民主党人和共和党人至少可以在一件事上达成一致:他们不知道会发生什么在明年的亚利桑那州参议员竞选中。
这场选举正在变得势均力敌不可预测的三方竞争在这个国家的主要战场之一，一名现任者离开了她的政党，一名两极分化的保守派仍然是她的基础和民主党候选人的摇滚明星，这将代表着历史上思想温和的州的左翼震动。
现任参议员Kyrsten Sinema的前助手约翰·拉邦巴德(John LaBombard)说:“这是一次你自己选择的冒险。”“如果一场双向竞争是不可能预测的，那么这就更难预测了。”
西内马首先搭建了舞台当她从民主党人去年底去了一家独立公司。虽然她称这一选择是“我一直以来的反映”，但这一转变也避免了与亚利桑那州众议员鲁本·加莱戈的初选斗争，并为一些更不寻常的事情铺平了道路。
Sinema还没有说她是否计划竞选连任。如果她真的加入，她将确保在一个与两大政党无关的选民人数超过共和党和民主党的州与三名主要候选人进行竞选，这使得关于谁将成为赢家的合理假设变得复杂。
状态数据演出亚利桑那州不到35%的选民是注册的共和党人，30%是注册的民主党人，而35%的人既没有注册也没有注册。
如果Sinema退休，接替她的竞选可能会以海军陆战队老兵、Sinema的前众议院同事Gallego和共和党人Kari Lake为特色，前者已对她提出批评，后者是前电视主播、选举否认者和2022年州长候选人。
与历史上赢得全州选举的中间派相比，Gallego和Lake更倾向于他们政党的意识形态方面。
“这将是我们在亚利桑那州前所未见的，”该州共和党策略师罗娜·罗梅罗说。“我认为让事情变得更糟糕的显然是鲁本和凯尔斯滕个人并不和睦。取决于谁是共和党人，如果你再次得到一个像卡莉·莱克这样的煽动者，我们已经看到她以前是如何操作的，这将把它带到另一个水平。”
来自两党的19名特工在接受美国广播公司新闻采访时大多认为Sinema会再次竞选，指出她正在进行筹款，并继续参与高调的立法推动，如移民。
鉴于Sinema自2018年翻转席位以来引起了极大的关注，对亚利桑那州即将到来的参议院竞选命运的关注并不令人惊讶。
2023年5月18日，在国会山，在最近的银行倒闭事件发生后，参议员Kyrsten Sinema在参议院银行，住房和城市事务委员会的听证会上向证人提问。
Evelyn Hockstein/路透社
Sinema曾在众议院任职三届，她迅速投身于众议院几项最重要和最成功的立法工作，包括基础设施、同性婚姻、枪支等。
她的立法风格为她赢得了赞誉和批评，支持者指出了她的记分卡，自由派批评者说，她过于急于淡化民主党的优先事项，包括提高最低工资，支持处方药定价改革，以及废除参议院阻挠议事作为将堕胎保护合法化的一种方式。
“总的来说，我认为亚利桑那州对西内马参议员所做的工作感到满意，”前民主党州议员凯萨·查维斯说。“西内马议员提出的问题...主张，并已非常成功地这样做，肯定会导致积极的滴答在她的数字。”
亚利桑那州国务卿阿德里安·丰特斯的高级顾问、马里科帕县民主党前主席史蒂夫·斯拉格奇反驳道:“我怎么强调她有多不受欢迎都不为过。”。“去年我和阿德里安走遍了这个州。第一个问题总是‘我们该拿西内玛怎么办?“我们怎样才能取代她，”"
这些对立的分析引发了关于Sinema和Gallego选举道路的民主辩论。
Sinema的支持者指出独立选民的登记优势，并表示她更温和甚至非正统的政策立场符合民主党近年来在这个州取得成功的情况，尽管环境远非一片蔚蓝。
“他们说行动比语言更响亮，她可能是我在整个国会中认识的最能达成解决方案的人，”一位要求不透露姓名的前同事说。“她可以以‘许下承诺，信守承诺’为竞选纲领。我认为这是一个非常强烈的信息。"
然而，其他人说，大多数独立选民实际上投票给一个主要政党或另一个政党，虽然她可能会保持真正的独立选民，并带走一大块被共和党提名人如莱克拒绝的温和共和党人，但没有足够多的民主党人会背叛投票给第三方候选人-辅助加莱戈。
无党派民调专家迈克·诺布尔(Mike Noble)说:“如果(盖莱戈)能够留住他的民主党人，他就相当稳固，因为如果他们失去30%的共和党人，鲁本只会失去10%，那么，他最终可能会比其他任何人都多。”“中间的独立人士，他们不是真正的独立。其中三分之一是民主党人，三分之一是共和党人，三分之一实际上是真正的无党派人士。”
这场竞选还可能会激烈争夺西班牙裔选民的支持，这是西南州一个有影响力的群体。
所有这些都将在参议院之战的更大背景下发生，民主党党团(包括三名无党派人士)以51比49的比例占据多数，但在2024年捍卫了23个席位，这使得特工们急于避免一个搅局者候选人，但没有就谁会是谁达成任何协议。
“她(西内马)已经表明，她知道如何在亚利桑那州获胜。我看了两个主要政党的其他候选人，包括我自己的政党，我没有看到公认的赢家。“所以，是的，作为一名民主党人，我很紧张，因为我想让卡莉·莱克离开参议院。”
“如果她作为独立候选人参加竞选，鲁本作为民主党人已经处于劣势，仅仅因为我们拥有的人数，”一位支持加莱戈的前州议员说。“所以，关键在于西内马会获得多少选票?即使是非常小的百分比，任何小的百分比都可能导致这种情况。”
可以肯定的是，民主党并不是唯一感到焦虑的人。
共和党策略师告诉美国广播公司新闻，一名民主党人和一名有民主党背景的独立人士的三方竞选通常对共和党候选人有利。但莱克正在崛起，并以微弱优势输给民主党人凯蒂·霍布斯(Katie Hobbs)，许多观察人士将此部分归因于她更强硬的立场，包括她对2020年选举欺诈的毫无根据的指控。
一位熟悉莱克想法的消息人士告诉ABC新闻，他们相信她会竞选参议员，很可能在秋天发起一场运动。此人还证实，莱克最近会见了几位参议员，包括蒙大拿州的全国共和党参议员委员会主席史蒂夫·戴恩斯，凭借她广泛的知名度和保守派选民的支持，她将作为压倒性的初选热门进入竞选。
共和党战略家同意对初选的评估，以及随之而来的总体风险。
“理论上，从理论上讲，西内马与民主党的决裂对共和党人来说是有利的。但我认为，共和党初选将会令人心痛，我们会不会一遍又一遍地犯同样荒谬的错误，民主党会不会继续在这个州获胜。
尽管如此，几乎每个接受美国广播公司新闻采访的人都补充说，鉴于现任总统作为第三方候选人竞选的不可预测性，他们的分析最终可能会被取消。
“我们在亚利桑那州从未见过这样的事情，”该州的一名民主党战略家说。“我只是认为，现在试图预测任何事情，你还不如摇一摇神奇的8球，看看它会告诉你什么。”
'Like nothing we've ever seen before': Arizona set for unpredictable Senate race
Democrats and Republicans can at least agree on one thing: They have no idea what's going to happenin next year's Arizona Senate race.
The election is shaping up to bean unpredictable three-way contestin one of the nation's premier battlegrounds featuring an incumbent who left her party, a polarizing conservative who remains a rock star with her base and a Democratic nominee-in-waiting who would represent a jolt to the left for the historically moderate-minded state.
"This is kind of a pick your own adventure," said John LaBombard, a former aide to incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema. "If a two-way race is impossible to predict, this is exponentially harder to predict."
Sinema first set the stagewhen she switched from being a Democratto an independent late last year. While she called that choice a "reflection of who I've always been," the switch also prevented a primary fight with Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego -- and paved the way for something more unusual.
Sinema has not yet said if she plans on running for reelection. If she does jump in, she'd ensure a race with three major candidates in a state where voters unaffiliated with the two major parties outnumber both Republicans and Democrats, complicating tidy assumptions about who would emerge the winner.
State datashowsjust under 35% of Arizona voters are registered Republicans and 30% are registered Democrats, while 35% aren't registered with either.
If Sinema retires, the race to succeed her could instead feature Gallego, a Marine Corps vet and former House colleague of Sinema's who has become vocally critical of her, and Republican Kari Lake, a former TV anchor, election denier and 2022 gubernatorial candidate.
Both Gallego and Lake are more associated with their parties' ideological flanks than the centrists who have historically won statewide.
"It's gonna be like nothing we've ever seen before in Arizona," said state GOP strategist Lorna Romero. "I think what's going to make it nasty is obviously Ruben and Kyrsten don't get along personally. And depending on who the Republican is, if you get a firebrand like a Kari Lake again, we've seen how she's operated before, that's going to take it to another level."
Nineteen operatives from both parties who spoke with ABC News for this story mostly thought that Sinema would run again, pointing to her ongoing fundraising and continued involvement in high-profile legislative pushes like on immigration.
The focus on the fate of Arizona's upcoming Senate race is hardly surprising given the outsized attention Sinema has drawn since she flipped her seat in 2018.
Sinema, who previously served in the House for three terms, quickly thrust herself into the heart of several of the chamber's most significant and successful legislative efforts, including on infrastructure, same-sex marriage, guns and more.
Her style of legislating won her both plaudits and reproach, with supporters pointing to her scorecard and liberal detractors saying she has been overly eager to water down Democratic priorities, including raising the minimum wage, supporting prescription drug pricing reform and scrapping the Senate filibuster as a way to codify abortion protections.
"Overall, I think the state of Arizona is content with the work that Sen. Sinema done," said Cesar Chavez, a former Democratic state lawmaker. "The issues that Sen. Sinema ... has advocated for, and has been very successful in doing so, will definitely result in a positive tick in her numbers."
"I cannot stress this enough how deeply unpopular she is," countered Steve Slugocki, a senior adviser to Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes, a former chair of the Maricopa County Democratic Party. "I traveled the state everywhere with Adrian last year. The first question was always, 'What are we going to do about Sinema? How can we replace her?'"
Those countervailing analyses are fueling a Democratic debate over the electoral paths for Sinema and Gallego.
Sinema's supporters point to independents' registration advantage and say that her more moderate -- even unorthodox -- policy stances match a state where Democrats have had success in recent years even as the environment is far from solidly blue.
"They say actions speak louder than words, and she has reached across the aisle probably more than anybody else I know in the entire Congress to forge solutions," said one former colleague, who asked not to be quoted by name. "She can run on a platform of 'promises made, promises kept.' And I think it's a very strong message."
Others, however, say that most independents in fact vote for one major party or the other and that while she may keep true independents and take a chunk of moderate Republicans turned off by a GOP nominee like Lake, not enough Democrats would defect to vote for a third-party candidate -- aiding Gallego.
"If [Gallego] can keep his Democrats, he's pretty solid, because if they lose 30% of Republicans on the R side, Ruben only loses 10%, well, he's probably gonna have more than everybody else at the end of the day," said nonpartisan pollster Mike Noble. "Independents in the middle, they're not truly independent. One-third of them are Democrats, one-third are Republicans and one-third are actually true independents."
The race will also likely feature an intense battle for support from Hispanic voters, an influential group in the southwest state.
All of this will play out in the larger context of the battle for the Senate, with the Democratic caucus (which includes three independents) holding a 51-49 majority but defending 23 seats in 2024, making operatives eager to avoid a spoiler candidate but without any agreement on who that would be.
"She [Sinema] has shown she knows what it takes to win in Arizona. I look at these other candidates in both major parties, including my own, and I do not see proven winners," said LaBombard, one of her former aides. "So yeah, as a Democrat, I'm nervous because I want to keep Kari Lake out of the Senate."
"If she's in the race as an independent, Ruben's already at a disadvantage as a Democrat just because of the numbers that we have," said one former state lawmaker who is supporting Gallego. "So, it comes down to a point of how many votes is Sen. Sinema going to take? Even if it is a very small percentage, any small percentage at all could tip this."
To be sure, Democrats aren't the only ones wringing their hands.
Republican strategists told ABC News that a three-way race with a Democrat and an independent with a Democratic background would normally be a boon to the GOP candidate. But Lake is looming in the wings and is coming off a narrow loss to Democrat Katie Hobbs, which many observers attributed, in part, to her more hardline positions including her embrace of baseless claims of 2020 election fraud.
A source familiar with Lake's thinking told ABC News they're confident she'll run for the Senate, likely launching a campaign in the fall. This person also confirmed that Lake recently met with several senators, including National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Steve Daines of Montana, and that with her broad name recognition and support from conservative voters, she would enter the race as the overwhelming primary favorite.
Republican strategists agree with that assessment of the primary -- and the attendant risks in the general.
"[T]he Sinema breakup from the Democratic Party looks good for Republicans on paper, theoretically. But I think that the big heartburn is what's going to happen out of a Republican primary, and are we just going to do the same ridiculous mistakes over and over again, and Democrats are just going to continue to win in the state," Romero said.
Still, virtually every person who spoke to ABC News added the caveat that their analyses could end up being off given the unpredictable nature of a potential race with the incumbent running as the third-party candidate.
"We've never seen anything like that in Arizona," one Democratic strategist in the state said. "I just think trying to predict anything right now, you might as well shake a Magic 8 Ball and see what it tells you."
