通常情况下,四次被起诉的政客的总统野心会破灭,而不是增强。但前总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)不是传统的政治家——竞争对手的竞选团队正在与这一点和解。
与六名为竞争对手竞选活动工作的共和党特工的谈话显示,他们认为特朗普不会因为周一晚上在佐治亚州的惊人指控而在初选中受到任何实质性打击,他们举起双手,因为他们急于找到一个论点,可以做到四次起诉、两次弹劾、选举失望和一次叛乱都未能削弱特朗普作为事实上的共和党领袖的地位。
“特朗普将看到一个显著的筹款增长,”一名在竞争对手竞选中工作的策略师承认,他和其他人一样,在匿名的情况下接受了美国广播公司新闻的采访。“虽然会有更多的钱进来,但更多的钱会投入到他的法律费用中。与选举更相关的是,随着每一项起诉,他的法律处境变得更加危险,同时进一步巩固了他获得提名的保证。”
富尔顿县地方检察官范尼·威利斯(Fani Willis)的庞大起诉书——其中涉及特朗普和18名共同被告,指控他们涉嫌犯罪阴谋——标志着特朗普迄今为止面临的最新和最大的法律挑战。威利斯对佐治亚州《诈骗影响和腐败组织(RICO)法》下的诈骗指控的依赖意味着她将拥有力量多位法律专家在接受美国广播公司新闻采访时表示,这大致反映了联邦RICO法案的规定,但有显著变化,扩大了州检察官指控被告的能力。他们是国家指控的事实将意味着特朗普无法原谅自己如果他赢得另一个任期。
周一的起诉书使特朗普在所有四起案件中面临的指控总数达到91起——但积极努力阻止特朗普赢得提名的共和党人似乎在谈论一辆失控的火车,指的是前总统在此前的起诉后获得的收益。
当被问及是否有任何候选人可以做些什么来获得在初选中超越特朗普所需的大量土地时,另一名支持竞争对手的共和党特工回答说:“我不认为。”
“这次总统初选是由特朗普的行动控制的,对所有这些指控的回应清楚地凸显了这一点,”该人士说。
其他策略师不太相信特朗普能够永远无视政治引力,他们预测起诉的累积最终会伤害他。但他们没有表明其他候选人会加速这种回归,也没有表明这是否会在初选结束前发生。
“这将与其他关于政治的起诉一样,意味着投票和筹款。但是在法律风险方面,这一次似乎更加不祥。一名支持特朗普竞争对手的游说者表示:我担心,总体而言,这一次可能是真正伤害的一次。
“我不知道第四个会不会改变局势,因为川普非常巧妙地试图扮演好受害者,并把这变成激励他的支持者的东西,”前新泽西州长克里斯·克里斯蒂的顾问迈克·杜海姆补充道。“这一切将继续拖累他。他在这一点上已经相当熟练了,但我确实认为重量最终会让他吃不消。希望对党来说,这发生在初选之前,而不是之后。”
共和党外部的策略师表示,特朗普的主要对手的一个富有成效的途径是提高对这些起诉是否会影响特朗普在大选中的当选资格的担忧,而不是任何起诉本身的价值。
“我确实认为他们需要想办法更多地谈论特朗普无法当选以及这是一种风险的事实,”共和党策略师罗布·斯图兹曼(Rob Stutzman)说,他说共和党关于可当选性的信息一直不一致。
然而,Stutzman表示,很难传达反对特朗普的信息,特朗普在受到攻击时,对共和党初选选民的广泛支持保持着副总统式的控制。
“我认为他们会等到他们看到焦点小组和民意调查表明有办法与选民谈论这件事,”他告诉ABC新闻。
“有线电视上的发言人假装神圣地对候选人摇着手指,说他们需要表明立场,嗯,这对他们来说很容易,”他补充道。“我的意思是,这些候选人试图当选。归根结底,他们反映的是共和党选民,而不是领导任何地方的共和党选民。你必须给他们一些时间和空间来度过这个难关。”
然而,即使其他候选人采取了假设可以穿透特朗普盔甲的信息策略,也不清楚这一信息是否能被接受。
不管宣布了多少起,特朗普的起诉书都会吸引眼球,新闻媒体也提供了广泛的报道,包括在一些情况下,特朗普站在法官面前的日子里,特朗普的车队到达和离开机场和法院的报道铺天盖地。由于竞选中没有其他候选人吹嘘特朗普的平台,获得与前总统相同的关注是一项极其困难的任务。
“这是一个巨大的困境,”资深新罕布什尔州共和党战略家戴夫·卡尼告诉美国广播公司新闻。“谁会听呢?因为你和你的同党将永远谈论特朗普,直到他要么在监狱里有罪,要么获得自由。”
卡尼说,对特朗普法律困境的大量报道使得爱荷华州和新罕布什尔州等州的候选人更加重视,尽管这可能不是对手候选人努力突破的灵丹妙药。
“我肯定酒吧里喝了很多波旁酒,都在谈论f -要做什么,”卡尼说。
Rival GOP campaigns throw their hands up at Trump indictment
Normally, four-time indicted politicians would have their presidential ambitions dashed, not boosted. But former President Donald Trump is no traditional politician -- and rival campaigns are making their peace with that.
Conversations with a half-dozen Republican operatives working with rival campaigns showed they didn't expect Trump to take any substantial hit in the primaries from Monday night's bombshell indictment in Georgia, throwing their hands up in the air as they scramble to find an argument that could do what four indictments, two impeachments, electoral disappointments and an insurrection have failed to do -- dent Trump's status as de facto GOP leader.
"Trump will see a significant fundraising bump," conceded one strategist working on a rival campaign who, like others, spoke to ABC News on the condition of anonymity. "While more money will be coming in, more of it will pour into his legal fees. More pertinent to the election, with every indictment, his legal situation becomes more perilous, while at the same time further solidifying his guarantee of clinching the nomination."
Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis' sprawling indictment -- which hits Trump and 18 co-defendants with charges as part of an alleged criminal conspiracy -- marks the latest and most expansive legal challenge Trump faces to date. Willis' reliance on racketeering charges under Georgia's Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations (RICO) Act means that she willhave powersthat broadly mirror those afforded under the federal RICO Act with notable changes that broaden state prosecutors' ability to charge defendants, according to multiple legal experts who spoke with ABC News. The fact that they are state charges would mean Trumpcouldn't pardon himselfif he won another term.
The Monday indictment brings the total charges Trump is facing from all four cases up to 91 -- but Republicans actively working to keep Trump from winning the nomination appeared to be talking about a runaway train, referencing the gains the former president enjoyed after previous indictments.
When asked whether there's anything any candidate can do to gain the massive amount of ground needed to leapfrog Trump in primary polls, another GOP operative backing a rival replied, "I don't think so."
"This presidential primary is controlled by Trump's actions, and it's clearly highlighted by the response to all these indictments," the person said.
Other strategists were less convinced that Trump would be able to defy political gravity forever, forecasting that the accumulation of the indictments would ultimately hurt him. But they didn't indicate that other candidates could expedite that fall back to earth or whether it would happen before the primaries are over.
"This will be the same as the other indictments regarding the politics, meaning a polling and fundraising plus. But this one seems more ominous on the legal jeopardy front. I am worried that this one might be the one that really hurts" in the general, said one lobbyist backing a Trump rival.
"I don't know that the fourth one will change the dynamics since Trump has pretty skillfully tried to play the victim really well and turned this into something that galvanizes his supporters," added Mike DuHaime, an adviser to former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. "All this is gonna continue to weigh him down. He's been pretty skillful to this point, but I do think the weight will eventually get to him. Hopefully for the party, it happens before the primary, not after."
Outside GOP strategists suggested a fruitful avenue for Trump's primary opponents would be to elevate concerns over whether the indictments impact Trump's electability in a general election rather than the merits of any indictment itself.
"I do think they need to find ways to talk more about the fact that Trump's unelectable and that it's a risk," said GOP strategist Rob Stutzman, who said Republican messaging on electability has been inconsistent.
However, Stutzman said it is difficult to message against Trump, who maintains his vicelike grip on broad swaths of the GOP primary electorate that bristle when he comes under attack.
"I think they'll they're going to wait until they see focus groups and polling that suggest there's a way to talk to voters about it," he told ABC News.
"Talking heads on cable TV sanctimoniously wagging fingers at candidates that they need to be taking a stand, well, it's easy for them to do," he added. "I mean, these candidates are trying to get elected. At the end of the day, they're reflecting the Republican electorate, not leading the Republican electorate anywhere. And you have to give them some time and space to maneuver through this."
Yet even if other candidates land on a messaging strategy that could hypothetically pierce Trump's armor, it's unclear whether that message could even get through.
No matter how many are announced, Trump's indictments draw eyeballs, and news outlets have provided extensive coverage, including in some cases wall-to-wall airtime of Trump's motorcades arriving to and departing from airports and courthouses on days when he stands before a judge. And with no other candidate in the race boasting the platform that Trump does, getting the same attention as the former president is an inordinately difficult task.
"That is a huge dilemma," veteran New Hampshire-based GOP strategist Dave Carney told ABC News. "Who the hell's gonna listen? Because you and your cohorts are going to talk about Trump forever until he's either guilty in jail or is free."
Carney said the deluge of coverage of Trump's legal woes puts an even higher premium on candidates pressing the flesh in states like Iowa and New Hampshire -- though even that may not be a panacea for rival candidates' struggles to break through.
"I'm sure a lot of bourbon has been drunk around the bars, all talking about what the f--- to do," Carney said.