周一，富尔顿县地方检察官法妮·威利斯发出第四份起诉书今年前总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)被捕，这次是因为与特朗普及其同伙试图推翻佐治亚州2020年选举结果有关的活动。特朗普的总统初选对手中有谁可能赢得共和党提名的实际机会借此机会攻击特朗普?
不算是，不，特朗普领先全国民意调查平均值538领先第二名候选人佛罗里达州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯近40个百分点。然而，就像前三次起诉后一样，在佐治亚州的起诉中，主要是毫无疑问反特朗普的候选人几乎没有获胜的机会。相比之下，可能有微弱机会击败特朗普的候选人——那些在共和党中支持率很高的人——基本上避免攻击领先者，而是寻求法律体系的支持。
潜在的竞争对手大多将愤怒集中在针对特朗普的法律系统的所谓武器化上。“我认为这是政治犯罪化的一个例子，”赛义德·德桑蒂斯他还对利用格鲁吉亚的反敲诈勒索法来追究与政治活动有关的犯罪指控表示怀疑。跟随一个对特朗普的联邦起诉本月早些时候，德桑蒂斯被指控阴谋推翻2020年大选，引起了一些人的关注通过公开声明特朗普在2020年大选中失败——这是他一直避免做的事情。乔治亚新闻之后，德桑蒂斯确实重申了他会是比特朗普更强的人选赢得2024年大选并实施“美国第一”政策。但德桑蒂斯对佐治亚州起诉书的最初反应大致涉及特朗普在2020年选举结果中的行为，表明他不打算在言论上做出重大转变。
科技企业家Vivek Ramaswamy和南卡罗来纳州参议员Tim Scott有时都在两位数的民调中领先，他们也回应了早些时候关于法律系统进一步政治化的评论。周一晚上在市政厅，拉马斯瓦米描述了乔治亚州的指控“通过起诉进行政治化的迫害”，当天早些时候说他会自愿写一份法庭之友的辩护状支持特朗普。拉马斯瓦米此前曾表示他会赦免特朗普，以及提交了信息自由法案申请6月，向司法部寻求与起诉特朗普的决定有关的文件。在爱荷华州博览会上，斯科特被称为最新的起诉“非美国”，认为该法律“被用来对付政治对手。”六月，斯科特描述了司法部对特朗普涉嫌不当处理机密文件的起诉是一个“严重指控的严重案件”，但也是法律系统针对共和党人的。而支持率较低的北达科他州州长道格·伯根提供了相同说辞的更温和版本他认为“人们对两级司法体系的担忧”是“比任何起诉都更大的问题”
当然，完全可以理解为什么这些候选人又一次避免因特朗普的法律纠纷而打击他。赢得共和党初选将需要从一个主要支持特朗普的政党那里吸引支持，而不是通过批评特朗普来疏远支持特朗普的选民。攻击特朗普不会带来什么好处，而在一个特朗普不参选的世界里，接近特朗普将是一种优势。六月份的一项调查显示YouGov/CBS新闻我发现，如果特朗普不能成为被提名人，74%的共和党初选选民会更喜欢“与特朗普相似”的被提名人，而只有26%的人表示他们希望有人“与特朗普不同”此外，三分之二关于共和党人不认为特朗普在2020年大选中的失败是合理的，因此联邦和佐治亚州关于他推翻选举的行动的起诉细节不一定对初选选民有多大影响。
此外，虽然有一些迹象表明特朗普的受欢迎程度已经下降在他被起诉后，他在党内仍然很受欢迎。他在共和党中的净支持率在最近的民意调查中大约是+50;只有德桑蒂斯在这一点上接近他。诚然，像斯科特和拉马斯瓦米这样的候选人远不如特朗普或德桑蒂斯那样知名，这可能允许潜在支持的上限更高。
转到更多反特朗普或怀疑特朗普的竞争者美国前副总统迈克·彭斯最近批评得更为激烈，他在乔治亚州被起诉后的最初评论也有类似的语气。星期三，彭斯拒绝了这个想法佐治亚州2020年的结果被偷了，尽管他也用了一句台词他过去用过注意到特朗普仍然拥有“无罪推定”。尽管如此，彭斯的反应是在本月早些时候就特朗普2020年的行动受到联邦起诉后发表更严厉的评论之后做出的。彭斯说，特朗普向他施压“本质上是为了推翻选举”，并认为任何将自己“凌驾于宪法之上”的人都不应该成为总统。
除了彭斯，竞选中直言不讳的反特朗普候选人也大多重复了他们之前对特朗普的谴责。前阿肯色州州长阿萨·哈钦森最新的起诉书说是特朗普再次“取消资格”担任总统的进一步证据，而前德克萨斯州众议员威尔·赫德说是“这是另一个例子，说明如果特朗普成为共和党提名人，前总统的行李将如何让乔·拜登连任。”不过，前新泽西州长克里斯·克里斯蒂对佐治亚州起诉书的最初评论与他对早期起诉书的回应不同主要集中在他如何看待它鉴于特朗普面临的联邦指控(其中克里斯蒂说他当时并不认为是“政治性的”)。尽管如此，这与其他没有采取反特朗普姿态的共和党人使用的武器化语言相去甚远。
至于我们尚未讨论的两位主要候选人，前联合国大使妮基·黑利和迈阿密市长弗朗西斯·苏亚雷斯都试图走中间路线。海利还没有对佐治亚州的起诉发表公开评论，1但是在预期的指控之前，她试图避免尖锐的批评特朗普的主要立场是，特朗普的法律纠纷分散了美国面临的许多重要问题的注意力。有点类似的是，苏亚雷斯周三表示，最新的起诉是“华盛顿的胜利”，尽管他觉得选民对此不感兴趣，但这仍将继续主导新闻。
总而言之，对特朗普的最新指控没有促使他的任何竞争对手关注他们如何接近特朗普在新闻和共和党初选中的主导地位。然而，这些都不会消失。在可预见的未来，共和党领域的其他人将不得不继续决定如何在他们自己的总统愿望背景下解决特朗普的法律问题。
Trump's Republican Opponents Are Still Refusing To Attack Him — Even After Four Indictments
After former President Donald Trump was indicted for the fourth time on Monday, it’s been mostly anti-Trump candidates with little chance of winning the primary who have criticized him.
SAUL LOEB / AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
On Monday, Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willisissued the fourth indictmentof former President Donald Trump this year, this time for activities related to Trump and associates’ attempts to overturn the 2020 election result in Georgia. Have any of Trump’s presidential primary opponents who might havean actual chance of winning the GOP nominationtaken this opportunity to attack Trump?
Not really, no. Trumpleads FiveThirtyEight’s national polling averageby nearly 40 percentage points ahead over the second-place candidate, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Yet much like after the first three indictments, it’s been the unmistakably anti-Trump candidates with little chance of victory who have mainly dinged Trump over the Georgia indictment. By comparison, the candidates who might have even a remote chance of defeating Trump — those with high favorability numbers among Republicans — largely eschewed attacking the front-runner and went after the legal system instead.
Potentially competitive contenders mostly focused their ire on the supposed weaponization of the legal system against Trump. “I think it’s an example of this criminalization of politics,”said DeSantis, who also expressed skepticism about the use of Georgia’s anti-racketeering statute to pursue alleged crimes related to political activity. Following afederal indictment of Trumpon charges of conspiring to overturn the 2020 election earlier this month, DeSantis raised some eyebrowsby stating publicly that Trump had lost the 2020 election— something he had long avoided doing. And following the Georgia news, DeSantisdid reiterate that he would be a stronger pick than Trumpto win in 2024 and implement “America First” policies. But DeSantis’s initial reaction to the Georgia indictment, which broadly addresses Trump’s behavior over the 2020 election result, suggests that he’s not looking to make a dramatic shift in his rhetoric.
Tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, who have both sometimes polled in the double digits, also echoed earlier comments about the further politicization of the legal system. At a town hall Monday night, Ramaswamydescribed the Georgia chargesas “politicized persecutions through prosecution,” having earlier in the daysaid he would volunteer to write an amicus briefin support of Trump. Ramaswamyhas previously said he would pardon Trump, andfiled a Freedom of Information Act requestin June seeking documents from the Department of Justice relating to the decision to indict Trump. At the Iowa State Fair, Scottcalled the latest indictment“un-American,” arguing that the law was “being weaponized against political opponents.” In June, Scotthad describedthe Justice Department’s indictment of Trump over alleged mishandling of classified documents a “serious case with serious allegations,” but also that the legal system was targeting Republicans. For his part, lower-polling North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgumoffered a milder version of the same rhetoric, arguing that the fact “people are worried about a two-tiered system of justice” is “a bigger issue than any indictment.”
Of course, it’s entirely understandable why these candidateshave once againavoided hitting Trump over his legal troubles. Winning the GOP primary will require threading the needle of attracting support from a mostly pro-Trump party without alienating Trump-supporting voters by criticizing Trump. Attacking Trump brings few positives, whereas proximity to Trump in a world where he’s not running would be an asset. A June survey fromYouGov/CBS Newsfound that, if Trump couldn’t be the nominee, 74 percent of Republican primary voters would prefer a nominee “similar to Trump,” while only 26 percent said they’d want someone “different from Trump.” Additionally,two-thirdsofRepublicans don’t thinkTrump’s loss in the 2020 election was legitimate, so the specifics of the federal and Georgia indictments regarding his actions to overturn the election don’t necessarily hold much sway with primary voters.
Moreover, while there are some signs thatTrump’s favorability has ticked downin the wake of his indictments, he remains quite popular with the party base. His net favorability among Republicansin recent polls is about +50; only DeSantis is close to him on that score. Granted, candidates like Scott and Ramaswamy aren’t nearly as well-known as Trump or DeSantis, which may allow for a higher ceiling of potential support.
Turning to themore anti-Trump or Trump-skeptical contenders, former Vice President Mike Pence has been more critical recently, and his initial comments after the Georgia indictment had a similar tone. On Wednesday,Pence rejected the notionthat the 2020 result in Georgia was stolen, although he also employed a linehe’s used in the pastby noting Trump still has the “presumption of innocence.” Nonetheless, Pence’s reaction comes on the heels of his sterner comments earlier this month after the federal indictment regarding Trump’s 2020 actions.Pence said that Trump pressured him“essentially to overturn the election” and argued that anyone who put himself “over the Constitution” shouldn’t be president.
Beyond Pence, the vocal anti-Trump candidates in the race mostly echoed their previous denouncements of Trump, too. Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinsonsaid the latest indictmentwas further evidence that Trump had “disqualified himself” from holding the presidency again, while former Texas Rep. Will Hurdsaid it was“another example of how the former president’s baggage will hand Joe Biden reelection if Trump is the Republican nominee.” In a departure from his responses to earlier indictments, though, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s initial comments on the Georgia indictmentmostly focused on how he viewed itas “unnecessary” given the federal charges Trump faces (whichChristie saidhe didn’t think were “political” at the time). Still, this was a far cry from the weaponization language used by other Republicans who haven’t embraced an anti-Trump posture.
As for the two major candidates we’ve yet to discuss, both former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and Miami Mayor Francis Suarez have sought to steer something of a middle path. Haley has yet to make a public remark about the Georgia indictment,1but ahead of the expected charges, shetried to avoid sharp criticismof Trump by mostly sticking to a line that Trump’s legal troubles distract from the many important issues facing the country. Somewhat similarly, Suarez said on Wednesday that the latest indictment is a “victory for Washington” that continues to dominate the news even though he felt voters weren’t interested in it.
All in all, the latest indictment of Trump has not prompted any of his rivals to pivot in how they approach Trump’s dominant position in both the news and in the Republican primary. None of this is going away, however. For the foreseeable future, the rest of the GOP field will have to continue to decide how to address Trump’s legal issues within the context of their own presidential aspirations.
