凯文·麦卡锡在一月份出现从他历史混乱的议长选举中他坚信，众议院共和党人之间的分歧实际上是他们未来成功的线索。
“我们从里根的哲学出发，‘如果我们80%的时候都同意别人的意见，那我们就都在一起了。’我喜欢有一个如此大的党的想法，你有很多的信仰在里面，他当时告诉记者。但是你有我们信念的基础，我认为我们上周经历的事情从长远来看只会让我们更加强大。"
尽管如此，怀疑者比比皆是，麦卡锡是否能够让他的成员团结一致，在关键的立法上采取行动，更直接的是，他是否能在整整两年的时间里坚持自己的原则。
“有名无实的议长，”读一个标题指的是他与其他共和党人达成的一系列协议，以赢得他的角色，包括允许任何一个立法者才能引发罢免他的投票。
现在，作为麦卡锡敦促众议院通过两党共同提高债务上限他在美国可能拖欠账单的前几天进行了斡旋，他的领导风格再次成为人们关注的焦点。
领先的共和党议员聚集在他周围，吹捧他与拜登白宫的谈判。尽管如此，在民主党人援引他们所谓的“承诺”的同时，众议院中的其他几十名保守派也叛逃了，至少有150名共和党人将在周三晚上最终支持债务协议，然后他们将帮助补足其他投票。
该法案的失败有可能颠覆美国经济及其在国际金融体系中的角色。
对麦卡锡来说，任何一个共和党人都可以攻击他，要求投票罢免他。
这是一次考验——但战略家和盟友们认为他似乎一定会通过。
“你永远无法避免反对者，”共和党北卡罗莱纳州众议员帕特里克·麦克亨利周三对记者说，他是借款和预算协议的谈判代表。“这肯定是任何重大举措的本质，比如提高债务上限。不过，我想说的是，众议院共和党人现在的处境更好，总体上更幸福，比我20年来在众议院遇到的任何一次债务上限都要高。”
布伦丹·巴克(Brendan Buck)是前共和党发言人俄亥俄州的约翰·博纳(John Boehner)和威斯康星州的保罗·瑞安(Paul Ryan)的助手，他告诉美国广播公司新闻(ABC News)，尽管麦卡锡并不是“完全安全”不会反叛，“我认为他实际上有很好的声誉，并且在某种程度上让我感到惊讶，他对这份工作真的没有威胁。”
另一位前众议院共和党领导人助理道格·叶禾说:“这是他一直以来的优势，他不懈地努力让他的成员们工作，他倾听他们的意见，而且他非常在场。”“尤其是很多时候，博纳会告诉他们去捣沙子。当博纳说，这些成员中的一些人应该捣沙子时，我通常同意他的观点。
"但是凯文找到了一个更好的方法，这个法案显示了这一点."
众议院议长凯文·麦卡锡在众议院计划就白宫和国会就提高美国债务上限达成的临时协议进行投票的当天向媒体发表简短讲话...显示更多undefined
Jim Lo Scalzo/EPA via Shutterstock
我们会做得很好的
华盛顿的那些人一直预计，债务上限之争是麦卡锡议长职位的第一个生存威胁，因为共和党的强硬派一直在推动全面削减支出，也因为任何不满的成员都可能会解雇麦卡锡。
在麦卡锡成功地将拜登推上谈判桌后，麦卡锡和乔·拜登总统最终在上周达成的协议被双方描述为一种妥协，对非可自由支配的国内支出设定支出上限，小幅增加国防支出，对某些受援者提出一些新的工作要求等等。
然而，至少有30名众议院共和党人人表示，他们计划投票反对该法案，许多人表示，与上月众议院勉强通过的政党路线法案相比，该法案对政府的削减少得多(民主党参议院拒绝了该法案)。
到目前为止，只有一名立法者——北卡罗莱纳州众议员丹·毕晓普(Dan Bishop)——明确表示他支持所谓的动议，即腾出椅子，以迫使就麦卡锡的议长职位进行投票。但是其他保守派提出了这种可能性。
佛罗里达州共和党众议员马特·盖兹(Matt Gaetz)本周在Newsmax上表示，“如果大多数共和党人反对一项立法，而你利用民主党人来通过它，那将立即违反我们与麦卡锡达成的协议，允许他晋升为议长，这可能会引发立即动议腾出位置。”
麦卡锡没有考虑任何风险，当周日被问及是否担心可能的离职动议时，他说“完全没有”。
他一再告诉ABC新闻，他相信他的大多数人也会投票支持这项法案，尽管他周三早些时候承认需要一些民主党人的投票。
“我认为我们会做得很好，”他说。
在描述他的会议闭幕词时，他告诉美国广播公司:“在这个法案中，你为美国人民赢得了很多胜利。不要错过。不要坐下来说，“我想要更多的东西。”是啊，我也有很多想要的东西，但这是一个让我们朝着正确方向前进的东西。"
“产生了大量的善意”
鉴于提出动议的建议大多局限于众议院典型的煽动者，党内专家表示，麦卡锡将在投票中幸存下来——如果最终触发投票的话。
此外，麦卡锡的支持者表示，可以帮助他避免博纳和瑞安的命运的是自1月以来的一致努力，让强硬派在谈判桌上获得一个席位。博纳和瑞安都是在与麦卡锡相同的反叛分子的压力下辞职的。
在1月份竞选议长之前，麦卡锡赢得了佐治亚州众议员马乔里·泰勒·格林和俄亥俄州众议员吉姆·乔丹等人的支持。甚至像得克萨斯州众议员奇普·罗伊这样的煽动者也被保持在圈内，要么在幕后帮助制定立法，要么在公开场合在强大的委员会中占有席位。
巴克说:“在过去的五个月里，他刚刚与成员们产生了大量的善意，传递了保守派的优先事项，听取了成员们的意见，让他们感觉他们是这个过程的一部分，并真正创造了一个他们与世界对抗的故事。”“这创造了凝聚力和团队精神。”
事实上，麦卡锡专注于通过移民等问题的法案，这些法案几乎没有机会成为法律，因为民主党人已经分裂了对政府的控制，但仍然可以在塑造政治对话的同时向立法者提供一些东西。
巴克说:“他只是不停地在黑板上写点东西，每周都可以告诉成员们，他们在这些事情上取得了进展，他们可以回家去见他们的选民，并为他们所做的事情感到自豪。”
他指出，麦卡锡还重视在保守派媒体上宣传共和党的立法，削弱了基层抱怨的可能性，这种抱怨拖累了过去的演讲者。
巴克说，这“真的很有帮助，因为他的两位共和党前任面临的挑战之一是，他们最终成为右翼的恶魔，每个人都想攻击领导层”。
麦卡锡的领导风格已经获得了足够多的支持，现在还不清楚是否会引发罢免动议。共和党众议员斯科特·佩里。毕晓普在美国全国广播公司(NBC)的“现在与媒体见面”节目中说，众议院自由核心小组主席、债务上限法案的反对者奥巴马在这样的投票中取得了突破。
然而，即使进行投票，战略家们预测麦卡锡可以战胜它——而且，随着最棘手的问题可能从他身边解决，他将成为一名完整的议长。
“对许多成员来说，这是一个爆发的时刻，”叶禾说。“如果他能够在两党合作的基础上在众议院通过这项法案，那么在其他问题上让他下台的理由何在?”
Why debt ceiling bill is a major test of Kevin McCarthy's leadership
Kevin McCarthy emerged in Januaryfrom his historically chaotic speakership electionconfident, he insisted, that the disagreements among House Republicans were actually a clue to their future success.
"We go from the Reagan philosophy of 'if we agree with people 80% of the time, we're all together.' I like the idea of having a party so large that you have a lot of beliefs inside it," he told reporters at the time. "But you have a foundation of our beliefs, and I think what we went through last week will only make us stronger in the long run."
Nonetheless, skeptics abounded over whether McCarthy would be able to keep his members united enough to act on key legislation -- and, more immediately, whether he could hold onto his gavel for a full two years.
"Speaker in Name Only,"read one headline, referencing a series of agreements he made with other Republicans to win his role, including allowing any one lawmakerto be able to trigger a vote to remove him.
Now, as McCarthyurges the House to pass a bipartisan debt ceiling increasethat he brokered days before the nation may default on its bills, his leadership style is back in the spotlight.
Leading GOP lawmakers are rallying around him, touting his negotiations with the Biden White House. Still, dozens of other conservatives in the chamber have defected at the same time that Democrats have invoked what they called a "commitment" that at least 150 Republicans will ultimately back the debt deal on Wednesday night before they will help make up the other votes.
The bill's failure risks upending the U.S. economy and its role in the international financial system.
For McCarthy, any single Republican could turn on him and call for a vote to boot him from his job.
It's a test -- but one that strategists and allies say he appears set to pass.
"You can never avoid naysayers," Republican North Carolina Rep. Patrick McHenry, a negotiator on the borrowing and budget deal, told reporters Wednesday. "That is certainly in the nature of any major initiative like raising the debt ceiling. What I would say, though, is House Republicans are in a better situation now, are generically happier now, than at any previous debt ceiling that I've encountered in my 20 years here in the House."
Brendan Buck, an aide to past GOP Speakers John Boehner of Ohio and Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, told ABC News that while McCarthy isn't "completely safe" from rebellion, "I think he's actually in very good standing, and, to a degree that has surprised me, really has no threat against this job."
"It goes to what his strength has always been, that he works his members relentlessly, that he listens to them and that he's very present," said Doug Heye, another former House GOP leadership aide. "Quite often, especially, Boehner would tell them to pound sand. And I usually agreed with Boehner when he said that, that some of these members should pound sand.
"But Kevin, and this bill shows it, found a better way."
'We're gonna do fine'
The debt ceiling fight was always anticipated by those in Washington to be the first existential threat of McCarthy's speakership, both because the GOP's hardline wing has pushed for sweeping spending cuts and because any dissatisfied member could move to boot McCarthy.
The agreement McCarthy and President Joe Biden ultimately rolled out last week, after McCarthy successfully pushed Biden to the negotiating table, was described as a compromise by them both, with spending caps on non-discretionary domestic spending, minor increases to defense spending, some new work requirements for certain aid recipients and more.
However, at least 30 House Republicans have said they plan on voting against the legislation, with many citing how much less it cuts back on the government compared with a party-line bill that narrowly passed the House last month (which the Democratic Senate rejected).
So far, only one lawmaker -- Rep. Dan Bishop of North Carolina -- has explicitly said he'd back a so-called motion to vacate the chair to force a vote on McCarthy's job as speaker. But other conservatives have raised the possibility.
"If a majority of Republicans are against a piece of legislation and you use Democrats to pass it, that would immediately be a black letter violation of the deal we had with McCarthy to allow his ascent to the speakership, and it would likely trigger an immediate motion to vacate," Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., said on Newsmax this week.
McCarthy has brushed off any risk, saying "not at all" when asked Sunday if he worried about a possible motion to vacate.
He has repeatedly told ABC News he believes a majority of his majority will vote for the bill, too, though he conceded earlier Wednesday that some Democratic votes will be needed.
"I think we're gonna do fine," he said.
Describing his closing message to his conference, he told ABC News: "You are getting so many wins for the American people in this bill. Don't miss out. Don't sit back and say, 'I wanted to something so much more.' Yeah, there's a lot of things I want too, but this is one that moves us in the right direction."
'Generated a ton of goodwill'
Given that suggestions of a motion to vacate are mostly confined to the House's typical rabble-rousers, party experts said McCarthy would survive a vote -- if one is even triggered in the end.
What's more, McCarthy supporters said that what could help him avoid the fates of Boehner and Ryan -- both of whom resigned under pressure from the same kind of rebels hitting McCarthy now -- is a concerted effort since January to give hard-liners a seat at the table.
Before running for speaker in January, McCarthy won over Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and Jim Jordan of Ohio, among others. Even firebrands like Texas Rep. Chip Roy were kept in the loop, either by helping craft legislation behind the scenes or in public with seats on powerful committees.
"He's just generated a ton of goodwill with the members over the last five months, passing priorities of conservatives, hearing members out, making them feel like they are a part of the process and really creating a narrative of it's them versus the world," Buck said. "And that creates cohesion and teamwork."
Indeed, McCarthy focused on passing bills on issues like immigration that have little chance of becoming law, given that Democrats have split control of the government, but still offer lawmakers something to present to constituents while shaping the political conversation.
"He just kept putting points on the board, every week could tell members that they're making progress on these things, that they can go home to their constituents and be proud of what they did," Buck said.
He pointed to how McCarthy has also put a premium on appearing in conservative media outlets to sell Republican legislation, blunting the prospect of grassroots grumbling, which has dragged on past speakers.
That "really helps, because one of the one of the challenges that his two previous Republican predecessors had was, eventually, they became boogeymen on the right, and everybody wanted to attack leadership," Buck said.
McCarthy's press-the-flesh style of leading has developed a deep enough well of support that it's not immediately clear a motion to vacate would even be triggered. Rep. Scott Perry, R-Pa., the chair of the House Freedom Caucus and an opponent of the debt ceiling bill, pumped the breaks on such a vote, Bishop said on NBC's "Meet the Press Now."
Yet even if a vote is called, strategists predict that McCarthy could beat it -- and, with likely the thorniest issue pulled out of his side, punch his ticket to a full term as speaker.
"This is a flashpoint moment for a lot of members," Heye said. "If he's able to move this through the House on a big bipartisan basis, where's the argument to remove him on anything else?"
