- at 80, he is already the oldest president in U.S. history, and he would be 86 at the end of a second term.
"Yes, they'd rather he be younger. But they're all for him," former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., said Thursday of Democratic voters. "There's a little, shall we say, sidebar stuff. But by and large, people understand there's so much at stake in this election that it's really important for us to go full strength, full strength Joe Biden."
Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., echoed that later Tuesday, saying he had "no doubts" about the president's competence. "Next November ... it's going to be a pretty clear choice," he said.
Other lawmakers also emphasized Biden's legislative work with the two-year Democratic majority in Congress during his first term.
Democrats have sought to tamp down on concerns over Biden's poll numbers, noting that when asked who they'd vote for in matchups with people like Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Democratic voters largely come home.
"The data point we should be focused on is not hypotheticals about who they want to run but who they say they are voting for, and Democrats have had unwavering support for President Biden in every head-to-head," said Democratic pollster Molly Murphy.
High-profile Democrats have already started falling in line behind Biden, with Obama, his old boss, tweeting that Biden has "delivered for the American people — and he’ll continue to do so once he’s re-elected." Likewise, Vermont independent Sen. Bernie Sanders, who ran against Biden for the Democratic nomination in 2020, this time quickly endorsed him for 2024.
Not every Democratic figure approves of the early unity behind Biden, however. Progressive DNC member Nina Turner tweeted that the committee "refusing to hold a single primary debate is undemocratic and robs the voters of choice."
Biden to continue focus on 'MAGA extremists'
In the lead up to his campaign launch, Biden railed against "MAGA extremists" -- a reference to Trump's Make America Great Again slogan -- and his Tuesday video suggests that he'll keep up that strategy.
"Around the country, MAGA extremists are lining up to take on those bedrock freedoms, cutting Social Security that you paid for your entire life while cutting taxes for the very wealthy, dictating what healthcare decisions women can make, banning books and telling people who they can love, all while making it more for you to be able to vote," Biden said in his announcement.
The video did not mention Trump by name, though the line coincided with images of Trump, DeSantis and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., seemingly allowing Biden to tie whomever the 2024 GOP nominee is to Trump even if the former president doesn't win the primary.
"As we’ve seen in polling, they are speaking to and taking action to address the very real concerns Americans continue to have about threats to our democracy and basic freedoms in this moment of generational change," Finney argued.
Republicans rejoice
Republicans, meanwhile, heralded Biden's official entry into the 2024 race, boasting that his low approval ratings will clear a path to retake the White House next year.
Trump released an over four-minute video lambasting Biden's record on the economy, foreign policy, immigration and more, saying it would be Democrats' "worst nightmare" should the two debate and that "there has never been a greater contrast between two successive administrations in all of American history."
When asked about Biden's announcement, GOP pollster John McLaughlin, who does work for Trump's campaign, said, "Wish the election were tomorrow."
