华盛顿-新罕布什尔州正处于公开叛乱状态。格鲁吉亚几乎出局了。
南卡罗来纳州和内华达州同意，但面临共和党的强烈反对。密歇根州的遵守可能意味着不得不缩短州立法会议，尽管民主党人控制了两院和州长官邸。
然后是爱荷华州，该州正在寻找在不违反党规的情况下仍然先走一步的方法。
几个月前，民主党批准了乔·拜登(Joe Biden)总统改革初选秩序的计划，以更好地反映深度多元化的选民基础，但实施改革后的秩序绝非易事。党内官员现在预计，这一过程将持续到今年年底——即使2024年总统竞选围绕着它升温。
“尽管事实上，当总统提出这项计划时，它看起来相对平稳...特拉华大学政治科学系主任、《为什么爱荷华?党团会议和连续选举如何改进总统提名程序。
民主党全国委员会表示，它为一个艰巨的过程做好了准备，但并不太担心不确定性，部分原因是拜登只面临自助作家玛丽安娜·威廉森和反疫苗活动家小罗伯特·F·肯尼迪的轻微初选挑战
拜登的政治顾问说，总统不期望在民主党初选中广泛竞选，而是将重点放在将军身上选举。然而，初选日程可能会让那些希望在2024年之前展现团结的民主党人感到头疼，可能会给2028年带来麻烦——届时该党已承诺重新审视其初选日程。
民主党全国委员会规则和章程委员会联合主席吉姆·罗斯福(Jim Roosevelt)表示，他对爱荷华州和新罕布什尔州的反对“并不感到惊讶”，因为他们正在失去领先地位，而且该委员会“肯定能够解决”共和党人在适应新规则或日程表上新时段的地方的抗议。
“我认为，有一位现任总统是最有可能做出根本改变的时候，以使这一过程更具代表性，”罗斯福说，他还指出，该党上次在2008年竞争激烈的总统初选之前强制调整了初选日程。
然而，它将再次获得这一机会，因为无论2024年发生什么，下一个周期将会出现潜在的重新排序，届时将不会有现任民主党总统寻求连任。
另一个漫长、有争议的新日历过程可能意味着真实选举后果的不确定性——甚至可能使民主党人在竞争激烈的总统初选中难以知道在哪里竞选、雇用员工和做广告。该党可以通过尽早开始2028年日历讨论来尝试缓解这一问题，甚至可能在明年大选后几周。
然而，另一场旷日持久的斗争的前景不会阻止该党:“我们肯定会在2028年再次看到这一点，”罗斯福说。
与此同时，民主党全国委员会不打算改变它在2月份批准的2024年计划，该计划剥夺了爱荷华州自1972年以来的领先地位，并用南卡罗来纳州取而代之，南卡罗来纳州将于2月3日举行初选。三天后，排在第二位的应该是新罕布什尔州和内华达州，这两个州放弃了党团会议，转而支持初选。
根据新的命令，乔治亚州的初选将在2月13日举行，密歇根州的初选将在两周后举行。这些州将领先于美国其他大部分地区，这些地区将在3月初的超级星期二投票——这给了他们巨大的影响力，决定哪些初选候选人可以走得那么远。
但新罕布什尔州回应称，该州法律授权举行全国首次总统初选——爱荷华州因为举行党团会议而回避了50年——并威胁要提前举行。
与此同时，佐治亚州很可能不会进入新的前五名，因为该州的共和党人拒绝了要求他们改变党内初选以符合民主党新日期的呼吁。
虽然南卡罗来纳州的民主党人准备先走，但该州的共和党人将党内初选推迟到三周后，即2月24日。在内华达州，共和党人已经提起诉讼，以维持他们的党内总统党团会议，即使该州转向初选制度。密歇根州也批准了新的日期，但其立法机关可能会提前休会，以使这项工作。
爱荷华州已经提议在任何人之前举行党团会议，但为了遵守新的政党规则，可能不会在晚些时候公布总统竞选的结果。
今年的重组是在2020年爱荷华州党团会议崩溃之后进行的。爱荷华州的回应是提出新的规则，允许民主党人通过邮件提交他们的总统候选人，打破了过去要求亲自参与的党团会议规则。
爱荷华州律师、民主党全国委员会规则委员会成员斯科特·布伦南(Scott Brennan)表示，他的州从初选日程调整一开始就“知道形势对我们不利”——但该州民主党人此后一直试图避免公开挑战国家党的计划。
“我们尽可能保持灵活，”布伦南说，“看看是否有办法解决这个问题。”
共和党人仍然在爱荷华州的党团会议上领先于他们的2024年初选，爱荷华州共和党可能会在下个月确定其党团会议日期。这将允许爱荷华州的民主党人告诉民主党全国委员会何时计划举行党团会议，即使总统选举结果要到稍后才会公布。
爱荷华州民主党人希望，如果佐治亚州和新罕布什尔州腾出席位，他们更灵活的态度可以让该州回到民主党初选的前5名。这将意味着爱荷华州填补了内华达州2月6日投票和密歇根州2月27日投票之间的潜在空白——尽管罗斯福说这种情况不太可能发生。
“我非常赞赏爱荷华州尝试弹性工作制，”他说。“如果爱荷华州能够找到一种完全符合新规则的方法，我们会考虑的。坦率地说，我认为这为时已晚。”
罗斯福还指出，这个以白人为主的州被挤出第一名的原因之一是“人口结构，这不会改变。”
新罕布什尔州的语气更加严厉，称其共和党州长和共和党控制的立法机构不会改变要求其举行全国首次初选的州法律。
“我们没有选择推迟初选。新罕布什尔州民主党全国委员会委员比尔·沙欣说:“也许爱荷华州不同。
如果新罕布什尔州坚持其先走的计划，而拜登选择不在那里竞选，他的一个挑战者可能会看到支持率上升。这对总统来说可能会很尴尬，尽管拜登的支持者指出，民调显示该州的初选离真正的竞争还很远。
“我不认为民主党全国委员会将做任何事情来改变我们将要做的事情，”沙欣谈到国家党继续努力改革初选时说。"我们只是不喜欢被人摆布。"
拜登的连任竞选活动拒绝讨论他的初选挑战者，或者他们是否会受到未经批准的新罕布什尔州初选成功的鼓舞。相比之下，爱荷华州的民主党人已经表示，无论拜登是否在那里竞选，他们都将把他列为总统候选人之一，这可能会使总统在那里避免尴尬。
雷德拉斯克说，民主党人在他们的日历调整中走到这一步的事实意味着“战斗将继续，但我认为现在更有可能发生变化”，并且影响可能是深远的。
“这些早期的州确实影响了竞选。早期的状态并不能保证赢家，但它们会告诉我们谁会输，至少在第一轮中是这样，”雷德拉斯克说。“如果第一个州是南卡罗来纳州、内华达州或其组合，与爱荷华州或新罕布什尔州相比，情况很可能会有所不同。”
The Democratic Party promised to overhaul its primaries. Doing that has been anything but simple
WASHINGTON --New Hampshire is in open rebellion. Georgia is all but out.
South Carolina and Nevada are on board but face stiff Republican pushback. Michigan's compliance may mean having to cut the state legislative session short, despite Democrats controlling both chambers and the governor's mansion.
Then there's Iowa, which is looking for ways to still go first without violating party rules.
Months after the Democratic Party approved President Joe Biden's plan to overhaul its primary order to better reflect a deeply diverse voter base, implementing the revamped order has proven anything but simple. Party officials now expect the process to continue through the end of the year — even as the 2024 presidential race heats up all around it.
“Despite the fact that it looked like relatively smooth sailing for the president when he proposed it ... the kind of backlash you’re hearing, the reactions, are exactly what we would have expected," said David Redlawsk, chair of the political science department at the University of Delaware and co-author of the book “Why Iowa? How Caucuses and Sequential Elections Improve the Presidential Nominating Process.”
The DNC says it prepared for an arduous process, but is not too concerned by the uncertainty, in part because Biden faces only minor primary challengers in self-help author Marianne Williamson and anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Biden's political advisers say the president doesn't expect to campaign extensively in the Democratic primary and instead will focus on the generalelection. But the primary calendar drama might nonetheless prove a headache for Democrats who want to project unity ahead of 2024 and might spell trouble for 2028 — when the party has promised to revisit its primary calendar anew.
Jim Roosevelt, co-chairman of the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee, said he “was not surprised” at the objections of Iowa and New Hampshire since they are losing their leadoff spots, and that the committee is “definitely able to work around” the protests of Republicans in places adjusting to new rules or new slots on the calendar.
“I think having a sitting president is the most likely time to make a fundamental change to make the process more representative,” said Roosevelt, who also noted that the party last enforced a reordering of its primary calendar ahead of a competitive presidential primary in 2008.
It will get that chance again, though, since a potential reorder next cycle will come when, no matter what happens in 2024, there won’t be an incumbent Democratic president seeking reelection.
Another long, contentious new calendar process then might mean uncertainty with real electoral consequences — perhaps even making it difficult for Democrats running in a competitive presidential primary to know where to campaign, hire staff and advertise. The party can try and mitigate that by starting its 2028 calendar discussions early, potentially even weeks after next year's election.
The prospect of another drawn-out fight won't deter the party, though: “Definitely we’ll see this again in 2028," Roosevelt said.
In the meantime, the DNC isn't planning to alter the 2024 plan it approved in February stripping Iowa's caucus of the leadoff spot it held since 1972, and replacing it with South Carolina, which is set to have its primary Feb. 3. Going second, three days later, were supposed to be New Hampshire and Nevada, which is scrapping its caucus in favor of a primary.
The new order had them being followed by Georgia's primary on Feb. 13 and Michigan's two weeks after that. Those states would precede most of the rest of the country, which would vote on Super Tuesday in early March — giving them enormous influence on deciding which primary candidates can make it that far.
But New Hampshire responded by pointing to its state law mandating that it hold the nation’s first presidential primary — which Iowa only circumvented for five decades because it held a caucus — and threatening to jump ahead.
Georgia, meanwhile, likely won't take its place in the new top 5 because the state's Republicans rejected calls to move their party's primary to comply with Democrats' new date.
While South Carolina Democrats are set to go first, the state's Republicans delayed their party's primary until three weeks later, on Feb. 24. In Nevada, Republicans have sued to maintain their party-run presidential caucus, even as the state shifts to a primary system. Michigan has also approved its new date, but its Legislature may adjourn early to make that work.
And Iowa has proposed holding a caucus before anyone else, yet may not release the results of its presidential contest until later in deference to new party rules.
This year's shakeup followed the 2020 Iowa caucus meltdown. Iowa responded by proposing new rules allowing Democrats to submit their presidential choices by mail, breaking with past caucus rules requiring in-person participation.
Scott Brennan, an Iowa attorney and member of the DNC’s rules committee, said his state “knew the deck was stacked against us” from the start of the primary calendar shakeup — but its Democrats have since attempted to avoid open defiance of national party plans.
“We’re trying to remain flexible as long as we can," Brennan said, "to see if there’s a way to fix this.”
Republicans are still leading off their 2024 primary with Iowa's caucus, and the Iowa GOP could set its caucus date next month. That would then allow Iowa Democrats to tell the DNC when it plans to hold its caucus, even if the presidential results aren't released until later.
Iowa Democrats hope their more flexible attitude could see the state let back into the Democratic primary's top 5, if Georgia and New Hampshire vacate their spots. That would mean Iowa filling a potential gap between when Nevada votes on Feb. 6 and Michigan does on Feb. 27 — through Roosevelt said such a scenario is unlikely.
“I give Iowa a lot of credit for trying to work flexibly,” he said. ”If Iowa were to find a way to fully comply with the new rules, that would be considered. Frankly I think it's too late for that.”
Roosevelt also noted that one of the reasons the largely white state was moved out of the No. 1 spot "was demographics, and that's not going to change.”
New Hampshire has struck a harsher tone, saying its Republican governor and GOP-controlled Legislature won't change state law requiring it to hold the nation's first primary.
“We don’t have a choice to delay the primary. Maybe Iowa's different," said New Hampshire Democratic National Committeeman Bill Shaheen.
If New Hampshire presses forward with its plan to go first, and Biden opts not to campaign there, one of his challengers could see a bump in support. That would be potentially embarrassing to the president, though Biden supporters have pointed to polling showing the state's primary remains far from really competitive.
“I don’t think the DNC is going to do anything that’s going to change what we’re going to do,” Shaheen said of the national party's continuing work to overhaul its primary. “We just don’t like getting pushed around much.”
Biden's reelection campaign has refused to discuss his primary challengers or whether they might be buoyed by success in an unsanctioned New Hampshire primary. Iowa Democrats, by contrast, have suggested they'll list Biden among the presidential preferences in their caucus whether he campaigns there or not — potentially sparing the president embarrassment there.
Redlawsk said the fact that Democrats have made it this far in their calendar shakeup means “the battle will continue, but I think it’s far more likely that change will now happen" and that the impact could be profound.
“These early states really do condition the campaign. The early states don’t guarantee a winner, but they tell us who is going to lose, at least in the first rounds,” Redlawsk said. “The winnowing is very likely to be different if the first state is South Carolina, or Nevada, or some combination, than if it were Iowa or New Hampshire.”
