一天后纽约陪审团裁定唐纳德·特朗普负有责任因为殴打和诽谤充斥着电视广播，周三似乎在2024年的竞选活动中引发了一点涟漪。
平心而论，前总统和竞选领跑者应该为性虐待和诽谤专栏作家让·卡罗尔(E. Jean Carroll)支付500万美元的民事案件裁决标志着一个通常会令人震惊的故事。然而，批评者和盟友都表示，这不会让特朗普在初选中失去领先地位，因为他寻求连续第三次共和党总统候选人提名。
“我认为许多共和党选民认为有两件事。第一，他们在媒体和左翼的更大背景下看待这一问题，纽约市和其他地方的人想抓住他，抓住特朗普。无论是起诉材料，还是联邦调查局的突袭，无论是什么，这都是所有事情的另一部分，”特朗普可能的初选对手的一名顾问表示。
“第二，我认为所有这些东西都是鼓点，我认为人们最终会把它关掉，”这位人士补充道。“很多人对他已经打定了主意。谈到前总统，没有犹豫不决的人。所以，如果你不喜欢唐纳德·特朗普，你也不会喜欢他。如果你喜欢唐纳德·特朗普，这不会改变你的想法。”
特朗普的共和党初选对手的评论反映了对竞选活动的预期影响，这些评论要么让人怀疑选民是否关心判决，要么让人怀疑诉讼程序本身。
“我会说出其他人私下里的想法:如果被告不叫唐纳德·特朗普，我们今天会讨论这个问题吗，甚至会有诉讼吗?”参加初选的企业家兼作家维维克·拉马斯瓦米(Vivek Ramaswamy)在一份声明中问道。
前南卡罗莱纳州州长妮基·黑利说，“我不想谈这个。”告诉电台主持人休·休伊特。“我在爱荷华州、新罕布什尔州和南卡罗来纳州的市政厅做巡回演讲。他们担心通货膨胀。他们关心孩子的教育。他们担心边境，担心边境失控的程度。他们关心的是犯罪和正在发生的事情，为什么有一个中国间谍气球飞过我们。那些是他们关心的事情。"
预计将在未来几周发起总统竞选的佛罗里达州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯(Ron DeSantis)在周三的新闻发布会上回避了一个关于判决的问题，另一位潜在的总统候选人、前副总统迈克·彭斯，告诉NBC新闻他不指望选民会对此给予太多关注，而且他在特朗普政府任职期间“从未听说或目睹过这种性质的行为”。
截至周三下午，前阿肯色州州长阿萨·哈钦森(Asa Hutchinson)是唯一一位直接与特朗普就判决进行较量的共和党总统候选人。
“在我25年的法庭生涯中，我亲眼目睹了对法治的傲慢和蔑视会产生适得其反的后果。他在一份声明中说:“陪审团的裁决应该得到严肃对待，这是唐纳德·特朗普不可原谅行为的又一个例子。”。
前新泽西州长克里斯·克里斯蒂是唯一一个与2024年初选有关的人。
“看，这种行为对于我们称为领导人的人来说是不可接受的，他希望再次担任领导，”特朗普的前盟友克里斯蒂说，他正在考虑自己的总统竞选在福克斯新闻电台星期三。
不愿抨击这位前总统突显了特朗普对大部分共和党人的控制，以及他的许多竞争对手的选举现实。
“除了一两个例外，他的所有对手现在都需要自我介绍。一名潜在对手的顾问表示:“按照纽约陪审团对唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)此类案件的裁决来介绍自己，不会有什么好处。”。
但即使在华盛顿的竞选活动之外，特朗普也只吸引了少数几个批评者。
虽然共和党参议员凯文·克莱默(Kevin Cramer)表示，这一判决“并没有在积极的类别中打上勾号”，犹他州共和党参议员米特·罗姆尼(Mitt Romney)表示，“我希望美国人民的陪审团得出同样的结论，即他不适合成为美国总统”，但就连华盛顿的批评者也不那么乐观。
“我认为，不管特朗普做什么，讨厌他的人都会一直讨厌他。我认为，不管特朗普做什么，爱他的人都会永远爱他，所以我认为这不是问题，”怀俄明州共和党参议员辛西娅·卢米斯(Cynthia Lummis)说，他去年称德桑蒂斯是共和党的领袖。
其他策略师认为，虽然判决本身可能不会吓跑初选选民，但丑闻的汇集可能会让选民对他赢得大选的能力感到足够担忧，他们可能会转向初选。
“这些东西大多已经反映在价格中，许多共和党人本能地需要为特朗普辩护，特朗普总是受到他认为的敌人的攻击。也就是说，这是另一个火上浇油，这些起诉和潜在起诉的累积效应，包括这一判决，将对选民有利。这不仅关系到他的性格，也关系到他的候选资格。
然而，反特朗普的共和党民调专家萨拉·朗韦尔(Sarah Longwell)表示，判决后的这种支离破碎的回应可能有助于特朗普在被指控性行为不端和其他丑闻时再次藐视政治严重性。
朗韦尔告诉美国广播公司新闻，她最近组织的七人焦点小组中只有一人听说过卡罗尔案，如果对周二判决的反应重演，即使是雪崩式的丑闻也不足以削弱特朗普的支持。
“这些判决有可能改变一些事情，但这需要共和党人大声疾呼，”朗韦尔说。“只要特朗普在2024年的竞争对手和当选的共和党人不在特朗普被起诉或弹劾或被认定在性侵案中负有责任时异口同声地反对他，只要他们继续为他打掩护，共和党选民就会继续觉得继续支持特朗普没问题。”
朗韦尔补充说，共和党对特朗普过去丑闻和争议性言论的脱节反应，有助于像广泛的选举欺诈这样的信念深入共和党基础。
随着党内许多人认为前总统是“政治迫害”的受害者，一些人认为卡罗尔的判决可能有助于巩固他的竞选地位。
南卡罗来纳州克拉伦登县共和党主席莫也·格拉汉姆在谈到纽约州陪审团时说，“反正那里只有一群自由主义者。”。“我认为这不会改变任何事情……这可能会让他变得更强。”
Will Trump verdict have an impact on the 2024 campaign trail?
A day after aNew York jury verdict that found Donald Trump liablefor battery and defamation flooded the airwaves, it appeared on Wednesday to have caused little more than a ripple on the 2024 campaign trail.
To be sure, the finding in the civil case that a former president and campaign front-runner should pay $5 million for sexually abusing and defaming columnist E. Jean Carroll marked what would normally be a stunning story. Yet, critics and allies alike suggested it would do little to knock Trump off his perch atop primary polls as heseeks a third straight GOP presidential nomination.
"I think many Republican voters think one of two things. One, is they view this in a larger context of the media and the left and those in New York City and elsewhere are out to get him, out to get Trump. Whether it's the indictment stuff, the FBI raids, whatever it might be, this is another piece to all of that," said one adviser to a possible Trump primary opponent.
"Second, I think there's such a drumbeat of all this stuff that I think eventually folks tune it out," this person added. "A lot of people have made up their mind about him. There are no undecided people when it comes to the former president. So, if you don't like Donald Trump, you were still not gonna like Donald Trump. If you like Donald Trump, this isn't gonna change your mind."
Former U.S. President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump attends a campaign event in Manchester, N.H., April 27, 2023.
Brian Snyder/Reuters
The expected impact on the campaign trail was reflected in comments from Trump's GOP primary rivals, which either cast doubt on whether voters cared about the verdict or cast doubt on the proceedings themselves.
"I'll say what everyone else is privately thinking: if the defendant weren't named Donald Trump, would we be talking about this today, would there even be a lawsuit?" Vivek Ramaswamy, an entrepreneur and author running in the primary, asked in a statement.
"I'm not going to get into that," former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haleytold radio host Hugh Hewitt Wednesday."I'm doing town halls all over Iowa and New Hampshire and South Carolina. And they are concerned about inflation. They're concerned about their kids' education. They're concerned about the border and how out of control it is. They're concerned about crime and what's happening with why is there a Chinese spy balloon flying over us. Those are the things they care about."
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is expected to launch a presidential campaign in the coming weeks, dodged a question on the verdict at a news conference Wednesday, and former Vice President Mike Pence, another potential presidential aspirant,told NBC Newsthat he didn't expect voters to pay much attention to it and that he "never heard or witnessed behavior of that nature" while serving in Trump's administration.
As of Wednesday afternoon, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson was the only GOP presidential contender to directly take on Trump over the verdict.
"Over the course of my over 25 years of experience in the courtroom, I have seen firsthand how a cavalier and arrogant contempt for the rule of law can backfire. The jury verdict should be treated with seriousness and is another example of the indefensible behavior of Donald Trump," he said in a statement.
Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was the only other person connected to the 2024 primary to hit Trump head on.
"Look, this kind of conduct is unacceptable for somebody that we call a leader and him wanting to take leadership again," Christie, an erstwhile Trump ally who is considering a presidential bid of his own, saidon Fox News RadioWednesday.
The reluctance to bash the former president underscored both Trump's grip over a large slice of the GOP base and the electoral reality for many of his rivals.
"All of his opponents, with the exception for maybe one or two, are in a place where they need to introduce themselves right now. And there's little to gain by introducing themselves in the terms of a New York jury verdict about a case of this nature regarding Donald Trump," the adviser to a possible opponent said.
But even off the campaign trail in Washington, Trump drew only a handful more detractors.
While Sen. Kevin Cramer, R-N.D., said the verdict "doesn't put a check mark in the positive category" and Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, said "I hope the jury of the American people reach the same conclusion which is he is not fit to become the president of the United States," even critics in Washington were less bullish.
"I think that people who hate Trump will always hate Trump regardless of what he does. I think people who love Trump will always love Trump regardless of what he does, so I think it's kind of a non-issue," said Sen. Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyo., who last year called DeSantis the leader of the GOP.
Other strategists suggested that while the verdict itself might not turn off primary voters, the compilation of scandals could make voters concerned enough over his ability to win a general election that they might turn to a primary alternative.
"This stuff is mostly priced in, and a lot of Republicans have a reflexive need to defend Trump, who is always under attack from his perceived enemies. That said, this is another log on the fire, and the cumulative effect of these indictments and potential indictments, including this judgement will add up for voters. It goes not only to his character but to his electability," said Iowa-based GOP strategist David Kochel.
However, the kind of fractured response following the verdict could help Trump once again defy political gravity when accused of sexual misconduct and other scandals, said anti-Trump GOP pollster Sarah Longwell.
Longwell told ABC News that a recent seven-person focus group she conducted included only one person who had heard of the Carroll case and that even an avalanche of scandal might not be enough to undermine Trump's support if the reaction to Tuesday's verdict repeats itself.
"These verdicts have the potential to change something, but it requires Republicans to get loud about them," Longwell said. "As long as Trump's 2024 rivals and elected Republicans don't in one voice speak out against Trump whenever he's indicted or impeached or found liable in a sexual assault case, as long as they continue to run cover for him, the Republican voters are gonna continue to feel like it's fine to continue to support Trump."
Longwell added that disjointed Republican responses to past scandals and controversial remarks from Trump have helped beliefs like widespread election fraud seep deep into the GOP base.
And with a broad swath of the party believing the former president is victim of a "witch hunt," some suggest the Carroll verdict could help solidify his campaign position.
"It's just a bunch of liberals up there anyway," Moye Graham, the chair of the Clarendon County, South Carolina Republican Party said of the New York jury. "I don't think it'll change a thing … It might make him stronger."
