流亡的前寡头米哈伊尔·霍多尔科夫斯基是弗拉基米尔·普京最知名的批评者之一，多年来一直呼吁结束这位俄罗斯领导人的统治。
周末，作为瓦格纳的领袖叶夫根尼·普里戈津的反叛战士向莫斯科前进霍多尔科夫斯基在俄罗斯自由派亲民主反对派中脱颖而出，呼吁人们支持雇佣军起义，并抓住机会最终推翻普京的专制政权。
尽管几个小时后失败了，霍多尔科夫斯基告诉美国广播公司新闻，普里戈津的起义暴露了普京政权的异常虚弱，并表明俄罗斯的民主反对派现在应该准备利用类似的机会。
霍多尔科夫斯基在周日接受美国广播公司Zoom采访时表示:“政权更迭的可能性越来越大。”。“我们比两天前更近了。这已经完全清楚地向所有人和民主反对派表明，这个政权是脆弱的，有可能利用这个弱点，这个政权实际上是在地板上。”
“现在这样的机会肯定会更多。但下一次，我们只需要做好更多准备，”他说，并补充说，民主反对派应该武装自己，以便能够利用他们。
霍多尔科夫斯基说，周末的“情况表明，最低限度的武装编队足以解决有待解决的权力移交问题”。
他补充说，“整个问题是谁将抓住权力的转移。民主反对派完全有机会抓住它，只要它不再把使用武器的必要性视为某种禁忌。”
这仍然是由俄罗斯国防部于2023年6月26日发布的未注明日期的视频片段制成的，显示俄罗斯国防部长谢尔盖·绍伊古在军官之间做手势，因为他们在一个未公开的地点看地图。
俄罗斯国防部/法新社通过盖蒂图片
霍多尔科夫斯基曾是石油大亨，一度被认为是俄罗斯最富有的人，他于2003年因欺诈和逃税指控被捕，并在监狱度过了十年。他的被捕被视为普京政权的分水岭，他的支持者和独立观察人士普遍认为这些指控是对他试图进入政界并挑战普京的报复。
普京赦免他后，他于2013年获释，自那以来，他一直帮助国外提供资金，支持俄罗斯的民主努力，并削弱普京的统治。
霍多尔科夫斯基说，他毫不怀疑普里戈津的行动是一次真正的政变企图，他说，这是经过普京同意的“阴谋论”正在被克里姆林宫作为“损害控制”而推出
普里戈津宣布叛乱上周五晚上，他带领数千名瓦格纳战士从乌克兰东部进入俄罗斯，并在周六早上占领了南部城市罗斯托夫。他的部队随后向北进军莫斯科，避开了俄罗斯军用飞机和直升机的攻击。
但周六晚上，在距离首都120英里的地方，普里戈津突然停止了游行，并宣布他的部队正在返回营地，此前据报道，白俄罗斯总统亚历山大·卢卡申科与克里姆林宫达成了一项协议。
霍多尔科夫斯基说，他认为Prigozhin已经返回，因为他明白他的部队缺乏占领莫斯科的力量，因为其他俄罗斯军事和安全服务单位没有加入他。他说，与克里姆林宫的协议之所以成为可能，是因为普京政府也在寻找摆脱危机的出路，明白这有多么不稳定，即使很明显普里戈津最终无法获胜。
但是他说，Prigozhin几乎不受阻碍的前进摧毁了人们的信念，即普京得到了俄罗斯公众的广泛支持，或者俄罗斯人愿意为他牺牲自己。
“在瓦格纳纵队行进的所有路线上没有人试图阻碍他，甚至安全部门也没有试图阻碍他，”霍多尔科夫斯基说。"这实际上表明，在俄罗斯国内，普京完全没有权力."
霍多尔科夫斯基因呼吁协助普里戈津而受到其他反对派人士的批评，普里戈津是一名被指控的战犯，他呼吁俄罗斯变得更像朝鲜。
他说，他只是呼吁民主力量将普里戈津作为推翻普京政权的工具，称普里戈津是“强盗和战犯”。
“不是为了支持叶夫根尼·普里戈津。而是利用他创造的局面。”他说，一些民主党反对派“睡过头”错过了这个机会。
“比如说，如果在莫斯科爆发了一场与普里戈津会面的起义，那么情况很可能会有所不同，”他说。“很明显，他个人永远不会获得任何权力，但利用这种情况是可能的。”
当被问及这是否意味着他自己现在正试图组建武装部队时，霍多尔科夫斯基将这个问题抛到了一边。
“不要把我没说过的事情归咎于我，”他说。“每个人都有自己的功能。我是一个和武装组织的形成没有什么关系的人。尽管如此，我非常明白必须做些什么。但是没有人会公开说是谁或者怎么做。”
他补充说，“民主运动的唯一问题是，它必须拿起武器。正如兵变所显示的那样，它不一定要使用他们，但它必须接受他们。”
Change in regime is 'far closer' after Wagner Group rebellion, Putin critic says
Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the exiled former oligarch and one of Vladimir Putin's best-known critics, has campaigned for years to end the Russian leader's rule.
Over the weekend, as Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin's rebellious fightersadvanced towards Moscow, Khodorkovsky stood out among Russia's liberal pro-democracy opposition in calling for people to support the mercenary revolt and to seize upon it as a chance to finally bring down Putin's autocratic regime.
Despite it fizzling hours later, Khodorkovsky told ABC News that Prigozhin's uprising had exposed Putin's regime as extraordinarily weak and showed Russia's democratic opposition should prepare now to take advantage of similar opportunities.
"A change in regime has become far more possible," Khodorkovsky told ABC News by Zoom on Sunday. "We are far closer than two days ago. It has completely clearly demonstrated to everyone and to the democratic opposition, that the regime is weak, that it's possible to use that weakness, that the regime in practically on the floor."
"Now there will definitely be more such opportunities. But the next time, we just need to be more ready," he said, adding that the democratic opposition should arm itself to be able to take advantage of them.
The weekend's "situation showed that minimal armed formations are enough for the question of the transfer of power to be opened," said Khodorkovsky.
He added, "The whole question is who will seize hold of that transfer of power. And the democratic opposition have every opportunity to seize hold of it, if only it will stop viewing the necessity to act with weapons as some kind of taboo."
Khodorkovsky, a former oil tycoon once believed to be the wealthiest man in Russia, was arrested in 2003 on fraud and tax evasion charges and spent a decade in prison camps. His arrest was seen as a watershed moment for Putin’s regime, with the charges widely considered by his supporters and independent observers as retaliation for his efforts to enter politics and challenge Putin.
He was freed in 2013 after Putin pardoned him, and since then has helped bankroll efforts from abroad to support democratic efforts in Russia and undermine Putin's rule.
Khodorkovsky said he had no doubt Prigozhin's actions were a real coup attempt, saying "conspiracy theories" that it had been coordinated with Putin's consent were being put out by the Kremlin as "damage control."
Prigozhindeclared a rebellionagainst Russia's senior military leadership last Friday night, leading thousands of Wagner fighters into Russia from eastern Ukraine and by Saturday morning seizing the southern city of Rostov-on-Don. Columns of his troops then marched north towards Moscow, brushing aside attacks from Russian military aircraft and helicopters.
But on Saturday evening, 120 miles from the capital, Prigozhin abruptly halted his march and announced his forces were returning to camp, after a deal was reportedly brokered with the Kremlin through Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.
Khodorkovsky said he believed Prigozhin had turned back because he understood his lacked the forces to seize Moscow, after other Russian military and security services units didn't join him. The deal with the Kremlin was possible because Putin's government was also looking for an exit from the crisis, understanding how destabilizing it was, he said, even if it was clear Prigozhin ultimately couldn't win.
But he said Prigozhin's almost unimpeded advance had destroyed the belief that Putin has mass support from the Russian public or that Russians were willing to sacrifice themselves for him.
"All along the route of the Wagner columns no one tried to hinder him, even the security services didn't try to hinder him," said Khodorkovsky. "That showed in fact that inside the country Putin has absolute void."
Khodorkovsky faced criticism from other figures in the opposition for his calls to assist Prigozhin, an accused war criminal who has called for Russia to become more like North Korea.
He said he was calling only for democratic forces to use Prigozhin as a tool for bringing down Putin's regime, saying Prigozhin is a "bandit and a war criminal."
"Not to support Yevgeny Prigozhin. But to use the situation that he created," he said, saying some democratic opposition had "slept through" the opportunity.
"If an uprising had started in Moscow to meet Prigozhin, say, then the situation could quite well have developed differently," he said. "It was clear he would never have received any power personally, but it was possible to use this situation."
Asked whether it meant he himself was now trying to form armed units, Khodorkovsky turned the question aside.
"Let's not ascribe things to me I haven't said," he said. "Every person has their function. I'm a person who has quite minimal relation to the formation of armed structures. Nonetheless, I understand very well what has to be done. But no one is going to who or how it will be done no one will say publicly."
He added, "The only problem for the democracy movement is that it has to take weapons in its hands. It doesn't necessarily have to use them, as the mutiny showed, but it must take them up."
