在最新的美国广播公司新闻和华盛顿邮报民意调查中，乔·拜登总统的工作支持率创下职业生涯新低，68%的美国人表示他太老了，不适合连任这些观点使他在2007年落后于共和党高层2024年的早期偏好。
只有44%的人认为拜登的潜在对手唐纳德·特朗普年龄太大。(特朗普76;拜登，80岁。)除了年龄，特朗普在被视为具有有效担任总统所需的精神敏锐度和身体健康方面远远超过拜登，这两方面都存在对拜登的广泛怀疑。
2023年4月19日，乔·拜登总统在马里兰州阿科基克谈论他的经济议程。
帕特里克·斯曼斯基/美联社，档案
如果特朗普成为共和党提名人，另一个差异看起来对拜登同样有问题:54%至36%的美国人认为特朗普担任总统时在处理经济方面比拜登任期内迄今为止做得更好。
特朗普不是拜登的唯一挑战:鉴于他的弱点，特朗普和佛罗里达州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯都在2024年总统选举中领先拜登。
作为这些结果的指示，拜登的支持率，受通货膨胀的打击，在这项由美国广播公司制作的民意调查中只有36%兰格研究协会。这比2月份下降了6个百分点，比拜登在2022年初的前一个低点低了一个百分点。56%的人不赞同他的表现。
从数字上看，拜登的支持率是自哈里·杜鲁门(Harry Truman)以来下届总统选举一年半以来任何第一任期总统的最低记录。相似的是杰拉尔德·福特，1975年5月支持率为40%;吉米·卡特，1979年5月为37%;而特朗普，2019年4月为39%。没有人再次当选。
挑战
尽管特朗普在共和党提名中明显领先，但他自己也面临挑战。56%的人表示，在调查他是否试图非法推翻2020年总统选举的结果时，他应该面临刑事指控。约有多达54%的人表示，他应该在离任后处理机密文件的调查中面临指控，并在导致2021年1月美国国会大厦风暴的事件中扮演角色。更少的人，大约每10人中有4人，认为他不应该被起诉。
对于特朗普在纽约被指控伪造商业记录的指控，意见分歧更大。49%的人表示，这起案件“被恰当地提起，让特朗普像其他人一样承担法律责任。”44%的人认为这是“不恰当的，试图在政治上伤害特朗普。”
90%的民主党人认为这些指控是恰当的;82%的共和党人说他们不合适。独立选民的比例为47%比40%。
也许反映了特朗普周围的法律漩涡，拜登在另一个个人特征上得分更高，诚实可信。但两者在该特性上都没有得到好评。41%的美国人认为拜登诚实可信，33%的人认为特朗普诚实可信。
选举
无论如何，特朗普在2024年竞选的早期阶段胜过了他的党内对手。在一个开放式问题中，43%的共和党人和倾向于共和党的独立人士表示，他们希望看到该党提名特朗普为明年的总统候选人，当六名最知名的候选人被提名时，他的比例上升到51%。这是他最接近的潜在对手德桑蒂斯的两倍，为25%。
在温和派中，德桑蒂斯最接近特朗普，27%对36%。但是派对上没有那么多。占共和党和共和党倾向者约三分之二的保守派以55-27%的比例支持特朗普而不是德桑蒂斯。
美国广播公司新闻
尽管如此，绝大多数共和党人和倾向于共和党的独立人士表示，他们对特朗普(75%)或德桑蒂斯(64%)作为他们政党的提名人感到满意。不到四分之一的人对两者都不满意;更多的人对德桑蒂斯犹豫不决。当特朗普在2016年3月争取提名时，对他的满意度远低于51%。
比较一下特朗普和拜登在党内的地位:只有36%的民主党人和倾向于民主党的独立人士希望看到他们的政党提名拜登为明年的总统候选人。58%的人更喜欢拜登以外的人，与2月份相比没有变化。
展望2024年11月，在拜登和特朗普的对决中，44%的美国人表示他们肯定或可能会投票给特朗普，38%的人支持拜登，12%的人尚未决定。当犹豫不决的人被问及他们如何倾斜时，这是49-42%，特朗普-拜登。
拜登和德桑蒂斯的对决看起来基本相同。42%的美国人表示，他们肯定或可能会投票给德桑蒂斯，37%的人投票给拜登，16%的人尚未决定。包括倾向于任何一方的未决者，是48-41%，德桑蒂斯-拜登。
这些结果——德桑蒂斯和特朗普对拜登的表现一样好——表明拜登的挑战不是特朗普本身，而是对拜登本人的看法。
值得注意的是，在那些认为特朗普应该在关于他是否非法试图推翻2020年选举结果的调查中面临刑事指控的人中，有18%的人倾向于投票给他而不是拜登。这个群体中71%的人选择拜登。
与此同时，在认为拜登年龄太大不适合这份工作的人中，36%的人倾向于支持他，而这一群体中有54%的人支持特朗普。一个原因是，在说拜登太老的人中，62%的人也说特朗普太老。
年龄/属性
拜登已经是美国最老的总统。如上所述，68%的人认为他太老了，不适合连任;这包括43%的人认为拜登和特朗普都太老，26%的人认为只有拜登如此。更少的人(44%)认为特朗普年龄太大，而43%的人认为特朗普和拜登都一样，只有不到1%的人认为特朗普太老。
近一半的民主党人(48%)认为拜登年龄太大，不适合连任;差不多有同样多的人对特朗普这么说。更多的独立人士(75%)这样评价拜登，而51%的人支持特朗普。在共和党中，79%的人认为拜登年龄太大;只有28%的人这样评价特朗普。
美国广播公司新闻
在65岁及以上的成年人中，62%的人认为拜登太老，而40%的人认为特朗普太老。在18至29岁的最年轻成年人中，75%的人认为拜登年龄太大，而53%的人认为特朗普年龄太大。
除了年龄，还有精神敏锐度和身体健康的问题。整体而言，只有32%的人认为拜登具备有效担任总统所需的思维敏锐度，较三年前他竞选总统时的51%大幅下降。更多的人(54%)认为特朗普具备所需的思维敏锐度，这一比例比三年前上升了8个百分点。在身体健康以有效服务方面，差距甚至更大——只有33%的人认为拜登拥有身体健康，而特朗普有64%。
94%的共和党人和69%的独立人士认为拜登缺乏有效服务所需的思维敏锐度，21%的民主党人也是如此。与年龄一样，这些观点并不完全决定选民的偏好:在这个问题上指责拜登的人中，有15%支持他反对特朗普。
除了广泛的吸引力，这些对拜登的怀疑似乎限制了他的支持力度，这是将选民带到投票站的潜在因素。只有18%的美国人强烈认可拜登在任期间的表现，基本上与他第一年年末持平。特朗普，在4年前的这个点上，支持度更强——28%。
一个关键的不同是在拜登自己的党内。正如反对他成为2024年提名人所反映的那样，只有37%的民主党人和倾向于民主党的独立人士对拜登在任期间的工作表示强烈认可。四年前，在共和党人和倾向于共和党的独立人士中，特朗普的支持率远远高于58%。
审批/组
拜登在一系列群体中都遇到了麻烦。他在核心民主党团体黑人中的支持率只有52%，比他上任时的82%有所下降。事实上，27%的黑人表示他们肯定或可能在2024年投票给特朗普，或倾向于他。特朗普在2020年赢得了12%的黑人选民。
拜登在拉美裔人中的支持率更低，为40%，在白人中的支持率为32%，与他的低支持率持平。在拜登和特朗普的对决中，43%的拉美裔人表示他们肯定或可能会支持特朗普或倾向于特朗普。特朗普在上次选举中赢得了32%的拉美裔选民。
美国广播公司新闻
拜登在女性中的支持率较低，女性是民主党的另一个关键群体，支持率为39%，与他在独立选民中的支持率持平，独立选民通常是摇摆不定的选民群体。事实上，独立选民目前略微倾向于特朗普而不是拜登，48%比39%。拜登在2020年赢得了54%的独立选民。
在其他群体中，拜登在温和派中的支持率处于40%的低位。现在，这个群体中有一半人表示，他们倾向于在2024年投票给他，而不是特朗普。2020年，拜登在温和派中表现得好得多，支持率为64%。
方法学
这项ABC新闻/华盛顿邮报民意调查于2023年4月28日至5月3日通过座机和手机以英语和西班牙语在1006名成年人的随机全国样本中进行。党派分歧是26-25-41%，民主党-共和党-无党派。结果的抽样误差为3.5个百分点，包括设计效果。抽样误差并不是民意测验中差异的唯一来源。
该调查由ABC新闻制作兰格研究协会，由马里兰州洛克维尔的Abt Associates进行采样和数据收集。请查看调查方法的详细信息这里
Broad doubts about Biden’s age and acuity spell Republican opportunity in 2024: POLL
President Joe Biden's job approval rating hit a career low in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll and a broad 68% of Americans say he'stoo old for another termas president -- views that put him in a trailing position against top Republicans inearly preferences for 2024.
Just 44% see Biden's potential opponent, Donald Trump, as too old. (Trump is 76; Biden, 80.) Beyond chronological age, Trump far surpasses Biden in being seen as having the mental sharpness and the physical health it takes to serve effectively as president, with wide doubts about Biden on both fronts.
Another difference looks equally problematic for Biden should Trump emerge as the Republican nominee: Americans by 54-36% say Trump did a better job handling the economy when he was president than Biden has done in his term so far.
Trump is not Biden's only challenge: Given his weaknesses, both Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis lead Biden in preference for the presidency in 2024.
Indicative of those results, Biden's approval rating, battered by inflation, is just 36% in this poll, produced for ABC byLanger Research Associates. That's down 6 percentage points from February and a point off Biden's previous low in early 2022. Fifty-six percent disapprove of his performance.
Biden's approval rating is numerically the lowest on record for any first-term president a year and a half from the next presidential election in polling dating to Harry Truman. Similar was Gerald Ford, at 40% approval in May 1975; Jimmy Carter, at 37% in May 1979; and Trump, at 39% in April 2019. None were re-elected.
Challenges
Trump, while the clear leader for the GOP nomination, has challenges of his own. Fifty-six percent say he should face criminal charges in investigations of whether he tried illegally to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. About as many as 54% say he should face charges in investigations of his handling of classified documents after leaving office and his role in events leading to the storming of the U.S. Capitol in January 2021. Fewer, about four in 10 in each case, say he should not be charged.
There's a closer division in views about the charges of falsifying business records on which Trump has been indicted in New York. Forty-nine percent say this case was "brought appropriately, to hold Trump accountable under the law like anyone else." Forty-four percent think it was brought "inappropriately, to try to hurt Trump politically."
Ninety percent of Democrats think the charges are appropriate; 82% of Republicans say they're inappropriate. Independents split 47-40%.
Perhaps reflecting the legal swirl around Trump, Biden scores 8 points better on another personal characteristic, being honest and trustworthy. But neither is well-rated on the attribute. Biden is seen as honest and trustworthy by 41% of Americans, Trump by 33%.
Election
Regardless, Trump outperforms his in-party rivals at this early stage of the 2024 contest. In an open-ended question, 43% of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents say they'd like to see the party nominate Trump for president next year, and when the six best-known candidates are named, he advances to 51%. That's double the preference for his nearest potential opponent, DeSantis, at 25%.
DeSantis comes closest to Trump, 27% versus 36%, among moderates. But there aren't that many of them in the party. Conservatives, who account for about two-thirds of Republicans and Republican leaners, favor Trump over DeSantis by 55-27%.
That said, substantial majorities of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they would be satisfied with either Trump (75%) or DeSantis (64%) as their party's nominee. Fewer than a quarter would be dissatisfied with either; more are undecided about DeSantis. Satisfaction with Trump was far lower -- 51% -- as he fought for the nomination in March 2016.
Compare Trump's position to Biden's in his party: Just 36% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents would like to see their party nominate Biden for president next year. Fifty-eight percent prefer someone other than Biden, unchanged from February.
Looking (far) ahead to November 2024, in a Biden-Trump matchup, 44% of Americans say they'd definitely or probably vote for Trump, 38% for Biden, with 12% undecided. When the undecideds are asked how they lean, it's 49-42%, Trump-Biden.
A Biden-DeSantis matchup looks essentially the same. Forty-two percent of Americans say they'd definitely or probably vote for DeSantis, 37% for Biden, with 16% undecided. Including undecideds who lean either way, it's 48-41%, DeSantis-Biden.
These results -- with DeSantis doing as well as Trump against Biden -- suggest that Biden's challenge is not about Trump per se, but about perceptions of Biden himself.
Notably, among those who say Trump should face criminal charges in the investigations into whether he illegally tried to overturn the 2020 election results, 18% are inclined to vote for him over Biden anyway. Seventy-one percent in this group take Biden.
At the same time, among people who say Biden is too old for the job, 36% are inclined to support him anyway, while 54% in this group favor Trump. One reason is that among people who say Biden is too old, 62% also say Trump is too old.
Age/attributes
Biden already is the nation's oldest president. As mentioned, 68% see him as too old for another term; this includes 43% who see both Biden and Trump as too old and 26% who say so only of Biden. Fewer -- 44% -- see Trump as too old while, again, 43% say this about Trump and Biden alike and a scant 1% say it about Trump only.
Nearly half of Democrats -- 48% -- say Biden is too old for another term; about as many say the same about Trump. Many more independents -- 75% -- say this about Biden, versus 51% for Trump. Among Republicans, 79% see Biden as too old; just 28% say this of Trump.
Among adults age 65 and older, 62% see Biden as too old, versus 40% who say the same about Trump. Among the youngest adults, aged 18 to 29, 75% see Biden as too old, versus 53% for Trump.
Beyond age alone are questions of mental acuity and physical health. Just 32% overall think Biden has the mental sharpness it takes to serve effectively as president, down steeply from 51% when he was running for president three years ago. More -- 54% -- think Trump has the required mental sharpness, in his case up 8 points from three years ago. The gap is even wider in terms of having the physical health to serve effectively -- just 33% think Biden has it, versus 64% for Trump.
Ninety-four percent of Republicans and 69% of independents think Biden lacks the mental sharpness it takes to serve effectively, as do 21% of Democrats. As with age, these views aren't entirely determinative of voter preferences: Among people who fault Biden on this question, 15% support him against Trump anyway.
Beyond broad appeal, these doubts about Biden seem to limit his strength of support, a potential factor in bringing voters to the polls. Just 18% of Americans strongly approve of Biden's performance in office, essentially flat since late in his first year. Trump, at this point four years ago, had more strong support -- 28%.
A key difference is within Biden's own party. As reflected in opposition to his being the 2024 nominee, just 37% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents voice strong approval for Biden's work in office. Among Republicans and GOP-leaning independents four years ago, Trump's strong approval was far higher -- 58%.
Approval/groups
Biden has trouble across a range of groups. His approval rating from Black people, a core Democratic group, is just 52%, down from 82% when he took office. Indeed, 27% of Black people say they'd definitely or probably vote for Trump in 2024, or lean toward him. Trump won 12% of Black voters in 2020.
Biden has even lower approval -- 40% -- from Hispanic people (a point from his low) and 32% among white people (matching his low). In a Biden-Trump matchup, 43% of Hispanic people say they'd definitely or probably support Trump or lean that way. Trump won 32% of Hispanic voters in the last election.
Biden is at a low in approval among women, another key group for Democrats, with 39% approval, and, at 30%, matches his low among independents, often a swing voter group. Indeed, independents currently slightly favor Trump over Biden, 48-39%. Biden won 54% of independents in 2020.
Among other groups, Biden is at a low of 40% approval among moderates. Half in this group now say they're inclined to vote for him over Trump in 2024. In 2020, Biden did far better among moderates, with 64% support.
Methodology
This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone April 28-May 3, 2023, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,006 adults. Partisan divisions are 26-25-41%, Democrats-Republicans-independents. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 percentage points, including the design effect. Sampling error is not the only source of differences in polls.
The survey was produced for ABC News byLanger Research Associates, with sampling and data collection by Abt Associates of Rockville, Md. See details on the survey's methodologyhere.
